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‘This market is pricing in perfection,' warns Verdence Capital CIO as tariff deadline looms
‘This market is pricing in perfection,' warns Verdence Capital CIO as tariff deadline looms

CNBC

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • CNBC

‘This market is pricing in perfection,' warns Verdence Capital CIO as tariff deadline looms

The market may be trading around record highs, but the Verdence Capital Advisors CIO is worried trouble is lurking. Megan Horneman, who oversees $4.1 billion in assets under management, thinks there's too much complacency around the Aug. 1 U.S. trade deadline. "This market is pricing in the perfect situation," she told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Monday. In addition to tariff concerns, she lists uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policy and overbought conditions from a technical perspective as potential issues. "Once we see that [rate cuts] might be priced off the table, coinciding with the fact that we're not quite sure what's going to happen with the tariff perspective, I think you can see a bit of a valuation correction," said Horneman, who's a former Deutsche Bank senior investment strategist. Horneman is particularly concerned that technical levels are signaling overbought conditions in growth stocks — including Big Tech. "These are things that we think might upset the rally that we're seeing here," she said. Despite her short-term caution, Horneman considers herself a long-term bull and views pullbacks as opportunities. She lists international stocks among her top plays on market weakness. "I'd warn that right now, they're expensive from a valuation perspective [but] cheap compared to the U.S.," she said. "They've been underloved for way too long, and I think you're seeing some of that rotation just begin. I think that can continue." To navigate the uncertainty, her key advice to investors right now: Make sure you're allocated appropriately. "Fast Money" trader Guy Adami also sees concerns, citing the number of retail investors driving recent market gains."Just in terms of valuation, things have gotten a tad frothy here," he said on Monday's show. The S&P 500 closed at record highs every day last week. As of Friday's close, the index is 16% over the past three months while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is up 21% over the same period. The Nasdaq is also atDisclaimer

Media trailblazer Tom Rogers changes ‘raging bull' stance on Netflix, sees worrisome signs
Media trailblazer Tom Rogers changes ‘raging bull' stance on Netflix, sees worrisome signs

CNBC

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • CNBC

Media trailblazer Tom Rogers changes ‘raging bull' stance on Netflix, sees worrisome signs

Former NBC Cable President Tom Rogers is dialing back his bullishness on Netflix. The media trailblazer, who was a self-proclaimed "raging bull" on Netflix, told CNBC's "Fast Money" this week he's starting to worry — and listed competition with free content on YouTube as a headwind. "[Netflix] still [has] more hit shows than all the other streaming services combined, but when you look at the growth of their sub[scriber] base and look at the amount of total engagement time from all viewers they get, the amount of viewing per viewer has gone down some," said Rogers, who's now executive chairman of AI company Claigrid. Netflix saw the largest monthly viewership increase versus its peers in June, according to Nielsen. However, YouTube had 13% of total monthly TV viewership while Netflix had 8%. Rogers' latest take comes after Netflix delivered a positive quarterly report on July 17. "There was nothing wrong with its earnings at all," said Rogers, who is also a CNBC contributor. "But engagement is what drives everything here. The amount of viewing it gets, it drives price increases, which drive programming budget, which drives more great programming." Netflix beat second quarter top and bottom line estimates and raised its full-year guidance. But since its earnings report, the streamer's stock is down about 6% and is now off almost 11% since hitting a record high on June 30. Rogers also predicts artificial intelligence will be a "double-edged sword" for Netflix in the near-term. On the one hand, he said it will aid the streamer's targeted advertising and help cut programming costs. But it also allows independent content creators a leg up — which benefits YouTube. "The line between professional and amateur content is going to get more and more blurry as AI tools in the hands of amateurs allow them to produce things that look incredibly professional," he said. "I think AI in the hands of the creative community of YouTube could create a level of professional programming for YouTube which drives its viewership even further." YouTube's parent company, Alphabet, is up 2% so far this year. Yet, Rogers still considers Netflix maintaining his status as the most valuable media company in the world. However, he said a lag is "something to watch for sure." Netflix spokesperson Emily Goldstein deferred comment to the company's second-quarter earnings call.

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