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Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Mailbag: What do the stats tell us about who wins title rematches like UFC 316?
Merab Dvalishvili won the first fight against Sean O'Malley, but who do the stats favor in UFC title fight rematches? (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC) How often does the loser of the first fight actually win a title fight rematch, and what does that tell us about Sean O'Malley's chances to get revenge against Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 316? Plus, has the UFC outgrown the need to listen to fans? All that and more in this week's mailbag. To ask a question of your own, hit up @benfowlkesmma or @ @justlikelasagna: Learn us a little bit about rematches in title fights and what that says about Suga Sean's chances this weekend. Advertisement I'm afraid it's not great news for Sean O'Malley. I went through these numbers with the help of Michael Carroll from last year ahead of the Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka rematch. In title fight rematches, the winner of the first fight ends up winning the second fight 63.2% of the time. Of course, that was in the summer of 2024. And Pereira won the rematch with Prochazka, which nudged the percentage a little higher. And then Dricus du Plessis won his rematch with Sean Strickland, which nudged it even further. Point is, the winner of the first title fight usually wins the second. In lighter weight classes, where one-punch power seems to be less of a factor, the stats favor the initial winner even more. Advertisement A few years back, our beloved Uncrowned editor-in-chief Shaheen Al-Shatti crunched the numbers ahead of the Francis Ngannou vs. Stipe Miocic rematch. He found that divisions above 170 pounds were much more likely to see a reversal of fortunes. Divisions under 170 pounds, which would include the men's 135-pound class where Saturday's rematch takes place? The loser of the first fight won the second meeting just 12% of the time. Which is to say … yikes. @EyeofMihawk: Is the UFC at all susceptible to fan pressure? The petition circulating to strip Jon Jones, everyone and their mother saying Yair doesn't deserve the title shot, give it to Evloev and make Lopes-Yair — is there a snowball's chance in hell they listen? Short answer: No. I don't think the UFC is very susceptible to fan pressure right now. It is, however, susceptible to money pressure. If the people who fill those UFC coffers — talking about TV rights partners, the cities paying those site fees to bring UFC events to town, to a much lesser extent maybe even sponsors — start voicing some concerns about where things are headed, then we might see a change. The issue is that the UFC and its parent company TKO have figured out so many ways to insulate the business from fluctuations in fan interest. They get paid whether we watch these Fight Nights or don't. They get paid even if we don't buy the pay-per-views or shell out for tickets. Between the site fees and the rights deals, the UFC rakes in money just for putting on an event — any event. This has very predictably skewed the incentive structure away from giving the fans what they want. Advertisement Can that change? Sure, if fans get fed up enough that these other stakeholders start to feel the pinch. But even then it would take a good long while for this giant oil tanker of a company to steer for a new course. @NeedXtoseePosts: After the outpouring of love for Jordan Breen this week could you share what he meant to the wider MMA community It's too much to get into in this meager space, but Jordan Breen was a walking encyclopedia of MMA knowledge. He somehow knew as much about what was going on in the UFC as he did about third-tier Japanese promotions and upcoming Senegalese featherweights. It wasn't like he was doing it to impress anybody, either. He just knew it because he was passionate about the sport and it made sense to him. His radio show on Sherdog was also a bastion of realness at a time when there was almost zero media coverage of MMA. Now we're groaning under the weight of so many podcasts and satellite radio shows and constant social media content producers talking MMA and trying to cozy up to whoever's paying. Breen's show was for hardcore fans who wanted to cut through the bull. It was one of a kind. And so was Jordan. @INCagefighting: Who gets a more competitive fight out of Kayla. Julie or Rocky? Advertisement I think it's probably Julianna Peña, but not by much. That's mostly because I think Kayla Harrison is a big problem for both of them. She's a big problem for basically everybody at women's bantamweight right now, honestly. Harrison's ability to take over a fight right away and dictate every aspect of it gives her such an advantage. To beat her, you either need to have to ability to force her into more uncomfortable territory or else find the gaps exposed by her own aggression. She's not unbeatable by any means. But so far it seems like the biggest threat to her reign of terror is either the scale (making 135 pounds isn't easy for her) or overall career-related attrition (her lone professional loss came when she fought five times in 13 months). A rested, healthy Harrison is a human wood-chipper in this division. @Jietzsche: This Jones thing- It's so out of character for UFC to meet exorbitant pay demands & treat a difficult 'contractor' with effusive deference. So what gives? Is it the upcoming tv deal, lingering Ngannou pettiness, the criticism that will come if they botch another Advertisement I have a hard time thinking it's all due to the looming prospect of a new TV deal for the UFC. If you're telling me that the UFC decided to hold off on the good stuff for an entire year just so it can use it as a bargaining chip to negotiate a new broadcast rights deal, I'd say that's as far down the road as the UFC has ever planned when it comes to matchmaking. If Jon Jones was ready and willing to fight, it would have been booked and announced already. Intentionally keeping him on the shelf at this stage of his career (and with his track record of getting himself into trouble when those hands become idle too long) would be extremely dumb and risky. Windows of opportunity do not stay open for long in fight sports. If you have a chance to make a big fight, you make it now. Later may never come, for a vast array of reasons. Plus, what you're essentially talking about here is a conspiracy theory. What, UFC executives told Jones to go lay low in Thailand while it uses him to negotiate a new deal? And they told themselves that the person they could trust to keep the secret and be a reliable partner in all this is ... Jon Jones?!? I think what's going on is that the UFC doesn't have many good options if Jones won't fight. The rest of the heavyweight division is pretty stagnant. About the only exciting thing you could do with Tom Aspinall, absent a title unification bout with Jones, is to match him up against someone like Alex Pereira, assuming he'd be willing to go up in weight. Advertisement But if it's just a choice between waiting for Jones to get bored or giving up and doing Aspinall vs. TBD? I think the UFC doesn't see enough downside to waiting and seeing. Should Tom wait for a possible fight with John Jones at MSG in November or fight for the belt against Gane in Paris ? (If it was in his power of course) At this point, I'd have to say Aspinall would be foolish to wait for Jones. We saw how that worked for Michael Chandler, right? Jones has done everything except explicitly say the words, 'I'm retired.' He's living his best life. He thinks maybe he'll pop in and out of the sport when he feels like it. He has the wall of victory already framed and finished in his house. He didn't leave any space for an Aspinall fight. Maybe he'll come back at some point (I think he will), but there's no guarantee it'll be for a heavyweight title fight against Aspinall. If the UFC offers Aspinall a choice to wait or fight someone else (assuming it would be for the undisputed title and not more of this interim crap), he should fight and get paid. You don't want to still be calling out the same non-fighter two years from now. It's embarrassing, and at this point we have a lot of data to back that up.
USA Today
04-05-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
UFC on ESPN 67 video: Amazat Bekoev smashes 'TUF' winner Ryan Loder
UFC on ESPN 67 video: Amazat Bekoev smashes 'TUF' winner Ryan Loder Amazat Bekoev now has back-to-back finishes to start his octagon tenure after battering "The Ultimate Fighter" winner Ryan Loder at UFC on ESPN 67. Bekoev (20-3 MMA, 2-0 UFC) made quick work of things Saturday's card at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa, connecting with the hands early and often. He put Loder (7-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC) on the ropes, then didn't stop until a final knockdown led to the TKO finish at the 2:44 mark of Round 1 in the middleweight bout. Check out the replay of Bekoev's handiwork in the video below (via X): After campaigning hard to join the UFC roster, Bekoev made a successful debut at UFC 311 in January, scoring a first-round knockout of Zachary Reese. He followed that up with this finish, and now has some momentum behind his name at 185 pounds. "I know he has high-level wrestling, but this is my time," Bekoev said in his post-fight interview with Michael Bisping. "I don't want to fight anymore on Fight Nights, I want to fight on the big shows. This is my second finish in the first round. Mick Maynard, I told you I will not disappoint you." Up-to-the-minute UFC on ESPN 67 results
Yahoo
09-04-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Mailbag: Where did all the UFC's Fight of the Night bonuses go?
Alexander Volkanovski has a rare chance to recapture a UFC title after two straight losses, but age is a question for the 36-year-old former champ. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC) (Jeff Bottari via Getty Images) What's happened to all the 'Fight of the Night' bonuses at recent UFC events? Can Alexander Volkanovski win back the UFC title and prove that fighters over 35 can still be champs? And how many old dudes is Chase Hooper going to have to fight, anyway? Advertisement All that and more in this week's mailbag column. To ask a question of your own, hit up @benfowlkesMMA or @ @sentientlife4o1: What do you think is up with the UFC not giving Fight of the Night bonuses at its last 4 events? Do you think they're phasing them out or have the fights really been that lackluster? It's a weird choice, right? If the TKO execs have decided to just phase out that bonus altogether for Fight Night events (pay-per-views have still been getting them, though we'll have to wait and see on UFC 314 this Saturday), they should say so and explain the decision. Otherwise it seems like even the people running these events don't think there are any good fights on them. That's not a great look. One thing the 'Fight of the Night' bonuses are good for is sending a message to fans who might have skipped that event. They can look at the bonus results and immediately see which fight is probably worth catching up on. And since there are so many Fight Nights, those are the events that are most likely to go ignored by a lot of the fans. Why send the message that none of these fights was worth watching anyway? Advertisement I refuse to believe it's just that there have been no good fights for four straight events. Having watched them, I'm sure I've seen some fights that were, at worst, pretty good overall. Even so, "Fight of the Night" is a relative term! It doesn't have to be the best fight ever. It just has to be the best fight of that event. If we're prioritizing finishes and individual performances over collective efforts, just change it to a standard finish bonus and be done with it. But also don't do that, because "Fight of the Night" does serve a genuine purpose. @Beastin364: If Volk wins can we finally stop saying that featherweights over 35 are washed? First of all, it's not just featherweights who've struggled in UFC title fights past the age of 35. It's basically all fighters 170 pounds and below. Second, I'd argue that losing a title fight doesn't automatically mean anyone's 'washed.' That term ought to be reserved for the guys who can no longer beat even the mid-level contenders — not the guys who fall just short of being the absolute best. Advertisement Alexander Volkanovski's situation is a little bit different, though. For one thing, he was just a couple months shy of his 35th birthday when he beat Yair Rodriguez. For another, his two recent losses both come with certain caveats. The first one was when he went up in weight on extremely short notice and got knocked out by the world's best lightweight. The second was when he returned from that knockout way too soon and got knocked out by the world's best featherweight. I'm not trying to make excuses for the man, but those two fights alone don't really tell us where he's at. At the same time, nothing about this situation is normal. Most ex-champs with two straight losses don't get a title shot. And if they do, it usually comes against a reigning champ — not a contender who's technically below them in the rankings. It's weird, in other words. But I think that probably favors Volkanovski. This is kind of the best-case scenario for him, and likely the best chance he's ever going to get to have another UFC title reign. @RealFakeSamDunn: What's the best-case scenario for the future of the UFC featherweight division? LA LEYENDA's moving up, Max also, Pitbull is there but he's old, Volk's either at the end of his prime or it's altogether passed, etc. Is it inevitable that the overall 145 talent level simply drops? Advertisement Of all the weight classes, I worry about the future of featherweight least of all. There are plenty of good fighters in that weight range all over the world. We just saw a couple of them in the main event of Saturday's APEX card. We'll see more (well, Jean Silva at least) on the undercard of UFC 314. And while sometimes fighters will move up, they also might move back down when they discover that lightweights are bigger and stronger than they thought. The world has many good athletes around this size. The good news for MMA is that most of the rest of the pro sports universe has little use for them. The UFC isn't competing with the NFL for talent here the way it is at heavyweight or light heavyweight. There may be ebbs and flows, as with all divisions, but there will always be a few good 145-pounders somewhere. @ItKanoli31520: a) is the UFC fumbling it by having Aaron Pico's debut on some random Apex card, and likely not even the main event? He could be fast tracked to contendership, why not give him a platform? and b) what are some of your favorite combat sports books? both fiction and non fiction? As of right now, there's been no official confirmation from the UFC on Aaron Pico's first fight. But we know from past experience that the UFC sometimes likes to take new signees from other organizations and scuff them up a bit in order to, I don't know, prove its dominance in the MMA space or whatever. Advertisement Thing is, fighting a guy like Movsar Evloev could absolutely be a quick way to contendership – if Pico wins. Evloev is a top five featherweight right now. You beat that guy in your debut and it really sends a message. Having to send that message in the APEX, though, would be kind of a waste. @JedKMeshew: Do you think Chase Hooper is mad at his dad and that's why he keeps fighting old guys? Instead of black shirts and emo music he chose to fight father proxies in THE OCTAGON? To be honest, I appreciate what the UFC is doing with some of these Chase Hooper matchups. What do you do with a fighter who's 25 but looks 16? Give him an opponent with some grey in his beard. In this matchup with the 41-year-old Jim Miller, it works not only visually but also stylistically. Young weirdo grappler against the neighborhood submission artist who seems like he warms up by mowing the lawn in an old pair of stained green Asics? Yes, please. I genuinely want to see how this one plays out. I'm also a little stunned that Miller is as high as a 6-1 underdog on some sportsbooks. Have we completely forgotten about the phenomenon known as old man strength?!? @WorldsWorstHero: What was the first moment in your life that had you like, "damn, I'm old!"? And how old were you when this moment occurred? Lol Advertisement You know how you'll be drifting off the sleep and then think you're falling or something and jolt yourself awake? I hurt myself doing that once. Like actually injured myself and needed a few days to recover. So that was pretty sobering. Now I'm at the age where my kids regularly talk about pop stars and celebrities who frankly sound totally fictional to me. These people simply cannot be real. That feels like a new and even more alienating phase of being totally old. At least this one is peaceful. I hear about Doja Cat or whoever and I know it is simply none of my business.
Campaign ME
04-04-2025
- Business
- Campaign ME
UFC picks Meta as Official Fan Technology Partner in multiyear agreement
Mixed martial arts organisation UFC has announced a multiyear partnership with Meta to leverage its technologies to deliver unprecedented engagement with hundreds of millions of UFC fans around the world. As UFC's first Official Fan Technology Partner, Meta will collaborate with UFC to use Meta's technology platforms, services, and products, including Meta AI, Meta Glasses, Meta Quest, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Threads, to immerse fans deeper into UFC content. In addition, the company will become the Official AI Glasses Partner of UFC and will work with UFC to creatively use their groundbreaking AI glasses in compelling ways at UFC events. 'I've had a lot of great partners over the years that have helped us grow this sport, but Mark and his team at Meta are going to do things that will blow away UFC fans,' said UFC President and CEO Dana White. 'Meta has the greatest minds in tech and they are going to take fan engagement to the next level. We've already started to work on some innovations with Meta around a new fighter rankings system that I'll be sharing soon. The next few years will be an absolute game changer for fans of this sport.' Meta's CEO and Founder Mark Zuckerberg also commented on the new partnership. 'I love this sport and I'm looking forward to working with the UFC to let fans experience it in new ways,' he said. As the Official Fan Technology Partner of UFC, Meta will be integrated into UFC assets with extensive activations in all Pay-Per-Views and Fight Nights, including brand placement in the world-famous Octagon, numerous broadcast features, and creative in- arena fan experiences.
The Independent
03-04-2025
- Sport
- The Independent
Britain's next UFC champion? Lerone Murphy takes crucial step in Josh Emmett clash
Britain has a serious UFC title contender on its hands – and it may not be who you think. Manchester featherweight Lerone Murphy has not been spoken about nearly enough when it comes to the country's top-level prospects in the UFC. Undefeated at 14-0-1, 'The Miracle' doesn't know what it's like to lose as a pro and boasts impressive scalps in his last two fights: Dan Ige and Edson Barboza. He returns to action in the main-event slot this weekend against featherweight's most-feared puncher Josh Emmett, a fighter famed for sending the ever-outspoken Bryce Mitchell into convulsions with one deadly right. However, as was the case for his previous outing against MMA icon Barboza, Murphy is back fighting at the fan-starved UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The venue initially housed UFC events during the pandemic days, now stages many Fight Nights, and given its distinct lack of atmosphere, it is an unenviable location for fighters trying to make their mark in the sport. Murphy hasn't yet had much of an issue with the Apex. His dominant decision victory over Barboza in May 2024, which was also the headliner, earned Fight of the Night honours. Nevertheless, Murphy has had enough of fighting in front of nobody – and if he beats Emmett, he wants a homecoming title shot in Manchester. 'I'll be asking for a title shot for sure,' Murphy told The Independent. 'I believe this is the No 1 contender fight. I would love that [title fight] in the UK. I've not fought in the UK now in nearly two years, so it'd be good to get back in front of the home fans and have my family there and whatnot, that'd be amazing. 'I missed out on the last Manchester card because I fought a five-round fight maybe six weeks before. I missed out on that card but hopefully I get to fight and headline a card there. That would be the main goal.' If it were up to Murphy, he would have thrown down with Emmett two weeks ago, having eagerly expressed a desire to fight on the UFC London card at the O2 Arena. The event was built around former welterweight champion Leon Edwards, whose main event against Sean Brady did not go to plan as 'Rocky' failed to bounce back from losing his belt to Belal Muhammad last summer. Even if it meant sacrificing his five-round fight with Emmett, Murphy was still keen to compete in front of a partisan London crowd – but with Emmett refusing to enter enemy territory, a neutral venue was instead landed on. 'I asked for London,' Murphy revealed. 'Josh Emmett didn't want to go to London, so that's why we're in the Apex. 'With guys like Josh Emmett, he's a big name in the US, he's a legend. He doesn't have to do certain things if he doesn't want to, and obviously the home crowd would've played into my hands.' Featherweight has considerably opened up since former champion Ilia Topuria relinquished the belt to move up a division, with the 28-year-old now looking to write himself deeper into UFC legend by dethroning unshakeable lightweight champ Islam Makhachev. While at one point it seemed featherweight was destined to be ruled by a reign of terror in an era of Topuria dominance, that is now not the case, with a new champion set to be crowned at UFC 314 just seven days after Murphy's fight. 'The Miracle' will be keeping a keen eye on the event's headliner between former champion Alexander Volkanovski and rising star Diego Lopes, intent on challenging whoever gets their arm raised next. But even without Topuria around, Murphy insists the division is still stacked in quality, hailing 145lb as the strongest in the promotion. 'Ilia is obviously next level, a great fighter and a great champion. But I still believe everybody else is just as good,' he added. 'You've got Volkanovski in there, you've got Lopes in there, you've got Patricio Pitbull who's just come over. The featherweight division is the best division in the world, so regardless of if Ilia is there or not, there's always good competition in there anyway. 'Me and Emmett, I believe we are the best after Volkanovski and Lopes and have the most to get the championship.'
