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CNET
07-05-2025
- Business
- CNET
Mortgage Rate Forecast for May: Can Rates Fall Without Fed Cuts?
Mortgage rates can change daily and even hourly. Tharon Green/CNET The Federal Reserve may be stand its ground on interest rates, but the outlook for mortgage rates is still on shaky footing. Since early spring, average 30-year fixed rates have been moving between 6.5% and 7%, with no clear direction forward. Despite concerns over a potential recession and pressure from the White House to reduce interest rates, the central bank voted to leave its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged on May 7 to better evaluate the impact of the administration's trade and austerity measures. Though the Fed's policy changes have a ripple effect on all short-term lending rates, the central bank doesn't directly set the rates on home loans. Mortgage rates are primarily driven by movement in the bond market, specifically on the 10-year Treasury yield. Bond yields and mortgage interest rates rise and fall depending on how new economic data and policy changes shift market speculation and risk assessment, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. Given contentious debates over tariffs and President Trump's political posturing against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, investors are still divided over the central bank's projected path of rate cuts in 2025. Right now, markets are anticipating anywhere between two and four rate cuts this year, with the first coming this July. Early in the year, many economists optimistically predicted that mortgage rates would gradually decline, potentially reaching 6% by the end of 2025. But economic uncertainty — sparked by Trump's aggressive tariff regime and fears of higher inflation and a potential recession — have thrown a wrench in those forecasts. With so many unknowns in today's economy, experts say there are plausible scenarios for both upward and downward movement in rates by the end of the year Why is the Fed holding off on interest rate cuts? The central bank is responsible for maintaining maximum employment and containing inflation via adjustments to its benchmark interest rate. Usually, when prices go up too fast (inflation), the Fed raises interest rates to slow price growth and reduce spending by making borrowing more expensive. Then, when the economy shows signs of weakness and unemployment rises, the Fed tends to lower rates to boost demand and stimulate growth. "Coming into the year, the Fed was prepared to cut rates if the labor market began to weaken, since it seemed like inflation risk had mostly eased," said Alex Thomas, senior research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting. "Now, given the potential inflationary impact of wide-reaching tariffs, the Fed will be more hesitant to cut until the labor market weakens significantly.' Trump's aggressive tariff agenda has created a dilemma for the Fed. On one side, tariffs act like a supply shock that makes prices go up, leading to more inflation, said Brett Ryan, senior economist at Deutsche Bank. On the other side, tariffs can slow down the economy and threaten jobs, Ryan said. Since the Fed can't address both sides of its dual mandate at once, it will have to choose between keeping inflation in check and avoiding a severe recession. Can mortgage rates still fall in 2025? The big question hanging over the housing market is whether rates will rise due to tariff-induced inflation or fall due to a recession. 'The rapidly evolving tariff policy landscape has already prompted the Federal Reserve to recalibrate its outlook, revising up its forecasts for inflation and revising down its outlook for growth and employment this year,' said Kushi. Typically, bad economic news tends to bring good news for mortgage rates. With a recession in 2025 looking more likely, rates could drop. The worry of a downturn can push mortgage rates down as investors often flock to safer investments like US Treasury bonds, which lowers long-term yields. However, given declining confidence in the US economy, that might not happen this time. The most recent economic reports don't yet reflect a surge in unemployment, but layoffs and cutbacks can take time to appear in the data. The figures economists and the Fed rely on tell us what happened in the past, whereas investors act on what they anticipate for the future, said Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire. Even if a recession brings down mortgage rates, the relief might be short-lived or irrelevant for households facing job losses and financial hardship. Buy now? Or wait? Today's rates may seem high compared to the 2% rates of the pandemic era. But experts say getting below 3% on a mortgage is unlikely without a severe economic downturn. If you're waiting for mortgage rates to come down before buying, keep in mind that the large-scale economic issues affecting the housing market are beyond your control. "Trying to time everything perfectly is a losing proposition. Rates could go up or they could go down," said Gregory Heym, chief economist at Brown Harris Stevens. "The question is: Do you want a home?" If the answer is yes, experts recommend focusing on two key fundamentals: Make a homebuying budget and stick to it: Creating a realistic homebuying budget can help you decide if you can handle the costs of homeownership, and provide you with some figures for how large your mortgage should be. Shop around for mortgage rates: Each home loan lender offers different mortgage rates and terms. Comparing offers from multiple lenders can help you negotiate a better rate. If you can't snag a low rate but are ready to buy, you can always refinance down the road. Watch this: 6 Ways to Reduce Your Mortgage Interest Rate by 1% or More 02:31 More on today's housing market
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Yahoo
CEO allegedly choked fellow cruise ship passenger over dance floor dispute: FBI
A California CEO is facing federal charges after surveillance footage shows him choking a fellow cruise passenger following a verbal spat, according to the FBI. Mortgage lending company First American Financial CEO Kenneth DeGiorgio, 53, allegedly attacked a man while vacationing on the Resilient Lady of Virgin Voyages while the ship was traveling in international waters off Martinique on Monday. First American Financial and Virgin Voyages did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital's request for comment. Federal prosecutors allege that DeGiorgio choked a man, identified by the initials M.A., in the ship's cocktail lounge, while saying, "I'll f---ing kill you," according to court documents obtained by Fox News Digital. Cruise Ship Fearing Pirates Warns Passengers To Turn Off All Lights In Cabin The assault allegedly occurred after DeGiorgio's wife, Nichol, asked M.A. to stop dancing barefoot, telling him, "Look, we are all grown-ups here, can you put your shoes on?" Read On The Fox News App M.A. reportedly replied, saying, "Shut up, you f---ing b----." Surveillance footage shows DeGiorgio crossing the dance floor and grabbing the man, holding him by the neck while dragging him to the floor, according to the complaint. Norovirus Sickens Over 200 Cruise Ship Passengers On Month-long Voyage Ship authorities contacted the FBI upon arriving in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and DeGiorgio was ordered to be confined to his stateroom by the ship's captain. In an interview with law enforcement, Nichol DeGiorgio said that M.A. "never touched her," and took responsibility for the incident, claiming she should not have asked the man to put his shoes on. DeGiorgio is charged with assault within maritime and territorial jurisdiction of the United States. The U.S. Department of Justice did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital's request for comment. In a statement to the New York Post, DeGiorgio's legal team said the CEO had "responded to the actions of an individual who harassed his wife, making her feel threatened and intimidated," adding, "although charged with a simple misdemeanor, Mr. DeGiorgio looks forward to being absolved of any wrongdoing."Original article source: CEO allegedly choked fellow cruise ship passenger over dance floor dispute: FBI
Fox News
04-04-2025
- Fox News
CEO allegedly choked fellow cruise ship passenger over dance floor dispute: FBI
A California CEO is facing federal charges after surveillance footage shows him choking a fellow cruise passenger following a verbal spat, according to the FBI. Mortgage lending company First American Financial CEO Kenneth DeGiorgio, 53, allegedly attacked a man while vacationing on the Resilient Lady of Virgin Voyages while the ship was traveling in international waters off Martinique on Monday. First American Financial and Virgin Voyages did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital's request for comment. Federal prosecutors allege that DeGiorgio choked a man, identified by the initials M.A., in the ship's cocktail lounge, while saying, "I'll f---ing kill you," according to court documents obtained by Fox News Digital. The assault allegedly occurred after DeGiorgio's wife, Nichol, asked M.A. to stop dancing barefoot, telling him, "Look, we are all grown-ups here, can you put your shoes on?" M.A. reportedly replied, saying, "Shut up, you f---ing b----." Surveillance footage shows DeGiorgio crossing the dance floor and grabbing the man, holding him by the neck while dragging him to the floor, according to the complaint. Ship authorities contacted the FBI upon arriving in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and DeGiorgio was ordered to be confined to his stateroom by the ship's captain. In an interview with law enforcement, Nichol DeGiorgio said that M.A. "never touched her," and took responsibility for the incident, claiming she should not have asked the man to put his shoes on. DeGiorgio is charged with assault within maritime and territorial jurisdiction of the United States. The U.S. Department of Justice did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital's request for comment. In a statement to the New York Post, DeGiorgio's legal team said the CEO had "responded to the actions of an individual who harassed his wife, making her feel threatened and intimidated," adding, "although charged with a simple misdemeanor, Mr. DeGiorgio looks forward to being absolved of any wrongdoing."
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
CEO accused of choking a fellow cruise passenger after the man allegedly danced barefoot at a bar aboard the ship and insulted the CEO's wife
The CEO of California-based title insurance and settlement business is facing a criminal charge after he allegedly assaulted another passenger on a Virgin Voyages cruise he was taking with his wife. Kenneth D. DeGiorgio's lawyers told news outlets he was defending his wife. The 53-year-old CEO of First American Financial, Kenneth D. DeGiorgio, is facing a criminal charge for allegedly assaulting a passenger aboard a Virgin Voyages cruise he was on with his wife, after the man allegedly took his shoes off to dance. According to reports, DeGiorgio's wife, Nichol DeGiorgio, had asked the man to put his shoes back on while on the dance floor at a bar on the ship called On The Rocks. 'Look, we are all grown-ups here—can you put your shoes on?' Nichol DeGiorgio asked, according to the New York Times. In response, the male passenger allegedly insulted DeGiorgio and a video allegedly showed the passenger giving her the middle finger. According to NBC, a video showed DeGiorgio walk over the passenger and allegedly start choking him. The cruise-ship passenger told authorities that DeGiorgio also allegedly threatened him during the assault, saying, 'I am going to f—ing kill you.' Lawyers for DeGiorgio told news outlets the CEO was protecting his wife, who felt threatened and intimidated. 'Although charged with a simple misdemeanor, Mr. DeGiorgio looks forward to being absolved of any wrongdoing.' DeGiorgio remained in his cabin following the alleged assault until the cruise docked in San Juan the following day. DeGiorgio has served as CEO of First American Financial since February 2022, previously serving as president with oversight of the title insurance, speciality insurance, and data analytics businesses. The $6 billion company granted DeGiorgio a raise in February, bringing his salary to $1 million. His total pay was valued at $7.8 million in 2024. First American Financial did not immediately respond to a request for comment. This story was originally featured on
