Latest news with #FoundationForDefenseOfDemocracies
Fox News
06-07-2025
- Politics
- Fox News
Iranian supreme leader appears in public for first time since conflict with Israel
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was seen in public for the first time since the beginning of Israel's war against Iran on Saturday. Khamenei had been secluded in a security bunker for the entirety of the conflict, though President Donald Trump claimed to know his location at the time. Khamenei attended a mourning ceremony on the eve of Ashoura on Saturday, waving to a large crowd but not making any statement. Trump asserted during the 12-day war with Israel that the U.S. knew Khamenei's location, but would not kill him, "at least for now." Khamenei made his first public statement in days on June 26, shortly after a cease-fire between Israel and Iran began. He said in a pre-recorded statement that Tehran had delivered a "slap to America's face" by striking a U.S. air base in Qatar, and warning against further attacks by the U.S. or Israel on Iran. In reality, none of Iran's missiles hit their mark on the Al-Udeid Air Base. Despite the U.S. strike on three nuclear facilities across Iran last month, experts say the regime is still bent on developing nuclear weapons. "Repair, reconstitute and rebuild is going to be the modus operandi of the Islamic Republic of Iran," Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Iran Program told Fox News Digital. "It just depends on how are they going to be doing it? While flirting with the international community? Are they going to go dark totally altogether?" "All of this remains to be seen," he added. Spokesman for the Iranian regime, Fatemeh Mohajerani, confirmed this week that the Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites had been "seriously damaged" following the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear program last month. Questions remain over the extent of damage that was incurred, as well as skepticism over whether Iran was able to move any enriched uranium or centrifuges away from the heavily guarded sites prior to the strikes. Though the Trump administration said last week that it had "obliterated" the three facilities it struck, and has fervently rejected reports suggesting that Iranian officials may have been able to transfer some elements of the regime's nuclear program, Israeli officials confirmed this week that they are continuing to monitor the situation closely. Experts in the U.S. and Israel have said they believe Iran is still assessing the extent of the damage from the "bunker buster" bombs, and that the regime will look to recover and repair what it can — meaning it may be looking to buy time. "No doubt, the regime will still have a diplomatic strategy designed to rope-a-dope anybody, and to find as much time as possible for this government to do that," Ben Taleblu said.
Fox News
06-07-2025
- Politics
- Fox News
Iran still wants a nuclear weapon despite ‘serious damage' from US, Israeli strikes: expert warns
Iran is preparing its next step in what one security expert warns remains its chief objective: developing a nuclear weapon. "Repair, reconstitute and rebuild is going to be the modus operandi of the Islamic Republic of Iran," Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Iran Program told Fox News Digital. "It just depends on how are they going to be doing it? While flirting with the international community? Are they going to go dark totally altogether? "All of this remains to be seen," he added. Spokesman for the regime, Fatemeh Mohajerani, confirmed this week that the Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites had been "seriously damaged" following the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear program last month. Questions remain over the extent of damage that was incurred, as well as skepticism over whether Iran was able to move any enriched uranium or centrifuges away from the heavily guarded sites prior to the strikes. Though the Trump administration said on Wednesday that it had "obliterated" the three facilities it struck, and has fervently rejected reports suggesting that Iranian officials may have been able to transfer some elements of the regime's coveted nuclear program, Israeli officials confirmed this week that they are continuing to monitor the situation closely. Experts in the U.S. and Israel have said they believe Iran is still assessing the extent of the damage from the "bunker busting" bombs, and that the regime will look to recover and repair what it can — meaning it may be looking to buy time. "No doubt, the regime will still have a diplomatic strategy designed to rope-a-dope anybody, and to find as much time as possible for this government to do that," Ben Taleblu said. The Iranian regime this week suggested it remained open to negotiations with the U.S. after President Donald Trump signaled that the talks could begin as soon as next week, though multiple Iranian officials said that that timeframe was overly ambitious. "I don't think negotiations will restart as quickly as that," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a CBS News interview. "The doors of diplomacy will never slam shut." But the regime also took steps to further hinder the UN nuclear watchdog — which is tasked with tracking all nation's nuclear programs — and suspended all interaction with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Wednesday. That same day, the State Department condemned the move, and spokesperson Tammy Bruce said it was "unacceptable that Iran chose to suspend cooperation with the IAEA at a time when it has a window of opportunity to reverse course and choose a path of peace and prosperity." Iran has limited IAEA access in the past and Ben Taleblu argued Tehran will likely look to do this again as it attempts to hold on to any bargaining chip it can. "The Islamic Republic of Iran's next step, and likely most dangerous capability right now, is its diplomatic capability," the Iranian security expert argued. "This is the capability of the regime to either enter negotiations with a weak hand and leave with a strong hand, or try to prevent a military victory of its adversaries from becoming a political victory. "If negotiations do take place between the U.S. and the Iranians, be they direct or indirect, the Iranians are going to be dangling IAEA access. This is already their most important weapon," he added. Ben Taleblu explained that using the IAEA as a bargaining chip not only enables Iran to play for time as it looks to re-establish its nuclear program, but to sow division in the U.S. by creating uncertainty. "By diminishing the monitoring and by circumscribing and even cutting IAEA access to these facilities, the regime is trying to make America have to rely on intelligence alone," he said. "And as you see from the very politicized debates over the battle damage assessment, relying on intelligence alone without sources on the ground inspecting the sites, inspecting the facilities, documenting the fissile material, can lead to drastically different conclusions being taken by similar but not the same intelligence organizations or representatives." Ultimately, Iran is not going to give up on its nuclear ambitions, Ben Taleblu warned, noting that Tehran's security apparatus completely changed during its war with Iraq in the 1980s. "Everything that we face from the regime that is a security threat was started then — the ballistic missile program, the drone program, the maritime aggression, the transnational terrorist apparatus and the nuclear program all have their origins in the 1980s," he said. "By resurrecting this nuclear program, the Islamic Republic was not engaging in a science fair experiment. "The Islamic Republic was seeking an ultimate deterrent," Ben Taleblu continued. "It was seeking an ultimate deterrence because it had a vision for what the region and the world should look like, and it was willing to put foreign policy muscle and the resources of its state behind that vision." The expert on the Iranian regime warned that Iran's 40-year "obsession" with developing its nuclear program to achieve its geopolitical aims is not going to change because of U.S. military intervention.
News.com.au
26-06-2025
- Politics
- News.com.au
Russia's ploy to virtue signal during the Middle East crisis is dripping with irony
As the world fixated on the sudden eruption of hostilities between Israel and Iran, a quieter, more calculating player loomed just offstage. Analysts have warned about how the Kremlin has leveraged chaos in the past for its own benefit. But Russia's elites played their same old tune as missiles flew over the Middle East this week. In the span of just a few days, what began as tit-for-tat missile exchanges between Israel and Iran escalated into what alarmists dubbed 'WWIII'. It was a solid gold opportunity for the Kremlin to divert global attention from its own misdeeds, while also posturing as a so-called peacemaker. The United States, despite initial hesitations, was eventually drawn into the fray to assist in defending Israeli airspace and then de-escalate the situation 'diplomatically' with a devastating B-2 stealth bomber assault. But in the background, Vladimir Putin quietly worked a different angle. Russia jumped at the opportunity to pose as the adult in the room and appear 'above the fray' — all while exploiting the fog of war to reduce public focus on Ukraine and test the boundaries of US restraint. This is the opinion of Dr Ivana Stradner, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who claims Russia 'never misses an opportunity to exploit a crisis'. 'Russia benefits from the situation in the Middle East to divert [the] West's attention from Ukraine,' Dr Stradner told That strategy came into sharp focus as the Kremlin loudly condemned Israeli strikes, all while continuing its relentless three-and-a-half-year assault on sovereign Ukraine. Moscow then boldly positioned itself as a mediator in the conflict, using the UN as its springboard. 'The Kremlin is trying to portray itself as a reasonable voice that wants to stop 'WWIII' and act as a pillar of stability in the Middle East,' Dr Stradner continued. 'Moscow is also using the UN to flex its diplomatic muscles, as Russia has a veto there. 'Ironically, Putin has also offered to mediate the conflict, but he is neither willing nor able to be an effective mediator. Putin wants to pander to President Trump to strengthen his position in negotiations on Ukraine and to portray himself as a reliable partner to Washington.' While the deception might fall flat among those keenly aware of Russia's advanced misinformation tactics, the Kremlin's propaganda train chugs on, hoping to win the hearts of those undecided on who to trust in the twisted theatre of world politics. But even more telling is what Russia didn't do. Despite its longstanding security relationship with Iran, which includes the presence of Russian technicians at Iranian nuclear sites, Moscow made no military moves to support Tehran directly. Instead, as Dr Stradner points out, 'Russia already abandoned its allies Armenia and Syria, and now Iran. The West should remind Putin's allies across the world that with friends like Putin, they do not need enemies.' Trump fires up at 'N-word' Whilecertain Russian assets were virtue signalling, others were jumping on the opportunity to put a fright up the West. Former President and Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev ominously warned that Iran could just source their nuclear weapons from allies. 'A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads,' Medvedev wrote on X. Those comments riled up Donald Trump, who accused Medvedev of playing with the 'N-word' a little too haphazardly. 'Did I hear Former President Medvedev, from Russia, casually throwing around the 'N word' (Nuclear!), and saying that he and other Countries would supply Nuclear Warheads to Iran?' Trump wrote on Truth Social. 'The 'N word' should not be treated so casually. I guess that's why Putin's 'THE BOSS.'' But Dr Stradner says it's all hot air. 'Medvedev's words are a textbook case of reflexive control,' she explained, referring to Russia's longstanding strategy of seeding confusion and fear to paralyse decision-making. 'For Putin, nuclear weapons are cognitive weapons.' Dr Stradner stressed that the Trump administration and Western powerbrokers must avoid reacting to intentionally inflammatory tactics. 'Nobody should take Medvedev's words seriously,' she said. 'It is pure propaganda.' Russia's nuclear chest-beating has become a predictable tool to distract, distort, and deter. It may not intend to launch missiles, but it absolutely intends to shape how others behave through the threat of escalation. Alliances tested but not broken While many view the Russia-Iran relationship as purely strategic, Dr Stradner sees a deeper ideological connection forming between the two nations. 'They are like friends with benefits,' she said. 'They have different interests in Central Asia, but they have a mutual enemy: the United States, and that's their bond.' More than just co-operation on drones or ballistic missiles, the partnership reflects a shared desire to bypass Western-led institutions and promote a traditionalist, anti-liberal order. 'There is an ideological alliance defending traditionalist, religious, and anti-liberal values,' Dr Stradner noted. While put under heavy strain this week, Russia's alliances with anti-West nations are growing. Russian nationalists have advocated for an 'Axis of Aggressors' that includes Iran, China, and North Korea, connected through projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor, an initiative that would provide a logistics lifeline to sidestep Western trade routes. Then there's the BRICS alliance, consisting of major superpowers like China, India and Russia. Mr Putin riled up the Mr Trump camp late last year at a BRICS summit in Moscow, calling for a 'multipolar world order' in front of 20 leaders from powerful allied nations. They had gathered in the Russian capital to discuss sweeping plans, including the development of a BRICS-led international payment system. Russia has touted the platform as an attractive alternative to Western-led international organisations like the G7. 'The process of forming a multipolar world order is underway, a dynamic and irreversible process,' Mr Putin said at the official opening of the summit.
Fox News
24-06-2025
- Politics
- Fox News
Experts gauge success of 'bunker buster' bombs dropped by US on Iran nuclear sites
While President Donald Trump has asserted that the military's weekend strike against Iran "completely and totally obliterated" its nuclear weapon-making capabilities, there are still questions about whether the ground-penetrating "bunker buster" bombs used to attack Iran's key enrichment sites were enough to stop the rogue country from developing a nuclear bomb. A report released last week by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) explains that the special "bunker buster" bombs the U.S. used in Iran over the weekend that everyone is talking about, known as GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, or MOPs, might not be able to fully destroy the Iranian nuclear facility at Fordow. Fordow, which Trump said was "gone" now following the strike, is considered central to Iran's nuclear weapon-making capabilities. Meanwhile, a satellite imagery expert relayed to Reuters that confirmation of below-ground destruction could not be determined via pictures alone, because the facility's hundreds of centrifuges are too deeply buried in order to make an accurate determination. "I actually have a little bit of a rosier view on things," Andrea Stricker, Deputy Director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program, told Fox News Digital. "I think that because of the massive damage and the shock wave that would have been sent by 12 Massive Ordnance Penetrators at the Fordow site, that it likely would render its centrifuges damaged or inoperable." Stricker noted that centrifuges are "very delicate" and the kind of shock wave coming from the MOPs would at least put them "out of commission." She also said if any centrifuges did survive the blasts, it would be likely that they would be inaccessible by Iranian authorities for several months. "Underground facilities present a difficult target, not only for destruction, but also in terms of follow-on battle damage assessment," added Wes Rumbaugh, a fellow in the Missile Defense Project at CSIS. "The United States and Israel will likely need to invest additional intelligence resources to determine the true extent of the damage from the U.S. strikes and their long-term effect on Iranian nuclear infrastructure." In addition to Fordow, the U.S. used its MOPs at an Iranian enrichment facility called Natanz, where, according to Stricker, at least 1,000 centrifuges are located, as well as an above-ground enrichment plant and other labs capable of making uranium metal. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) the above-ground labs had previously been damaged by Israeli airstrikes, destroying the plant's electrical infrastructure. Meanwhile, satellite imagery following the U.S.'s decision to drop two MOPs on Natanz show two craters located where the site's underground enrichment facilities are reportedly located. However, it is still not clear if the U.S. attacks completely destroyed the underground nuclear infrastructure. Either way, Striker noted, the significant damage to Iran's Natanz facility will create a "bottleneck" in the country's supply chain for weapons-grade uranium, which will significantly impact Iran's nuclear weapon-making capabilities. The third site targeted by the U.S.'s airstrikes was Iran's Isfahan nuclear enrichment facility, but MOPs were not used at that site. Instead, the U.S. used Tomahawk cruise missiles, which the IAEA confirmed caused significant damage. Satellite imagery reportedly shows Isfahan's above-ground facilities were taken out, but it remains unclear the extent of the damage to the site's underground sections. One of the biggest outstanding questions regarding the success of the United States' weekend strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, is whether authorities in the country were able to move their nuclear materials from the targeted sites before the U.S. launched its missiles at them. But, according to CSIS's Bumbaugh, even if that is the case and Iran moved their nuclear materials, the chaos would still make it hard for Iran to "sprint to a nuclear weapon." "Having to move these assets to new facilities likely degrades Iran's immediate ability to sprint to a nuclear weapon but makes it likely that Iran will go to great lengths to conceal their new location," Bumbaugh said. "This movement of nuclear infrastructure or material would make follow-on strikes difficult if intelligence is unable to find all of the new hidden facilities." "There's a lot of alarmism right now about whether Iran could sprint to a bomb," Stricker added. "Israel has done so much damage to their ability to make nuclear weapons [and] the weaponization supply chain. So the facilities, the components that [Iran] would need, the equipment, and then up to 14 nuclear scientists, I think, if they did want to build a bomb quickly, they're really stymieing – they don't have access to all of all that, all of those assets they would need. And so, I think in the short to medium term, we don't need to be overly concerned that they could get there." Fox News Digital reached out to both the Pentagon and the Air Force to glean more details about the success of the weekend strike on Iran, but no new information was gleaned. An Air Force spokesperson did confirm to Fox News Digital that, in total, U.S. forces deployed 75 "precision guided weapons" targeting Iran over the weekend, including 14 30,000 pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators. On Monday, Rafael Grossi, head of the IAEA, appealed for immediate access to the targeted Iranian nuclear sites in order to assess the damage that is likely "significant," according to the United Nations.
Japan Times
24-06-2025
- Business
- Japan Times
China helpless as Middle East war craters regional leverage
China has been able to do little more than stand back and watch as war between its key partner Iran and Israel harms its hard-fought leverage in the Middle East, analysts say. Beijing has sought to frame itself as a mediator in the region, facilitating a 2023 rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran and portraying itself as a more neutral actor in the Israel-Palestinian conflict than its rival the United States. And its position as the largest purchaser of Iranian oil has served as a crucial lifeline for Tehran as its economy is battered by crippling international sanctions. But as Israel and Iran engaged in an unprecedented exchange of attacks and the United States struck key targets on Iranian soil in the past week, Beijing has offered little beyond calls for de-escalation. "Beijing has offered Tehran no real help — just rhetoric that paints China as the principled alternative while it stays safely on the sidelines," said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. China, he said, "sticks to rhetoric — condemnations, U.N. statements, talk of 'dialogue' — because over-promising and under-delivering would spotlight its power-projection limits." "The result is a conspicuously thin response that underscores how little real heft China brings to Iran when the shooting starts." 'Strategic' friendship China — alongside its "no limits" partner Russia — has long been a key backer of Iran, deepening ties in the wake of the United States' withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal in 2018. Chinese President Xi Jinping described relations as "strategic" in a 2023 meeting with Iran's then-president Ebrahim Raisi, and backed Tehran in its fight against "bullying." Liu Qiang, a retired Chinese senior colonel, was even more explicit in an article on the academic website Aisixiang this month. "Iran's survival is a matter of China's national security," said the director of the Academic Committee of the Shanghai International Center for Strategic Studies. Beijing, he insisted, must take "proactive measures" in light of the recent war to ensure that Tehran "will not be broken by the military conflict" or "jointly strangled by the U.S. and Israel." Analysts say Beijing's ties with Tehran are central to its efforts to ensure a regional counterbalance against both the United States and Israel as well as the Gulf States. "Iran fits into Beijing's broader campaign to counterbalance U.S.-led hegemony and to a lesser extent NATO encroachment," said Tuvia Gering, nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub. Those efforts have gone into overdrive following blows to other "Axis of resistance" players since the start of the Gaza war — the collapse of Bashar Al-Assad's rule in Syria and the degradation of Hamas and Hezbollah in fighting with Israel. "Beijing has sought to prevent a total unraveling of Iran's regional role," Gering said, pointing to Chinese efforts to resurrect the nuclear deal. 'Little leverage' China has condemned recent U.S. strikes on Iran and called for parties in the region, "especially Israel," to de-escalate. And it has called for a political solution to help a declared ceasefire hold. Fighting last month between India and Pakistan saw Beijing furnish its long-time allies in Islamabad with state-of-the-art military gear. Analysts don't expect China to extend the same courtesy to its comrades in Tehran, given the risk of direct confrontation with the United States. "Iran needs more than statements at the U.N. or missile components," said Andrea Ghiselli, a lecturer at the University of Exeter. "It needs air defenses and fighter jets, which are things that China could provide but would require much time to be put into use — not to mention the likely extremely negative reaction by Israel and, especially now that is directly involved, the U.S.," he added. The United States has urged China to use its influence on Iran to help deter its leaders from shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil and gas. But Ahmed Aboudouh, an associate fellow with the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Program, was skeptical that Beijing has the leverage. "China's position in the Middle East after this conflict" has been badly affected, he said. "Everybody in the Middle East understands that China has little leverage, if any, to play any role in de-escalation."
