6 days ago
The (not so) little leagues turn heads while majors sit by
Analysis: With a little over a year until the campaign proper begins, all eyes are on the smaller – but no longer minor – parties.
The Act Party kicked off AGM season yesterday with its so-called Free & Equal Rally. National and the Greens will both hold their AGMs next month, followed by NZ First in September and rounded out by Labour in November.
Heading into the next election, every vote will count. Polling is consistently showing tight margins, so each party is looking to define itself; to stand out.
On Sunday, Act attempted to do just that – walking the line between showing how it's different from its other right-wing coalition partners, without undermining the three-way union that still has more than a year to run.
With Act and NZ First going head-to-head on the anti-woke vote, David Seymour called in the big guns in the form of the American author and free speech advocate James Lindsay.
The controversial commentator, who's drawn attention for referring to the Pride flag as the 'flag of the hostile enemy', decried mātauranga Māori as a weapon used by the left to drive a wedge into NZ society, drew lines between policies used in Stalin's Soviet Union and modern day Aotearoa, and spoke about the importance of private property rights. He also received spontaneous applause for reminding the audience that 'communists are not good people'.
Seymour hasn't defended Lindsay's comments on rainbow communities, but has defended his right to express such views.
And with Lindsay addressing the anti-woke agenda, the Act leader was able to focus his speech on the party's track record in Government, his view of economic and health policy, and the path ahead.
Seymour also announced party policy to fast track approval for overseas supermarket chains looking to set up in New Zealand. He believes this fast tracking (along with a guaranteed liquor licence) is the best way to ramp up competition in the market.
The Act leader also used his speech to defend the coalition's policy of interest deductibility for landlords, saying this group had been scapegoated under Labour. Seymour told the crowd he knows it's a political risk to defend big business. 'The good thing is, I'm impervious to political risk.' So far, it seems to be true.
Though Seymour didn't get his Treaty Principles Bill passed, he is getting a lot of what he wants from this coalition arrangement – just look at the Regulatory Standards Bill.
But so has NZ First. And after shedding the title of Deputy Prime Minister, Winston Peters has openly declared he's shifted into campaign mode for the second half of the term.
Seymour says the best form of campaigning is delivering for Kiwis. This may be a response befitting the Deputy Prime Minister, but that doesn't mean he's going to be a wallflower for the next 12-plus months.
All four minor parties know it'll come down to the wire next year and whether they say it or not, they're all in campaign mode – it shows markedly in their finessing of social media staffing and strategies.
The recent, shocking, death of Te Pāti Māori MP Takutai Tarsh Kemp also shows there is fresh talent lining up on the left, ready to step up to the plate. Well-known broadcaster Oriini Kaipara will stand for Te Pāti Māori in the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election, and the party's lawyer Tania Waikato says she will be throwing her hat in the ring next year – though she's yet to confirm her party of choice.
But while the smaller parties go head to head, National and Labour are grappling to come to terms with this changing game. The legacy parties appear to be standing a step back from the fray, biding their time to see what happens next – both with their opposition and their allies.
The risk is they wait too long and lose the ability to set the narrative in the way they've always done. The major parties are still major, but the growing might of the small four means they can't take their platform or influence for granted.
At some point – perhaps during AGM season, which conveniently falls more or less a year out from the election – National and Labour will need to throw themselves onto centre field. That includes unveiling policy that can help turn heads back to the centre.
