Latest news with #Freshpet
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Utility sector slips, Joby stock jumps, Freshpet downgrade
Here are some of the stories Wall Street is watching on Wednesday, May 28. Utility stocks (XLU) are slipping on concerns about higher interest rates. Joby Aviation (JOBY) shares are soaring after closing a $250 million investment from Toyota. Freshpet (FRPT) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen. Stay up to date on the latest market action, minute-by-minute, with Yahoo Finance's Market Minute. It's time for your Yahoo! Finance Market Minute. US stocks hovering near the flat line as investors cautiously count down to NVIDIA's earnings report. The chipmaker's results set to be a test for big tech amid tariff uncertainty. The utilities sector sliding here, leading losses among the S&P 500 sectors. Utilities, typically considered more interest rate sensitive, it has lagged amid the recent rise in Treasury yields, with the 30-year once again crossing above 5%. And Joby Aviation shares surging after receiving a $250 million investment from Toyota. It's part of a previously announced strategic investment from Toyota. Funds are aimed at supporting certification and commercial production of Joby's electric air taxi. And Freshpet shares under pressure here, as it gets hit with a downgrade at TD Cowen with a price target of $96. That firm noting concerns of a deceleration in retail sales growth. And that's your Yahoo! Finance Market Minute. For more on what's trending, scan the QR code below. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Utility sector slips, Joby stock jumps, Freshpet downgrade
Here are some of the stories Wall Street is watching on Wednesday, May 28. Utility stocks (XLU) are slipping on concerns about higher interest rates. Joby Aviation (JOBY) shares are soaring after closing a $250 million investment from Toyota. Freshpet (FRPT) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen. Stay up to date on the latest market action, minute-by-minute, with Yahoo Finance's Market Minute. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT): A Bull Case Theory
We came across a bullish thesis on Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) on Substack by Greg ┃The Elevator Pitch. In this article, we will summarize the bulls' thesis on FRPT. Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT)'s share was trading at $81.11 as of May 7th. FRPT's trailing and forward P/E were 270.37 and 78.12 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. guidocava/ Freshpet is reshaping the $54 billion U.S. pet food market by dominating the rapidly expanding fresh pet food segment with its premium, human-grade offerings and distinctive vertically integrated distribution strategy. Since pioneering the category in 2014, Freshpet has grown its market share in fresh pet food to a commanding 96%, while the segment itself has expanded from just 2% of the total pet food market to 4–6% today. The company's moat is built on its unique network of over 36,000 branded refrigerators placed in grocery and pet stores across the country—refrigerated infrastructure that not only reduces reliance on slotting fees but also ensures visibility and accessibility in high-traffic retail locations. This physical footprint gives Freshpet a durable advantage over competitors and enables a more profitable, high-margin product line for retailers. The brand has built strong customer loyalty by delivering visible health benefits for pets, such as improved energy, digestion, and breath. Given the challenges involved in switching a pet's diet, this leads to unusually high customer retention rates once conversion to fresh food occurs. Despite this enviable position, Freshpet's share price has significantly lagged, mostly due to past concerns over capacity bottlenecks and a softening end-market environment. However, these issues are now subsiding, and the company appears poised for a major operational and financial turning point. With enhanced manufacturing capabilities coming online, operating leverage is accelerating, and EBITDA is projected to compound at a 36% CAGR through 2027. Crucially, Freshpet is on the verge of producing sustainable free cash flow for the first time, yet its stock continues to trade approximately 45% below its recent highs. This disconnect between fundamentals and market sentiment offers an attractive entry point. While frozen, direct-to-consumer rivals like Farmer's Dog have gained some traction, their unit economics are weighed down by costly cold-chain logistics and a lack of scale profitability, reinforcing Freshpet's superior retail-based model. The broader landscape further supports Freshpet's dominance. The pet food market is largely controlled by incumbents like Mars and Nestlé, which have been reluctant to venture into the operational complexity of fresh offerings. Although Colgate-Palmolive's acquisition of Australia's Primo100 hints at renewed interest from major CPG players, replicating Freshpet's scale and infrastructure would require enormous investment. With nearly $1 billion in expected 2024 revenue and a sticky customer base, the company enjoys a rare mix of structural growth, staple-like defensiveness, and a defensible moat. Its valuation, currently at 22.1x EV/EBITDA on 2025 estimates, compares favorably to slower-growth peers like Colgate (22.9x) and Nestlé (20x). When viewed alongside high-growth, asset-intensive companies like Chipotle or CAVA, which trade at premium multiples, Freshpet appears undervalued given its trajectory. Supporting this thesis, a DCF model suggests substantial upside potential. Assuming management executes on its 2027 targets—including ramped capacity utilization and margin expansion to 24% EBIT—Freshpet could deliver roughly 35% upside from current levels, or 26% adjusting for dilution from convertible debt. This outlook positions Freshpet as a meaningful free cash flow generator with long-term re-rating potential as operational maturity is achieved. However, risks remain. The stock has been volatile, and its decline following a modest Q4 earnings miss—down nearly 20% in a single day—highlights investor sensitivity. The broader macro backdrop, including a weakening consumer environment, could also weigh on discretionary pet food spending. Competition is heating up, with Colgate's acquisition signaling that legacy players may eventually target the segment more aggressively. Additionally, the company's fortunes are closely tied to the leadership of Billy Cyr and Todd Thompson; any disruption in execution poses key man risk. Quality control is another critical area—any breach, even with a vertically integrated model, could damage brand equity and slow momentum. Activist activity has previously introduced uncertainty, with Jana Partners in 2022 pushing for a sale and triggering market instability. Still, the company successfully defended its independence and refinanced via convertible debt, preserving strategic flexibility. Overall, Freshpet represents a compelling investment opportunity within a niche that combines consumer brand loyalty, structural industry tailwinds, and meaningful operating leverage. With improving fundamentals, a loyal and growing customer base, and undervalued cash flow potential, the current stock price offers an asymmetric risk/reward setup for long-term investors. Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 40 hedge fund portfolios held FRPT at the end of the fourth quarter which was 38 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of FRPT as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than FRPT but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock. Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Freshpet And 2 Other Stocks That Might Be Priced Below Fair Value
As the U.S. stock market experiences a pause following a nine-session winning streak, investors are closely watching developments around tariffs and Federal Reserve decisions, which have introduced uncertainty into economic forecasts. In this environment, identifying stocks that might be priced below their fair value can offer potential opportunities for investors seeking to navigate the current market conditions. Name Current Price Fair Value (Est) Discount (Est) FB Financial (NYSE:FBK) $44.62 $89.12 49.9% MINISO Group Holding (NYSE:MNSO) $18.53 $36.62 49.4% MetroCity Bankshares (NasdaqGS:MCBS) $28.33 $55.11 48.6% Owens Corning (NYSE:OC) $144.46 $284.31 49.2% German American Bancorp (NasdaqGS:GABC) $38.57 $74.67 48.3% Pure Storage (NYSE:PSTG) $47.58 $93.52 49.1% Ready Capital (NYSE:RC) $4.44 $8.67 48.8% HealthEquity (NasdaqGS:HQY) $91.42 $179.14 49% Live Oak Bancshares (NYSE:LOB) $26.93 $52.48 48.7% Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE) $5.45 $10.87 49.8% Click here to see the full list of 176 stocks from our Undervalued US Stocks Based On Cash Flows screener. Let's take a closer look at a couple of our picks from the screened companies. Overview: Freshpet, Inc. manufactures, distributes, and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe with a market cap of approximately $3.72 billion. Operations: Freshpet generates revenue through the production and sale of natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats across the United States, Canada, and Europe. Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 13.9% Freshpet's recent earnings report showed a net loss of US$12.7 million for Q1 2025, contrasting with a net income of US$18.6 million the previous year, yet it remains undervalued based on discounted cash flow analysis. Trading at US$79.09, below its fair value estimate of US$91.81, Freshpet is expected to see significant annual profit growth of 36.5% over the next three years despite slower revenue growth projections compared to market expectations. Insights from our recent growth report point to a promising forecast for Freshpet's business outlook. Click to explore a detailed breakdown of our findings in Freshpet's balance sheet health report. Overview: REV Group, Inc. designs, manufactures, and distributes specialty vehicles and related aftermarket parts and services in North America and internationally, with a market cap of approximately $1.81 billion. Operations: The company's revenue segments include Specialty Vehicles, generating $1.68 billion, and Recreational Vehicles, contributing $640.20 million. Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 27.3% REV Group is trading at US$35.64, significantly below its estimated fair value of US$48.99, indicating undervaluation based on discounted cash flow analysis. Despite a decrease in first-quarter sales to US$525.1 million and net income dropping to US$18.2 million, earnings are projected to grow substantially by 23.76% annually over the next three years, outpacing the broader U.S. market's growth expectations while maintaining strong operational execution and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. Upon reviewing our latest growth report, REV Group's projected financial performance appears quite optimistic. Get an in-depth perspective on REV Group's balance sheet by reading our health report here. Overview: Warby Parker Inc. operates in the United States and Canada, offering eyewear products, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.05 billion. Operations: The company's revenue is primarily derived from its Medical - Optical Supplies segment, totaling $771.32 million. Estimated Discount To Fair Value: 28.9% Warby Parker, trading at US$16.96, is significantly undervalued with a fair value estimate of US$23.87 according to discounted cash flow analysis. Despite a net loss reduction to US$20.39 million for 2024, the company anticipates robust revenue growth between 14% and 16% in 2025, bolstered by strategic partnerships like the Target collaboration. Earnings are projected to grow substantially by 76.4% annually over three years as profitability improves beyond market averages. The growth report we've compiled suggests that Warby Parker's future prospects could be on the up. Click here and access our complete balance sheet health report to understand the dynamics of Warby Parker. Unlock our comprehensive list of 176 Undervalued US Stocks Based On Cash Flows by clicking here. Got skin in the game with these stocks? Elevate how you manage them by using Simply Wall St's portfolio, where intuitive tools await to help optimize your investment outcomes. Take control of your financial future using Simply Wall St, offering free, in-depth knowledge of international markets to every investor. Explore high-performing small cap companies that haven't yet garnered significant analyst attention. Diversify your portfolio with solid dividend payers offering reliable income streams to weather potential market turbulence. Fuel your portfolio with companies showing strong growth potential, backed by optimistic outlooks both from analysts and management. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Companies discussed in this article include NasdaqGM:FRPT NYSE:REVG and NYSE:WRBY. This article was originally published by Simply Wall St. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
We Think Freshpet's (NASDAQ:FRPT) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve
When companies post strong earnings, the stock generally performs well, just like Freshpet, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:FRPT) stock has recently. Our analysis found some more factors that we think are good for shareholders. We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free. To properly understand Freshpet's profit results, we need to consider the US$18m expense attributed to unusual items. While deductions due to unusual items are disappointing in the first instance, there is a silver lining. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Freshpet took a rather significant hit from unusual items in the year to March 2025. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items made its statutory profit significantly weaker than it would otherwise be. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates. As we mentioned previously, the Freshpet's profit was hampered by unusual items in the last year. Because of this, we think Freshpet's underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! And the EPS is up 59% over the last twelve months. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of Freshpet. This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Freshpet's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
