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NBC News
19 hours ago
- Politics
- NBC News
How Trump's poll numbers stack up: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail. In today's newsletter, Adam Edelman and Scott Wong take a look at New York Democrats' attempts to respond to Texas Republicans' redistricting effort — and how it illustrates the lack of options at the party's disposal ahead of the 2026 midterms. Meanwhile, Steve Kornacki looks at Trump's first- and second-term approval ratings and what they mean in terms of setting up the next election. — Scott Bland New York Democrats unveil their own mid-decade redistricting scheme, targeting future elections By Adam Edelman and Scott Wong As Texas Republicans slowly move forward with plans to redraw congressional maps mid-decade, Democrats in New York on Tuesday plowed ahead with their own scheme to counter any GOP redistricting efforts. But the effort faces a long, arduous path forward and wouldn't be scheduled to go into effect for years, illustrating the limited options at Democrats' disposal as they hunt for ways to counter the GOP redistricting play in Texas. Legislative Democrats in the blue stronghold unveiled a bill that would allow state lawmakers in Albany to conduct mid-decade redistricting — but only if another state were to do it first. The proposal would, if enacted, effectively set up the prospect of a national redistricting tit-for-tat between Republicans and Democrats, with control of the House of Representatives in Washington potentially on the line. However, there are key differences between what's happening in New York and what's happening in Texas, including the timing of any actual map changes. Texas Republicans are looking to immediately enact new district boundaries for the 2026 elections. The bill in New York, which is technically a legislatively referred constitutional amendment, would allow the Legislature to redraw congressional districts if another state engages in mid-decade redistricting. It would have to pass the Legislature in two consecutive sessions — and then still be approved by voters in a ballot measure. In theory, that means that whatever new maps that would be created wouldn't be in place until the 2028 elections. Analysis by Steve Kornacki Like the first Trump presidency, the second one is playing out in a polarized political atmosphere. But while it isn't massive, there is a key difference thus far in how the public perceives Trump's leadership. Our running average of independent public polling finds that the president's job approval rating is at 43%. This is a low number historically — but it is also a notch higher than at this point in 2017, the first year of Trump's first term: Our average consists of 13 polls released within the past two weeks, and it's worth noting that this list includes a Gallup survey that put Trump's approval at 37%, which is 3 to 8 points lower than every other poll in the average. So Trump is faring a bit better than he than he did eight years ago (or not as badly, depending on how you want to look at it). As the 2026 midterm landscape takes shape, a key question is what level Trump's job approval needs to be for Republicans to have a chance of keeping control of the House, where a net shift of just three seats would cost them. With the electorate highly sorted along partisan lines and so many more seats now safely in the hands of either party, the battleground is unusually small. The GOP doesn't have to make inroads into otherwise Democratic terrain to keep the majority, which means the party could theoretically get by in 2026 without a broadly popular Trump. Democrats limited their losses to a handful of House seats in the 2022 midterms despite then-President Joe Biden's low job approval rating (44% in the exit poll), bolstering the GOP's hopes on this front. If Trump can remain above his first-term levels and boost his current standing a few points, the playing field could be very competitive next year. Of course, if his approval moves a few points in the other direction, the story could be very different. It was around this point on the calendar that several presidents' numbers shifted abruptly. In George W. Bush's second term, chaos in Iraq, controversy over the federal response to Hurricane Katrina and his doomed nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court sent his approval rating into a tailspin from which it never rebounded. And at this point four years ago, Biden's average approval sat at 53%. But in short order, the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan played out, Biden's standing sank, and it never recovered. That having been said, abrupt and dramatic shifts in his image haven't been the story for Trump during the 10 years he has occupied the national political stage. This is a president, and a man, who most people long ago made their minds up about. Most people, but not all.
NBC News
2 days ago
- Politics
- NBC News
Trump counters Netanyahu on 'real starvation' in Gaza: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail. In today's newsletter, NBC News reporters from across the world got the latest on how the Trump administration is responding to the hunger crisis in Gaza and how President Trump contradicted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today. Separately, it's only mid-2025 but key developments in the 2026 races across three states are already shaping next year's fight for the Senate. Read on for more. — Scott Bland Trump speaks on 'real starvation' in Gaza President Donald Trump did something notable Monday — he broke with Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a prominent way, over Netanyahu's comment that there is 'no starvation in Gaza.' Speaking in Scotland, Trump said that the U.S. would set up food centers in Gaza as 'we have to get the kids fed,' NBC News' Chantal Da Silva writes. Trump said he had seen images of Palestinians on TV and that 'those children look very hungry.' He later added that the scenes were 'real starvation' and that 'you can't fake that.' His views were echoed by Vice President JD Vance, who in response to a question from NBC News' Henry Gomez on a trip to Canton, Ohio, said the Trump administration was 'very worried about the humanitarian problem in Gaza' and wanted to make sure that starving children got food. The comments from the president, a firm ally of Netanyahu, came amid mounting global outrage over rising deaths from malnutrition amid Israel's military offensive on the territory. The Israel Defense Forces yesterday started carrying out limited pauses in fighting in three populated areas of Gaza for 10 hours a day. But aid groups have warned that the trickle of aid entering the enclave is not enough to stave off famine. 'This is progress, but vast amounts of aid are needed to stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis,' United Nations Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher said in a statement. Speaking on the sidelines of a meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at his golf resort in Turnberry, Scotland, Trump said that the U.S. would be working with its European partners to address the crisis in Gaza. He offered few other details about the plan. By Bridget Bowman The battle for the Senate in 2026 is taking shape, with key candidates launching (or ruling out) campaigns in recent days. Democrats still face an uphill climb through pro-Trump territory to net the four seats they would need to get the majority, but they got a boost today when former Gov. Roy Cooper announced he is running for the open North Carolina seat in the Senate. Democrats haven't won a Senate race there since 2008, and Trump won North Carolina by 3 points in 2024. But Democrats view Cooper as a strong contender with a winning record and some cross-partisan appeal. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is expected to jump in on the Republican side to replace retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis. Meanwhile, Republicans aren't content to defend their majority; they want to expand it, setting their sights on Michigan and Georgia, where the Republican primary fields have developed in the last week. In Michigan, where Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga announced last week that he would not run for Senate, effectively clearing the field for former Rep. Mike Rogers, who has the backing of Senate Republican leaders. Democrats, meanwhile, have multiple candidates vying for the party nod. In Georgia, GOP Rep. Mike Collins announced today that he is running for Senate, saying it's 'time to send a trucker to the U.S. Senate to steamroll the radical left' — a nod to his trucking company. Collins' entrance is the latest sign that Republicans will have a primary fight on their hands in the race against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. GOP Rep. Buddy Carter is also running (and pouring in his own money). But the field did shrink last week when state Insurance Commissioner John King ended his campaign after meeting with GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, according to the Atlanta Journal Constitution. The paper reported that Kemp is maneuvering behind the scenes to boost former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley's potential Senate bid. One final Senate note: While South Carolina is not necessarily on the Senate battleground map, a crowded GOP primary is also brewing as Sen. Lindsey Graham runs for re-election. NBC's Allan Smith reports today that Paul Dans, an architect of Project 2025, is expected to challenge Graham, who is already facing a primary challenge from former Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer. 🗞️ Today's other top stories ✈️ Vice visit: Vice President JD Vance dropped by a steel factory in Canton, Ohio, to trumpet the White House agenda — namely a 'big, beautiful bill' that polls show most voters don't like. It gave a glimpse of how Vance will be deployed in next year's midterm election campaigns. Read more → 🚨 First on NBC: Republican Sen. Josh Hawley introduced legislation today to provide tariff rebate checks of at least $600 per adult and child to American families, similar to the stimulus checks the government distributed during the Covid pandemic. Read more → 🤝 A bipartisan welcome: Linda McMahon and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received a distinctly warm welcome over the weekend at a bipartisan summit of governors — including from Democrats. Read more → 🚢 Tariffs update: A new reality is settling in for the global economy: President Donald Trump's tariffs — set at levels once considered mostly unthinkable — are here to stay. Read more → 🗳️ 2026 watch: Nevada's attorney general is challenging Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo — who's seen as the most vulnerable Republican governor up for re-election next year. Read more → 🌈 On the road: The Human Rights Campaign, the country's largest LGBTQ rights organization, is taking its LGBTQ equality message on the road with a multicity tour focused on changing more hearts and minds, particularly in red states. Read more →
NBC News
6 days ago
- Politics
- NBC News
As lawmakers leave Washington, Democrats declare an 'Epstein recess': From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail. In today's edition, we dive into how Democrats are continuing to put Republicans on Capitol Hill in a tough spot on the Epstein files. Plus, Jonathan Allen explores the potential power shift the saga has revealed in the GOP-led House. — Adam Wollner As lawmakers leave town, Democrats declare an 'Epstein recess' As the House prepared to leave Washington for its summer recess, Democrats were united around one goal: forcing Republicans over and over again to confront the Epstein issue. Kyle Stewart and Syedah Asghar report that across several committees Wednesday, Democrats brought up amendments on whether the government's files on the late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein should be released. It's part of a broader effort by Democrats to capitalize on a pain point for Republicans, a rare moment when President Donald Trump appears to be out of step with his base. Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., ultimately canceled the House's final day of votes before recess after Democrats ground a key organizing committee to a halt with Epstein amendments. (More on that below.) Members now head home to their districts for what Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., called 'the Epstein recess.' The flurry of Democratic amendment offerings in the House succeeded in one case Wednesday. A motion by Rep. Summer Lee, D-Pa., to compel the Justice Department to release files tied to Epstein was approved in a House Oversight subcommittee hearing. A committee spokesperson later said the subpoena will be issued but did not provide timing. Lee's motion attracted the votes of three Republicans, who joined with five Democrats to pass it. In the Senate: Sens. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., and Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., sparred over competing Epstein-related resolutions on the Senate floor this afternoon, Brennan Leach reports. Gallego accused House Republicans of 'fleeing' D.C. to punt on accountability on Epstein. 'What we're simply wanting to do here is give [Trump] cover,' Mullin said, accusing Democrats of using the Epstein files to 'go after' the president. And in the Senate Judiciary Committee, Sens. John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Cory Booker, D-N.J., argued over a resolution to force the release of the Epstein files, which Booker ultimately withdrew, Frank Thorp V notes. At the White House: Meanwhile, Trump and his aides have settled on silence as a strategy to stamp out criticism of his refusal to release files detailing the federal government's investigation of Epstein, according to a senior administration official and Republicans familiar with the White House's thinking. Jonathan Allen, Matt Dixon, Henry J. Gomez, Allan Smith and Natasha Korecki report that in a break from Trump's usual crisis communications template — which emphasizes an all-hands-on-deck approach to defending him on television and on social media — the Epstein case has been met with more restraint from the White House. Trump himself has signaled that he doesn't want members of his administration talking about the matter nonstop, a person close to the White House told NBC News. And White House aides have made it clear that no one in the administration is allowed to talk about Epstein without high-level vetting, according to a senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The latest: Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, Ghislaine Maxwell and Maxwell's attorneys met in a conference room inside the U.S. attorney's office in the federal courthouse in Tallahassee, Michael Kosnar reports. The Epstein saga reveals a potential power shift in the House Analysis by Jonathan Allen House Speaker Mike Johnson is getting battered by his own right arm — the Rules Committee. The panel, which controls which measures receive votes on the House floor, rebelled against the Louisiana Republican this week as GOP leaders tried to stop lawmakers from demanding the release of the Justice Department's Jeffrey Epstein files. At an impasse, and unable to move forward with any legislation, Johnson sent the House home early for its August recess. It seems like the Epstein matter has been delayed rather than killed. But on a broader level, the Rules Committee revolt represents a significant potential power shift in the chamber. For more than 60 years, the panel has been considered an arm of the speakership — with the majority-party's leader handpicking its chair and members. In 1961, the committee, then dominated by the chamber's bipartisan conservative bloc, was its own rogue source of power. The chairman, Rep. Howard Smith, D-Va., opposed newly elected President John F. Kennedy's New Frontier agenda — especially its civil rights plank. Then-Speaker Sam Rayburn, a Texan, wanted to help Kennedy and forced a crucial vote on the House floor to pack the committee with three additional members — two Democrats and Illinois Republican Elmer Hoffman — who were amenable to civil rights. In a nail-biter that consumed the Capitol and national news pages at the time, Rayburn beat Smith on the floor, 217-212, and broke the committee's stranglehold. Over decades, the committee not only lost its independence, it became the speaker's tool. But conservative Republicans in recent years have forced GOP leaders to appoint more of their own to the ranks of the committee's roster, and the seeds of that play for power are now blooming. History suggests that the less power the speaker has, the more likely the House is to pass bills — or kill them — based on the sentiments of the majority of House members, rather than the diktats of the majority party's leadership. It's too early to say that the pendulum is swinging back toward independence for the committee, but this week's activity shows that it is stirring. 🗞️ Today's other top stories 👀 Paying a visit: Trump used a rare visit to the Federal Reserve to renew his pressure on Chair Jerome Powell, telling reporters that costs to renovate the Fed's buildings were exorbitant. Read more → 🔴 Rallying the base: Republican operatives are planning to use the prospect of Trump facing a third impeachment if Democrats win control of the House to motivate their base in the midterms. Read more → 🗳️ 2026 watch: Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley intends to run for Senate in North Carolina and would have the White House's full support, a source familiar with the matter told NBC News. Lara Trump also announced she would not run for the seat. Read more → 🗳️ 2026 watch, cont: Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers announced he will not seek a third term next year, a move that will set off a wide-open race to replace him in one of the nation's most closely divided battleground states. Read more → 🔀 Staff shakeup: Virginia Republican Winsome Earle-Sears has hired a new campaign manager as she tries to find her footing in this year's gubernatorial race. Read more → ⚖️ SCOTUS watch: The Supreme Court blocked an appeals court ruling that would gut a key provision of the Voting Rights Act. Read more → 🏫 Trump v. Columbia: Columbia University will pay $200 million to the federal government to restore the majority of funding that was cut by the Trump administration over allegations it violated anti-discrimination laws. Read more → ➡️ Heading toward the exits: Antonio Gracias, a high-ranking DOGE volunteer who was simultaneously managing nearly $2 billion in assets for nine public pension funds, has left the government. Read more → 📝 Pen to paper: Trump signed an executive order prohibiting 'third party, pay-for-play' payments to college athletes and another aimed at removing homeless populations in cities.
NBC News
7 days ago
- Politics
- NBC News
How Trump is shaping the midterm map: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail. In today's edition, we take a look at how President Donald Trump is steering GOP lawmakers away from statewide bids with an eye on protecting the House majority. Plus, Andrea Mitchell breaks down the latest chapter in the Trump administration's attempts to shift attention away from the Epstein files. — Adam Wollner How Trump is shaping the midterm map A trio of Republican members of Congress have in recent days declined to seek a higher office, developments that could not only help their party avoid messy statewide primaries, but shore up battleground districts as they aim to protect their fragile House majority in 2026. And in all three cases, President Donald Trump played a key role. New York: After toying with a gubernatorial bid for months, GOP Rep. Mike Lawler announced today he would not challenge New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and instead run for re-election. The decision comes as a relief to Republicans, who feared Lawler's Hudson Valley district — one of three they represent that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 election — would be even more at risk without an incumbent on the ballot. Trump and GOP leaders had been trying to steer Lawler away from the governor's race, with the president even endorsing him for re-election in May before he made up his mind. Lawler said on ' Meet the Press NOW ' that he met with Trump, who 'offered his perspective that he believes the right thing to do is to run for re-election.' 'But ultimately it was my decision,' Lawler added. Lawler's move could also clear the way for Rep. Elise Stefanik, a Trump ally who has been weighing a gubernatorial run after her nomination to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations was pulled earlier this year. Stefanik said today she'd announce her plans after this fall's elections. Michigan: Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga also announced today he would not run for the Senate, averting a primary clash with former Rep. Mike Rogers in the swing state. Huizenga said he made the decision 'in consultation with President Trump.' But notably, he did not say whether he'd run for another term in his southwest Michigan district, which the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates as 'likely Republican.' Still, the announcement is welcome news for Rogers and the Senate GOP leaders who are supporting him as he seeks the seat Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is vacating. Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate in the race, although he is expected to back Rogers soon, two Republican sources told NBC News. Iowa: Earlier this month, GOP Rep. Zach Nunn passed on a bid for Iowa governor after speaking with Trump. Nunn, whom Trump praised as a 'team player,' is instead running again in his southwest Iowa district, which he won by 4 points last year and is expected to be among Democrats' top targets next year. Gov. Kim Reynolds' decision to not seek re-election could lead to a crowded Republican field. One of Nunn's colleagues, Rep. Randy Feenstra, who represents a safer district, is exploring a bid. Looking ahead: Plenty of challenges still await Republican leaders and Trump, who has been steadily rolling out endorsements throughout the year, as the midterm map takes shape. Heading into the summer congressional recess, they will work to ensure that incumbents in key states and districts run for re-election. And they are still searching for candidates in critical Senate races in Georgia and North Carolina. North Carolina: Speaking of the Tar Heel State, Democrats are poised to score a prized recruit for the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis. Former Gov. Roy Cooper is set to enter the race, according to two sources familiar with his plans. The latest chapter in Trump's distraction strategy President Donald Trump and his Cabinet have been busy this week declassifying reports and levying a flurry of controversial accusations. The timing has aroused suspicions of a larger strategy. Case in point: Today's appearance by the head of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, in the White House briefing room to amplify Trump's unfounded accusation that former President Obama committed 'treason' to rig the elections in 2016 and 2020. Treason is defined as attempting to overthrow the government by waging war against the state, or materially aiding its enemies. Trump is basing his charge on a widely discredited 2020 Republican House intelligence report that excluded Democratic committee members, differing from an earlier, bipartisan and unanimous Senate report led by then-Intelligence Committee Chairman Marco Rubio — now, of course, Trump's secretary of state and national security adviser. Still, Gabbard has referred Obama for possible criminal prosecution, creating headlines despite no indication of an error in the intelligence assessments or wrongdoing. Even if there were, Obama would likely have immunity based on last year's Supreme Court's decision that presidents cannot be prosecuted for offenses while in office. Plus, Trump's own special prosecutor found no reason to file charges after a three-year investigation. Also striking was the sudden release of secret files on Martin Luther King Jr. The files had been under a court-ordered seal since 1977, but Trump signed an order in January to take steps to make them public. On Monday, thousands of pages were released with no advance notice — while King's family was still reading them, hoping to redact unsubstantiated claims about MLK's personal life. Critics said the White House was resurrecting old conspiracy theories to distract from the furor over Trump's failure to release the Epstein files. Adding to the cacophony was the president's social media exhumation of a settled dispute over the name of Washington's NFL team. Known for almost a century as the 'Redskins,' in 2022 the team was renamed the 'Commanders' to satisfy many Native American tribes. But now Trump is threatening to block the team's return to Washington from the suburbs if it doesn't reclaim its old name. That would be a nonstarter with local officials who have to approve the team's move — and hardly a distraction to diehard D.C. football fans. 🗞️ Today's other top stories ⚖️ Epstein fallout, part 1: A federal judge in Florida ruled that the court's 'hands are tied' in releasing federal grand jury transcripts from 2005 and 2007 in connection with an investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. Read more → 📃 Epstein fallout, part 2: The House Oversight Committee subpoenaed Ghislaine Maxwell for a deposition to occur from prison in Tallahassee on Aug. 11. Read more → ☑️ Epstein fallout, part 3: A House Oversight subcommittee voted to subpoena the Justice Department for its complete Epstein files, with the names of victims redacted. Read more → ⚖️ SCOTUS watch: The Supreme Court allowed Trump to fire members of the Consumer Product Safety Commission, a federal agency set up by Congress to be independent of political pressures. Read more → 🇯🇵 We have a deal: Trump said that his administration reached a deal with Japan, one of the largest U.S. trading partners, to lower its tariff rate to 15% as part of a sweeping trade agreement. Read more → 🔎 New probe: The State Department said it launched an investigation into Harvard University's compliance with the government-run visa program for international students. It's the latest effort by the Trump administration to prevent the university from enrolling international students. Read more → 🗽 New frontiers: The calls from some Republicans to strip Zohran Mamdani's citizenship are sparking alarm about Trump weaponizing denaturalization. Read more → 🗳️ 2025 watch: This year's gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey will provide an initial test of how Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' plays on the campaign trail. Read more → 🇺🇦 Protests in Ukraine: Ukrainians took to the streets over a law signed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that curbs the country's top two anti-corruption agencies. Read more →
NBC News
22-07-2025
- Politics
- NBC News
The Epstein saga continues to affect Washington: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail. Happy Tuesday! In today's edition, our Congress team breaks down how the Jeffrey Epstein saga is freezing up the House of Representatives. And speaking of the House, Steve Kornacki analyzes how mid-decade redistricting by Republicans in a few key states could alter the math of the midterms. — Scott Bland House cancels last day of votes before summer break as Epstein consumes Capitol Hill By Scott Wong, Kyle Stewart and Syedah Asghar The GOP-controlled House is cutting short its last workweek before the summer recess because of a fight on Capitol Hill over the release of the government's files on the late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The House was scheduled to hold votes on Thursday before lawmakers departed for their five-week recess. But Republican leaders informed rank-and-file lawmakers on Tuesday that the final vote of the week would now be a day earlier, on Wednesday afternoon. The shift in schedule occurred because of a standoff on the Rules Committee, which decides how legislation comes to the floor but has been ground to a halt by the Epstein issue. The panel, which is closely aligned with Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., typically passes a rule for legislation on Monday that sets up debate and allows bills to come to the floor for the week. But Democrats had promised Monday to force the committee to take more votes on whether to require the Trump administration to release all remaining files from the Epstein case. To avoid embarrassing votes on Epstein, Republicans decided to recess the committee and not attempt to pass a rule for bills this week. Without a rule, Republicans would be left with nothing to vote on after Wednesday. The Epstein saga has dominated chatter on Capitol Hill for more than a week as many Trump supporters have clamored for the release of all documents related to the convicted sex offender and the president and his administration sought to downplay the issue. It appeared to be dying down in recent days, but the Trump administration breathed new life into the story Tuesday morning, when the Justice Department announced that Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche will meet with Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell in the coming days. By Steve Kornacki In the coming weeks, Republicans in Texas and Ohio are expected to redraw their states' congressional maps. Their intent is transparent: to bolster their party's chances of protecting its super-slim House majority in next year's midterm elections. As it stands now, there are 220 Republican districts, meaning the party can afford a net loss of no more than two seats in 2026 and still keep the House. In theory, the redistricting effort could shift as many as eight seats from the Democratic to the GOP column, although the ultimate yield will depend on how aggressive the GOP gets — and how much the courts and voters will tolerate. It could also be offset by similar measures from Democrats in blue states like California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to do a redraw of his own but faces a far trickier process. Yet even if Republicans do emerge from a fresh round of redistricting with a batch of new, safe seats, it may still be woefully insufficient to keep the House, given the dramatic losses that the party in the White House often endures in midterm elections. It was during the first Trump presidency that the GOP coughed up a net 40 House seats in the 2018 midterms, easily losing control of the chamber. But the structure of the current Republican majority is much different than it was back in '18. Far fewer GOP seats now are in districts that are politically hostile to Trump and a far greater share are in politically safe Trump landslide districts. Nor are there as many marginal GOP incumbents in districts Trump carried only narrowly in the most recent presidential election. If successful, the redistricting push would amount to another big difference from 2018: It would give Republicans far more opportunities to play offense this time around.
