Latest news with #Fund
Asharq Al-Awsat
8 hours ago
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
IMF Raises Saudi Arabia's Growth Forecast to 3.6% for 2025
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its forecast for Saudi Arabia's economic growth in 2025 and 2026, citing expected increases in oil revenues and accelerating growth in non-oil sectors. The update places the Kingdom among the world's fastest-growing economies, just behind India and China. In its latest World Economic Outlook update, released Tuesday, the IMF now projects Saudi GDP growth at 3.6% in 2025 - up 0.6 percentage points from its April forecast. The Fund also lifted its 2026 projection to 3.9%, compared to its earlier estimate of 3.7%. Among the 30 countries reviewed in the IMF report, only China saw a larger upward revision. The Kingdom's revised forecast for 2025 also surpasses the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional average of 3.4%. The upgrade reflects several key developments: the anticipated increase in oil exports following OPEC+'s decision to phase out voluntary supply cuts, stronger-than-expected oil prices, and sustained momentum in Saudi Arabia's non-oil economy. An IMF official noted that strong domestic demand, fueled in part by major government-led projects, has further reinforced growth prospects. The revised figures align closely with those from an IMF mission to Saudi Arabia in June, which estimated 2025 growth at 3.5%. That mission concluded that the Kingdom's economy had demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of global headwinds. Non-oil sectors continue to expand steadily, inflation remains contained, and unemployment has fallen to record lows. The IMF stressed the importance of ongoing structural reforms to support long-term, non-oil growth and economic diversification, which is seen as an essential priority amid global uncertainty. It praised Saudi Arabia's broad-based reforms in corporate regulation, governance, labor markets, and financial systems. New legislation covering investment frameworks and labor policies is expected to boost investor confidence and productivity. This positive outlook comes as the Kingdom continues to implement fiscally disciplined policies. Ratings agency Fitch recently affirmed Saudi Arabia's sovereign credit rating at 'A+' with a stable outlook, underscoring the country's strong external balance sheet, low public debt, and robust ability to sustain growth without compromising financial stability.
Zawya
12 hours ago
- Business
- Zawya
IMF 2025 World Economic Outlook projects growth rates of 3.0% for 2025, 3.1% for 2026
WASHINGTON: The IMF today announced an updated forecast for global growth. The Fund projects growth rates of 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. This new forecast for 2025 is an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the reference forecast in the April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), while the outlook for 2026 is up by 0.1 percentage points. 'Global growth has been revised up to 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, reflecting stronger than expected front loading, lower tariff rates compared to early April, easier financial conditions, including a weaker US dollar and fiscal expansion in some jurisdictions. Still, projections remain about 0.2 percentage point below our pre-April 2nd forecasts, indicating that the trade tensions are hurting the global economy. Global inflation continues to decline, reaching 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026,' said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas the IMF's Chief Economist. Gourinchas added that overall, risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, as in the April WEO. 'Risks remain tilted to the downside. A breakdown in trade talks or renewed protectionism could dampen growth globally and fuel inflation in some countries. Persistent uncertainty may weigh on investment, while geopolitical tensions and fiscal vulnerabilities pose additional threats. Financial conditions have eased, but they could tighten abruptly, especially in case of threats to central bank independence. On the upside, breakthroughs in trade negotiations could boost confidence and structural reforms could lift long term productivity,' added Gourinchas. In terms of advice to policy makers, economic policies need to bring confidence, predictability, and sustainability by calming tensions, preserving price and financial stability, restoring fiscal buffers, and implementing much-needed structural reforms. 'Reducing policy uncertainty is essential. This is especially true for trade policy, where the global economy needs clear, transparent and predictable rules. Many countries need to address fiscal vulnerabilities and rebuild fiscal buffers even if they face increased spending needs. Central banks must maintain price and financial stability while preserving independence. Exchange rate flexibility remains key, even if some tailored interventions may be appropriate in certain cases in line with our integrated policy framework. Finally, structural reforms that ease policy tradeoffs and support long term growth remain essential to long term prosperity,' said Gourinchas.
Mid East Info
15 hours ago
- Business
- Mid East Info
Abu Dhabi Fund for Development Participates in the Groundbreaking Ceremony of Oman's Integrated Tourism Complex Project
The project is part of ADFD's investment strategy to accelerate sustainable economic development Abu Dhabi, UAE – July 2025: Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD) has participated in the groundbreaking ceremony for the Integrated Tourism Complex project in Salalah, Oman, with a total investment of AED764.5 million, underscoring its ongoing commitment to enabling key development projects in the tourism sector. The project aligns with the Fund's broader strategy to foster sustainable growth in partner nations through high-impact projects that promote economic diversification and strengthen tourism infrastructure. Attending the investment's groundbreaking ceremony was attended on the Omani side by His Excellency Azzan Al Busaidi, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Heritage and Tourism for Tourism, and the Manager of Dhofar Municipality. Representing Abu Dhabi Fund for Development were Eng. Rashid Al Kaabi, Executive Director of the Investment Sector, and Eng. Mohammed Al Hamedi, Technical and Admin Support Manager. Reinforcing the project's role as one of the most significant UAE investments in Oman's tourism sector. Spanning across a total area of 2.5 million square meters in Jinawf, Oman, the development aims to significantly enhance the city's tourism infrastructure and capacity through the construction of world-class hospitality facilities. Additionally, the project promotes the national goal of economic diversification and reinforces Oman's position as a leading tourism hub regionally and globally. The first phase of the project spans approximately 604,000 square meters, including the construction of a luxury resort which comprises over 120 rooms and chalets, as well as the developments of the marina, the rehabilitation of coastal and beachfront areas, and the implementation of essential infrastructure works, including roads and public utilities. These integrated components aim to deliver a seamless visitor experience, enhancing Salalah's tourism profile and contributing significantly to the sector's sustainable development. H.E. Mohammed Saif Al Suwaidi, Director General of Abu Dhabi Fund for Development, stated: 'This project is a testament to the deep-rooted strategic ties between the United Arab Emirates and the Sultanate of Oman. It reaffirms ADFD's ongoing commitment to supporting the development strategies of partner nations through investments that enable economic growth and generate a positive, sustainable impact for local communities. The project also reflects our vision of economic diversification and our proactive approach to advancing sustainable development through meaningful regional partnerships and shared prosperity.' H.E. Azzan Al Busaidi, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Heritage and Tourism for Tourism in Oman, emphasized that the project is expected to create hundreds of direct and indirect job opportunities while stimulating growth across key economic sectors. He added that it will enhance local capabilities through the integration of SMEs in key projects and offering training and capacity-building programs for Omani nationals in the fields of hospitality and tourism. The initiative aligns with Oman Vision 2040, which positions tourism as a central aspect for economic diversification, particularly in regions with abundant natural resources such as Dhofar. Aligned with ADFD's strategic investment goals, the project goes beyond enabling Oman's economic and tourism development. It also will bolster the tourism's sector's contribution to Oman's GDP, generate employment opportunities and support infrastructure development, further solidifying the country's position as a leading tourism hub in the region. This landmark initiative is a testament to decades of productive bilateral cooperation between the UAE and Oman, defined by diversified economic relations and robust strategic partnerships. Aligned with sustainable development goals and regional integration, the project aims to shape a prosperous economic future that advances the shared vision of both nations and their communities.
Business Upturn
15 hours ago
- Business
- Business Upturn
GraniteShares Announces Reverse Split of CONI
By GlobeNewswire Published on July 30, 2025, 02:31 IST NEW YORK, July 29, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — GraniteShares has announced it will execute a reverse share split for the GraniteShares 2x Short COIN (the 'Fund'). The total market value of the shares outstanding will not be affected as a result of the reverse split. After the close of the markets on August 14, 2025 (the 'Payable Date'), the Fund will effect a reverse split of its issued and outstanding shares as follows: Fund Name Ticker Reverse Split Ratio Approximate decrease in total number of outstanding shares GraniteShares 2x Short COIN Daily ETF CONI 1 for 20 95 % Effective after the close of markets on the Payable Date, the Fund's CUSIP will change as noted in the table below: Fund Name Current CUSIP New CUSIP GraniteShares 2x Short COIN Daily ETF 38747R 728 38747R 363 The reverse share split will apply to shareholders of record as of the close of the NASDAQ Stock Market. (the 'NASDAQ') on August 14, 2025 (the 'Record Date'), and payable after the close of the NASDAQ on the Payable Date. Shares of the Funds will begin trading on the NASDAQ on a reverse split-adjusted basis on August 15, 2025 (the 'Ex-Date'). On the Ex-Date, the opening market value of the Fund's issued and outstanding shares, and thus a shareholder's investment value, will not be affected by the reverse share split. However, the per share net asset value ('NAV') and opening market price on the Ex-Date will be approximately twenty-times higher. The table below illustrates the effect of a hypothetical one-for-twenty reverse split anticipated for the Fund: 1-for-20 Reverse Split Period # of Shares Owned Hypothetical NAV Total Market Value Pre-Split 1,000 $ 1.00 $ 1,000 Post-Split 50 $ 20.00 $ 1,000 The Trust's transfer agent will notify the Depository Trust Company ('DTC') of the reverse split and instruct DTC to adjust each shareholder's investment(s) accordingly. DTC is the registered owner of the Fund's shares and maintains a record of the Fund's record owners. Redemption of Fractional Shares and Tax Consequences of the Reverse Split As a result of the reverse split, a shareholder of the Fund's shares potentially could hold a fractional share. However, fractional shares cannot trade on the NASDAQ. Thus, the Fund will redeem for cash a shareholder's fractional shares at the Fund's split-adjusted NAV as of the Effective Date. Such redemption may have tax implications for those shareholders and a shareholder could recognize a gain or loss in connection with the redemption of the shareholder's fractional shares. Otherwise, the reverse split will not result in a taxable transaction for holders of Fund shares. No transaction fee will be imposed on shareholders for such redemption. About GraniteShares GraniteShares is an independent ETF issuer headquartered in New York City. GraniteShares offers the following leveraged single stock ETFs: ETF Name Ticker Underlying Stock Management Fee/Total Expense with fee waiver(1) /Total Expense without fee waiver(3) GraniteShares 2x Long AAPL Daily ETF AAPB Apple 0.99 %/1.15%/1.65% GraniteShares 2x Long AMD Daily ETF AMDL AMD 0.99 %/1.15%/6.04% GraniteShares 2x Long AMZN Daily ETF AMZZ 0.99 %/1.15%/2.28% GraniteShares 2x Long BABA Daily ETF BABX Alibaba 0.99 %/1.15%/1.52% GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF CONL Coinbase 0.99 %/1.10%/1.12% GraniteShares 2x Short COIN Daily ETF CONI Coinbase 0.99 %/1.15%/1.43% GraniteShares 2x Long CRWD Daily ETF CRWL CrowdStrike 1.30 %/1.50%/2.30% GraniteShares 2x Long DELL Daily ETF DLLL Dell Technologies 1.30 %/1.50%/2.30% GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF INTW Intel 1.30 %/1.50%/2.30% GraniteShares 2x Long IONQ Daily ETF IONL IONQ 1.30 %/1.50%/1.50% GraniteShares 2x Long LCID Daily ETF LCDL Lucid 0.99 %/1.15%/1.43% GraniteShares 2x Long MARA Daily ETF MRAL MARA Holding 1.30 %/1.50%/1.50% GraniteShares 2x Long META Daily ETF FBL Meta Platform 0.99 %/1.15%/1.22% GraniteShares 2x Long MRVL Daily ETF MVLL Marvell Technology 1.30 %/1.50%/1.50% GraniteShares 2x Long MSFT Daily ETF MSFL Microsoft 0.99 %/1.15%/3.55% GraniteShares 2x Long MSTR Daily ETF MSTP MicroStrategy 1.30 %/1.50%/1.50% GraniteShares 2x Short MSTR Daily ETF MSDD MicroStrategy 1.30 %/1.50%/1.50% GraniteShares 2x Long MU Daily ETF MULL Micron Technology 1.30 %/2.30%/1.50% GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF NVDL NVIDIA 0.99 %/1.06%/1.06% GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF NVD NVIDIA 0.99 %/1.50%/1.73% GraniteShares 2x Long PLTR Daily ETF PTIR Palantir 0.99 %/1.15%/1.18% GraniteShares 2x Long QCOM Daily ETF QCML Qualcomm 1.30 %/1.50%/2.30% GraniteShares 2x Long RDDT Daily ETF RDTL Reddit 1.30 %/1.50%/1.50% GraniteShares 2x Long RIVN Daily ETF RVNL Rivian 0.99 %/1.15%/1.43% GraniteShares 2x Long SMCI Daily ETF SMCL Super Micro Computer 1.30 %/1.50%/2.30% GraniteShares 1.25x Long TSLA Daily ETF TSL Tesla 0.99 %/1.15%/1.98% GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF TSLR Tesla 0.99 %/0.95%/1.63% GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF TSDD Tesla 0.99 %/0.95%/2.59% GraniteShares 2x Long TSM Daily ETF TSML Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 1.30 %/1.50%/2.30% GraniteShares 2x Long Uber Daily ETF UBRL Uber 0.99 %/1.15%/1.18% GraniteShares 2x Long VRT Daily ETF VRTL Vertiv 1.30 %/1.50%/1.50% In addition, GraniteShares' ETF suite includes the following ETFs: GraniteShares Advisors LLC has contractually agreed to waive its fees and/or pay for operating expenses of the Fund to ensure that total annual fund operating expenses (exclusive of any (i) interest, (ii) brokerage fees and commission, (iii) acquired fund fees and expenses, (iv) fees and expenses associated with instruments in other collective investment vehicles or derivative instruments (including for example options and swap fees and expenses), (v) interest and dividend expense on short sales, (vi) taxes, (vii) other fees related to underlying investments (such as option fees and expenses or swap fees and expenses), (viii) expenses incurred in connection with any merger or reorganization or (ix) extraordinary expenses such as litigation) will not exceed 1.15%. This agreement is effective until December 31, 2025, and it may be terminated before that date only by the Trust's Board of Trustees. GraniteShares Advisors LLC may request recoupment of previously waived fees and paid expenses from the Fund for three years from the date such fees and expenses were waived or paid, if such reimbursement will not cause the Fund's total expense ratio to exceed the expense limitation in place at the time of the waiver and/or expense payment and the expense limitation in place at the time of the recoupment. Estimated total cost in the absence of fee waiver or reimbursement. Contact Information:William Rhind, CEOGraniteShares Inc+1 646 876 5049 [email protected] Important Information Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the GraniteShares funds (the 'Funds') carefully before investing. For a prospectus or summary prospectus with this and other information about the Funds, please call (844) 476 8747, or visit the website at Read the prospectus or summary prospectus carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus for BAR, please visithttps:// obtain a prospectus for PLTM, please visithttps:// obtain a prospectus for COMB, please visit Except as described above regarding the liquidation of the ETFs, shares of the Funds may be sold during trading hours on the exchange through any brokerage account, shares are not individually redeemable, and shares may only be redeemed directly from a Fund by Authorized Participants. There can be no assurance that an active trading market for shares in a Fund will develop or be maintained. Shares may trade above or below NAV. Brokerage commissions will apply. Fund Risks Multiple funds have a limited operating history of less than a year and risks associated with a new fund. The Leveraged and Daily Inverse Funds are not suitable for all investors. The investment program of the funds is speculative, entails substantial risks and include asset classes and investment techniques not employed by most ETFs and mutual funds. Investments in the ETFs are not bank deposits and are not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. The Fund is designed to be utilized only by knowledgeable investors who understand the potential consequences of seeking daily leveraged (2X) or daily inverse (-1X and -2X) investment results, understand the risks associated with the use of leverage and are willing to monitor their portfolios frequently. For periods longer than a single day, the Fund will lose money if the Underlying Stock's performance is flat, and it is possible that the Fund will lose money even if the Underlying Stock's performance increases over a period longer than a single day. An investor could lose the full principal value of his/her investment within a single day. The funds do not directly invest in the underlying stock. The Funds seek daily inverse or leveraged investment results and are intended to be used as short-term trading vehicles. Each Fund with 'Long' in its name attempts to provide daily investment results that correspond to the respective long leveraged multiple of the performance of an underlying stock (each a Leveraged Long Fund). Each Fund with 'Short' in its name attempts to provide daily investment results that correspond to the inverse (or opposite) multiple of the performance of an underlying stock (each an Inverse Fund). Investors should note that the Long Leveraged Funds and the Daily Inverse Funds pursue daily leveraged investment objectives and daily inverse investment objectives (respectively), which means that the fund is riskier than alternatives that do not use leverage and inverse strategies because the fund magnifies the performance of their underlying security. The volatility of the underlying security may affect a Funds' return as much as, or more than, the return of the underlying security. For the Leveraged Long Funds because of daily rebalancing and the compounding of each day's return over time, the return of the Fund for periods longer than a single day will be the result of each day's returns compounded over the period, which will very likely differ from 200% of the return of the Underlying Stock over the same period. The Fund will lose money if the Underlying Stock's performance is flat over time, and as a result of daily rebalancing, the Underlying Stock volatility and the effects of compounding, it is even possible that the Fund will lose money over time while the Underlying Stock's performance increases over a period longer than a single day. For the Daily Inverse Funds because of daily rebalancing and the compounding of each day's return over time, the return of the Fund for periods longer than a single day will be the result of each day's returns compounded over the period, which will very likely differ from -100% and 200% of the return of the Underlying Stock over the same period. The Fund will lose money if the Underlying Stock's performance is flat over time, and as a result of daily rebalancing, the Underlying Stock volatility and the effects of compounding, it is even possible that the Fund will lose money over time while the Underlying Stock's performance decreases over a period longer than a single day. Shares are bought and sold at market price (not NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the ETF. There can be no guarantee that an active trading market for ETF shares will develop or be maintained, or that their listing will continue or remain unchanged. Buying or selling ETF shares on an exchange may require the payment of brokerage commissions and frequent trading may incur brokerage costs that detract significantly from investment returns. An investment in the Fund involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The Fund is non-diversified and includes risks associated with the Fund concentrating its investments in a particular industry, sector, or geographic region which can result in increased volatility. The use of derivatives such as futures contracts and swaps are subject to market risks that may cause their price to fluctuate over time. Risks of the Fund include Effects of Compounding and Market Volatility Risk, Inverse Risk, Market Risk, Counterparty Risk, Rebalancing Risk, Intra-Day Investment Risk, Daily Index Correlation Risk, Other Investment Companies (including ETFs) Risk, and risks specific to the securities of the Underlying Stock and the sector in which it operates. These and other risks can be found in the prospectus. Investing in physical commodities, including through commodity-linked derivative instruments such as Commodity Futures, Commodity Swaps, as well as other commodity-linked instruments, is speculative and can be extremely volatile and may not be suitable for all investors. Market prices of commodities may fluctuate rapidly based on numerous factors, including: changes in supply and demand relationships (whether actual, perceived, anticipated, unanticipated or unrealized); weather; agriculture; trade; domestic and foreign political and economic events and policies; diseases; pestilence; technological developments; currency exchange rate fluctuations; and monetary and other governmental policies, action and inaction. A liquid secondary market may not exist for the types of commodity-linked derivative instruments the Fund buys, which may make it difficult for the Fund to sell them at an acceptable price. The Fund is new with no operating history. As a result, there can be no assurance that the Fund will grow to or maintain an economically viable size, in which case it could ultimately liquidate. Derivatives may be more sensitive to changes in market conditions and may amplify risks and losses. This information is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy shares of any Funds to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. Please consult your tax advisor about the tax consequences of an investment in Fund shares, including the possible application of foreign, state, and local tax laws. You could lose money by investing in the ETFs. There can be no assurance that the investment objective of the Funds will be achieved. None of the Funds should be relied upon as a complete investment program. The Fund is distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc, which is not affiliated with GraniteShares or any of its affiliates ©2025 GraniteShares Inc. All rights reserved. GraniteShares, GraniteShares Trusts, and the GraniteShares logo are registered and unregistered trademarks of GraniteShares Inc., in the United States and elsewhere. All other marks are the property of their respective FCA for GraniteSharesKathleen Elicker, 484-889-6597 [email protected] Important Information Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. For a prospectus or summary prospectus with this and other information about the Funds, please call (844) 476 8747 or visit Read the prospectus or summary prospectus carefully before investing. The investment program of the funds is speculative, entails substantial risks and include asset classes and investment techniques not employed by more traditional mutual funds. PRINCIPAL FUND RISKS (see the Prospectus for more information) GraniteShares Leveraged Long and Inverse Daily ETFs are not suitable for all investors. The funds seek daily leveraged investment results and are intended to be used as short-term trading vehicles. The funds pursue daily leveraged investment objectives, which means that the funds are riskier than alternatives that do not use leverage because the fund magnifies the performance of the underlying security. The volatility of the underlying security may affect the fund return as much as, or more than, the return of the underlying security. Investors who do not understand the Funds, or do not intend to actively manage their funds and monitor their investments, should not buy the Funds. The Funds are designed to be utilized only by traders and sophisticated investors who understand the potential consequences of seeking daily inverse and/or leveraged investment results, understand the risks associated with the use of leverage and/or short sales and are willing to monitor their portfolios frequently. For periods longer than a single day, the Funds will lose money if the underlying stock's performance is flat, and it is possible that the Funds will lose money even if the underlying stock's performance increases over a period longer than a single day. An investor could lose the full principal value of his/her investment within a single day. The Funds track the price of a single stock rather than an index, eliminating the benefits of diversification that most mutual funds and exchange-traded funds offer. Although the Funds will be listed and traded on an exchange, an investment in a Fund may not be suitable for every investor. The Funds pose risks that are unique and complex. This information is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy shares of any Funds to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. THE FUNDS ARE DISTRIBUTED BY ALPS DISTRIBIUTORS, INC. GRANITESHRES IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH ALPS DISTRIBUTORS, INC Disclaimer: The above press release comes to you under an arrangement with GlobeNewswire. Business Upturn takes no editorial responsibility for the same. Ahmedabad Plane Crash GlobeNewswire provides press release distribution services globally, with substantial operations in North America and Europe.
Al-Ahram Weekly
a day ago
- Business
- Al-Ahram Weekly
IMF slightly trims Egypt's growth forecast amid global trade shifts - Economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly lowered its projection for Egypt's real GDP growth by 0.2 percent for the current FY2025/2026, which began on 1 July. The revised forecast now stands at 4.1 percent, down from its April estimate of 4.3 percent. The report, an updated version of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on Tuesday, did not elaborate on the specific reasons behind this revision. The IMF said in July that it will combine the fifth and sixth reviews of Egypt's ongoing $8 billion loan programme, with both slated for completion in December. The fifth review was primarily scheduled to be completed in June, yet the implications for the regional geopolitical tensions impeded that. At the regional level, the IMF projects that the Middle East and Central Asia will experience an uptick in growth, reaching 3.4 percent in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2026, reflecting a broader stabilisation following recent economic pressures. Global growth slows, but revisions improve 2025 outlook On a global scale, the Fund anticipates modest deceleration in economic growth over the coming years, forecasting three percent growth in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. These figures fall below both the 2024 estimate of 3.3 percent and the pre-pandemic average of 3.7 percent, indicating a shift back to slower long-term trend growth. Despite the overall slowdown, the IMF upgraded its 2025 global growth forecast from the April outlook, driven by stronger-than-expected international trade, a lower effective global tariff rate, and improved global financial conditions. Countries, including China, saw some of the most notable upward revisions. Trade activity boosts short-term forecasts, but raises 2026 risks The report highlights a short-term boost from front-loading of trade flows amid elevated policy uncertainty and expectations of trade restrictions. As a result, global trade volume for 2025 was revised upward by 0.9 percent. However, the report expected this offset to fade in the second half of 2025, with a projected 'payback' effect in 2026, leading to a 0.6 percent downward revision in global trade for that year. According to the WEO, the weaker US dollar is magnifying the impact of tariffs on the country's trade balances rather than offsetting it. While tariffs are positively affecting the US current account, their impact is being more than neutralised by the government's expansionary fiscal stance. Medium-term outlooks suggest that fiscal stimulus in current account surplus economies may help reduce global imbalances. Disinflation Trend continues globally Global inflation continues on a downward trajectory, with headline inflation projected to fall to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026, broadly unchanged from the April WEO. This is attributed to cooling demand and lower energy prices, although regional variations persist. In the US, tariffs are acting as a supply-side shock, gradually feeding into consumer prices and pushing inflation above the Federal Reserve's two percent target through 2026. Meanwhile, inflation in the euro area is expected to ease due to currency appreciation and one-off fiscal policies. In China, core inflation was revised slightly upward, reflecting higher-than-expected recent readings. Downside risks still overshadow outlook The report asserted that downside risks continue to dominate. The fragile trade policy balance could be disrupted by escalating protectionism. If the tariff levels proposed by the US administration, including up to 50 percent on copper, are implemented, global growth could decline by around 0.2 percent in 2025. Additional sectoral tariffs, particularly in electronics and pharmaceuticals, and nontariff barriers targeting key inputs may result in supply chain disruptions and heightened inflationary pressures. Even without new measures, trade policy uncertainty could discourage investment, especially in export-driven economies. Moreover, rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, pose further threats by potentially introducing supply shocks, disrupting shipping routes, and driving up commodity prices. This scenario would likely weigh on growth and rekindle inflation, placing central banks in more difficult policy positions. As per the report, fiscal vulnerabilities are also a concern. Countries like Brazil, France, and the US are running large fiscal deficits alongside historically high public debt, potentially tightening global financial conditions and increasing market volatility, especially if concerns about Us fiscal sustainability and the dollar's role in the global monetary system escalate. Moreover, the front-loading of trade earlier this year may leave firms exposed to shocks. Inventory overhangs could reduce import demand and result in higher holding costs or losses if expected demand fails to materialise. Structural reforms, trade deals offer brighter long-term path On a more positive note, the IMF notes that a breakthrough in trade negotiations could help reduce tariffs, lower uncertainty, and foster investment. If these agreements extend to digital services and foreign investment, they could yield long-term gains in productivity and resilience. Additionally, such progress could encourage structural reforms in areas such as labour markets, business regulation, and competition, setting the stage for more sustainable medium-term growth in a challenging global environment. Follow us on: Facebook Instagram Whatsapp Short link:
