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Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Pound edges lower following economic growth forecast cut
The pound dipped nearly 0.2% against the dollar (GBPUSD=X) to trade at $1.3519 on Tuesday, after the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cut its forecasts for growth in 2025 and 2026. The OECD warned that the economic outlook was becoming "increasingly challenging" and predicted that that global gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026. The organisation said that was based on the 'on the technical assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained despite ongoing legal challenges." "The slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico, with China and other economies expected to see smaller downward adjustments," it said. For the UK, the OECD lowered it economic growth forecast to 1.3% this year, from the 1.4% it predicted in March. It expected growth to slow further in 2026 to 1%, which was also lower than a previous forecast of 1.2%. Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell (AJB.L), said that while the OECD's global growth forecast cut was "only a small revision ... it's still enough to cause investors some digestion as they consume their morning news." "The 90-day pause on tariffs has just over a month before expiration, meaning the pressure is on countries to do deals with the Trump administration," he said. "Reports suggest that [US president Donald] Trump wants best offers on trade negotiations by Wednesday, perhaps to avoid any last-minute rush or stalemate situations." Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks head lower as global growth set to slow this year amid Trump tariffs On Monday, China hit back at Trump's claim it had violated the temporary trade agreement between the two countries, while the EU said it opposed the president's doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. The dollar index ( which pits the greenback against a basket of global currencies, ticked up 0.2% at 98.91. It has lost about 0.9% over the past five sessions. Markets have endured wild swings since Trump unveiled sweeping global tariffs in April. Last week, a new source of uncertainty over his trade policy emerged when a federal appeals court quickly paused a ruling that would have blocked most of the president's tariffs as illegal. The Trump administration is due to respond to the appeals court by Monday 9 June. Sterling was slightly higher against the euro (GBPEUR=X), meanwhile, hitting the €1.184 mark ahead of the eurozone's fresh flash inflation reading and interest rate decision later in the week. Eurozone inflation dipped to 1.9% year-on-year in May, according to the latest flash estimates, slightly below the ECB's 2% target. Oil prices were muted on Tuesday morning, as concerns about economic growth appeared to cap gains from a OPEC+-induced rally in the previous session. Brent crude futures (BZ=F) were flat at $64.59 a barrel, at the time of writing, while West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) dipped 0.1% at $62.43 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — known as OPEC+ — said in a statement on Saturday that its eight participating countries had agreed to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day. Stocks: Create your watchlist and portfolio Jim Reid, a market strategist at Deutsche Bank ( said: "An increase of this magnitude was flagged on the wires on Friday afternoon and there was some prospect of it being higher than this. He said that oil futures were higher on Monday morning "in a relief that the output increase wasn't higher." However, the OECD's economic growth forecast cut appeared to reignite fears of a global slowdown and how this could weigh on demand for fuel. Gold prices fell declined on Tuesday, as a stronger dollar weighed on the precious metal. Gold futures (GC=F) fell 0.4% at $3,382.30 per ounce at the time of writing, while the spot gold price was down 0.7% to $3,356.98 per ounce. A stronger greenback tends to weigh on gold prices, as the precious metal is typically priced in dollars, meaning a rise in the currency makes the commodity more expensive for foreign buyers. Read more: Trending tickers: Meta, TSMC, BioNTech, Applied Digital and BAT In a note on Tuesday, Bank of America (BAC) strategists said that they were bullish on gold over a one-month horizon. They acknowledged that gold was "facing headwinds near-term as the market adjusts to Trump's economic policies, which may bring about higher inflation and a stronger USD [dollar]." "There is also a risk the EM (emerging market) central bank reduce gold buying, if domestic currencies decline on tariffs," they said. "Yet, ongoing macro uncertainty and rising global debt levels remain supportive," the strategists added. Read more: What is the Pension Investment Review? Eurozone inflation cools to 1.9% in May paving way for interest rate cut UK 'bargain' stocks that have outperformed the market long-termSign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Pound edges lower following economic growth forecast cut
The pound dipped nearly 0.2% against the dollar (GBPUSD=X) to trade at $1.3519 on Tuesday, after the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cut its forecasts for growth in 2025 and 2026. The OECD warned that the economic outlook was becoming "increasingly challenging" and predicted that that global gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026. The organisation said that was based on the 'on the technical assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained despite ongoing legal challenges." "The slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico, with China and other economies expected to see smaller downward adjustments," it said. For the UK, the OECD lowered it economic growth forecast to 1.3% this year, from the 1.4% it predicted in March. It expected growth to slow further in 2026 to 1%, which was also lower than a previous forecast of 1.2%. Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell (AJB.L), said that while the OECD's global growth forecast cut was "only a small revision ... it's still enough to cause investors some digestion as they consume their morning news." "The 90-day pause on tariffs has just over a month before expiration, meaning the pressure is on countries to do deals with the Trump administration," he said. "Reports suggest that [US president Donald] Trump wants best offers on trade negotiations by Wednesday, perhaps to avoid any last-minute rush or stalemate situations." Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks head lower as global growth set to slow this year amid Trump tariffs On Monday, China hit back at Trump's claim it had violated the temporary trade agreement between the two countries, while the EU said it opposed the president's doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. The dollar index ( which pits the greenback against a basket of global currencies, ticked up 0.2% at 98.91. It has lost about 0.9% over the past five sessions. Markets have endured wild swings since Trump unveiled sweeping global tariffs in April. Last week, a new source of uncertainty over his trade policy emerged when a federal appeals court quickly paused a ruling that would have blocked most of the president's tariffs as illegal. The Trump administration is due to respond to the appeals court by Monday 9 June. Sterling was slightly higher against the euro (GBPEUR=X), meanwhile, hitting the €1.184 mark ahead of the eurozone's fresh flash inflation reading and interest rate decision later in the week. Eurozone inflation dipped to 1.9% year-on-year in May, according to the latest flash estimates, slightly below the ECB's 2% target. Oil prices were muted on Tuesday morning, as concerns about economic growth appeared to cap gains from a OPEC+-induced rally in the previous session. Brent crude futures (BZ=F) were flat at $64.59 a barrel, at the time of writing, while West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) dipped 0.1% at $62.43 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — known as OPEC+ — said in a statement on Saturday that its eight participating countries had agreed to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day. Stocks: Create your watchlist and portfolio Jim Reid, a market strategist at Deutsche Bank ( said: "An increase of this magnitude was flagged on the wires on Friday afternoon and there was some prospect of it being higher than this. He said that oil futures were higher on Monday morning "in a relief that the output increase wasn't higher." However, the OECD's economic growth forecast cut appeared to reignite fears of a global slowdown and how this could weigh on demand for fuel. Gold prices fell declined on Tuesday, as a stronger dollar weighed on the precious metal. Gold futures (GC=F) fell 0.4% at $3,382.30 per ounce at the time of writing, while the spot gold price was down 0.7% to $3,356.98 per ounce. A stronger greenback tends to weigh on gold prices, as the precious metal is typically priced in dollars, meaning a rise in the currency makes the commodity more expensive for foreign buyers. Read more: Trending tickers: Meta, TSMC, BioNTech, Applied Digital and BAT In a note on Tuesday, Bank of America (BAC) strategists said that they were bullish on gold over a one-month horizon. They acknowledged that gold was "facing headwinds near-term as the market adjusts to Trump's economic policies, which may bring about higher inflation and a stronger USD [dollar]." "There is also a risk the EM (emerging market) central bank reduce gold buying, if domestic currencies decline on tariffs," they said. "Yet, ongoing macro uncertainty and rising global debt levels remain supportive," the strategists added. Read more: What is the Pension Investment Review? Eurozone inflation cools to 1.9% in May paving way for interest rate cut UK 'bargain' stocks that have outperformed the market long-termError in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Pound edges lower following economic growth forecast cut
The pound dipped nearly 0.2% against the dollar (GBPUSD=X) to trade at $1.3519 on Tuesday, after the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cut its forecasts for growth in 2025 and 2026. The OECD warned that the economic outlook was becoming "increasingly challenging" and predicted that that global gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026. The organisation said that was based on the 'on the technical assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained despite ongoing legal challenges." "The slowdown is concentrated in the United States, Canada and Mexico, with China and other economies expected to see smaller downward adjustments," it said. For the UK, the OECD lowered it economic growth forecast to 1.3% this year, from the 1.4% it predicted in March. It expected growth to slow further in 2026 to 1%, which was also lower than a previous forecast of 1.2%. Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell (AJB.L), said that while the OECD's global growth forecast cut was "only a small revision ... it's still enough to cause investors some digestion as they consume their morning news." "The 90-day pause on tariffs has just over a month before expiration, meaning the pressure is on countries to do deals with the Trump administration," he said. "Reports suggest that [US president Donald] Trump wants best offers on trade negotiations by Wednesday, perhaps to avoid any last-minute rush or stalemate situations." Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks head lower as global growth set to slow this year amid Trump tariffs On Monday, China hit back at Trump's claim it had violated the temporary trade agreement between the two countries, while the EU said it opposed the president's doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. The dollar index ( which pits the greenback against a basket of global currencies, ticked up 0.2% at 98.91. It has lost about 0.9% over the past five sessions. Markets have endured wild swings since Trump unveiled sweeping global tariffs in April. Last week, a new source of uncertainty over his trade policy emerged when a federal appeals court quickly paused a ruling that would have blocked most of the president's tariffs as illegal. The Trump administration is due to respond to the appeals court by Monday 9 June. Sterling was slightly higher against the euro (GBPEUR=X), meanwhile, hitting the €1.184 mark ahead of the eurozone's fresh flash inflation reading and interest rate decision later in the week. Eurozone inflation dipped to 1.9% year-on-year in May, according to the latest flash estimates, slightly below the ECB's 2% target. Oil prices were muted on Tuesday morning, as concerns about economic growth appeared to cap gains from a OPEC+-induced rally in the previous session. Brent crude futures (BZ=F) were flat at $64.59 a barrel, at the time of writing, while West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) dipped 0.1% at $62.43 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — known as OPEC+ — said in a statement on Saturday that its eight participating countries had agreed to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day. Stocks: Create your watchlist and portfolio Jim Reid, a market strategist at Deutsche Bank ( said: "An increase of this magnitude was flagged on the wires on Friday afternoon and there was some prospect of it being higher than this. He said that oil futures were higher on Monday morning "in a relief that the output increase wasn't higher." However, the OECD's economic growth forecast cut appeared to reignite fears of a global slowdown and how this could weigh on demand for fuel. Gold prices fell declined on Tuesday, as a stronger dollar weighed on the precious metal. Gold futures (GC=F) fell 0.4% at $3,382.30 per ounce at the time of writing, while the spot gold price was down 0.7% to $3,356.98 per ounce. A stronger greenback tends to weigh on gold prices, as the precious metal is typically priced in dollars, meaning a rise in the currency makes the commodity more expensive for foreign buyers. Read more: Trending tickers: Meta, TSMC, BioNTech, Applied Digital and BAT In a note on Tuesday, Bank of America (BAC) strategists said that they were bullish on gold over a one-month horizon. They acknowledged that gold was "facing headwinds near-term as the market adjusts to Trump's economic policies, which may bring about higher inflation and a stronger USD [dollar]." "There is also a risk the EM (emerging market) central bank reduce gold buying, if domestic currencies decline on tariffs," they said. "Yet, ongoing macro uncertainty and rising global debt levels remain supportive," the strategists added. Read more: What is the Pension Investment Review? Eurozone inflation cools to 1.9% in May paving way for interest rate cut UK 'bargain' stocks that have outperformed the market long-termSe produjo un error al recuperar la información Inicia sesión para acceder a tu portafolio Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Se produjo un error al recuperar la información
Yahoo
01-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold climbs to new highs as investors brace for Trump tariffs
The pound was little changed against the dollar in early European trading on Tuesday, changing hands at $1.2920, as investors braced for US president Donald Trump to unveil reciprocal tariffs on 2 April. Trump is set to announce sweeping country-based duties on Wednesday, which he has dubbed "Liberation Day". Trump's varying comments on the nature and extent of tariffs have fuelled volatility in markets this month, with fears that an escalating trade war will drive already stubborn inflation higher and weigh on economic growth. When asked for details of the tariffs on Monday, Trump told reporters: "You're going to see in two days, which is maybe tomorrow night or probably Wednesday." He added: "We're going to be very nice, relatively speaking, we're going to be very kind." Tariff fears prompted a sell-off across markets globally on Monday, with the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) losing 0.9%, though the UK's blue-chip index rebounded on Tuesday morning to start April on the front foot. Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks head higher despite tariff anxieties Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said: "Ahead of the imminent 'Liberation Day' announcement, details remain patchy on the level of tariffs which have led to calls of potential stagflation or, at worst, recession. "Indeed, Goldman Sachs has raised its estimate of the likelihood of recession to 35% from a previous 20%, while alongside the uncertainty the mega cap sector has also taken something of a beating." The pound edged slightly higher against the euro (GBPEUR=X) on Tuesday morning, trading at €1.1944. Gold prices notched fresh highs at the start of a new quarter on Tuesday, with uncertainty over tariffs continuing to help fuel demand for the safe-haven asset. Gold futures (GC=F) were up 0.1% at $3,153.80 per ounce at the time of writing, while the spot price advanced 0.1% to $3,127.49 an ounce. According to a note from Deutsche Bank Research on Tuesday morning, gold prices were up 19% in the first quarter, marking their biggest quarterly gain since 1986. Stocks: Create your watchlist and portfolio In a note on Monday, Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said: "Central banks have been a key part of the rally in gold prices over the past 18 months. Indeed, the World Gold Council estimates that central banks now account for about 20% of total gold demand, almost double their average share between 2011 and 2021." "Overall, gold's role as a portfolio diversifier means that central banks will probably remain a large and steady source of gold demand and continue to offset downward pressure on gold prices from a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields," he said. "Given that gold supply is typically inelastic, we think that gold prices will rise to an above-consensus $3,300 per ounce by the end of this year." Oil prices dipped on Tuesday morning, amid concerns about the impact of tariffs on the global economy and fuel demand. Brent crude futures fell 0.4% to $74.47 a barrel at the time of writing, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dipped 0.4% to $71.18 a barrel. However, prices remained near their highest point in a month, supported by concerns about disruptions to supply. NBC News reported on Sunday that Trump said he was "very angry" with Russian president Vladimir Putin and said he may put secondary tariffs on Russian oil if he believed Moscow was at fault for a ceasefire deal not being reached with Ukraine. Read more: What you need to know about investing in VCTs In a separate phone interview with NBC News on Saturday, Trump reportedly threatened Iran with secondary tariffs and bombing if it did not make a deal with the US to make sure it did not develop a nuclear weapon. ING commodities strategists said on Tuesday: "For now, it appears to be just a threat to Russia and Iran. However, if it becomes a reality, it creates plenty of upside risk to the market given the significant oil export volumes from both countries." In broader market movements, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) rose 0.8% to 8,650 points on Tuesday morning. For more details, check our live coverage here. Read more: How to optimise your retirement planning for tax year-end Stocks to watch this week: BlackBerry, Guess, Travis Perkins, Raspberry Pi and SSE How will UK carmakers be hit by Trump import tariffs? — key developmentsSign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
31-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Gold surges to record high as US levies loom
Pound (GBPUSD=X, GBPEUR=X) The pound strengthened against the dollar, rising 0.2% to $1.2967, as fears that president Donald Trump's tariffs could spur inflation and slow economic growth put pressure on the greenback. The dollar index ( which tracks the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, has fallen roughly 3.5% this month. Currently, the index stands at 103.86, down 0.2%. Anxiety over impending tariffs on America's trading partners has contributed to the dollar's weakness. Donald Trump said he would issue tariffs on 'all countries' and threatened to impose levies on Russian oil. Trump has promised a 'Liberation Day' on Wednesday, when he is set to unveil reciprocal levies to address trade practices that his government deems unfair. Tariffs on car imports to the US are due to come into force on Thursday. 'You'd start with all countries, so let's see what happens,' Trump told reporters onboard Air Force One, dashing hopes he might scale back some of the threatened levies. Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks drop as trade war jitters take hold Analysts are concerned that these aggressive trade measures could stifle US economic growth and limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, while simultaneously driving inflation higher in the short term. This combination of factors is expected to weigh on the dollar and could push the GBP/USD exchange rate higher in the near term. "Recession risks have become elevated – to a 40% probability – on concerns that aggressive US policies hit business and household sentiment," warned Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JP Morgan. So far this month, the pound has gained 3% against the dollar. Additionally, the pound edged higher against the euro, rising 0.2% to 1.1972. Gold prices surged to a new all-time high today, driven by growing concerns over Trump's threat to impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries that have prompted a flight into safe-haven assets. Spot gold rose 1.2% to $3,122.65 per ounce, while gold futures climbed 1.3% to $3,153.10. KCM Trade chief market analyst Tim Waterer said: 'Markets' anxiety levels have been ramping up ahead of the reciprocal US tariff announcements, which is keeping gold in high demand as a defensive play. 'If the tariff announcements this week are not as severe as feared, then the gold price could start to backtrack as profit-taking from the highs may be triggered.' Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, has posted gains for four consecutive weeks amid rising concerns about the global economic outlook. The precious metal has increased in value by about 18% this year, hitting at least 16 record highs. The rally has led several major banks to revise their price forecasts for gold. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and UBS have all raised their price targets for the yellow metal this month. Goldman now expects gold to hit $3,300 per ounce by year-end, up from a previous forecast of $3,100. Bank of America anticipates gold will trade at $3,063 per ounce in 2025 and $3,350 per ounce in 2026, marking a significant increase from its earlier projections of $2,750 and $2,625, respectively. Read more: Retail investors rush to gold amid record high prices "For now, gold's appeal as a safe haven and inflation hedge has further strengthened in light of these geopolitical concerns and tariff uncertainty. We remain constructive on the outlook of gold amid ongoing global trade friction and uncertainty," said analysts at OCBC. Oil prices eased on Monday, heading for a modest quarterly loss despite a warning from Trump that he may impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if Moscow obstructs his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Brent crude lost 0.3% to trade at $72.57 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 0.2% to $69.25 per barrel. The decline came after three consecutive weeks of gains, primarily driven by expectations of tighter supplies following Trump's threat of additional sanctions on Russia. Trump also issued a warning to Iran, threatening bombing if the country failed to agree to a new nuclear deal with Washington. Both oil benchmarks were on track to end the month slightly lower, marking their first quarterly drop in two quarters. "[Trump's] threat of secondary tariffs on Russia and Iranian oil is a factor oil market participants are tracking, although he has indicated he is not planning to introduce them for now," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "But, there is a rising risk of larger supply risks down the road." Losses were capped as Chinese media reports showed the discovery of major reserves in the South China Sea, which offset concerns over tighter supplies and slowing economic growth. Stocks: Create your watchlist and portfolio Chinese state media reported on Monday that CNOOC ( had discovered an oilfield in the South China Sea with proven reserves exceeding 100 million tonnes. The field, located off the coast of Shenzhen in China's Exclusive Economic Zone, is not in a disputed region of the sea and lies at an average depth of 100 meters. The oilfield could help strengthen China's oil reserves and reduce its dependence on imports. However, media reports did not specify when CNOOC would begin large-scale extraction, as offshore reserves are typically difficult to explore. In broader market movements, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was lower at the time of writing, losing 0.9% to 8,5852 points. For more details, check our live coverage in to access your portfolio
