19-05-2025
Gambling.com Group Limited Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
It's been a sad week for Group Limited (NASDAQ:GAMB), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$12.43 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$41m were what the analysts expected, Group surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.31 per share, an impressive 31% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
We've discovered 1 warning sign about Group. View them for free.
After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Group are now predicting revenues of US$172.1m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a huge 24% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$0.98, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$172.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.04 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for Group
The consensus price target held steady at US$18.57, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$17.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Group is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Group'shistorical trends, as the 33% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 36% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 2.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that Group is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Group that we have uncovered.
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