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Express Tribune
20-04-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Shining a light on Pakistan's solar boom
Human beings have always found ways to adapt when they've had to. Every time we've run into a shortage or a crisis, whether it's food, water, or energy, we've come up with something new. It's just how we've always moved forward by figuring things out when the pressure's on. Electricity is a good example. What started out as a curiosity became something we can't function without. Over time, we've found different ways to produce it some better for the planet than others. As the world leaned heavily on fossil fuels, the downsides started catching up with us. Rising costs, environmental damage, and just the plain fact that they won't last forever pushed scientists and governments to start thinking differently. That's where solar, wind, and water came in cleaner ways to power our lives. Out of these, solar really started to take off. Panels got cheaper, technology improved, and suddenly, it wasn't just big companies or countries dabbling in solar. Regular people started installing them, too. In Pakistan, this shift has been picking up speed. What used to seem like a luxury is now starting to feel like a real solution. According to Ember's Global Electricity Review 2025, Pakistan was actually the biggest importer of solar panels in 2024 bringing in 17 gigawatts' worth. That's double the amount from the year before. It's a big leap, and it says a lot about where we're headed. This change didn't happen on its own. It's a mix of things government support, better prices, and people realising that we need cleaner, cheaper energy. And if things keep moving in this direction, Pakistan could end up becoming a serious player in the solar energy game. To understand the significance of Pakistan's solar surge, it's essential to look at the country's energy landscape and how it has evolved over time. Pakistan's energy sector has traditionally been dominated by fossil fuels, but the government has been actively promoting renewable energy sources to reduce dependence on imported fuels and mitigate the impact of energy crises. Pakistan's energy evolution Pakistan's energy landscape has undergone significant changes in recent years, driven by the government's efforts to diversify the energy mix and promote renewable energy sources. Historically, the country has relied heavily on fossil fuels, but the need for diversification has become increasingly apparent. According to Shah Jahan Mirza, Managing Director at Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB), the government's efforts are focused on ensuring affordability, sustainability, energy security, and energy access for all. "The Government of Pakistan (GOP) has been endeavouring to bring in transformational changes in the power system in order to ensure affordability, sustainability, energy security and energy access for all," he told The Express Tribune. The government is also cognizant of its global commitments towards climate change mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals. Mirza emphasised that utilisation of indigenous sources of power generation is the topmost priority of the government. Pakistan is blessed with a huge renewable energy resource potential, particularly solar energy. "Pakistan is blessed with a huge renewable energy resource potential particularly solar energy," Mirza noted. "The continuous technological advancements coupled with decreasing cost of renewables, in particular wind and solar energy, make them the most viable options for large scale energy production." The government's renewable energy targets and policies have played a crucial role in promoting the growth of solar energy in Pakistan. The first renewable energy policy was announced in 2006, which kick-started the development of renewable energy projects in the country. Mirza highlighted the significance of this policy, stating, "The Government announced the first renewable energy policy in 2006 that kick started the promotion and development of renewable energy projects in Pakistan. The policy resulted in attracting private sector investment in wind, solar and bagasse based power generation projects." The policy also envisioned net-metering-based solar installations, which have seen a sharp rise in recent years. "The RE Policy 2006 also envisioned net-metering based solar installations for which NEPRA announced the requisite regulations in 2015," Mirza said. Today, there are over 302,409 net-metering-based installations with an installed capacity of 4,492 MW. The government has set ambitious targets for renewable energy, aiming to achieve 60 per cent of its generation capacity through indigenous clean energy technologies by 2030. The National Electricity Policy 2021 and the National Electricity Plan (NEP) 2023-27 outline the strategies and actions for attaining the desired outcomes for the power sector. Mirza emphasised that the government has set in place the necessary policy framework for ensuring the supply of reliable, secure, efficient, and affordable electricity and making a transition towards clean energy resources. To support the continued growth of solar energy, the government plans to continue its policy and regulatory support. "The Government is continuing its support towards the growth of solar energy through policy and regulatory framework," Mirza said. Solar energy will remain a main component of new large-scale capacity additions in the future, and the government is promoting distributed generation through renewables, both in grid-connected and off-grid modes. "Solar energy, being one of the cheapest sources of power generation, would remain a main component of new large scale capacity additions in the future," Mirza noted. The government is also promoting micro and mini grids based on renewable sources for provision of electricity to off-grid population. Mirza highlighted that the initiation of the whole electricity market under the CTBCM regime would also pave the way for more renewable energy-based installations. "The initiation of the whole electricity market under the CTBCM regime would also pave the way for more renewable energy based installations," he said. As Pakistan continues to transition towards a more sustainable energy future, the growth of solar energy is expected to play a vital role in meeting the country's energy demands. With the government's supportive policies and regulatory framework in place, the stage is set for solar energy to become a major player in Pakistan's energy landscape. Solar or bust Solar energy has been quietly but steadily transforming Pakistan's energy mix over the past few years. What once felt like a niche or long-term goal is now becoming a practical solution for households, industries, and even the government driven by a mix of incentives, falling costs, and a growing awareness of climate change. One of the major reasons behind this shift is policy support. From tax exemptions to net metering, the government has created space for solar to grow. Net metering, in particular, has been a game-changer. It allows homes and businesses to produce their own electricity through solar panels and sell the excess back to the grid bringing down electricity bills and making the investment worthwhile. According to NEPRA, over 302,000 net-metering connections are now active, generating more than 4,400 MW of clean electricity. In Karachi, Faizan Ahmed installed a 10kW solar system at his home in Gulshan-e-Iqbal. Three months later, not only was the system running all his household appliances including air conditioners and heavy electronics but he was also selling surplus electricity back to the grid. 'We didn't expect this kind of performance,' said Faizan. 'Even after running everything at home, we still had extra units. By the third month, we started selling electricity back to K-Electric, and the amount was adjusted in our bill. After six months, our bill actually went into negative. That's when I realised solar isn't just saving us money, it's earning for us too.' It's not just Karachi. In Lahore's Johar Town, Fatima Khurram and her family switched to solar a year ago. Rising electricity costs were becoming unsustainable, and frequent load shedding was an added frustration. 'We had a 7kW system installed through a local vendor,' shared Fatima. 'The initial investment was heavy, but within five months, we saw the savings. No more load shedding issues, and our bills dropped from Rs. 45,000 a month to just a few hundred rupees or nothing at all when we generate more than we consume.' She adds that in summer, when ACs run for longer hours, solar covers the load effortlessly. 'It's peace of mind. I feel like we've taken control of our power,' she added. Of course, not everything is perfect. Zeeshan Rehman, a resident of Karachi who installed an 8kW solar setup last year, says that while the system has significantly reduced his dependency on grid electricity, there's some frustration with how energy companies handle buy-back rates. 'We sell our extra units to the grid at Rs. 11 per unit,' he explained. 'But when we buy back electricity at night or during cloudy days, it's charged at Rs. 30 or more per unit. That part feels unfair. Still, the overall benefit of solar can't be denied. We spent around Rs. 1 million on the system, and we expect to recover that investment in three to four years. More importantly, we're not dependent on the supply from the company anymore.' This sense of energy independence is growing in urban and semi-urban areas across the country, where erratic supply, rising bills, and fuel costs have made solar an increasingly attractive option. There are two main billing systems for solar energy users in Pakistan - net metering and gross metering The net metering is the more common method. It lets users consume the solar energy they produce first, and any extra units are sent back to the grid. These exported units are then adjusted against the electricity taken from the grid meaning your bill reflects the 'net' difference. This system has helped many users bring their electricity bills down to nearly zero. Whereas in the gross metering, all the solar energy generated is exported to the grid, and the user continues to buy electricity from the company as usual. The exported solar energy is paid at a fixed rate. This setup is less common for residential users because it doesn't allow them to offset their own consumption directly, and the rate paid by the power company is usually lower than the rate at which it sells electricity. Still, the adoption of solar energy is on the rise. A recent report by UK-based think tank Ember revealed that Pakistan imported 17 GW worth of solar panels in 2024 twice the volume of 2023. Industry insiders expect solar to make up at least 10 per cent of the national energy mix by 2030. Pakistan's rooftops are transforming into a sea of blue as solar panels sprout up everywhere. Ubaid Ullah, an energy expert in Karachi, notes, "If you look at satellite images of any Pakistani city, all the roofs appear blue." Individual necessity and market forces, rather than government policies or foreign investment drives this rapid shift. According to Ember, most new solar installations are off-grid or behind-the-meter, flying under the radar of official statistics and leaving the national grid scrambling to keep up. Amjad warns, "The role of the grid has to massively adapt to remain relevant. Rooftop solar is fast becoming the preferred energy provider." Without large-scale solar auctions or public investment, the infrastructure and regulatory systems are struggling to keep pace. Experts caution that this decentralised energy revolution could lead to instability without better planning and oversight. The "utility death spiral" is already unfolding in urban centers, where users are turning away from the public grid, eroding its financial base, and exacerbating challenges during peak evening hours. Despite these challenges, Pakistan's example offers valuable lessons for other Global South nations. Harjeet Singh, adviser to the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, emphasises, "This isn't simply about decarbonisation anymore; it's fundamentally about ensuring energy access, driving economic stability, and strengthening energy security from the ground up." As the shift towards distributed, clean energy accelerates, battery storage is expected to follow a similar grassroots trajectory. According to Renewables First's study, "The Great Solar Rush in Pakistan," Pakistan's solar boom is driven by a consumer-led model, with 15 GW of solar panels imported from China in the past fiscal year, resulting in a 10.4 per cent drop in grid electricity demand. The study highlights the need for grid modernisation and revised demand forecasts to support decentralised energy generation. As Dave Jones of Ember Energy notes, "Pakistan's model demonstrated how a booming solar market could offer a transformative path in places like South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria, offering alternative for decentralised and people-led energy transitions." With Pakistan's solar capacity expected to grow from 1.41 GW in 2024 to 9.53 GW by 2029, the future of energy in Pakistan and beyond looks bright. As the shift towards distributed, clean energy accelerates, Pakistan's example offers valuable lessons for other Global South nations. With the right mix of policy support, affordability, and public awareness, solar is no longer a far-fetched idea. It is already becoming part of everyday life. And as more people like Faizan, Fatima, and Zeeshan share their stories, it's clear that this isn't just about cutting costs it's about taking charge of your own power and contributing to a cleaner, more sustainable future. But what does this mean for Pakistan's economy? Impact on economy The growth of solar energy in Pakistan has significant implications for the country's economy and environment. According to Dr. Junaid Ahmed, Senior Research Economist at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), solar energy presents Pakistan with a strategic pathway to lower electricity generation costs, improve supply reliability, and increase productivity gain across sectors. One of the key economic benefits of solar energy is its potential to contribute to Pakistan's GDP growth. Dr. Ahmed explains that by substituting high-marginal-cost thermal generation, solar reduces the overall cost base specifically for energy-intensive industries and SMEs, which are disproportionately affected by power outages and tariff fluctuations. "These efficiency gains translate into higher capacity utilisation, improved industrial competitiveness, and increased investment activity," he told The Express Tribune. 'Over the medium term, solar contributes to capital deepening and raises energy efficiency per unit of output, directly supporting total factor productivity, one of the crucial factors of sustained economic growth.' Solar energy can also help reduce Pakistan's reliance on imported fossil fuels, which is a significant drain on the country's foreign exchange reserves. Dr. Ahmed emphasises that solar energy offers a strategic response to Pakistan's structural reliance on imported fossil fuels, a key source of external sector vulnerability. "Solar significantly reduces foreign exchange outflows and mitigates exposure to global energy price volatility by substituting recurring fuel imports with capital-intensive, domestically sourced infrastructure that requires one-time investment," he said adding that this rebalancing of the energy mix supports current account sustainability, eases pressure on foreign reserves, and contributes to a more stable balance of payments. 'By lowering the import intensity of energy generation, solar also reinforces macroeconomic stability, particularly during commodity price volatility or periods of constrained external financing' In addition to its economic benefits, solar energy also has significant labor market implications. Dr. Ahmed notes that solar expansion is labor-intensive, particularly in installation, maintenance, and localised component manufacturing. "It generates employment across skill levels and regions, supporting inclusive job creation in both urban and rural settings," he said. Moreover, solar supports SME growth by ensuring reliable energy, especially in areas with limited grid access or load shedding, enabling businesses to grow and contributing to more employment opportunities. However, Dr. Ahmed also notes that there are structural challenges that need to be addressed to scale solar energy effectively. "A key structural challenge lies in existing power agreements with Independent Power Producers (IPPs), which guarantee fixed capacity payments regardless of actual demand," he said. "As solar adoption grows and reduces net grid demand, these contracts become increasingly inefficient raising costs, distorting tariffs, and adding to the circular debt burden." To scale solar effectively, IPP contracts must be restructured to reflect current demand realities and facilitate the integration of renewables. But for this transition to really take off, Pakistan needs to equip people with the right skills. That means more training programs, certifications, and technical education to create a workforce that can meet the growing demand. Dr. Ahmed says, 'Pakistan must invest in workforce development through skill training, certification, and technical education to fully capture these labor market benefits.' At the same time, energy reliability is still a huge issue in many parts of the country. Solar offers a real solution here not just backup during loadshedding, but independence from the grid for those who want it. For small businesses and households, that kind of control over electricity can be a game changer. But investing such a huge amount is not easy for everyone, to solve this issue there are many financing options available in the country. Solar accessibility The benefits of solar energy are hard to ignore – clean power, lower electricity bills, and a reduced carbon footprint. But for many individuals and businesses in Pakistan, the high upfront cost of installing solar panels remains a major hurdle. That's slowly starting to change. Banks are stepping in to make solar energy more accessible through tailored financing options. Asim Qureshi, Head of Products and Analytics, Retail Banking at JS Bank, says the banking sector is now actively supporting a wide range of customers. 'Banks are providing solar financing options for consumers, small and medium enterprises, commercial businesses, and the agriculture sector,' he explains. But affordability isn't the only thing on a bank's checklist. When evaluating solar financing applications, banks take a close look at the applicant's financial history. 'Credit worthiness is evaluated based on the credit history, income documentation/audited financials, and equity contribution,' Qureshi adds. Of course, the lending landscape isn't without its challenges. One persistent issue has been the high customer rate largely influenced by the Key Interest Benchmark Rate (KIBOR). Fortunately, the situation is improving. 'Customer rate was high due to high KIBOR but this has started becoming competitive due to the decreasing trend of KIBOR,' he notes. To protect themselves and their customers from potential risks, banks are also taking several precautionary measures. These include working exclusively with reputable solar solution providers and conducting on-ground surveys to better understand demand and supply trends. 'We have a well reputed solution providers on the panel of approved vendors which provide pre and post installation services to the customers,' Qureshi says. A bright future Pakistan's solar energy revolution is transforming the country's energy landscape, driven by a combination of government incentives, decreasing costs, and growing awareness of climate change. The emergence of Pakistan as the largest importer of solar panels in 2024 is a testament to the rapid growth of the solar industry in the country. Solar energy is not only reducing electricity bills for households and businesses but also creating employment opportunities, improving energy security, and contributing to a more sustainable future. With the right policies and financing options in place, solar energy has the potential to drive sustainable development in Pakistan, reducing the country's reliance on imported fossil fuels and mitigating the impacts of climate change. As Pakistan continues to harness the power of the sun, it is likely to play an increasingly important role in the country's energy mix, paving the way for a cleaner, greener, and more sustainable future for generations to come.
Arab News
15-04-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan rank as top solar markets in 2024: report
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has joined the ranks of the world's leading solar markets, importing 17 gigawatts (GW) of solar panels last year alone, according to the Global Electricity Review 2025 by Ember, an energy think tank in the UK. In 2024, for the first time, solar power supplied more than 2,000 TWh of electricity, increasing by 474 TWh (+29 percent) from the previous year. This was the largest increase in generation from any power source in 2024. It took 8 years for solar to go from 100 TWh to 1,000 TWh of power — and then just 3 years to pass 2,000 TWh, meaning that solar has now been the largest source of new electricity globally for three years in a row. Solar is now so cheap that large markets can emerge in the space of a single year – as evidenced in Pakistan in 2024. Amid high electricity prices linked to expensive contracts with privately-owned thermal power stations, rooftop solar installations in Pakistan's homes and businesses soared as a means of accessing lower cost power. 'The country imported 17 GW of solar panels in 2024 to meet this growing consumer demand, double the amount imported the year before,' the Global Electricity Review 2025 said. 'Within just a year, Pakistan became one of the world's largest markets for new solar installations in 2024.' Pakistan's case shows that the low-cost, fast-to-build nature of solar power can transform electricity systems at an unprecedented rate. Updated system planning and regulatory frameworks are needed alongside this deployment to ensure a sustainable and managed transition. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia imported 16 GW in 2024, more than double the amount imported the year before. Oman saw the largest percentage growth in imports in the region, with 2.5 GW of imports in 2024 representing a fivefold increase from the year before. South Africa imported 3.8 GW of solar panels in 2024, following a record-breaking 2023 when 4.3 GW were imported as consumers turned to the technology amid rising blackouts. Nigeria and Morocco imported 1.3 GW and 1.1 GW respectively, marking the first time that either country has imported more than 1 GW in a single year. The expansion of solar power is a worldwide phenomenon, with 99 countries doubling the amount of electricity they produce from solar power in the last five years. The majority of solar generation now comes from non-OECD countries (58 percent), with China alone making up 39 percent of the global total. Increases in generation have been achieved thanks to the pace of capacity additions, the Global Electricity Review said. The world installed a record 585 gigawatts of solar capacity last year – 30 percent more than in 2023, and more than double the amount installed in 2022. Having surpassed 1 TW of solar power in 2022, it took only two years to install the next 1 TW. 'This is not just unprecedented for solar power – it is a rate of growth that no power source has seen before. In fact, the solar capacity installed in 2024 is more than the annual capacity installations of all fuels combined in any year before 2023,' the Global Electricity Review 2025 report added. As solar's share of the global electricity mix has risen to 6.9 percent of global generation in 2024, some countries are showing it is possible to incorporate much larger amounts. There are now 21 countries that generate more than 15 percent of their electricity from solar power, up from just three countries five years ago.
Arab News
14-04-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia became world's largest markets for new solar installations in 2024 — report
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has joined the ranks of the world's leading solar markets, importing 17 gigawatts (GW) of solar panels last year alone, according to the Global Electricity Review 2025 by Ember, an energy think tank in the UK. In 2024, for the first time, solar power supplied more than 2,000 TWh of electricity, increasing by 474 TWh (+29 percent) from the previous year. This was the largest increase in generation from any power source in 2024. It took 8 years for solar to go from 100 TWh to 1,000 TWh of power — and then just 3 years to pass 2,000 TWh, meaning that solar has now been the largest source of new electricity globally for three years in a row. Solar is now so cheap that large markets can emerge in the space of a single year – as evidenced in Pakistan in 2024. Amid high electricity prices linked to expensive contracts with privately-owned thermal power stations, rooftop solar installations in Pakistan's homes and businesses soared as a means of accessing lower cost power. 'The country imported 17 GW of solar panels in 2024 to meet this growing consumer demand, double the amount imported the year before,' the Global Electricity Review 2025 said. 'Within just a year, Pakistan became one of the world's largest markets for new solar installations in 2024.' Pakistan's case shows that the low-cost, fast-to-build nature of solar power can transform electricity systems at an unprecedented rate. Updated system planning and regulatory frameworks are needed alongside this deployment to ensure a sustainable and managed transition. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia imported 16 GW in 2024, more than double the amount imported the year before. Oman saw the largest percentage growth in imports in the region, with 2.5 GW of imports in 2024 representing a fivefold increase from the year before. South Africa imported 3.8 GW of solar panels in 2024, following a record-breaking 2023 when 4.3 GW were imported as consumers turned to the technology amid rising blackouts. Nigeria and Morocco imported 1.3 GW and 1.1 GW respectively, marking the first time that either country has imported more than 1 GW in a single year. The expansion of solar power is a worldwide phenomenon, with 99 countries doubling the amount of electricity they produce from solar power in the last five years. The majority of solar generation now comes from non-OECD countries (58 percent), with China alone making up 39 percent of the global total. Increases in generation have been achieved thanks to the pace of capacity additions, the Global Electricity Review said. The world installed a record 585 gigawatts of solar capacity last year – 30% more than in 2023, and more than double the amount installed in 2022. Having surpassed 1 TW of solar power in 2022, it took only two years to install the next 1 TW. 'This is not just unprecedented for solar power – it is a rate of growth that no power source has seen before. In fact, the solar capacity installed in 2024 is more than the annual capacity installations of all fuels combined in any year before 2023,' the Global Electricity Review 2025 report added. As solar's share of the global electricity mix has risen to 6.9 percent of global generation in 2024, some countries are showing it is possible to incorporate much larger amounts. There are now 21 countries that generate more than 15 percent of their electricity from solar power, up from just three countries five years ago.
Express Tribune
14-04-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Here's why Pakistan quietly became world's biggest solar importer in 2024
Listen to article Pakistan has unexpectedly become one of the world's top importers of solar panels, importing 17 gigawatts' worth in 2024 alone—more than doubling its intake from the previous year, according to the Global Electricity Review 2025 by UK-based think tank Ember. This growth has occurred without sweeping government mandates or international green finance. Instead, it is being driven by a bottom-up surge in rooftop solar installations across households, small businesses and commercial users seeking relief from rising energy costs and chronic power outages, according to the report published in The Independent. 'It marks a structural shift in how energy is perceived in Pakistan,' Muhammad Mustafa Amjad, programme director at Renewables First, told the outlet. He described the solar boom as a 'survival response' in a country increasingly priced out of its unreliable grid. Aerial satellite imagery of Pakistani cities shows rooftops rapidly turning blue as solar panels proliferate. Ubaid Ullah, an energy expert based in Karachi, said: 'If you look at satellite images of any Pakistani city, all the roofs appear blue.' Unlike most energy transitions shaped by national policies or foreign investment, Pakistan's shift is being driven largely by market logic and individual necessity. According to Ember, the majority of new installations are off-grid or behind-the-meter, escaping inclusion in official statistics and leaving the national grid playing catch-up. 'The role of the grid has to massively adapt to remain relevant,' Amjad added. 'Rooftop solar is fast becoming the preferred energy provider.' With no large-scale solar auctions or major public investment programmes, the infrastructure and regulatory systems have struggled to keep pace. Experts warn this decentralised energy revolution may lead to instability unless planning and oversight improve. The so-called 'utility death spiral'—where users turn away from the public grid, eroding its financial base—is already unfolding in urban centres, exacerbating challenges during peak evening hours. Still, Pakistan's example provides important lessons for other Global South nations. As Harjeet Singh, adviser to the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, explained: 'This isn't simply about decarbonisation anymore; it's fundamentally about ensuring energy access, driving economic stability, and strengthening energy security from the ground up.' Battery storage is expected to follow a similar grassroots trajectory, further accelerating the shift towards distributed, clean energy.
The Independent
14-04-2025
- Business
- The Independent
How Pakistan quietly became world's biggest solar importer
There was no sweeping law, no global investment blitz, no prime minister announcing a green revolution. And yet, by the end of 2024, Pakistan imported more solar panels than almost any other nation in the world. The South Asian country, facing economic challenges and high energy poverty, is witnessing one of the most unexpected clean energy success stories of the decade. Pakistan has joined the ranks of the world's leading solar markets, importing 17 gigawatts of solar panels last year alone, according to the Global Electricity Review 2025 by Ember, an energy think tank in the UK. This surge represents a doubling of the previous year's imports, and makes Pakistan one of the top global buyers of solar panels. The scale of Pakistan's imports is particularly striking because it is not driven by a national programme or utility-scale rollout. Instead, the majority of the demand appears to come from rooftop solar installations by households, small businesses and commercial users looking to secure cheaper and more reliable electricity in the face of frequent power outages and rising energy costs. According to Ember's report, rooftop solar installations in homes and businesses in the country has soared as a 'means of accessing lower-cost power'. Pakistan's experts echo this analysis. Muhammad Mustafa Amjad, programme director at Renewables First, tells The Independent that the solar boom is best understood as a 'survival response' by people and businesses that were 'increasingly being priced out of the grid due to inefficient planning and unreliable supply'. 'It marks a structural shift,' he adds, 'in how energy is perceived in Pakistan.' Pakistan's solar panel imports in fiscal year 2024 alone, Mr Amjad says, amount to roughly half of the national peak power demand. 'Rooftop solar is fast becoming the preferred energy provider,' he adds. 'And the role of the grid has to massively adapt in order to remain relevant in a fast-transitioning energy economy.' Ubaid Ullah, an energy expert in Karachi, argues that the energy transition is driven by people taking matters into their own hands. 'If you look at satellite images of any Pakistani city,' he tells The Independent, ' all the roofs appear blue, covered in solar panels.' In a region often plagued by grid instability, solar panels have emerged as a practical alternative to unreliable public supply. The sharp increase in imports in 2024 follows years of worsening power cuts, fluctuating tariffs, and high costs associated with diesel generators and imported fuels. Rather than waiting for national reforms, many Pakistanis began adopting solar technologies directly – often installing panels and inverters without much reliance on subsidies or centralised planning. This makes Pakistan's solar growth somewhat unusual in the global landscape. In many countries, solar adoption has been closely tied to climate policy or international financing. Pakistan's solar boom, in contrast, appears to be a response to market logic and local necessity, not climate diplomacy. The Ember report notes that Pakistan's growth is happening largely 'outside formal energy planning frameworks'. Industry experts say there is minimal direct government intervention in Pakistan's solar journey. In fact, the infrastructure is struggling to keep up. While regulators have approved net metering policies and eased import restrictions in recent years, there have been no major public spending programmes or large-scale solar auctions to match the pace of adoption seen at the household or commercial level. Despite importing record volumes of solar panels, Pakistan's official grid-connected solar capacity remains far lower, indicating that much of the new solar is operating off-grid or behind the meter, where it escapes inclusion in national electricity statistics. This divergence between on-the-ground installations and official planning is already raising concerns. Grid operators and utility companies are struggling to adapt to the effects of widespread self-generation, particularly in urban areas where high-value customers are increasingly generating their own electricity during the day and relying on the grid only as the backup. The dynamic, sometimes referred to as a 'utility death spiral', can erode the financial base of public energy providers while placing new pressure on infrastructure during peak evening hours. In its analysis, Ember warns that this kind of rapid, decentralised growth requires updated planning and regulatory tools to avoid instability. 'Updated system planning and regulatory frameworks are needed alongside this deployment to ensure a sustainable and managed transition,' the report says. While the focus has been on solar, Pakistan's broader renewable energy mix includes growing contributions from wind, hydropower, and bioenergy. However, solar is by far the fastest-moving segment, particularly because it can be deployed at small scale with minimal bureaucratic friction. In a country with long-standing challenges around governance and infrastructure delivery, the modular nature of solar technology has enabled adoption even in the absence of large public investment. The 2024 import figures reflect more than a spike in consumer interest. They also speak to the declining costs of solar technology globally, particularly for modules manufactured in China, which dominates international supply chains. Falling equipment prices, combined with volatile local fuel costs and persistent power shortages, have made solar one of the most economically viable energy solutions in Pakistan today. Despite this, significant gaps remain in how the transition is being managed. With little oversight of system quality, storage deployment or grid balancing mechanisms, Pakistan risks undermining the long-term benefits of its clean energy expansion. In the absence of stronger data, more transparent planning and investment in modernising the grid, the current surge may exacerbate existing inequalities in access and reliability. Still, the broader message from Pakistan's experience is clear: clean energy adoption is no longer limited to wealthy nations or high-emitting economies. When the economics work, and the barriers are low, energy transitions can take root quickly – even in places where policy has historically lagged ambition. What's happening in Pakistan may be messy and uneven, but it holds global significance. It offers a blueprint – or at least a suggestion – of how energy transitions might look in much of the Global South. Not as a carefully orchestrated top-down process, but as a decentralised, demand-led shift driven by necessity and economics. According to Mr Amjad, this makes Pakistan an early example of a new energy model. 'For Global South economies,' he says, 'this presents an alternative bottom-up, people-led, and market-driven model of energy transition – one that provides secure, distributed, and democratised access to clean and affordable energy.' Battery storage, he adds, is likely to follow the same trajectory as solar – cheap, modular and adopted quickly at the edge of the grid, not the centre. 'With the price of batteries following a similar trajectory to solar, the pace of energy transition across Global South countries will definitely accelerate, as the volatility around imported fuels continues to encourage renewable growth.' Harjeet Singh, strategic adviser to the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, says Pakistan's story shows solar is not just a green option, but an affordable one. 'The phenomenal growth of solar energy in countries like Pakistan underscores that solar is no longer just an environmental choice – it's a powerful economic solution, especially for the developing world. Faced with volatile fossil fuel prices, soaring electricity bills, and often unreliable grids, households and businesses are embracing solar because it offers a cheaper, cleaner, and more dependable source of power,' Mr Singh says. 'This isn't simply about decarbonisation anymore; it's fundamentally about ensuring energy access, driving economic stability, and strengthening energy security from the ground up.'
