Latest news with #GrossDomesticProduct
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump vs. Economists: Will GDP Growth Surge to Historic 9% Rate?
President Donald Trump disputed the Congressional Budget Office's 1.8% estimate for annual economic growth over the next decade, predicting the U.S. economy could as much as quintuple that growth rate. If GDP reached 9% economic growth, it would be the fastest expansion since 1943. Professional forecasters give this about a 0% chance of happening. The growth projections have implications for the Republicans' spending bill now being considered in the Senate. Higher growth would mean more room for tax cuts and spending, and smaller federal budget the economy on track to have its fastest growth since 1943? President Donald Trump thinks it could be, but professional forecasters say there's no made his bold economic prediction on Friday in a social media post. In it, he disputed the Congressional Budget Office's projection for the inflation-adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow at an annual rate averaging 1.8% over the next decade. Trump said the economy could as much as quintuple the CBO's estimated growth rate. The CBO's growth-rate predictions are significant to Trump's public policy priorities. The CBO is tasked with providing budget and economic information to Congress so its members can make informed voting decisions. And the Republican budget bill passed by the House of Representatives needs a fast-growing economy to balance two of Trump's major fiscal priorities—cutting taxes while decreasing the deficit. The higher the economic growth, the more tax revenue the government will collect and the smaller spending deficits will be. The nonpartisan budget research group estimated the Republican bill will increase spending deficits by $3.8 trillion through 2034 if average growth is 1.8% each year. Trump said those estimates are too pessimistic and accused the research group of being biased against him."The Democrat inspired and 'controlled' Congressional Budget Office (CBO) purposefully gave us an EXTREMELY LOW level of Growth, 1.8% over 10 years," Trump posted on social media. "I predict we will do 3, 4, or even 5 times the amount they purposefully 'allotted' to us (1.8%) and, with just our minimum expected 3% Growth, we will more than offset our Tax Cuts (which will, in actuality, cost us no money!)" Five times the CBO's estimated 1.8% growth rate would be 9%. Growth at this level would be a historic economic boom. GDP has grown at an average rate of 2.5% a year since 1990, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDP growth has surged several times to rebound from recessions. The most dramatic example was during World War II, when the economy grew at double-digit rates: 1943 was the last year the GDP grew at a rate of 9% or more. The best year for GDP growth in recent times was 2021, when the economy grew 6.1% as it bounced back from the pandemic if any professional economists see 9% economic growth in the cards any time soon. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveyed professional forecasters earlier in May and found the median forecast for growth in 2025 was 1.4%, more pessimistic than the CBO projected for the year, and 2% in 2028. The forecasters gave zero probability of 9% economic growth in 2025 or any year through 2028. The GDP is headed the wrong direction in 2025 so far, shrinking at a rate of 0.2% annually in the first quarter. Read the original article on Investopedia
Scoop
09-05-2025
- Business
- Scoop
UN Secretary-General Appoints High-Level Expert Group On Beyond GDP
The Secretary-General has today appointed an independent High-Level Expert Group to develop recommendations for measures that complement or go beyond Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The appointment of the Expert Group follows a request by Member States in the Pact for the Future and reflects a shared and long-standing goal. When adopting the Sustainable Development Goals in 2015, Member States committed to the development of measures of progress that complement GDP by 2030. They did so in recognition that GDP, which is heavily relied upon as a gauge of prosperity and is the basis for government targets and rankings, provides an incomplete picture of the different dimensions of sustainable development. 'This initiative could not be timelier. Every day, we witness the consequences of our failure to balance economic, social and environmental dimensions of development,' the Secretary-General said. 'To achieve the progress we need, the well-being of people and the planet must be at the centre of what we measure and value. Measures that complement GDP can enable a paradigm shift in policymaking that refocuses efforts on sustainable development and prosperity for all,' he underscored. In Our Common Agenda and the supporting Policy Brief on Valuing What Counts: Framework to Progress Beyond Gross Domestic Product, the Secretary-General elaborated the case for this initiative. He emphasized the need to overcome a 'harmful anachronism' at the heart of global policy making, in which our current metrics overlook many aspects that contribute to human well-being, while at the same time valuing some activities that harm people and planet. Complementary metrics are therefore crucial to expand the data on which policy decisions and prioritizations are made. Ultimately, these metrics can drive behavior change in how societies think about and pursue progress. In the Pact for the Future, Member States recognized that 'sustainable development must be pursued in a balanced and integrated manner', and requested the creation of an Expert Group to identify complementary metrics. Today's announcement marks an important step in this endeavor. About the High-Level Expert Group The Expert Group will be tasked with elaborating a conceptual framework that identifies key dimensions of progress, and developing an initial list of corresponding country-owned, universally-applicable indicators of sustainable development to form a dashboard that equips governments with the information they need. In addition, it will provide guidance on the deployment of the dashboard to maximize its uptake, and on priorities for data collection and statistical capacity to operationalize the dashboard and indicators. The Expert Group will closely consult with Member States and key stakeholders throughout the process, taking into account the work of the UN Statistical Commission, and building on the global indicator framework for the Sustainable Development Goals. The High-Level Expert Group will present the outcome of its work during the eightieth session of the General Assembly, which will inform a subsequent intergovernmental process. The 14 members of the independent Expert Group represent eminent scholars and experts from various domains, as well as reflecting gender and geographical diversity. The Expert Group will be led by two co-chairs, Mr. Kaushik Basu and Ms. Nora Lustig, and be supported by a technical secretariat composed of staff from the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), the UN Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the Executive Office of the Secretary-General (EOSG). High-Level Expert Group Members The High-Level Expert Group members – all working in their personal capacity – include:
Euronews
28-04-2025
- Business
- Euronews
Week ahead: Eurozone inflation, Apple and Meta earnings in focus
ADVERTISEMENT Global markets rebounded last week on a broad-based rally amid signs of de-escalation in the US-China trade war. Investors will continue to monitor major economic data this week, including the eurozone's monthly inflation figures and the United States' jobs report. Additionally, major US technology companies, including Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, are set to report their quarterly earnings. The market will particularly focus on Apple, as the company may face challenges stemming from the trade war. What to watch in Europe The eurozone is scheduled to release its flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April this Friday. Annual inflation in the Eurozone fell to 2.2% in March, easing from 2.3% in the previous month and marking the lowest level since November 2024. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also cooled to 2.4% from 2.6% in February, the slowest pace since October 2021. Consumer prices declined across most major European economies, including Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, and Belgium. However, inflation remained steady in France and accelerated in Italy in March. Major economies, including Spain, Germany, France, and Italy, will also release preliminary inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the first quarter. The GDP growth data will be critical for gauging the eurozone's economic trajectory. Consensus suggests that eurozone inflation may continue retreating to 2.1% in April, although core CPI is expected to rise slightly to 2.5%. Nonetheless, consumer prices appear on track to return to the European Central Bank (ECB)'s 2% target. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently stated that the disinflation process in the eurozone is nearly complete and the bank will continue its 'data-dependent' approach regarding interest rate decisions. However, US tariffs have deteriorated the region's economic outlook, requiring the ECB to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy stance. Officials at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted last week that the negative impact of US tariffs on the eurozone's economic outlook is more significant than the positive effect of the bloc's fiscal reforms. The ECB has cut interest rates seven times since June last year, bringing the key deposit rate down to 2.25%. Analysts expect the bank to reduce the rate once more in June and maintain it at 2% for the remainder of the year. Related ECB's Lagarde: Trade tariffs are a negative shock for the eurozone What to watch in the United States In the US, first-quarter GDP figures and April's non-farm payrolls will be the focal points for financial markets. The American economy added 228,000 jobs in March, far exceeding expectations, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% due to a higher participation rate. Stronger-than-expected job growth eased concerns that the US was falling into recession earlier in April. However, with tariffs now taking effect—albeit at a lower rate for most countries—the economic impact could become more pronounced, making the latest job data critical for market sentiment. Consensus estimates suggest 129,000 jobs were added to the labour force in April, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. The US will also release its advance GDP estimate for the first quarter, with economists forecasting a sharp slowdown as tariff-driven economic uncertainty bites. Expectations are for the economy to have grown by only 0.3%, compared with 2.4% in the final quarter of last year. Furthermore, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, will also be closely watched. As for Apple's fiscal second-quarter earnings, the company is expected to report 4% year-on-year revenue growth and a 5% annual increase in earnings. Sales may have been bolstered ahead of tariffs taking effect, especially as Trump exempted electronic products from the 125% tariffs on China. However, Apple still faces 20% import duties on goods manufactured in China, where it produces most of its products. The company reportedly plans to shift all US-sold iPhone production to India by the end of 2026. Related Apple plans to switch US iPhone assembly to India in blow to China What to watch in the Asia-Pacific region In the Asia-Pacific region, attention will centre on the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) rate decision this week. The BOJ is expected to keep interest rates steady amid mounting economic concerns linked to US tariffs. Governor Kazuo Ueda stated last week that the bank would continue raising rates if underlying inflation moves towards its 2% target. However, he noted that tariffs would likely impact the stability of consumer prices and weigh on economic growth. Elsewhere, investors will closely watch China's manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for April and Australia's first-quarter CPI, both due for release on Wednesday.
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Business Standard
22-04-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Resetting the base year for CPI-AL/RL likely to impact minimum wages
After almost four decades, the government is planning to revise the base year for CPI for agri and rural workers, with more weightage likely to be given to items such as health and education Shiva Rajora New Delhi Listen to This Article Nearly four decades since its last iteration, the central government is planning to revise the base year of the consumer price index for agricultural labourers/rural labourers (AL/RL) to better capture price increases experienced by these categories of workers. The base year revision is part of a broader effort by the government to introduce new series for several key macroeconomic indicators, including the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Currently, the base years for CPI and CPI-IW (industrial workers) are 2012 and 2016 respectively, while the base year for CPI-AL/RL is at
Zawya
12-03-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Agri-Fish Fund: A strategic partner in achieving Oman Vision 2040
The Agricultural and Fisheries Development Fund plays a pivotal role in Oman's food security system and serves as a fundamental pillar in realizing the objectives of Oman Vision 2040. The Fund aligns its strategies and programs with the requirements of this ambitious vision, focusing on key areas that resonate with the Sultanate's national priorities. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Environmental sustainability, a core pillar of Oman Vision 2040, is at the forefront of the Fund's initiatives, particularly in addressing climate change challenges and water scarcity. The Fund finances projects that employ modern irrigation and water resource management technologies while promoting the use of non-traditional water sources in agriculture. It also prioritizes biodiversity conservation by supporting projects that preserve indigenous livestock breeds and local plant varieties. ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION In line with Oman Vision 2040's goal of economic diversification, the Fund is committed to increasing the agricultural and fisheries sectors' contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It achieves this by financing projects that add value to local products, developing value chains, and supporting agro-industrial and fisheries-related processing industries. By investing in these projects, the Fund contributes to diversifying income sources and reducing dependency on oil, thus reinforcing the economic and development pillar of the Vision, which aims to build a diversified and sustainable economy. INNOVATION AND DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION Recognizing the significance of knowledge-based economies within Oman Vision 2040, the Fund actively supports innovation and digital transformation. This is evident in its backing of e-marketing initiatives for fisheries products, the adoption of advanced agricultural and livestock production technologies, and the encouragement of food security-related innovations. HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT The Fund places great emphasis on empowering rural and coastal women, enhancing the skills of farmers and fishermen, and creating job opportunities for Omani youth in the agricultural and fisheries sectors. These efforts align with Oman Vision 2040's objectives of human capital development and social participation. PUBLIC-PRIVATE SECTOR PARTNERSHIPS The Fund is dedicated to strengthening public-private partnerships, a key element of Oman Vision 2040. This is reflected in its initiatives to attract private sector investments in agricultural, fisheries, and livestock projects, as well as its support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) within these sectors. FOOD SECURITY The Fund plays a crucial role in enhancing food security by increasing self-sufficiency in essential food commodities, developing food supply chains, and ensuring the quality and safety of food products. These objectives align with Oman Vision 2040's commitment to achieving sustainable food security. TRANSITION TO A GREEN ECONOMY The Fund actively supports the transition to a green economy by financing sustainable agriculture projects, promoting responsible aquaculture, and encouraging the use of renewable energy in production processes. KEY PRINCIPLES GUIDING THE FUND'S ROLE IN OMAN VISION 2040 The Fund tailors its programs to meet the requirements of Oman Vision 2040 through the following key principles: 1. Supporting Advanced Technologies – Promoting modern agricultural and fisheries techniques, such as hydroponics and protected farming, to enhance productivity and sustainability. 2. Financing Innovative Projects – Prioritizing projects that offer innovative solutions to agricultural and fisheries challenges, fostering competitiveness and innovation in these sectors. 3. Strengthening Partnerships – Collaborating with government entities, private sector stakeholders, and international organizations to exchange expertise and enhance development efforts. 4. Developing Infrastructure – Investing in infrastructure that benefits the agricultural and fisheries sectors, such as marketing facilities, improved transportation, and storage solutions to ensure high-quality product distribution. 5. Combating Pests and Diseases – Supporting pest and disease prevention and control programs to safeguard agricultural and fisheries production, ensuring product quality and safety. By integrating these strategic pillars, the Agricultural and Fisheries Development Fund emerges as a key partner in realizing Oman Vision 2040. It contributes to building a diversified and sustainable economy, achieving food security, generating employment opportunities for Omani citizens, and preserving natural resources for future generations. 2022 © All right reserved for Oman Establishment for Press, Publication and Advertising (OEPPA) Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (
