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Mint
2 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Trump's crackdown on migrants: Will the American dream turn sour for Indians?
It is not a good time to be a migrant in the US. Crackdowns on migrants, including on those with legal rights to stay, have increased dramatically in recent months since Donald Trump took over as US president. Los Angeles is currently seeing a wave of violence after migrants resisted arrest by immigration authorities. This resistance is, in turn, fuelling further violent crackdowns on civilian populations in the city. Any long-term changes in US policies on migrants will have implications for Indians who have moved there—including green card holders having permanent resident status and those who have gone to the US for study, work, or to be with family. Indian-origin population in the US was estimated at about 3.4 million in 2023, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The Indian diaspora is the second-largest foreign population in the US, after the Mexican diaspora. Over the previous three decades, Indians have increased their share in each of the visa types issued by the US to non-immigrants for four main purposes: tourism, studies, work, and to visit dependents. In 2022-23, Indians accounted for 86% of the US's H-4 visas (intended for dependents of foreign workers), 78% of H1-B visas (work visas), and 29% of student visas. In addition, and perhaps more importantly, Indians accounted for about 14% of US green cards issued in 2022, up sharply from about 8% a decade earlier. Post-covid surge The broader context is that overall migration to the US, including by those on non-permanent visas (like student visas, but excluding tourists), has risen sharply in the post-covid period. While estimates by different arms of the US government vary sharply, the rise is unmistakable. The Congressional Budget Office, whose estimate of 3.3 million net migration to the US in 2024 is among the highest, predicts that net migration will fall to 2.6 million in 2025 and 1.6 million in 2026. The post-covid surge was partly a recovery from the sharp slump caused by the pandemic, when strong international travel restrictions were in place. It is also a result of economic weakness in source countries in the post-covid period and a strong demand for workers in the US itself. According to a study by the Hamilton Project in the US, the surge in immigration added 0.1 percentage points to the US GDP in each of the years from 2022 to 2024. Indians abroad Post-covid, inward migration soared not just in the US but in high-income countries collectively. As per the OECD, its 38 member countries saw 'unprecedented levels" of around 6 million new migrants in 2022, excluding those from war-hit Ukraine. In 2023, per OECD's estimate, about 150 million people living in its member countries were foreign-born, whith about a third of them living in the US. About 6.5 million Indians live in OECD countries, over half of them in the US. Indians now make up about 10% of the foreign-born population in countries such as Canada, Australia, and the UK. Some of these countries are imposing restrictions on migration, although several of them have ageing populations and depend on migrants to fill gaps in their labour force. Remittance economy As part of his clampdown on foreign migrants, Trump has proposed a 3.5% tax on foreign remittances by non-citizens in the US. This comes at a time when the US, and rich Western countries in general, have become more critical to India's remittance economy. In 2023-24, India received remittances of $118.7 billion. Less than a decade ago, West Asian countries such as the UAE were the principal source. Now, it's the US, with its share rising from 22.9% in 2016-17 to 27.7% in 2023-24, as per the Reserve Bank of India. It's debatable what effect any tax on such remittances may have. A large proportion of remitters could use non-official channels to avoid the tax. According to RBI, 78% of Indian migrants to the US are employed in high-income sectors such as management, business, and science. In contrast, workers in the Gulf have tended to be manual labourers employed in construction or real estate. These may be uncertain times for all. is a database and search engine for public data
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Business Standard
30-04-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
100 days of Trump: Immigrants, international students, refugees in a limbo
April 30 marks 100 days since US President Donald Trump took office for the second time. In this short span, his administration has introduced sweeping changes to the country's immigration system, reshaping border enforcement, legal migration, humanitarian pathways and visa rules. While the focus has been on restricting entry and stepping up deportations, there are some pro-immigration proposals too, though they remain limited and largely unimplemented. 'Trump's policies seem to be a blend of economic priorities and stringent immigration reform. While there are opportunities for highly skilled Indian professionals and students with advanced degrees, the environment remains challenging for those not aligned with specific labour market needs,' Prashant Ajmera, immigration lawyer at Ajmera Law Group told Business Standard. Ajmera pointed to sectors like artificial intelligence, renewable energy and healthcare as offering relatively secure pathways. 'Strategic education and career planning are now more important than ever,' he said. Many of the administration's decisions have already landed in court. Some measures to restrict university grants and student visas have been stayed. For example, the F-1 visa programme — which had initially faced suspension — was reinstated following judicial intervention. 'One of my clients, whose F-1 visa was affected, was called back to submit her passport. Her visa will be reissued, and she can now resume her studies,' said Ajmera. Even where reforms may be necessary, Ajmera said extreme measures have backfired. 'The system is resilient. Aspirants must stay vigilant and adaptive,' he said. Legal and labour divide 'Trump's first 100 days have created mixed outcomes for Indian immigrants and students,' Aurelia Menezes, partner at King Stubb & Kasiva, Advocates and Attorneys told Business Standard. According to Menezes, there are two student-focused opportunities under discussion: A green card for graduates — intended to retain skilled talent A merit-based immigration system — prioritising employability and education 'The green card policy is more concrete. The merit-based model is still being advocated, but we don't know how or when it may take shape,' she said. Alongside these, several restrictions are already being felt: < Mandatory identity documents for all immigrants in the US, with risk of deportation or detention for non-compliance < Limits on Optional Practical Training (OPT) and STEM extensions, which many students use to gain work experience and transition to H-1B < Shortened visa durations to four years, causing uncertainty for PhD and graduate students < Growing visa denials, requests for evidence, and delays for H-1B and H-4 holders, affecting families that rely on dual incomes 'It feels more like a crackdown than a reform. For many, it's proving to be a bane rather than a boon,' said Menezes. Proposed gold card to replace EB-5 The administration has floated a new 'Gold Card' programme that would offer permanent residency to wealthy foreign investors willing to invest at least $5 million. This is being considered as a replacement for the EB-5 investor visa, which currently requires an investment of $800,000 to $1.05 million, depending on location and project. While no formal legislation has been introduced, President Trump has described the Gold Card as a way to "bring in the best investors from around the world." Some experts believe the price point may restrict demand, especially from emerging markets. Border as a battleground Proclamation 10886, issued on January 20, declared a national emergency and called unauthorised migration an "invasion." Executive Order 14167 followed, deploying 10,000 troops and allocating $376 million to border security. National Security Presidential Memorandum 4 granted military control over certain federal lands, where migrants could be detained for trespassing. The border wall is back in focus too. In March, $70 million was sanctioned for seven miles of new barriers in Texas. Border encounters have plummeted — just 7,181 in March 2025, a 95% fall from the same month last year. Inside the deportation machinery The White House has declared a target of one million deportations a year. By comparison, the previous high was 267,000 in 2019. ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) has been instructed to: < Expand expedited removal to cover undocumented individuals anywhere in the US < Meet daily arrest quotas of 1,200 to 1,500 < Permit enforcement at previously protected spaces like schools, hospitals and places of worship < Revive controversial 287(g) agreements allowing local police to enforce federal immigration laws As of April 2025, 456 such agreements are in place across 38 states. However, only 12,300 individuals were removed in March 2025, reflecting legal, operational and funding constraints. Detention centres are already overcrowded, and many deportation orders are being challenged in court. Shutting humanitarian routes Several humanitarian pathways introduced under the Biden administration have been shut down: CBP One app was suspended, leaving 270,000 migrants stranded in Mexico Central American Minors programme terminated Parole revoked for migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela Refugee admissions suspended, cancelling over 10,000 scheduled flights Temporary Protected Status (TPS) has been revoked for nationals from Venezuela, Haiti, Afghanistan and Cameroon, though courts have paused some terminations. Refugees and parolees in limbo A new executive order has declared refugee admissions will resume only if they serve "national interest." Resettlement agencies report mass layoffs due to stalled processing. About 600,000 refugees were under consideration when admissions were frozen. Uniting for Ukraine and Afghan parolees are currently exempt. Meanwhile, parole revocation notices were sent to nearly a million CBP One app users, instructing them to leave the US or face a permanent ban. Detention doubled ICE has increased detention capacity, with plans to reach 100,000 beds. Over 49,000 individuals were in custody as of early April. Key moves: $45 billion proposed for new detention infrastructure Reopening of family detention centres in Texas Plans for mass detention at military bases including Guantanamo Bay Advocacy groups report: Overcrowded facilities Poor hygiene and medical care Revived family detention raising mental health concerns, especially for children Visa revocations spark fear Nearly 1,500 student visas were revoked under a new 'Catch and Revoke' programme, using AI to scan social media for perceived extremist content. Most affected students were unaware of their visa status until they received emails from DHS. After widespread backlash, the government said on April 25 it would reverse the cancellations and review procedures. Free speech, citizenship, and English Executive Order 14160, signed by Trump, seeks to end birthright citizenship for children born in the US to undocumented immigrants or temporary visa holders. Multiple courts have blocked this order, and the Supreme Court will hear arguments on May 15. Another order has declared English the official language of the United States, removing funding for translation services. Critics say it will disproportionately affect 68 million Americans who speak a language other than English at home. Legal battles continue The administration's use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport Venezuelans, without hearings, is being contested in courts. In one case, 137 men were sent to a prison in El Salvador without charge. The Supreme Court ruled they must be given notice and a chance to contest removal. Further litigation is underway against expanded military detention, refugee programme changes, and student visa revocations. The US government is preparing to introduce a new policy to govern the termination of SEVIS records, following lawsuits from international students over wrongful visa cancellations. SEVIS, or the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System, is the database used to track compliance of international students with their visa conditions. Last week, a federal judge in Georgia issued Temporary Restraining Orders (TROs) directing the reinstatement of SEVIS records for 133 students, including Indians, who claimed their visa status was wrongly terminated. The students, holding F-1 and M-1 visas, alleged that their SEVIS records were closed after law enforcement checks, often involving no criminal convictions or charges. The sudden cancellations left students panicked and confused, with many unaware they were even under scrutiny. A government lawyer later told a federal court in Oakland, California, that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was reversing the terminations. In a statement read in court and emailed to lawyers, the government said it was working on a framework to guide SEVIS record terminations going forward. 'ICE is developing a policy that will provide a framework for SEVIS record terminations. Until such a policy is issued, the SEVIS records for plaintiff(s) in this case (and other similarly situated plaintiffs) will remain Active or shall be re-activated if not currently active and ICE will not modify the record solely based on the NCIC finding that resulted in the recent SEVIS record termination,' the statement read.
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Business Standard
28-04-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
H-4 kids of Indian H-1B workers face US visa expiry at 21: What next?
Children of Indian H-1B visa holders in the United States are grappling with an uncertain future as they approach their 21st birthday. Once they reach adulthood, they can no longer remain on dependent H-4 visas tied to their parents' employment, forcing them to find a new legal status or leave the country. Historically, a two-year grace period helped ease this transition. But recent changes to immigration regulations and pending court cases have left many unsure whether that option will survive. Impact of DACA ruling The uncertainty has deepened after a Texas court ruling last month halted work permits for new applicants under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programme. DACA had offered two-year temporary protection from deportation for those who lost dependent status at 21, giving them time to adjust their situation. Without DACA, Indian youths who age out are left even more vulnerable. Many families are also waiting between 12 and 100 years for green card processing, stretching hopes ever thinner. What happens when dependent visas expire? H-4 status for dependent children ends either when they turn 21 or if the H-1B parent's employment ends. To stay legally in the US, switching to a full-time student visa (F-1) is the most common route. 'Children of individuals on employment-based visas (such as H-1B, L-1, or O-1) can only remain as dependents until they turn 21. On their 21st birthday, their status automatically expires,' Aaron Blumberg, Partner at US-based immigration law firm Fragomen told Business Standard. Blumberg explained that before this happens, the child must either: Depart the US, Switch to another legal status such as F-1 student visa, Or obtain a green card. 'The EB-5 category is different, as it is a pathway to permanent residence. For employment-based green card applications (EB-1, EB-2, EB-3, EB-5), children must generally get their green cards before turning 21. However, the Child Status Protection Act (CSPA) can sometimes allow eligibility beyond 21 depending on case-by-case analysis,' Blumberg added. Risks of overstaying without status Remaining in the US without valid status is dangerous, Blumberg warned. 'Remaining in the US without valid status carries significant risks and is strongly discouraged. The 21st birthday is a known milestone, allowing enough time to plan a strategy for either a status change or departure,' he said. Planning well in advance, he explained, is critical to avoid slipping into unlawful presence, which could lead to deportation. Policy shifts during Trump era According to Blumberg, dependents are facing more delays and scrutiny in visa processing. 'Visa applicants, including those applying for extensions, are facing increased scrutiny and vetting. We anticipate longer processing times and delays as a result of these heightened review procedures. It is important to plan ahead and submit extension requests early to minimise disruptions,' he said. Is there any relief for H-4 visa holders? There is some relief available for spouses on H-4 visas. 'Yes, H-4 spouses may be eligible for work authorisation if their H-1B spouse has an approved I-140 (a key green card step). If granted, the H-4 spouse will receive an Employment Authorization Document (EAD), allowing them to work without restrictions, including self-employment or working for multiple employers,' Blumberg explained. Complications for dependents when H-4 visas expire Ajay Sharma, founder of Abhinav Immigration Services, said that once a dependent turns 21, the fallout is immediate. 'In such cases, the immediate fallout is that the dependents also lose their status. There's no doubt about that,' Sharma said. He explained that: Dependents may apply for a student visa (F-1), Dependent spouses could apply for an EAD if the principal H-1B holder has an approved I-140, Moving from one visa status to another requires careful timing to avoid unlawful presence. 'The challenge often lies in moving from one status to another. Bridging that gap can be difficult, so one has to be very cautious about the dates—when one visa is expiring and another status is being considered,' Sharma said. Options after turning 21 For children who turn 21, Sharma pointed to limited options. 'One route is to file a new petition. Another possible route is applying under the Child Status Protection Act (CSPA), which can help them retain a valid immigration status after they turn 21. However, that's only a temporary solution,' Sharma said. He explained that beyond CSPA protection: Children must secure independent status such as an F-1 student visa, Or apply under employment-based categories like EB-5. 'If you know a child is ageing out in six months, then whatever process you're considering should start well in advance. If no steps are taken in time, their status could lapse, and they risk being placed in removal proceedings,' Sharma added. While students might be able to adjust their status under another visa category, options are few beyond the F-1 and employment-based visas. Future scrutiny expected under Trump administration Sharma warned that with Donald Trump's return to the White House, stricter rules are likely. 'With the Trump administration returning, stricter scrutiny is expected—both for new applications and extensions. This increased scrutiny could make it harder for applications that would've been processed smoothly in the past. Work authorisation under H-4, particularly, may face challenges. One must tread carefully until things settle and the new administration sets its immigration agenda, which may take another six months,' Sharma said.
