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The National
4 days ago
- Politics
- The National
Our columnists weigh in on shock SNP defeat in Hamilton
The result will be picked over for days, perhaps weeks to come. For now. we've asked Scotland's top commentators to give their immediate post-mortems... Robin McAlpine When you get a surprise result in a by-election it is often the result of something that commentators and analysts have missed, a factor or mood that escaped the chattering classes. I'm not sure that is what has happened in Hamilton. I think this result, though it surprised me, probably does more to confirm our current position than confound it. Put simply, voters feel they have no good options and are voting against things, not for them. There is a very low level of emotional attachment to political parties just now. Walking away is easy. That creates a high level of volatility. It doesn't take much to win or lose an election these days. READ MORE: SNP activists reveal HQ silenced Reform strategy warnings So why is the SNP the victim? From a few conversations I have had with people in Hamilton, a lot of what appears to have been on their minds is 'the state of the town'. Hamilton was once a prosperous, successful town, it doesn't always feel like that now, and the things people identify as failing are mostly the responsibility of Holyrood. Combined with the fact that Labour heavily promoted their candidate as 'not a politician' and appears to have had a better ground game, it seems to have edged them in front. What lessons can be taken from this? I've been worried for a while that all the SNP's bluster about having 'turned the corner' from its declining situation was difficult to support from the data. It remains stuck on 28% in the polls and my experience of the attitude of even those still voting SNP is hardly what you'd call enthusiastic. The SNP might wish to dwell on the fact that persuading political insiders and journalists that the 'ship is steady' and persuading the public that you're worth getting off the sofa and actually supporting are two very different tasks. Kenny MacAskill The Hamilton result is a defeat for the SNP but it's also a blow to the independence movement. Alba stood aside to 'max the Yes vote', it's for the Greens to answer why they stood polling more than the small Labour majority and costing victory. But the SNP fundamentally has to take responsibility for a campaign where they abandoned independence to pursue opposing Reform. In politics it's always better to say what you're for rather than against. Yet with independence at over 50% it was forsaken. What should have been the SNP's unique selling point was abandoned. READ MORE: Hamilton by-election results – see the full breakdown in charts and graphs In 1967 Winnie Ewing was resolute in her demand for independence with her quip 'stop the world Scotland wants to get on' resonating. Yet this by-election saw the SNP defeated by a very weak Labour candidate. The very sort of apparatchik that Winnie defeated back then and who Alex Salmond saw removed from their political hegemony over Scotland. John Swinney is now in danger of handing Scotland back to Labour on plate rather than delivering independence. Winnie excited voters with the prospects of Scotland gaining from her natural resources and Scotland's North Sea oil. Shamefully, that wealth has been stolen and our refinery shut. But now a renewable energy bounty is arriving. Scotland is energy rich, but Scots are fuel poor and businesses and jobs aren't following. It's why the independence movement needs to come together. Next year's Holyrood election must be a plebiscite election, and 'max the Yes vote' the strategy. Lesley Riddoch (Image: YouTube) This was a grim result for independence. The much-pilloried Labour candidate Davy Russell won – and he did so for two big reasons. First, Labour camped out in the constituency for months – but the SNP could have done the same. Second, and more importantly, Russell was a highly visible local and 'not a politician'. In a constituency and an era where trust has been lost in both Westminster and Scottish governments, folk will always prefer one of their own. And much as Russell failed to loup the bar as a conventional candidate, he scored big time as a born and bred man who works for local charities, enjoys bowling at the local club and is a regular at the local karaoke. Since there was no actual polling in the constituency this local effect was completely missed by everyone. This is a warning. 'Non politicians' thrive when politics becomes technocratic, impersonal and unengaging. That includes the 'non-politicians' of Reform, whose leader successfully presents as a regular guy but owns four houses and co-owns his party. He is a disruptor, as the SNP were before becoming custodians of a devolved government. READ MORE: John Curtice issues verdict on Hamilton by-election after 'surprise' result Sure, they must make governance work but they must also develop strong home-grown local candidates for elections and stop drawing a polite veil over problems they cannot fix without independence. A spark, hope, vision is needed – yet independence was apparently not mentioned in any of Katy Loudon's election leaflets. It was a tough night to be doing BBC commentary in Glasgow, but more depressing was breakfast in a nearby hotel where the waiter, about to graduate in naval engineering, said he's off to London because there are no engineering jobs in Scotland. All his friends are doing the same. T'was ever thus. But it could and must be otherwise. It's why we need independence. Tommy Sheppard When it's this close you could plausibly argue that any number of things might have altered the result. There are always a myriad of push and pull factors that play on an electorate's mind and determine how it will settle. More important is the overall narrative of the election; the stories parties tell and which are believed. In this by-election this electorate chose not to believe the SNP's story. We need to ask why – and we need to get a better one. The central theme of the SNP's campaign was to argue the contest was a two-horse race, between them and Reform UK. Only the SNP could beat the buoyant new far-right insurgents. READ MORE: Angus Robertson tears into BBC coverage of Hamilton by-election count on live TV From the off, this is an unusual play to make in defence. The two-horse race line is usually deployed by a challenger to mobilise opposition to an incumbent. Doing it in this context results in a number of unfortunate and unintended consequences. First it necessarily portrays the SNP as the status quo. With an electorate boasting many reasons not to be cheerful that is always going to be a tricky ask. Second, in defence the argument has the reverse effect on your opponent that it might in attack. The other party, in this case Reform, are presented as the second most important party. The message to anyone flirting with Reform is that they are a serious contender, best placed to upset the SNP. We make their argument for them. But the two-horse argument only works if it is plausible and resonates in the real world. Despite tens of thousands of leaflets and thousands of knocked doors repeating the line, most people simply didn't believe it.
Time Out
28-05-2025
- Entertainment
- Time Out
Surry Hills' Hollywood Quarter is turning it on for Vivid 2025
Vivid is doing things differently this year. For Vivid Sydney 2025, it's not all watching the Opera House turn technicolour and wandering around The Rocks looking at the lights (though that's still very much worth doing). This year, sparkly season is going beyond the big, CBD landmarks and lighting up one of Sydney's trendiest inner city neighbourhoods: the Hollywood Quarter. First up, let there be light. From now until the closing night of Vivid (Saturday, June 14), the streets of HQ will glow with neon-toned nods to the world of cinema. Wander the neighbourhood and trace luminous movie soundtrack lyrics and famous quotes; this one's a Vivid light display for cinephiles. Then, there's the event program – which is taking over venues across the neighbourhood with ongoing and one-off events. Every Saturday of Vivid, the Hollywood Hotel will be hosting live music and DJs in its moody 'Vivid After Dark Lounge', with snacks catered by nearby Butter served until 11pm. Around the corner, Golden Age is transforming into a dreamlike realm for the duration of the festival, with live music, performance art and kooky, obscure installations inspired by the beloved late director David Lynch. The Vivid line-up at Golden Age includes a performance by Marcus Whale and Nini Voss covering Lynch originals, and they'll be screening dream-inspired movies in the next door cinema throughout sparkly season. The Soda Factory is also stepping up its entertainment game for the duration of Vivid, hosting live bands every Wednesday during Vivid. The jewel in HQ's Vivid crown will be taking place on Saturday, May 31, when Foster Street will close to vehicles for a gorgeous, glittering street party. From 5pm until 11pm, Sydney's coolest street will become a pedestrianised alfresco dining destination, with food from Nomad, Gildas, Nel, Kiln, Poly and Brooklyn Boy Bagels, drinks by The Rover, Golden Age Bar, Butter, Alberto's Lounge and Tio's and live music performers keeping people entertained. Up on the roof of Paramount House, you'll find a one-off gig poster-making workshop soundtracked by an acoustic set by The Lazy Eyes (taking place from 4.30pm until 6.30pm). On Saturday, June 14, Foy Lane (the alleyway behind Ace Hotel that plays host to one of the most beloved parties of Mardi Gras) will close out HQ's Vivid fun with a high-energy laneway party – complete with live music, digital art, snacks by Butter and drinks under the stars. Stay in the loop: sign up for our free Time Out Sydney newsletter for more news, travel inspo and activity ideas, straight to your inbox.
San Francisco Chronicle
27-05-2025
- Business
- San Francisco Chronicle
Is your money in good hands with an AI financial adviser?
The global market turbulence of the past few months sparked by President Donald Trump's shifting tariff policies has provoked anxiety for many people worried about their 401(k)s and other savings but perhaps lacking the expertise to understand their options to keep their money safe and their investments growing. Financial advisers are the traditional source of that expertise, but it carries a price tag that some personal investors might not feel they can afford. As artificial intelligence becomes smarter and more human-like, could a machine potentially take on the role of a financial adviser — at little or no cost? 'One of the biggest challenges that we face in finance is financial advice,' said Andrew Lo, professor of finance at the MIT Sloan School of Management. 'How do we deal with various different investors' needs to manage their portfolio to achieve certain objectives?' I spoke to AI and financial experts, as well as founders of some Bay Area-based companies that say their AI-powered products can offer users personalized financial advice. What I found is that AI is getting close to being able to do the job of a financial adviser, but the technology is not quite there yet. Welcome to Hella Expensive, a column designed to help readers navigate the financial aspects of living in the Bay Area. I'll be keeping an eye on current issues, trends and what's going on with the overall economic outlook — but I also want to hear from you. Send your financial questions and concerns to me through the survey below, or email me at Financial advisers are hired to help their clients plan their financial futures and manage their money. The decision to hire a financial adviser is a very personal one. It can be motivated by concerns about your money and investments during periods of market volatility or economic uncertainty. It can often come during a major life event, such as buying a home, saving up for your children's college tuition or planning for retirement. You may be someone looking to increase their financial literacy, or you're a high-net-worth individual. The fees for a financial adviser can vary. Some are paid only from the services they provide, while others receive client fees as well as commissions from the products they sell. According to a report from advisery HQ, the average financial adviser fee was 1.02% of a client's assets in 2023. So if you have $300,000 in an account, you can expect to pay about $3,060 in fees. How much can an AI chatbot tell me? AI chatbots such as ChatGPT, Gemini and Microsoft Copilot continue to undergo refinements to make them more accurate and sophisticated. So how far have they gotten in the realm of dispensing financial advice? Lo is also director of the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering, and has been researching this very question with a team of five students, using large language models (LLMs) or AI programs that can understand and generate human language. Their research has identified three primary challenges for LLMs to act as financial advisers. The easiest to overcome is ensuring that LLMs have the body of knowledge required for the task. They are already about 90% of the way there, Lo said. The second hurdle, according to Lo, is 'can large language models take information from a human and use that information to customize financial advice so that it is suitable for them?' He said providing such individually appropriate advice is part of an adviser's responsibility, and if they don't do that, they could have their license revoked or perhaps even be prosecuted criminally. LLMs can currently take a person's circumstances such as their income, savings and financial goals, and come up with a relatively solid financial plan, according to Lo. He said his team has been training LLMs on a database of individual financial circumstances, and it's in the testing phase now. But there is more to refine, and Lo said the researchers are about 80% done. 'The third and I think the most challenging problem is the issue of ethics and morality when it comes to providing advice to a human client,' Lo said. In the financial realm, this is known as fiduciary duty. A financial adviser is required by law to put the interest of their clients ahead of their own, Lo said. While they can certainly charge them a fee for their services, it 'has to be secondary to the client's best interest.' 'You and I know what that means, but how do you explain that to a machine?' Lo said. 'So we have been working on the whole notion of ethical behavior, both human and ultimately AI, and try to understand what kind of guardrails we need, what kind of intelligence are we talking about in terms of the artificial.' He said his team is in the very early stages of solving this issue, working with 'large amounts of historical information regarding various kinds of ethical dilemmas that have plagued financial advisers.' With that information, Lo believes his team can create an ethics and fiduciary model to ensure the advice given is in the best interest of the client. Brian Stormont, managing partner and financial adviser for Insight Wealth Strategies in San Ramon, said AI could be 'very beneficial' to a do-it-yourself type person. As a user of AI, he said, sometimes answers to financial issues are 'quite precise.' But overall he's found 'interactions to be all over the map in terms of satisfaction.' 'For many people, the financial landscape is still so multi-faceted,' he wrote in an email. 'People will need someone who can translate their personal situation and objectives into actionable task items and set them on the right path.' Personalizing financial advice The financial world has been embracing AI in a number of ways, with many large institutions now offering customers access to AI assistants and robo-advisers. Some Bay Area-based startups market themselves as the alternative to hiring a pricey financial adviser. Users connect their brokerage and bank accounts to the platform, and can receive some basic services. If they upgrade to a membership fee, they can get customized financial and investment recommendations. Mezzi, a financial management app, is described by CEO and co-founder Manish Jain as 'an AI wealth copilot.' It currently offers only a paid annual membership to build wealth, but Jain said a free plan is in the works. 'Mezzi provides proactive, real-time insights and 24/7 answers for portfolio management, diversification, risk reduction, and tax savings on demand to build and manage wealth,' Jain wrote in an email. 'One of our core offerings is like a private ChatGPT for your portfolio that leverages your background and goals to provide you with personalized insights.' Jain said Mezzi 'leverages AI' to educate and inform users, and offer ideas and suggestions, 'but the user remains in control and makes all final decisions about their investments. He said using AI alone, such as through a chatbot, could be susceptible to hallucinations, and doesn't provide live financial markets data. 'We've done a lot of heavy lifting to leverage brokerage and market data to deliver insights in a deterministic and accurate way, so we don't have to rely on an LLM like ChatGPT to deliver what could be a potentially inaccurate answer,' he said. Mezzi uses a hybrid approach of blending LLMs with conventional data and information systems to increase accuracy, he said. According to Jain, Mezzi offers information and suggestions with 'complete transparency' and doesn't recommend any financial products for a commission, therefore avoiding conflicts of interest. 'Mezzi is best for people who want to be the final decision maker, but looking to be better informed while saving time and money,' he said. In 2021 Alexander Harmsen sold his previous company, Iris Automation. He bought a home in the Bay Area and started his family, and figured it was time to find a financial adviser. But he felt like they were salespeople with too many clients, trying to sell him expensive funds. 'I wanted an adviser in the true sense of the word adviser,' he said, who could help him with everything from estate planning to managing his net worth. So he built his own platform instead called PortfolioPilot, which uses a complex hybrid AI approach. It incorporates many different models including LLMs as well as a dynamic factor model, which the 'Fed uses to model our interest rates, credit conditions, GDP and inflation,' according to Harmsen. 'As people interact with the product, it becomes more and more personalized,' he said. Users answer 10 onboarding questions about their goals and preferences, then connect their investment accounts. Harmsen said they can get a financial report card for free, and if they want more personalized financial advice, they can sign up for a membership. PortfolioPilot services include investment recommendations, tax impacts, access to an AI assistant and estate planning. He said the advice can range from the medium term of what to do over the next year, to the very long term and how to get yourself set up for retirement. But for these financial service platforms to be useful, users need to have accumulated some wealth. Jain said Mezzi's average user tends to be someone who has 'started to accumulate some complexity' with multiple accounts and growing wealth — generally Millennials and Gen-Xers with $100,000 to $5 million in net worth. And while the platforms can be helpful for financial literacy and recommendations, professional help is likely still needed for more complex matters. Jain said Mezzi's insights are 'restricted to personal wealth management of liquid assets,' and doesn't handle tax filing, estate planning or business tax analysis. 'We suggest users consult a tax expert or financial planner if they want insights beyond Mezzi's current scope or if they want someone else to make the decisions and take action,' he said, such as investing or moving money. Harmsen said while their offerings are 'pretty robust,' they are also 'very clear about the limitations and by no means promise certain returns,' he said, adding that the company has a compliance program to ensure it adheres to applicable laws, regulations and ethical standards. He wants to eventually build an entire ecosystem that includes partner CPAs, lawyers and other professionals to make wealth building more seamless for users. What's on the horizon Jain at Mezzi said some processes take a lot of engineering resources, which can be time-consuming and costly. 'Right now we can't rely on an AI agent to reliably recall and process information to produce high-level insights on its own with high accuracy,' he said. 'We spend a significant amount of time building processing and insights manually using conventional data science.' His hope is that systems will eventually be developed that eliminate the need for manual coding of processing and insight generation. Lo said after his team solves the three main challenges, their ultimate goal is to develop a financial adviser using an LLM and offer it for free to the public. It would benefit individuals who need it the most, particularly low-income people who can't afford to pay for financial advice. 'It won't do everything,' he said. 'Certainly it won't dispense the kind of advice that a high-net worth individual would need and like access to, but our view is that they're already being well served by financial institutions, so we don't need to solve that problem.' The LLMs would be trained similarly to how a junior financial adviser would be, Lo explained. A big obstacle is avoiding AI hallucinations. And once the software is complete, another major challenge would be getting regulators to sign off on it. The whole process could take three to five years. In the meantime, Lo's team plans to post a list of ideal prompts to use when asking AI chatbots for financial advice, which he hopes to do by year-end. Lo encourages people to spend time with an AI chatbot and 'get to know it.' Use different ones, as they each have their own 'quirks, strengths and weaknesses.' Ask it a lot of questions, starting with topics you are most familiar with such as your profession, to get a sense of how much the LLM actually knows. Then start asking financial questions to gauge accuracy and temperament.
Forbes
23-05-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Why Buy Microsoft Stock?
Microsoft store in Manhattan, New York City, United States of America on July 16th, 2024. (Photo by ... More Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images) Why would you want to pay 50x cash flow for Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock, when you can buy Nvidia at about the same price? Nvidia's revenues are growing close to 100%, Microsoft's at 15%. Yes, not 50%, but 15%. What's worse - Nvidia's cash flow margins are about 47%, almost 1.7x Microsoft's margins. In other words, more of that top line growth that Nvidia gets - makes its way to free cash flow! Cash that can be reinvested or distributed to investors as return. Good thing, who can argue? But Nvidia comes with large risk. Our High Quality (HQ) portfolio diversifies away stock-specific risks while giving exposure to upside, and has outperformed the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 - and has clocked > 91% returns since inception. Well, you could argue - Microsoft is a known, stable game. For more than 40 years, this thing has been running like a machine. Nvidia's phenomenal growth is recent - it might fizzle. AI might fizzle. Large AI models might fizzle - or worse, deemed unnecessary. Deepseek showed small models work just as well, right? They didn't even use Nvidia's latest chips. However, what are the odds that Nvidia's chips will cease to be the hottest date in town? There lies the guesswork. Nvidia revenues grew more than 80% annually, on average, in the last 3 years - and last year grew more than 100%. Could this drop to 60% or 40% growth? It has to - soon! Nvidia's biggest customers are the likes of Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon. These companies, each of them, spent more than tens of billions last year on Nvidia chips. Can Microsoft, Google, and others continue to spend 100% MORE on Nvidia chips next year? And the year after? Can they do it while their own revenue grows only 15% annually? The answer is absolutely not. The Nvidia 80-100% growth music has to stop at some point. When this high pitched growth music stops, Nvidia's valuation will drop. A lot. But then, it might continue at a slower pace, at 20-30%, not bad, but not ridiculously high either. That's why you build a portfolio. A resilient one. Balance risk-reward. We did it in spades with the Trefis High Quality (HQ) portfolio. Balancing risk-reward is how HQ outperformed the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and Russell 2000. HQ outperformed all of them, and clocked >91% returns since inception. That's why you buy a little bit of Microsoft, or Google, META, and Amazon. Comparison as a tool: The purpose of comparing Microsoft with Nvidia is all about understanding the risk-reward tradeoff of an investment of interest, in this case Microsoft. In practice, investment decisions are about understanding relative attractiveness. Buy Microsoft stock or keep your money as interest earning cash? Or buy an ETF on the S&P 500? Is expected return on Microsoft stock more than that on cash - by how much? What's the downside risk you bear to earn that extra return on Microsoft? Drawing contrast with a specific 'anchor' asset, in this case Nvidia and Microsoft, serves as a powerful tool to assess the risk-reward tradeoff. Note: Always use an appropriate comparison for a ticker. Microsoft example was about 'growth' and reasonably high valuation. A comparison with Nvidia provides interesting perspective as the stock offers much more at a similar valuation (FCF based) - but also carries with it, a huge downside risk. It is exactly this downside risk, versus relative upside tradeoffs we made - at scale, in constructing the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio. With a selection of 30 stocks, it has demonstrated a history of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the past 4-year span. What accounts for this? As a collective, HQ Portfolio stocks achieved superior returns with reduced risk compared to the standard index, with a smoother performance evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump administration officials denounce killings of Israeli Embassy staffers in DC
Trump administration officials were quick to denounce Wednesday evening's shooting in Washington, D.C., which left two Israeli Embassy staffers dead outside of a museum. The victims, Sarah Lynn Milgrim and Yaron Lischinsky, were fatally shot outside of the Capital Jewish Museum by a male suspect who shouted 'free Palestine' before opening fire. President Trump condemned the killings in a post on his Truth Social platform early Thursday. 'These horrible D.C. killings, based obviously on antisemitism, must end, NOW! Hatred and Radicalism have no place in the USA,' he wrote. 'Condolences to the families of the victims.' Trump's comment was later echoed by several Cabinet members and Jewish organizations across the country. 'My heart breaks for the two Jews who were murdered last night at the Capital Jewish Museum. Antisemitic violence has no place in the United States,' Vice President Vance said in a post on Truth Social. Reporting indicates Lischinsky was a Christian. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the incident 'a brazen act of cowardly, antisemitic violence.' 'Make no mistake: we will track down those responsible and bring them to justice,' Rubio said in a post on social platform X. Attorney General Pam Bondi said she was on the scene hours after the crime took place and is praying for the family of victims. 'I am on the scene of the horrible shooting outside the Washington, DC Capital Jewish Museum with @USAttyPirro. Praying for the victims of this violence as we work to learn more,' Bondi wrote on X. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said he spoke with Bondi, also weighed in on the shooting, adding that he was 'outraged' by the deaths. 'We are witness to the terrible cost of the antisemitism and wild incitement against the State of Israel,' Netanyahu said in a statement. 'Blood libels against Israel have a cost in blood and must be fought to the utmost.' Milgrim and Lischinsky — a couple on the verge of engagement, according to police — were gunned down after the American Jewish Committee's (AJC) annual Young Diplomats Reception. Lischinsky was preparing to return to Israel to spend the Jewish holiday of Shavuot with his family prior to being killed. 'Sarah and Yaron were stolen from us,' AJC CEO Ted Deutch said in a Thursday statement. 'Moments before they were murdered, they were smiling, laughing, and enjoying an event with colleagues and friends,' Deutch continued. 'We are in shock and heartbroken as we attempt to process this immense tragedy.' The young couple had met multiple political officials from both Israel and the United States who have mourned their deaths. 'I just met Sarah two weeks ago in my office at EPA HQ. She struck me as a young woman filled with life and positivity. Heartbroken to learn she was one of two tragically murdered last night by a Jew-hating radical screaming 'Free Palestine'' Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin said in a post on X. 'May Sarah and Yaron rest in peace,' he added. The Israeli military (IDF) also condemned the incident. 'The IDF sends our deepest condolences to the families of the victims of the attack on the Israeli embassy in Washington,' it wrote online. 'Like ambassador @yechielleiter said: 'We are a resilient people, the people of Israel are resilient people, and the people of the United States of America are resilient people,'' its statement continued. 'Together we won't be afraid, together we'll stand, and we're going to overcome moral depravity of people who think they're going to achieve political gains through murder,' the military added. Updated at 11:04 a.m. EDT Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
