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The Hill
5 days ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Iran's nuclear phoenix is rising
Like a mythical Phoenix rising from its own ashes, a very real and deadly nuclear weapons program is in danger of resurrecting itself in Iran. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his hardliners remain undeterred after Israel and the U.S. targeted key nuclear facilities in Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz in June. Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, admitted this when he told Bret Baier on Fox News that Tehran 'cannot give up our enrichment.' Araghchi also admitted that Iran's facilities 'have been damaged, seriously damaged, the extent of which is now under evaluation.' President Trump seized on Araghchi's talking point. He quickly fired off a Truth Social post declaring, 'Fake News CNN should immediately fire their phony 'reporter' and apologize to me and the great pilots who 'OBLITERATED' Iran's nuclear sites.' 'Obliterated' is a strong word, especially since Iran's nuclear weapons program is significantly larger than just three enrichment sites — and Trump's own intelligence community professes uncertainty about how much of Iran's program remains. Likewise, any admission from Araghchi should be treated with skepticism. Although it could be truthful, it also could be intentional deception. After all, Araghchi is the man who repeatedly claimed that Iran's nuclear program was peaceful. Earlier in May, while speaking in Qatar, Araghchi claimed that Tehran was not seeking nukes or other weapons of mass destruction. That briefs well, until you consider that at a maximum, no more than 5 percent highly enriched uranium is needed for nuclear fuel power rods, hospital experiments and radiation equipment. Prior to the Israeli and U.S. strikes, Iran had enriched at least 880 pounds of highly enriched uranium to 60 percent according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Relatively speaking, even if it would take some time for Iran to enrich that stockpile to weapons-grade highly enriched uranium (90 percent ) — the amount needed for a modern nuclear missile strike — it could use the 60 percent stockpile it already has to construct Hiroshima-like nuclear bombs. Iran Watch estimates that Khamenei has enough to build 'one or more' of the gun-type bomb known as 'Little Boy,' the type of used in Hiroshima. It would only take 132 pounds of uranium enriched to 80 percent. Simply put, Iran likely still has several nuclear options. It is just a question of which route Khamenei opts to take first — the Little Boy route, or the more complex implosion route that would require enriching uranium to 90 percent? Or is it enough for Iran simply to declare itself a nuclear power? The answer likely comes down to two key areas. How much fissile material does Iran still have after the airstrikes, and what is Tehran's remaining centrifuge capacity to continue enriching uranium? Notably, while much of the media's attention has been on Khamenei's stores of 60 percent highly enriched uranium, we cannot overlook Iran's 20 percent and 5 percent stockpiles. Prior to the June strikes, Tehran had 606 pounds of the former and 12,150 pounds of the latter. Iran Watch ominously warns that '20 percent enriched uranium is approximately 90% of the way to weapon-grade and Iran's stockpile would be sufficient to fuel at least two implosion weapons.' Plus, if further enriched, eventually Khamenei's 5% stockpile could be used to 'fuel at least 10 implosion weapons.' Determining exactly where these stockpiles are located in Iran is job one for U.S. and Israeli intelligence. Are they buried deep inside the rubble of Isfahan, Fordo and Natanz? Or were they moved prior to the strikes? Vice President JD Vance argued in late June that their location is a moot point —that the only question is whether 'Iran enriched the uranium to weapons-grade level, and can they convert that fuel into a nuclear weapon?' But this is not the case. Yes, Iran's remaining centrifuge capacity is also key, but so too is understanding how much fissile material remains and how long it will take Teheran to retrieve it and begin enriching anew. Uranium highly enriched to 60 percent is in a gaseous state and can be stored in cylinders approximately the same size of a scuba tank. Moving or hiding some of them could have been as easy as putting them in the back of a small car or SUV. Iran is not going to give up its nuclear weapons program. Ever since the strikes, it has remained defiant toward Washington. Therefore, the Trump administration must, at a minimum, assume some or all of Iran's enriched stockpiles are either retrievable from the rubble or accessible in an unknown location. Prior to the strikes, Iran Watch reported that Fordow mountain fortress had 2,700 operating gas centrifuges used to enrich uranium. Natanz had 17,000 deep underground and an above-ground facility containing 1,700 gas centrifuges. The latter above ground facility at Natanz, according to International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi, was destroyed by Israel on June 13. The jury is still out, however, as to how many of Iran's underground gas centrifuges remain. Much of Iran's nuclear weapons program was built covertly. It is highly likely that Iran has multiple undeclared centrifuge sites. If so, Iran producing one or two Little Boy-type nukes could be achieved at a minimum — and if needed, Tehran certainly has the technological know-how to build new centrifuges. The nuclear ashes of this phoenix are very real. Mythology is not required in order for Iran to resurrect its nuclear weapons program. Russian nuclear scientists pulled from the facilities prior to the airstrikes will likely return to enable Iran. Other aspects of Iran's nuclear program were targeted as well by Israel. Certainly, Tehran's nuclear ambitions have been set back. For instance, at Isfahan, Iran's facility that converts enriched uranium gas — a key weaponization component — to metal was partially destroyed by Israel. Nonetheless, it can be easily rebuilt. As Iran Watch notes, 'only dual-use industrial equipment' is needed to rebuild this part of Iran's nuclear phoenix. Other aspects of Iran's nuclear program were targeted as well by Israel. Israel eliminated at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists. Additional Israeli strikes hit the Kermanshah ballistic missile facility, the Khondab nuclear reactor (which could be used to produce plutonium), and critical supporting military bases and research facilities all over Iran. Yet the head of this Phoenix remains Khamenei. Absent regime change, the Islamic Republic of Iran will aggressively continue to pursue nuclear weapons. Trump did the right thing in striking Iran. Now he must help Israel finish the job and put an end to the Khamenei regime. As we argued previously, Washington cannot negotiate with evil. It must be defeated.
Saudi Gazette
04-03-2025
- General
- Saudi Gazette
Gazans face tough choices as their future is debated on the global stage
JERUSALEM — The level of destruction in Jabalia when viewed from the air is truly astonishing. A Hiroshima-like wasteland stretches as far as the eye can see. The mangled carcasses of buildings dot the churned-up landscape, some leaning at crazy angles. Great undulating waves of rubble make it all but impossible to make out the geography of this once bustling, tightly packed refugee camp. And yet, as a drone camera flies over the wreckage, it picks out splashes of blue and white where small tent camps have been set up in patches of open ground. And figures, clambering over broken buildings, moving along streets of dirt, where food markets are springing up under tin roofs and canvas awnings. Children using a collapsed roof as a slide. After more than six weeks of Gaza's fragile ceasefire, Jabalia is slowly coming back to the neighborhood of al-Qasasib, Nabil has returned to a four-story house that's somehow still standing, even if it lacks windows, doors and -- in some places -- and his relatives have made crude balconies out of wooden pallets and strung-up tarpaulin to keep out the elements."Look at the destruction," he says as he surveys Jabalia's ocean of ruins from a gaping upper floor."They want us to leave without rebuilding it? How can we leave. The least we can do is rebuild it for our children."To cook a meal, Nabil lights a fire on the bare staircase, stoking it carefully with pieces of torn-up another floor, Laila Ahmed Okasha washes up in a sink where the tap ran dry months ago."There's no water, electricity or sewage," she says. "If we need water, we have to go to a far place to fill up buckets."She says she cried when she came back to the house and found it blames Israel and Hamas for destroying the world she once knew."Both of them are responsible," she says. "We had a decent, comfortable life."Soon after the war began in October 2023, Israel told Palestinians in the northern part of the Gaza Strip – including Jabalia – to move south for their own of thousands of people heeded the warning, but many stayed, determined to ride out the and her husband Marwan clung on until October last year, when the Israeli military reinvaded Jabalia, saying Hamas had reconstituted fighting units inside the camp's narrow two months of sheltering in nearby Shati camp, Leila and Marwan returned to find Jabalia almost unrecognizable."When we came back and saw how it was destroyed, I didn't want to stay here anymore," Marwan says."I had a wonderful life, but now it's a hell. If I have the chance to leave, I'll go. I won't stay one more minute."Stay or go? The future of Gaza's civilian population is now the subject of international February, Donald Trump suggested that the US should take over Gaza and that nearly two million Palestinian residents should leave, possibly for with international outrage and fierce opposition from Arab leaders, Trump has subsequently appeared to back away from the plan, saying he recommended it but would not force it on the meantime, Egypt has led Arab efforts to come up with a viable alternative, to be presented at an emergency Arab summit in Cairo on it says the Palestinian population should remain inside Gaza while the area is Trump's intervention has brought out Gaza's famously stubborn side."If Trump wants to make us leave, I'll stay in Gaza," Laila says. "I want to travel on my own free will. I won't leave because of him."Across the way sits a nine-story yellow block of flats so spectacularly damaged it's hard to believe it hasn't upper floors have caved in entirely, threatening the rest. In time, it will surely have to be demolished, but for now it's home to yet more families. There are sheets in the windows and washing hanging to dry in the late winter incongruously of all, outside a makeshift plastic doorway on a corner of the ground floor, next to piles of rubble and rubbish, stands a headless mannequin, wearing a wedding Sanaa Abu Ishbak's dress 45-year-old seamstress, mother of 11, set up the business two years before the war but had to abandon it when she fled south in November came back as soon as the ceasefire was announced. With her husband and daughters, she's been busy clearing debris from the shop, arranging dresses on hangers and getting ready for business."I love Jabalia camp," she says, "and I won't leave it till I die."Sanaa and Laila seem equally determined to stay put if they can. But both women speak differently when they talk of the young."She doesn't even know how to write her own name," Laila says of her granddaughter."There's no education in Gaza."The little girl's mother was killed during the war. Laila says she still talks to her at night."She was the soul of my soul and she left her daughter in my hands. If I have the chance to travel, I will do so for the sake of my granddaughter." — BBC
BBC News
04-03-2025
- General
- BBC News
Gazans face tough choices as their future is debated on global stage
Jabalia, viewed from the air, is breathtaking.A Hiroshima-like wasteland stretches as far as the eye can see. The mangled carcasses of buildings dot the churned-up landscape, some leaning at crazy undulating waves of rubble make it all but impossible to make out the geography of this once bustling, tightly packed refugee yet, as a drone camera flies over the wreckage, it picks out splashes of blue and white where small tent camps have been set up in patches of open figures, clambering over broken buildings, moving along streets of dirt, where food markets are springing up under tin roofs and canvas awnings. Children using a collapsed roof as a more than six weeks of Gaza's fragile ceasefire, Jabalia is slowly coming back to life. In the neighbourhood of al-Qasasib, Nabil has returned to a four-storey house that's somehow still standing, even if it lacks windows, doors and - in some places - and his relatives have made crude balconies out of wooden pallets and strung-up tarpaulin to keep out the elements."Look at the destruction," he says as he surveys Jabalia's ocean of ruins from a gaping upper floor."They want us to leave without rebuilding it? How can we leave. The least we can do is rebuild it for our children."To cook a meal, Nabil lights a fire on the bare staircase, stoking it carefully with pieces of torn-up cardboard. On another floor, Laila Ahmed Okasha washes up in a sink where the tap ran dry months ago."There's no water, electricity or sewage," she says. "If we need water, we have to go to a far place to fill up buckets."She says she cried when she came back to the house and found it blames Israel and Hamas for destroying the world she once knew."Both of them are responsible," she says. "We had a decent, comfortable life."Soon after the war began in October 2023, Israel told Palestinians in the northern part of the Gaza Strip – including Jabalia – to move south for their own of thousands of people heeded the warning, but many stayed, determined to ride out the and her husband Marwan clung on until October last year, when the Israeli military reinvaded Jabalia, saying Hamas had reconstituted fighting units inside the camp's narrow two months of sheltering in nearby Shati camp, Leila and Marwan returned to find Jabalia almost unrecognisable. "When we came back and saw how it was destroyed, I didn't want to stay here anymore," Marwan says."I had a wonderful life, but now it's a hell. If I have the chance to leave, I'll go. I won't stay one more minute."Stay or go? The future of Gaza's civilian population is now the subject of international February, Donald Trump suggested that the US should take over Gaza and that nearly two million Palestinian residents should leave, possibly for with international outrage and fierce opposition from Arab leaders, Trump has subsequently appeared to back away from the plan, saying he recommended it but would not force it on the meantime, Egypt has led Arab efforts to come up with a viable alternative, to be presented at an emergency Arab summit in Cairo on Tuesday. Crucially, it says the Palestinian population should remain inside Gaza while the area is Trump's intervention has brought out Gaza's famously stubborn side."If Trump wants to make us leave, I'll stay in Gaza," Laila says. "I want to travel on my own free will. I won't leave because of him."Across the way sits a nine-storey yellow block of flats so spectacularly damaged it's hard to believe it hasn't upper floors have caved in entirely, threatening the rest. In time, it will surely have to be demolished, but for now it's home to yet more families. There are sheets in the windows and washing hanging to dry in the late winter incongruously of all, outside a makeshift plastic doorway on a corner of the ground floor, next to piles of rubble and rubbish, stands a headless mannequin, wearing a wedding gown. It's Sanaa Abu Ishbak's dress 45-year-old seamstress, mother of 11, set up the business two years before the war but had to abandon it when she fled south in November came back as soon as the ceasefire was announced. With her husband and daughters, she's been busy clearing debris from the shop, arranging dresses on hangers and getting ready for business."I love Jabalia camp," she says, "and I won't leave it till I die."Sanaa and Laila seem equally determined to stay put if they can. But both women speak differently when they talk of the young."She doesn't even know how to write her own name," Laila says of her granddaughter."There's no education in Gaza."The little girl's mother was killed during the war. Laila says she still talks to her at night."She was the soul of my soul and she left her daughter in my hands. If I have the chance to travel, I will do so for the sake of my granddaughter."
