Latest news with #HughLovatt
Egypt Independent
24-05-2025
- Politics
- Egypt Independent
Israel is facing unprecedented pressure from allies over its war on Gaza. Can they force it to change its ways?
CNN — After 19 months of pounding Gaza, Israel is now under growing pressure from unlikely quarters – some of its closest Western allies. Their patience has worn thin over Israel's decision to expand the war and, in the words of one Israeli minister, 'conquer' the territory – a move paired with plans to forcibly displace Gaza's entire population to the south and block all humanitarian aid for 11 weeks. The United Kingdom has paused trade talks and sanctioned extremist settlers in the West Bank. Canada and France have threatened sanctions. And the European Union – Israel's biggest trade partner – is reviewing its landmark Association Agreement with the country. Aid groups have warned that the situation in Gaza is becoming catastrophic, with the United Nations' humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher last week calling on the world to 'act decisively to prevent genocide.' Dozens of babies have died of malnutrition, according to Gaza's health ministry, and more than 53,000 people – or four percent of the entire population – have been killed since Israel launched its war following the October 7 terror attacks by Hamas and its allies. The fact that some of Israel's closest allies are now pushing back more vocally marks a major shift in attitudes toward the country. Hugh Lovatt, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN that just two years ago, it would have been unimaginable for Europe to even talk about the possibility of rethinking the Association Agreement. 'It was something that was widely seen as a taboo and unrealistic.' The agreement, which covers various forms of cooperation between the two parties, including the free movement of goods and scientific collaboration, has been in place for 25 years. 'The mere fact that this is being discussed seriously today is a sign of not just the increasing frustration, and I think also, let's be quite clear, anger, in some European capitals over Israeli actions in Gaza,' said Lovatt. Palestinian carry the bodies of their relatives including children who were killed in an Israeli army airstrike in Deir al-Balah, Gaza, on Wednesday. Abdel Kareem Hana/AP The punitive steps threatened by the EU and other allies are designed in part to sway the domestic debate inside Israel, where society is already extremely divided over the war. The government, propped up by hardliners from far-right parties, is determined to keep fighting in Gaza. But hundreds of thousands of Israelis demonstrate against the war each week, demanding the government agrees a ceasefire deal to release all the hostages still held in the strip. In an opinion poll published by Israel's Channel 12 broadcaster earlier this month, 61% of those surveyed favored ending the war for a deal that secures the hostage release, while only 25% supported the expanded military operation. That notwithstanding, Arie Reich, a legal scholar at Israel's Bar-Ilan University who specializes in international trade and EU law, said that external pressure on Netanyahu's government may not have the desired effect. 'When foreign countries try to interfere in internal matters of another country, especially things that are very dear to them, such as their national security, it usually works as a boomerang, and it actually causes the people to support the government even more,' he said. 'There is a wide consensus in Israel that we want to release our hostages, and that we do not want to go back to where we were on October 6. We don't want to have this threat of Hamas lingering over us,' Reich said. But he added that the moves by some of Israel's allies have made it clear that the 'window of using military force is starting to close.' 'And maybe, if it goes on longer than that, I think it's going to be very hard to maintain normal relations with many countries in the West,' he said. Israel has so far brushed aside the threats from its Western allies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accused them of 'offering a huge prize' to the October 7 attackers, while Israel's foreign ministry said that 'external pressure will not divert Israel from its path in the fight for its existence and security against enemies seeking its destruction.' This determination to continue may be due to Netanyahu believing that he can, for now at least, rely on the United States for support. And while the moves are diplomatically symbolic, critics expect little to change on the ground for Palestinians. Omar Barghouti, the co-founder of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, a global campaign aimed at pressuring Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian land, told CNN that unless Israel's allies totally stop support for Israel, their actions will yield few results. Short of a total arms embargo and a full suspension of economic relations, Israel is unlikely to change its ways, he said, arguing that Canada, France and the UK had been 'complicit' in Israel's actions in Gaza by providing it with 'military, intelligence, economic, and diplomatic support.' All three countries have longstanding agreements with Israel that include defense and security cooperation, although the detail of what exactly these contain is unclear. The UK and France have suspended some arms licenses to Israel over the situation in Gaza but have continued to export military equipment worth tens of millions of dollars to Israel. Canada has said that no export permits on military goods to Israel have been issued since January 8, 2024. Right-wing protesters try to block humanitarian aid from entering Gaza on May 21, 2025. John Wessels/AFP/Getty Images Israel's most powerful backer stands by it As Israel's most powerful ally, the US has the most sway over Netanyahu and his government. And while some in the Trump administration have criticized Israel over the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, there has been no indication the US would take any punitive actions against it. It isn't, however, a 'foregone conclusion that the US will continue to always unequivocally back Israel,' Lovatt said. 'While I don't see a rupture in relations, clearly, the arrival of the second Trump administration has created an interesting dynamic, given the influence of what I would call the 'America Firsters,' those in the MAGA world who want to put the US first in everything, and that has, to a certain extent, also applied to Israel,' he said. The US has moved out of step with Israel on number of issues in recent weeks. It has struck a ceasefire deal with Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels without first informing Israel; unilaterally negotiated with Hamas the release of US citizen Edan Alexander from Gaza; and, according to a Reuters report, has dropped its demand for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel as a condition for US investment and potential US arms deals. Addressing Israel's criticism over the deal with the Houthis, US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee told Israeli media that the US 'isn't required to get permission from Israel' to get an agreement that protects its ships. 'Netanyahu has positioned himself as a master of the US political game, and as someone who's best placed to manage and maintain tight Israel relations and to keep any US presidential administration on side. I think seeing some daylight between the Trump administration and the Israeli government clearly puts pressure on Netanyahu,' Lovatt said. US officials told CNN that US President Donald Trump was growing increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu, but stressed these frustrations do not amount to a change in posture in terms of US support for Israel, a country which the president continues to view as one of America's strongest allies. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talks to US President Donald Trump during a meeting in the Oval Office on April 7, are signs that some in Israel are worried about the consequences of its actions in Gaza. The leader of Israel's opposition left-wing Democrats party, retired Israeli general Yair Golan, warned on Tuesday that Israel is 'on its way to becoming a pariah state.' The impact of the pressure from the allies was on display on Sunday, when the Israeli military announced it would allow a 'basic amount of food' to enter Gaza as it launched its new offensive in the strip, which Israel says is intended to pressure Hamas to release the hostages held there. Netanyahu conceded on Monday that if 'a situation of famine' arose in Gaza, Israel 'simply won't receive international support.' In a statement posted to Telegram, he added that even US senators 'who have been staunch, unconditional supporters of Israel for decades' had told him that 'images of mass starvation' in Gaza would cost Israel their support. 'More of a threat' Even if the US won't use its leverage to force Israel to change its strategy in Gaza in a more significant way, it doesn't mean Europe can't put pressure on Israel on its own, experts say. The European Union is Israel's biggest trading partner, accounting for roughly a third of its trade in goods. A full suspension of the Association Agreement between the EU and Israel is unlikely, as it would require unanimous agreement of all 27 EU member states and several have already indicated they would not support it – including Hungary, a staunch supporter of Israel. Reich said that under the terms of the agreement, both the EU and Israel can terminate it for whatever reason, or even without giving a reason. 'The thing is that within the EU, that would require consensus … and that would be very, very hard, because there are many countries, many (EU) member states that will not go along with this,' he said. 'So I think it's more of a threat to put pressure (on Israel) and maybe they could manage some temporary suspension of some provisions, but to terminate it, I don't think it can happen,' he added. Smoke billows to the north as people flee towards Gaza City on May 19, 2025, amid Israeli evacuation orders and ongoing strikes. Bashar Taleb/AFP/Getty Images Public support for the country runs deep in many of the bloc's member states, which makes it difficult for some European governments to push for harsher sanctions against Israel. And, Lovatt said, many European countries are also aware of the fact that they may need Israel's help in the future. 'Especially in a situation where European countries are increasingly fearful of Russia's actions in Ukraine, but also the threat that Russia represents the rest of Europe, and (they) see Israel as an important source of weapons and technology,' he said. While terminating the association agreement would require unanimity, it would only take a majority of EU states to force through a partial suspension of the agreement. Even that could be painful for Israel because it could lead to higher tariffs on Israeli products or prevent Israel from taking part in coveted EU projects such as the Horizon Europe program, with more than $100 billion in funding available for research and innovation. The EU has in the past used its power to put pressure on countries over human rights abuses – often for issues Lovatt says are a lot less serious than the current situation in Gaza. 'The bottom line is that until now, the EU has treated Israel with a degree of exceptionalism by not taking anywhere near the sort of steps that it has taken in other situations of human rights abuses or territorial annexation,' Lovatt said.
The Guardian
08-03-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Dread haunts Gaza as airstrikes dent hopes of renewed ceasefire
Fears of a return to war in Gaza are intensifying this weekend, with faltering diplomatic efforts and almost daily airstrikes by Israeli forces in the devastated territory. There has been relative calm in Gaza since a ceasefire for prisoners deal between Hamas and Israel came into effect in January, pausing 15 months of conflict. However, the first phase of that agreement expired more than a week ago and a second phase has stalled, leaving Gaza plunged into a 'grey zone' of uncertainty. 'I feel happiness and relief that the fighting has been stopped for so long but right now, I am really anxious the war will start again. I follow the news continuously,' said Ranan al-Ashqar, who works in the education ministry in Gaza City. Many observers see only a narrow and unlikely pathway to any durable peace. 'We are in a grey zone. I am pessimistic about the potential going forward because the political calculations for the Israeli leadership do not favour a ceasefire that would involve an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza,' said Hugh Lovatt, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Some analysts fear a return to wider hostilities within days as Israel seeks to pressure Hamas into new concessions. Others suggest that a large-scale ground and air operation by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 'within weeks' is more likely if no new deal is reached. Last week, senior IDF officers told Israeli journalists that if Israeli forces launched a renewed offensive, it would be massive and very destructive. So far, the IDF has limited itself to a series of airstrikes across Gaza, though these appear to be increasingly frequent. On Saturday, Palestinian media reported casualties from an airstrike in southern Gaza near the town of Rafah. The IDF said an aircraft had struck a drone tracked entering Gaza from Israel as well as several suspects who collected it. A day earlier, the IDF said it had targeted a group suspected of placing a bomb near Israeli soldiers in the east of Gaza City. Palestinian aid officials said two people had died when a drone 'shot into their tent'. Aid officials and residents described similar incidents in the past week, and repeatedly hearing artillery fire, though the IDF has denied any extensive bombardment. In the first phase of the ceasefire, 25 living hostages held by Hamas in Gaza were released, along with the remains of eight others, in return for the release of about 1,900 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. Israel also withdrew its forces from many positions in Gaza and allowed more aid to come in. In Gaza, humanitarian workers differ about the effects of the pause in hostilities. One senior UN official said aid organisations had been able to rehabilitate some schools and clinics, set up bakeries and build up stocks of diesel fuel that is vital to supply power and water to the population of 2.3m. More than half a million people have returned to what is left of their homes in northern Gaza after spending months in the south. But prices have soared since Israel imposed a strict blockade on Gaza, cutting off supplies of fresh fruit, vegetables and meat, as well as further aid shipments of tents and other essentials. The price of gas on the hidden market is 10 times higher than from aid organisations charged with its distribution. Israel accused Hamas of seizing and profiting from aid. 'We could be facing a quick deterioration. Every day we are hearing these statements of a return to war. It's very difficult for people,' said Amjad Shawa, the director of the Palestinian NGOs Network in Gaza, speaking from Gaza City. 'It is a very sad city here. There is a lot of rubble and only a few bulldozers so we have opened a few streets and are trying to collect the remains of families under the ruins. We don't have the equipment we need but people are trying anyway.' The Israeli offensive has killed more than 48,000, mostly civilians, and destroyed swathes of Gaza. It was triggered by a Hamas surprise attack into Israel in October 2023 during which militants killed 1,200 people, also mostly civilians, and took 250 hostages. Fewer than half of the 59 hostages still held in Gaza are believed to be alive. While Israel has said it wants to extend the current phase of the ceasefire until the end of the holy festivals of Ramadan in late March and Passover in mid-April, Hamas has insisted on a swift transition to the second phase, and a permanent end to the war. Zev Faintuch, head of research at Global Guardian, a US-based risk consultancy, said Israel's war aims remained unchanged: to eliminate Hamas, return the hostages, return its displaced civilians to border areas affected by hostilities and minimise any future threat. But at the same time, Hamas has remained faithful to its original goals: to thwart progress towards the normalisation of ties between regional Arab states and Israel, isolate Israel diplomatically, widen divisions within Israeli society and retain control of Gaza. 'The four points on each side are pretty mutually exclusive,' Faintuch said. Diplomatic efforts to bridge the wide gap between Israel and Hamas have faltered, and there are now two competing plans for Gaza post-war. President Trump has said the US wants to oversee the displacement of Gaza's population so the territory could be rebuilt as 'the Middle East's Riviera' and US officials have dismissed a $53bn reconstruction proposal put forward last week by regional Arab states. Trump has also threatened Hamas with destruction on social media, though it was revealed last week that the US is engaged in unprecedented direct talks with the militant Islamist organisation. Lovatt said that recent US behaviour had been unhelpful, though the direct talks left an 'outside chance of agreement'. Almazah al-Masri, a nurse in northern Gaza, said she was worried and frustrated. 'Unfortunately, those involved in the discussions [about the ceasefire] do not care about what's happening in Gaza or the wellbeing of the civilians there,' she said. 'We do not want war at all. We have already been destroyed.'
The Guardian
11-02-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
Amid the ceasefire wrangling, how popular is Hamas in Gaza now?
Of the many factors that will determine the fate of the fragile ceasefire in Gaza, one of the most difficult to quantify and predict is the level of popular support for Hamas. On Monday, Hamas threatened to delay the release of further Israeli hostages, accusing Israel of breaches of the ceasefire deal. The uncertainty, just over halfway into the ceasefire's six-week first phase, complicates talks on the far more difficult second phase. It also jeopardises the pause in the devastating fighting and the increase in humanitarian aid for Gaza that the truce has made possible. Some analysts believe that Hamas initially made the concessions that helped bring about the ceasefire in part because it is sensitive to public opinion among Palestinians in Gaza, and recognised that to continue the conflict could cause it lasting damage. The same holds true during the fragile ceasefire, with Hamas keen to get credit for continued calm and and avoid blame in the event of a return to hostilities. That Hamas still has a powerful presence in Gaza despite massive damage done in Israel's offensive seems clear. Successive handovers of Israeli hostages have been carefully choreographed to showcase the militant group's military power, but Hamas has also deployed hundreds of officials from the municipal authorities it still controls to clear rubble, rehabilitate clinics, reopen schools and monitor markets. Aid workers in Gaza report that many of their pre-war contacts in the local administration are back in their posts. 'Hamas are pretty visible on the streets. Police are back on the beat and patrolling main junctions. Ministries are also reopening. It's like the war never happened in some ways,' said one senior UN official last week. But experts point out that the widespread presence of Hamas does not imply extensive support. 'The level of control is not a measure of popularity,' said Hugh Lovatt, a specialist in Palestinian politics at the European Council on Foreign Relations. 'We have polling data over the years and, though there are always caveats, there is still a consistent historical trend and that is that support for Hamas tends to hover around the mid-30s in percentage terms.' An unpublished survey conducted just before the ceasefire last month revealed an apparent decline in levels of support for Hamas, though it remains the most popular party in Gaza. The new survey, carried out by the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR), asked people in the territory if they supported 'very extreme actions' to protect and defend Palestine. 'This was on a continuous scale and roughly 25% were above the midpoint in support of extreme violence, so a minority,' said Scott Atran, the anthropologist who oversaw the research. When asked what would be a 'realistic and acceptable' ending to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, just under half of the population said some division of territory between Israel and Palestine, either along the pre-1967 borders or those suggested by the UN in 1947, while slightly more than half preferred a dissolution of Israel, with a single Palestinian state under Islamic law the most preferred solution of all. The least preferred was a single democratic state with equal rights for Arabs and Jews. The survey also showed that a significant proportion feel that rule by Islamic law – a key part of the ideology of Hamas – is important and that around half believe that a military solution is more likely than a diplomatic solution. For most in Gaza too, the Palestinian-Israel conflict is primarily religious rather than political, the survey suggested. Atran said: 'Hamas has only the support of a fifth of the population – a steep decline from a March 2024 PCPSR poll that showed majority support for Hamas in Gaza. In fact, the most frequent response on leadership was that no one truly represents the Palestinian people … So there is an evident leadership gap. 'Yet, the survey also indicates that Gazans – women as much as men, old and young – are willing to sacrifice for their land and sovereignty, including to fight and die, even at the cost of their own family safety and security … or the promise of a better life elsewhere.' A significant problem for researchers is that few in Gaza are prepared to openly criticise Hamas. The movement, which seized control of Gaza violently in 2007 after winning an election, has a long history of ruthless repression of dissidents. A poll by PCPSR released in September shows 39% in Gaza supported the attacks by Hamas into Israel in October 2023 which triggered the conflict, 32 percentage points lower than six months earlier. Hamas killed 1,200, mostly civilians, and abducted 250 in the attack, while the ensuing Israeli offensive cost the lives of more than 48,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, and devastated swaths of the territory. 'It is important to note that support for [the 2023 attack] does not necessarily mean support for Hamas and does not mean support for any killings or atrocities committed against civilians,' the PCPSR said, pointing out that up to 90% of respondents 'believe that Hamas … did not commit the atrocities depicted in videos taken on that day'. Instead, the pollsters said, support for the 2023 attack was motivated by how the attack had focused regional and global attention on Palestinian grievances. The poll also found that 36% in Gaza chose 'armed struggle' as the most effective way to end Israeli occupation and establish an independent Palestinian state, the lowest level since September 2022. Hamas was the preferred political party of 35% of respondents, down slightly. In the immediate aftermath of the ceasefire last month, some residents expressed pride that Hamas had survived the onslaught. 'Name me one country that could withstand Israel's war machine for 15 months,' said Salah Abu Rezik, a 58-year-old factory worker. He praised Hamas for helping to distribute aid to hungry people in Gaza during the conflict and trying to enforce a measure of security, describing Hamas as 'an idea' that could not be killed. But others voiced anger that Hamas's attack had brought destruction to Gaza. 'We had homes and hotels and restaurants. We had a life. Today we have nothing, so what kind of a victory is this? When the war stops, Hamas must not rule Gaza alone,' said Ameen, 30, a Gaza City civil engineer, who was living in Khan Younis. To prevent such views spreading further, Hamas will need to divert blame if the ceasefire collapses. One accusation made by Hamas on Monday was that Israel was deliberately hindering the entry of stipulated amounts of aid, such as 60,000 mobile houses and 200,000 tents, as well as heavy machinery to remove rubble, and fuel. Help with the humanitarian crisis and reconstruction is a priority for most in Gaza. Israel denies the charge. Lovatt said successive polls among Palestinians showed that 'there would always be space for a conservative, Islamist-leaning party' in Gaza and the occupied West Bank too. 'So even if you get rid of Hamas or it moderates further then there is potentially a segment of this Islamist support base which will look for a new political home,' he said. 'If you exile or kill the leadership, you are not addressing the challenge of this limited if substantial conservative Islamist base. If you want a credible political track you need to integrate that constituency.'
