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Economic Times
13-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Is the ghost of past subsidies, under-recoveries troubling IndianOil?
What does one expect from an oil marketing major when crude is on a downtrend and retail fuel prices are still high? A robust financial. On paper, that should have been the case with Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL). And yet, the numbers tell a different story. IOCL's net profit for FY25 collapsed to INR12,962 crore – a whopping 67% plunge from INR39,619 crore the year before. Even in the fourth quarter of FY25, when crude prices stabilised
Time of India
13-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Is the ghost of past subsidies, under-recoveries troubling IndianOil?
What does one expect from an oil marketing major when crude is on a downtrend and retail fuel prices are still high? A robust financial. On paper, that should have been the case with Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL). And yet, the numbers tell a different story. IOCL's net profit for FY25 collapsed to INR12,962 crore – a whopping 67% plunge from INR39,619 crore the year before. Even in the fourth quarter of FY25, when crude prices stabilised
Economic Times
10-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
HPCL and Mahanagar Gas stand out as top picks in a mixed oil & gas landscape; Motilal sees 17-28% upside
Marketing and CGD segments shine amid stable crude, but refining faces pressure from global capacity glut and weaker demand, say experts tracking the sector closely. India's oil and gas sector sees strength in marketing and city gas distribution due to stable margins and volume growth, while refining struggles with overcapacity and weak global demand. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads HPCL: Buy| Target Rs 455| LTP Rs 387| Upside 17% Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Mahanagar Gas Ltd: Buy| Target Rs 1760| LTP Rs 1368| Upside 28% (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of .) A combination of favorable crude oil dynamics, stable pricing policies, and volume growth underpins the positive outlook for marketing and CGD segments. However, a glut in global refining capacity and muted demand projections cast a shadow over refining remains the preferred sub-sector, driven by expectations of lower crude oil prices (FY26E: $65/bbl) and stable retail fuel prices. Despite a recent INR2/litre excise duty hike on petrol (MS) and diesel (HSD), marketing margins remain robust at ~INR12/litre, well above our long-term assumption of INR3.3/ resilience, coupled with a healthy 4% annual volume growth, supports earnings visibility for oil marketing companies (OMCs). Private players are capitalizing on strong margins, with their combined diesel and petrol sales surging 19.7% YoY in FY25, outpacing state-run competition intensifies, the sector's earnings face limited near-term risks, with potential upside if crude stays maintaining a neutral stance since November 2023, the CGD segment is now turning attractive. Falling raw material costs, driven by a looming global LNG surplus and lower gas pricing slopes, are expected to boost rising CNG adoption—supported by favorable economics vs. traditional fuels—is likely to sustain volume growth. With compressed natural gas (CNG) demand projected to grow at a steady clip, CGD companies stand to benefit from both margin expansion and volume tailwinds, marking a notable shift in sector refining segment faces challenges as global net capacity additions (0.4/0.95 mb/d in CY25/26) outpace demand, worsened by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) 300 kb/d downgrade to CY25 oil demand Brent prices are forecast at $65/bbl in FY26/27, downside risks persist, potentially denting profitability for upstream players like ONGC and Oil India . Though these firms trade at cheap valuations (0.8x–1.1x FY27E book value), weak realization trends justify sector's near-term fortunes hinge on crude oil trends and policy decisions. While marketing and CGD segments offer growth and margin resilience, refining and upstream activities face structural may prioritize OMCs and CGD players, leveraging their earnings stability, while adopting a selective approach in a volatile macro environment. Risks such as sharper-than-expected crude price declines or policy shifts warrant monitoring, but the current setup favors downstream and gas-focused Petroleum reported EBITDA 61% above estimates, driven by stronger-than-expected GRM of USD8.5/bbl. & marketing margin of INR4.5/lit, leading to PAT of INR33.5b, (+114% beat). We model a marketing margin of INR 3.3/litre for both MS and HSD in FY26/27, while the current marketing margins for MS and HSD are both above INR 10/ identify several key catalysts for the stock going forward: (1) the de-merger and potential listing of its lubricant business, (2) the commissioning of its bottom upgrade unit in 2QCY26, (3) the start of its Rajasthan refinery in FY26, and (4) LPG under-recovery Gas (MAHGL)'s adjusted EBITDA margin stood at INR 8.35/scm, below our estimate of INR 10/scm (reported EBITDA: INR 10/scm). During the quarter, MAHGL added 0.15 million domestic connections and 164 industrial/commercial customers, taking the total to 5, believe MAHGL's EBITDA margin has scope for further improvement, supported by two key factors: (1) the recent CNG price hike of INR 1.5/kg and D-PNG price hike of INR 1/scm, which will aid margins, & (2) declining raw material costs in fall in crude oil & Henry Hub index prices, along with INR appreciation on a QoQ basis, should help lower gas procurement costs going forward. We expect a 10% CAGR in volume over FY25-27.
Time of India
10-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
HPCL and Mahanagar Gas stand out as top picks in a mixed oil & gas landscape; Motilal sees 17-28% upside
A combination of favorable crude oil dynamics, stable pricing policies, and volume growth underpins the positive outlook for marketing and CGD segments. However, a glut in global refining capacity and muted demand projections cast a shadow over refining profitability. Marketing remains the preferred sub-sector, driven by expectations of lower crude oil prices (FY26E: $65/bbl) and stable retail fuel prices. Despite a recent INR2/litre excise duty hike on petrol (MS) and diesel (HSD), marketing margins remain robust at ~INR12/litre, well above our long-term assumption of INR3.3/litre. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like If You Eat Ginger Everyday for 1 Month This is What Happens Tips and Tricks Undo This resilience, coupled with a healthy 4% annual volume growth, supports earnings visibility for oil marketing companies (OMCs). Private players are capitalizing on strong margins, with their combined diesel and petrol sales surging 19.7% YoY in FY25, outpacing state-run firms. Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. While competition intensifies, the sector's earnings face limited near-term risks, with potential upside if crude stays subdued. After maintaining a neutral stance since November 2023, the CGD segment is now turning attractive. Falling raw material costs, driven by a looming global LNG surplus and lower gas pricing slopes, are expected to boost margins. Live Events Additionally, rising CNG adoption—supported by favorable economics vs. traditional fuels—is likely to sustain volume growth. With compressed natural gas (CNG) demand projected to grow at a steady clip, CGD companies stand to benefit from both margin expansion and volume tailwinds, marking a notable shift in sector sentiment. The refining segment faces challenges as global net capacity additions (0.4/0.95 mb/d in CY25/26) outpace demand, worsened by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) 300 kb/d downgrade to CY25 oil demand growth. While Brent prices are forecast at $65/bbl in FY26/27, downside risks persist, potentially denting profitability for upstream players like ONGC and Oil India . Though these firms trade at cheap valuations (0.8x–1.1x FY27E book value), weak realization trends justify caution. The sector's near-term fortunes hinge on crude oil trends and policy decisions. While marketing and CGD segments offer growth and margin resilience, refining and upstream activities face structural headwinds. Investors may prioritize OMCs and CGD players, leveraging their earnings stability, while adopting a selective approach in a volatile macro environment. Risks such as sharper-than-expected crude price declines or policy shifts warrant monitoring, but the current setup favors downstream and gas-focused segments. HPCL: Buy| Target Rs 455| LTP Rs 387| Upside 17% Hindustan Petroleum reported EBITDA 61% above estimates, driven by stronger-than-expected GRM of USD8.5/bbl. & marketing margin of INR4.5/lit, leading to PAT of INR33.5b, (+114% beat). We model a marketing margin of INR 3.3/litre for both MS and HSD in FY26/27, while the current marketing margins for MS and HSD are both above INR 10/litre. We identify several key catalysts for the stock going forward: (1) the de-merger and potential listing of its lubricant business, (2) the commissioning of its bottom upgrade unit in 2QCY26, (3) the start of its Rajasthan refinery in FY26, and (4) LPG under-recovery compensation. Mahanagar Gas Ltd: Buy| Target Rs 1760| LTP Rs 1368| Upside 28% Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL)'s adjusted EBITDA margin stood at INR 8.35/scm, below our estimate of INR 10/scm (reported EBITDA: INR 10/scm). During the quarter, MAHGL added 0.15 million domestic connections and 164 industrial/commercial customers, taking the total to 5,105. We believe MAHGL's EBITDA margin has scope for further improvement, supported by two key factors: (1) the recent CNG price hike of INR 1.5/kg and D-PNG price hike of INR 1/scm, which will aid margins, & (2) declining raw material costs in 1QFY26-to-date. The fall in crude oil & Henry Hub index prices, along with INR appreciation on a QoQ basis, should help lower gas procurement costs going forward. We expect a 10% CAGR in volume over FY25-27. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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Business Standard
01-05-2025
- Sport
- Business Standard
PBKS captain Shreyas Iyer fined Rs 12 lakh for slow over-rate against CSK
Punjab Kings captain Shreyas Iyer has been fined INR12 lakh for maintaining a slow-over rate during his team's win over Chennai Super Kings in the Indian Premier League here. Press Trust of India Chennai Punjab Kings captain Shreyas Iyer has been fined Rs 12 lakh for maintaining a slow-over rate during his team's win over Chennai Super Kings in the Indian Premier League here. "As this was his team's first offence of the season under Article 2.22 of the IPL Code of Conduct, which pertains to minimum over-rate offences, Shreyas Iyer was fined Rs 12 Lakh," an IPL media advisory stated on Thursday. Skipper Shreyas made an excellent fifty to support Yuzvendra Chahal's hat-trick as Punjab Kings defeated Chennai Super Kings by four wickets in their IPL match here on Wednesday. Shreyas (72, 41b, 5x4 4x6) and opener Prabhsimran Singh (54, 36b, 5x4, 3x6) were the main run-makers for PBKS as they overhauled the 191-run target in 19.4 overs. Earlier, Sam Curran's 88 helped hosts CSK reach a competitive 190 all out despite Chahal taking four wickets including a hat-trick (4/32). Curran (88, 47b, 9x4, 4x6) found good support from Dewald Brevis (32, 26b, 2x4, 1x6). For PBKS, leg-spinner Chahal was the was the most successful bowler as pacer Marco Jansen too chipped in with a couple of wickets. Brief score: Chennai Super Kings: 190 all out in 20 overs (Sam Curran 88, Dewald Brevis 32; Yuzvendra Chahal 4/32, Marco Jansen 2/30) lost to Punjab Kings: 194/6 in 19.4 overs (Shreyas Iyer 72, Prabhsimran Singh 54; Matheesha Pathirana 2/45, Khaleel Ahmed 2/28) by 4 wickets. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
