Latest news with #IpsosIssuesMonitor
RNZ News
4 days ago
- Business
- RNZ News
National pins re-election hopes on economy
Christopher Luxon is busy trying to convince people that National, not Labour, is the steady hand on the tiller amid choppy global waters. Photo: RNZ / Nick Monro Analysis: Saturday's National Party conference set out an early 2026 challenge to voters - stick with what we've got or risk it on who-knows-what. It's a line National used successfully in 2014 (remember Eminem-esque?), but that was a different National, and a different looking government. At roughly the same point in that electoral cycle, National was polling in the late forties. National in 2025 is struggling to get past the early thirties. Labour has emerged as the party New Zealanders think has the best handle on the cost of living, according to the Ipsos Issues Monitor. Of course, there is a long way to go yet. The prime minister knows this, and is counting on sunnier economic fortunes this time next year. But to borrow a well-worn Christopher Luxon phrase, the cost of living is the barnacle that won't get off the boat, and Luxon spent his speech - and much of the week leading up to it - trying to convince people that National, not Labour, is the steady hand on the tiller amid choppy global waters. The government is at pains to say it can't control global events, although it spent a lot of time criticising the previous government for blaming global events. The Trump administration's increased tariffs landed like a lead balloon on Friday, and prompted some late additions to the conference's run sheet. In his speech, Luxon acknowledged the tariffs, but said New Zealand can't just "batten down the hatch" and hope for the best. Trade minister Todd McClay took some time out of his rurals session to say he's already spoken to his US trade counterpart, and dispatched top trade diplomat Vangelis Vitalis to Washington. McClay will follow in the coming weeks. Domestically, National is still blaming the previous government for the economic conditions it inherited, and pitching that it needs a second term to truly sort it out. The party's putting a stake in the ground and saying next year's election will be all about the economy. Last Monday's 10-minute sermon from the podium , which set out the steps National had taken to address the cost of living, was a harbinger of what was to come at the weekend. Inside the cavernous National Air Force Museum, Luxon told media New Zealanders would have a "very simple choice" at the next election: "Do you trust the guys that actually crashed the economy and have no plan, or do you trust the guys in the government that's actually inherited a mess and is sorting it out and is making progress before that election?" Luxon did not mention the other "guys in the government" on Saturday. That's not unusual. This was, after all, a National Party event, full of National Party stump speeches. The party's deputy Nicola Willis, however, gave Luxon a shout-out for the "energy" it takes to keep Winston Peters and David Seymour under control. While joking he was targeting 100 percent of the vote in 2026, Luxon said after his speech that it was natural to disagree with his coalition partners, but they were aligned on the things that mattered. National leader Christopher Luxon speaks at the party's annual conference. Photo: RNZ / Giles Dexter National party supporters that RNZ spoke to were largely happy with how things were going, and how Luxon was keeping things in line. "We are very co-ordinated, very co-ordinated. We respect each other's policies and respect each other's decisions," said one member. "They're very aggressive people that he's in Parliament with, but he's handled it extremely well," said another. "It's like you're the mother in the house, and you have to herd two cats, who do co-operate sometimes, and other times they've got other agendas. From a managerial point of view, I think he's doing excellently in the light of the type of political system we've got." Some expressed wariness of what Peters would do next year, others sung from Luxon's songsheet that this was the maturity of MMP on display. "It's taking some managing, but it's all good. It's what MMP is about." "Everybody's looking at next year's election again, and obviously they want to get back in. So there's a bit of leverage, and nobody's got more experience at that than Winston." They were also convinced the country was going in the right direction, and that Luxon was the right person to steer it there. "We're starting to turn the corner. The last 18 months has been the clean-up job, and we're actually getting ready to turn the tank around now." "It just takes time, and people have got to be patient. They're doing everything that they possibly can, it's just a timing issue. Everybody's impatient." National's membership thinks the polls will firm in their favour as the public look more critically at the alternative. A Labour Party bereft of policy, juggling the niche demands of the more extreme Greens and Te Pāti Māori. Luxon wants the country to "say yes" to more. More mining, more infrastructure, more housing, more tourism, more growth. Opening up more concessions on Department of Conservation land, and charging international visitors to visit some DOC sites is part of that "say yes" strategy. Twenty to forty dollars is not a large sum to fork out for people who have paid thousands to come here, and it adds $62m to the conservation estate that New Zealanders won't have to pay for. There are still some implementation issues to work through. It remains to be seen whether New Zealanders will have to take a passport or bank statement to Cathedral Cove to get out of a fee. It's a small change, and one the government did not campaign or consult the public on, or put in its latest quarterly plan. There will be more to come as parties start to differentiate themselves and sound the election battle drums. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
NZ Herald
5 days ago
- Business
- NZ Herald
Ex-National Party president Peter Goodfellow on what threatens 2026 re-election
'Desley, I love you very much,' Goodfellow said, his voice catching in his throat. His final message to the party faithful was his best wishes in the 'fight to win the party vote in 2026'. Former National Party board member Peter Goodfellow (right) speaks at the party's annual conference in Christchurch alongside current party president Sylvia Wood. Photo / Adam Pearse Despite a party vote target in the mid-40s, National hadn't registered above 40% since January last year and hadn't breached 35% since April across several opinion pollsters. It received 38% in the 2023 election. Speaking to the Herald on Sunday, Goodfellow praised National's work while in Government but said the party's chief threat to re-election was the economy. 'I think people have responded really well on education with Erica [Stanford], I think Simeon [Brown] is doing a fantastic job in health, but it's the economy. 'If the economy suffers another shock then I think that the public can get tired of it and want change. 'I'm not seeing that at the moment, but there's a potential for that to happen if there were another series of shocks or a trade war.' Just hours before Goodfellow's farewell, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon confirmed Trade Minister Todd McClay would shortly travel to the United States to discuss President Donald Trump's announcement of 15% tariffs on New Zealand goods, an action Luxon described as 'blunt'. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (front) speaks to media in Christchurch alongside Conservation Minister Tama Potaka (left) and Tourism Minister Louise Upston at the National conference. Photo / Adam Pearse The news was an unwelcome development for the Government, given the potential for further pain for exporters, which would slow any economic recovery. Recent polls affirmed the cost of living as the primary issue for voters, with the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor finding people trusted Labour more than National to lower prices. Goodfellow acknowledged New Zealanders were 'tired' of not seeing meaningful cost-of-living relief. 'My understanding is there'll continue to be relief for that middle New Zealand, but it's almost like they're saying it's not enough, it's almost never going to be enough.' A self-professed early adopter of the 'survive til 25' slogan used in 2024, Goodfellow argued economic growth hadn't been overestimated, but Trump's approach to trade had eroded confidence. 'The issue is, how do you get a bit of momentum and that confidence again?' Former Prime Minister Sir John Key (right) and Peter Goodfellow speak after the latter's selection as party president in 2009. Photo / NZPA Goodfellow stepped down as National president in 2022, but had previously voiced his original intention to resign in 2016. 'John Key and I did discuss at the beginning that we shouldn't leave together,' he said. 'I just thought, 'Well, I don't want to do this role for a huge, long time', but then we lost the election and then we had a period of some stability and coming into the 2020 election, the board wanted me to continue on as the president. 'Then we had a couple of leadership changes which just again meant they wanted that stability and continuity at the party and at the board level and I think that actually worked out pretty well.' Amid a disastrous result in the 2020 election, Goodfellow faced pressure over the party's candidate selection processes when the actions of several standing in 2020 hurt National's chances. He also endured a challenge for the party presidency from former Speaker of the House Sir David Carter, who in 2021 said he had 'zero confidence' in Goodfellow's ability to right the ship. Goodfellow described that period as a 'very unstable time for the party'. 'I never thought I would ever develop such a thick hide,' he said. 'There's a lot of criticism in the world and in politics, but not all of it is justified. 'I knew I was supported by the board and the decisions that we were making and that's why ultimately [Carter's] challenge didn't succeed.' However, Goodfellow acknowledged changes to the party's vetting proved some of the criticism was warranted. 'The vetting was very casual 20 years ago, maybe because people knew who the candidates were, but suddenly, more recently, we have people not known to the party coming in from the outside and we clearly did what we thought was good vetting, but there are some instances of behaviour that you can't pick up, no matter how good you're vetting. 'Many [candidates] are suitable ... but they don't necessarily understand what's going to be involved and what's going to be required. 'The challenge then is, are they telling you everything that's going on and increasingly, we have to be more diligent to make sure that our members are respected by not having candidates put up in front of them that aren't suitable.' Asked to describe his lasting legacy with National, Goodfellow pointed to the various special interest groups within the party and his mission to make the party more inclusive. Those groups included the party's younger and older members' wings, as well as collectives of members from Chinese, Indian, Filipino, rural, Māori and Pasifika communities. 'I know that there was no such inclusion before it, it was very much a traditional-looking party,' Goodfellow said. 'Within the party, it's good for us to have groups that represent that culture, but also share the values and the philosophy of the National Party and want to be engaged in it.' Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald's Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.
NZ Herald
6 days ago
- Business
- NZ Herald
National Party president: Voters aren't seeing PM Christopher Luxon's ‘humanity'
National Party leader and Prime Minister Christopher Luxon claps alongside his party colleagues during last year's party conference. Photo / Claire Trevett Luxon will also be partnering Speaker of the House and long-time National MP Gerry Brownlee to give the members some entertainment. Speaking to the Herald from Christchurch, Luxon said his party was in 'very good heart' and believed its membership was feeling upbeat. 'We've been able to raise funds and we've got very good support, the members and supporters are very energised.' He said his central messages would be squarely focused on the Government's long-term economic plan. 'We're making progress. There's more to do, but we've got a very good economic plan that's doing the right things for the long-term.' Espousing National's economic management while in Government has been a common theme for Luxon and Finance Minister Nicola Willis in recent weeks as cost of living issues, such as the high price of butter, dominate public concern. In June, the Ipsos Issues Monitor found voters believed Labour was better equipped than National to manage the cost of living, which was ranked the issue of highest concern. National Party president Sylvia Wood spoke to the Herald ahead of the party's annual conference. Photo / Mark Mitchell Sitting down with the Herald ahead of the conference, Wood echoed her party leader by noting polls 'bounced around' but acknowledged the strain New Zealanders were under. 'We're good at economic management, but it's tough and you know, Liberation Day (US president Donald Trump's tariff announcement) didn't help,' she admitted. 'I'm very comfortable that we're working at the macro-level to get the fundamentals right that will really pay dividends downstream.' President since 2022, Wood would be putting herself forward to continue in the role as part of the party board selection process, which would include former president Peter Goodfellow stepping down as a board member. At last year's conference, Wood declared National should be polling in the mid-40s before the 2026 election after receiving 38% of the vote in 2023. Across several opinion pollsters, National hasn't registered above 40% since January last year and hasn't breached 35% since April. National Party president Sylvia Wood believed her party could achieve a mid-40s party vote percentage in the next election. Photo / Mark Mitchell Wood maintained a target in the 40s was feasible but said it relied heavily on the economy. 'When New Zealanders can see the cost of living easing and the economy thriving and the confidence that that will continue, I see party vote going up.' She believed the same would apply to Luxon's preferred PM ratings. Taxpayers' Union – Curia polling, which also conducted polling for National, found Luxon had dropped more than 15 percentage points in the last year to be neck-and-neck with Labour leader Chris Hipkins. Wood argued she saw a side to Luxon that often wasn't seen by the public. 'I think perhaps that the humanity of the man is perhaps not as visible,' Wood said. 'He's business-like and business isn't always seen as a hero in New Zealand. 'I would love the public to see the warmth and the humanity.' She recalled the popularity of Key and Ardern, and believed Luxon could match them, by leading economic recovery. 'We've had a couple of engaging leaders, Kiwis pretty much loved them in broad terms. 'But we've got someone who will thrive on that competency factor because he is really good at that.' Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has dropped in preferred PM ratings in some polls. Photo / Mark Mitchell Wood credited Luxon with managing what she described as a 'challenging' three-party coalition. 'We've got two [party] leaders who are clear about their particular positions, and our job is to address the cost of living and restore law and order … Erica [Stanford] is doing a wonderful job in education. 'The members are very, very comfortable with the progress we're making, but we appreciate it's difficult for people out there at the moment, the cost of living pressure is tough.' Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald's Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.
The Spinoff
02-07-2025
- Politics
- The Spinoff
Gone By Lunchtime: Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the supermarket
We discuss our issues. With an election about 15 months away, there are few better ways to get a sense of the political terrain than the Ipsos Issues Monitor, a survey that tracks the issues of greatest concern to New Zealanders, the parties they consider best equipped to deal with those issues, and how all of that has changed over time. In a new episode of Gone By Lunchtime, The Spinoff's politics podcast, Toby Manhire, Annabelle Lee-Mather and Ben Thomas assess the latest edition of the study. Cost of living had been subsiding in recent surveys, but the line has now poked back upward, with 55% picking it as one their three chief concerns. At the same time, respondents have, by a narrow margin, nominated Labour as the party better equipped to deal with the problem. Health, meanwhile, is second on the list of concerns, underscoring the challenge being taken on by Simeon Brown as health minister. Also on the agenda for discussion: Shane Jones is promoting a bill that would oblige Ngāpuhi to undertake a single commercial treaty settlement; does he have a point? And we reflect on the formidable legacy of Takutai Tarsh Kemp, Te Pati Māori MP for Tāmaki Makaurau since 2023, who died suddenly last week at the age of 50.
Otago Daily Times
20-06-2025
- Business
- Otago Daily Times
Arrest after woman found dead in Tūrangi
Labour has overtaken National as the party New Zealanders consider most able to handle the cost of living, according to the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor survey.
