Latest news with #IraqiDinar


Iraqi News
14 hours ago
- Business
- Iraqi News
Expert outlines 10 reasons for notable decline in US Dollar exchange rate in Iraq
Baghdad ( – The exchange rate of the US Dollar against the Iraqi Dinar has experienced a noticeable decline recently, driven by a complex interplay of economic and procedural factors. While each factor varies in its level of impact, their combined effect has bolstered the Dinar's strength. Economic expert Manar Al-Obaidi has identified ten primary reasons behind this trend. 1. Economic Contraction and Declining Consumer Confidence: Uncertainty in the Iraqi market, stemming from an economic slowdown, has led to a decrease in spending by individuals and institutions. This negatively affected overall demand, consequently reducing the need for the US Dollar as a driver of trade activity. 2. Halt in Government Investment Spending: The government's focus on operational rather than investment expenditures has slowed economic activity. Given that the general budget is the main engine of economic activity, reducing investment spending has lowered aggregate demand, including demand for the Dollar. 3. Tightened Border Controls: Government measures aimed at curbing smuggling and regulating relations with the Kurdistan Region have significantly reduced the phenomenon of inflated invoices. This has directly diminished the artificial demand for the US Dollar in the parallel market. 4. Merchants Shifting to Official Banking System: A large segment of merchants has transitioned into the official banking system, utilizing the official Dollar exchange rate through approved platforms. This shift has reduced the volume of transactions in the parallel market and eased pressure on the Dollar. 5. Decline in Re-export Operations: A reduction in the re-export of goods to neighboring countries has led to a decrease in demand for imported goods. This directly translated into a lower need for the US Dollar to finance such commercial operations. 6. Settling Major Company Dues with Oil Products Instead of Cash: The government has opted to settle a portion of foreign companies' dues using heavy fuel oil and naphtha instead of cash payments. This move has reduced reliance on Dollars sold by the Central Bank and increased the supply of Dollars in the market. 7. Preparations for Electoral Process: With the start of the election season, there has been an increase in spending related to election campaigns. This expenditure is often financed from Dollar reserves, necessitating their conversion into Dinars to cover campaign costs, thereby increasing the supply of Dollars in the market. 8. Rise in Number of Foreign Visitors and Arrivals: An increasing number of foreign visitors to Iraq has injected foreign currencies into the local market. This provides an additional source of hard currency outside the Central Bank's sales, contributing to a greater abundance of the US Dollar. 9. Cessation of Illicit Trade Due to Border Closure with Syria: The closure of border crossings with Syria has significantly curbed smuggling and illegal trade operations that heavily relied on the US Dollar in the parallel market. This has led to an additional decline in Dollar demand. 10. Decrease in Issued Currency and Withdrawal from Market: The Central Bank of Iraq has withdrawn a portion of the Dinar currency mass from the market. This action has created a doubled demand for the Iraqi Dinar against the US Dollar. This balance in demand levels between the two currencies has helped strengthen the Dinar's value and raise its exchange rate against the Dollar in the parallel market. These are the primary reasons contributing to the decline in exchange rates against the Dinar. The extent of each cause's impact on the official exchange rate remains a question, and other factors may also be at play. Al-Obaidi believes the sequence of reasons above reflects the significance of each cause's impact on the parallel market exchange rate.


Iraq Business
19-07-2025
- Business
- Iraq Business
Trump & Crypto: Will Bitcoin's Success Translate to the Iraqi Dinar?
By Guest Blogger. Any opinions expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News. Trump's Policies and Cryptocurrency: Will Bitcoin's Success Translate to the Iraqi Dinar? The relationship between political leadership and financial markets has rarely been as pronounced as it is today with cryptocurrency. Since Donald Trump's return to the presidency in January 2025, Bitcoin has experienced remarkable gains, prompting investors to wonder whether this success might extend to other alternative investments like the Iraqi Dinar. However, the fundamental differences between these assets reveal why Bitcoin's trajectory under Trump's administration is unlikely to be replicated by the Iraqi Dinar. Bitcoin's Meteoric Rise Under Trump's Pro-Crypto Policies Bitcoin has demonstrated extraordinary performance since Trump's re-election, with the cryptocurrency surging approximately 60% since November 2024 and reaching heights of $111,000. This dramatic increase can be attributed to several specific policy initiatives and strategic decisions by the Trump administration. The foundation of Bitcoin's success lies in Trump's complete reversal from his previous skeptical stance toward cryptocurrency. During his campaign, Trump promised to make America "the crypto capital of the planet," and his administration has delivered on this promise through concrete legislative and regulatory actions. In March 2025, Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, signaling the federal government's commitment to cryptocurrency adoption. The administration's approach has been systematically supportive of the cryptocurrency industry. Congress recently passed the first major crypto legislation in U.S. history, providing regulatory clarity that has been long sought by the industry. This regulatory framework has reduced uncertainty and encouraged institutional investment, contributing to Bitcoin's price appreciation. Trump's appointees reflect this pro-crypto stance, with one in five top administration picks holding cryptocurrency assets, some worth millions of dollars. This alignment between policy and personal investment demonstrates the administration's genuine commitment to cryptocurrency adoption rather than mere political rhetoric. The Iraqi Dinar: A Fundamentally Different Asset The Iraqi Dinar operates in an entirely different economic and political ecosystem from Bitcoin. While Bitcoin is a decentralized digital asset that responds to global market forces and regulatory changes, the Iraqi Dinar is a sovereign currency tied to Iraq's economic fundamentals and monetary policy decisions. Current exchange rate data shows the Iraqi Dinar trading at approximately 1,310 dinars per U.S. dollar as of July 2025, representing minimal fluctuation over the past year. The International Monetary Fund projects an average exchange rate of 1,300 dinars per dollar for both 2025 and 2026, indicating expectations of stability rather than dramatic appreciation. The Central Bank of Iraq has successfully transitioned to a new trade finance system managed by commercial banks, which has contributed to exchange rate stability. However, this stability is precisely what differentiates the Dinar from Bitcoin-the Iraqi currency is managed to maintain purchasing power rather than to serve as a speculative investment vehicle. Why Trump's Crypto Policies Won't Impact the Dinar Several fundamental factors explain why Trump's cryptocurrency-friendly policies cannot replicate Bitcoin's success with the Iraqi Dinar: Regulatory Jurisdiction : Trump's policies directly impact assets under U.S. regulatory authority. Bitcoin, as a global digital asset traded on U.S. exchanges and held by U.S. institutions, falls within this sphere of influence. The Iraqi Dinar, however, is governed by Iraq's Central Bank and monetary policy, which operates independently of U.S. cryptocurrency regulations. : Trump's policies directly impact assets under U.S. regulatory authority. Bitcoin, as a global digital asset traded on U.S. exchanges and held by U.S. institutions, falls within this sphere of influence. The Iraqi Dinar, however, is governed by Iraq's Central Bank and monetary policy, which operates independently of U.S. cryptocurrency regulations. Asset Classification : Bitcoin is treated as a digital commodity and investment vehicle, making it responsive to regulatory changes that affect investor sentiment and institutional adoption. The Iraqi Dinar functions as a national currency with exchange rates determined by economic fundamentals such as oil revenues, trade balances, and monetary policy decisions. : Bitcoin is treated as a digital commodity and investment vehicle, making it responsive to regulatory changes that affect investor sentiment and institutional adoption. The Iraqi Dinar functions as a national currency with exchange rates determined by economic fundamentals such as oil revenues, trade balances, and monetary policy decisions. Market Dynamics : Bitcoin's price appreciation stems from increased institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and speculative investment driven by Trump's supportive policies. The Iraqi Dinar's value is tied to Iraq's economic performance, oil exports, and regional stability-factors largely unrelated to U.S. cryptocurrency policy. : Bitcoin's price appreciation stems from increased institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and speculative investment driven by Trump's supportive policies. The Iraqi Dinar's value is tied to Iraq's economic performance, oil exports, and regional stability-factors largely unrelated to U.S. cryptocurrency policy. Investment Infrastructure: The cryptocurrency ecosystem has developed sophisticated trading platforms, custody solutions, and financial products that respond rapidly to policy changes. The Iraqi Dinar lacks this infrastructure for speculative investment, with most transactions occurring through traditional foreign exchange channels focused on trade and remittances rather than investment. Economic Realities and Market Projections Financial forecasts for the Iraqi Dinar suggest continued stability rather than dramatic appreciation. Market projections indicate potential slight depreciation, with the exchange rate possibly reaching around 1,318 IQD per USD by the end of 2025. These projections reflect expectations of gradual economic adjustments rather than the explosive growth seen in Bitcoin. Iraq's economy remains heavily dependent on oil revenues, which are calculated based on the exchange rate of 1,300 dinars to one dollar in the federal budget. This dependency on commodity prices and the government's fiscal management creates a fundamentally different value proposition from Bitcoin's technology-driven and adoption-based appreciation. The Broader Investment Landscape The contrast between Bitcoin and the Iraqi Dinar illustrates a broader principle about how different asset classes respond to political and regulatory changes. Bitcoin's success under Trump's administration demonstrates the power of regulatory clarity and institutional support for emerging asset classes. The cryptocurrency's decentralized nature and global trading infrastructure make it particularly responsive to positive policy developments. Traditional currencies, even those from developing economies, operate within established monetary systems designed for stability rather than speculation. The Iraqi Dinar's role as a medium of exchange and store of value for Iraq's economy necessitates careful management to prevent the volatility that investors seek in alternative assets. Conclusion While Trump's pro-cryptocurrency policies have created a favorable environment for Bitcoin's remarkable performance, these same policies cannot produce similar results for the Iraqi Dinar. The fundamental differences between a decentralized digital asset and a sovereign currency mean that each responds to entirely different sets of economic and political factors. Bitcoin's success under Trump's administration reflects the power of regulatory support and institutional adoption in driving speculative asset prices. The Iraqi Dinar's stability reflects the careful monetary management required to maintain a functioning national currency. Investors considering whether Trump's policies might benefit the Iraqi Dinar should recognize that the two assets exist in fundamentally different economic ecosystems, with success metrics that are not only different but often contradictory. The lesson for investors is clear: while political leadership can significantly impact certain asset classes, the specific characteristics of each investment determine how it responds to policy changes. Bitcoin's technological foundation and speculative nature make it responsive to regulatory developments, while the Iraqi Dinar's role as a national currency requires it to prioritize stability over explosive growth. For more information on the Iraqi dinar, check out IBN's Dinar Page here:


Iraq Business
27-06-2025
- Business
- Iraq Business
Iraqi Dinar Q&A: RV Prospects Two Weeks on from Airstrikes on Iran
By Guest Blogger. Any opinions expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News. Q: Following your recent article on the Dinar Revaluation (RV) and Israeli Airstrikes on Iran, the situation in the region has progressed. What is your current assessment as it relates to the dinar (IQD)? A: It has now been two weeks since the initial Israeli airstrikes on Iran, and the situation has continued to evolve. While a US-brokered ceasefire was announced on 23rd June, following a 12-day conflict that saw exchanges of missile and drone attacks, the broader implications for Iraq and the Iraqi Dinar's potential revaluation remain complex and largely negative. Here's a follow-up based on the latest developments: Lingering Instability and Uncertainty Despite the ceasefire, the underlying tensions between Israel and Iran persist, and this continued regional instability is a significant factor for Iraq. While Iraq itself largely avoided direct involvement in the recent fighting, its geographic proximity means it remains highly susceptible to any fallout. Political and Security Concerns: The conflict highlighted the potential for regional power struggles to spill into Iraq, impacting its already fragile domestic stability. There have been reports of continued efforts to manage the influence of Iran-aligned Iraqi groups, and the risk of renewed hostilities involving these groups remains. The conflict highlighted the potential for regional power struggles to spill into Iraq, impacting its already fragile domestic stability. There have been reports of continued efforts to manage the influence of Iran-aligned Iraqi groups, and the risk of renewed hostilities involving these groups remains. Economic Vulnerability: Iraq's economy, heavily reliant on oil exports, is particularly vulnerable. While there was a short-term rise in oil prices during the conflict, which generated some additional revenue, this was largely offset by increased import costs due to disruptions in maritime insurance markets, global price fluctuations, higher shipping expenses, and a decline in air transport and religious tourism. An Iraqi government adviser described the conflict's impact as a "double-edged shock," leaving the Iraqi economy in a state of "neutral uncertainty." Dinar Under Pressure The Iraqi Dinar has continued to face headwinds, largely due to the pervasive uncertainty and ongoing economic challenges. Dollarisation and Parallel Market: The increased regional tension has reinforced the demand for the US dollar as a safe haven. While the official Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) rate remains stable at 1,320 IQD to $1, the parallel market has seen fluctuations. Recent reports indicate that USD/IQD exchange rates have edged lower in Baghdad and Erbil, with selling prices for $100 ranging from 141,750 IQD to 142,250 IQD, still significantly above the official rate. This persistent gap is a clear indicator of market pressure and a lack of confidence in the Dinar. The increased regional tension has reinforced the demand for the US dollar as a safe haven. While the official Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) rate remains stable at 1,320 IQD to $1, the parallel market has seen fluctuations. Recent reports indicate that USD/IQD exchange rates have edged lower in Baghdad and Erbil, with selling prices for $100 ranging from 141,750 IQD to 142,250 IQD, still significantly above the official rate. This persistent gap is a clear indicator of market pressure and a lack of confidence in the Dinar. Smuggling Concerns: The issue of dollar smuggling to Iran, aimed at circumventing US sanctions, continues to plague Iraq's financial system. This illicit flow of currency further limits the CBI's ability to effectively manage the Dinar's value and build confidence for a revaluation. The issue of dollar smuggling to Iran, aimed at circumventing US sanctions, continues to plague Iraq's financial system. This illicit flow of currency further limits the CBI's ability to effectively manage the Dinar's value and build confidence for a revaluation. Budgetary Challenges: Iraq is facing significant fiscal strains, with the 2025 federal budget unlikely to be submitted to Parliament anytime soon. This delay is attributed to "severe financial deficits, unstable revenue streams, the absence of a coherent economic vision, and the looming legislative elections." A parliamentary finance committee member noted a budget deficit of nearly 80 trillion IQD (approximately $61 billion), which puts immense pressure on government spending and the overall economic outlook. Delays in the budget can directly impact public salaries and infrastructure projects, further dampening economic sentiment. Outlook for Revaluation Given these ongoing developments, the prospect of an Iraqi Dinar revaluation in the near future appears highly improbable. The confluence of factors including: Continued regional instability and potential for escalation. Persistent demand for the US dollar and challenges in the parallel market. Ongoing issues with dollar smuggling and US sanctions. Significant internal budgetary deficits and political uncertainty within Iraq. all contribute to an environment that is not conducive to a revaluation. While Iraq's vast oil reserves are a long-term asset, the immediate economic and geopolitical landscape presents too many hurdles. The Iraqi government's focus is currently on managing the existing economic challenges and navigating the complex regional dynamics, rather than pursuing a revaluation. For more information on the Iraqi dinar, check out IBN's Dinar Page here:


Iraq Business
13-06-2025
- Business
- Iraq Business
Iraqi Dinar Q&A: Dinar Revaluation (RV) and Israeli Airstrikes on Iran
By Guest Blogger. Any opinions expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News. Q: What effect will Israel's airstrikes on Iran have on any potential revaluation of the Iraqi dinar? A: This week's Israeli airstrikes on Iran, targeting nuclear and military sites, will likely have a negative effect on any potential revaluation of the Iraqi Dinar, at least in the short term. Here's why: Increased Regional Instability The conflict between Israel and Iran is a major source of instability in the Middle East. Iraq, being a direct neighbour to Iran and having complex political and economic ties with both countries, is highly susceptible to the fallout from such tensions. Increased regional conflict generally leads to capital flight and a preference for safer currencies like the US dollar, which puts downward pressure on local currencies like the Iraqi Dinar. Safe-Haven Demand for USD As investors and even ordinary citizens become more apprehensive about the future, they tend to move their assets into more stable and liquid currencies. The US dollar is traditionally seen as a global safe-haven currency. This increased demand for USD in Iraq would further weaken the Dinar against the dollar in the parallel markets, making any revaluation less likely. Impact on Oil Prices While a spike in oil prices due to regional conflict might seem beneficial for an oil-dependent economy like Iraq's, the immediate effect on the Dinar is often outweighed by the increased instability. Furthermore, if the conflict were to escalate and impact shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq's oil export revenues could be severely affected, which would be detrimental to the Dinar. Smuggling and Sanctions Concerns Iraq has faced challenges with dollar smuggling to Iran, partly due to US sanctions on Iran. Escalated tensions and potential new sanctions could exacerbate these issues, further disrupting Iraq's financial system and the Dinar's stability. Political and Economic Uncertainty in Iraq The Iraqi Dinar's value is already influenced by a range of internal factors, including political stability, government spending, and efforts to control corruption. Regional conflicts add another layer of uncertainty, making it harder for the Central Bank of Iraq to manage the exchange rate and implement policies that could lead to a revaluation.


Iraq Business
09-06-2025
- Business
- Iraq Business
Tabaqchali: Humongous Dividends Boost the Iraqi Market
By Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Strategist of AFC Iraq Fund. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News . "Humongous Dividends Boost the Market" The market, as measured by the Rabee Securities U. S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), closed at an all-time high for May, with an increase of 0.7%, and is up 4.0% for the year. However, there is more to the Index's 0.7% increase than meets the eye due to the nature of the index's market value-weighted calculation that incorporates stock price changes, but not dividends, that negatively affected the index's monthly performance far more than in the prior years. The culprits were two humongous dividend announcements of 14.5% and 11.5% by two of its ten components, the Bank of Baghdad (BBOB) and Asiacell Communications (TASC), respectively, with a 28.6% and 10.6% index weighting at the end of April. If these two dividends, as well as another component's 0.3% dividend, were incorporated in the index's calculations, then it would have been up 6.4% for the month. Preceding TASC's and BBOB's dividend announcements, a few weeks earlier was the National Bank of Iraq (BNOI), another major component of the index with a 22.3% weighting at end of April, which declared a 4.9% per share cash dividend and a 30% share dividend. The combination was effectively equivalent to a 12.3% dividend yield. The two bank's oversized dividends follow from the outstanding earnings and book value growth enjoyed by the top banks in the country over the last two years, as reported here in "Banks End a Second Year with a Bang", in which the earnings two-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) was 203% for BNOI and 104% for BBOB (table below). For TASC, its dividend increased by 50% year-over-year, from Iraqi Dinar (IQD) 1.0 to IQD 1.50 per share, with the dividend payout ratio increasing to 118% from 88%, reflecting the ongoing growth in the company's earnings over the last two years with a 22% CAGR (table below), and its cash generating model that resulted in the build-up of huge reserves over the last few years. The market, while expecting such a high dividend, nevertheless received it enthusiastically on the day the stock went ex-dividend. According to the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) trading regulations, the ISX sets the stock lower by the amount of the dividend payout on the ex-dividend date; in other words, it lowered the stock's price by IQD 1.50, yet this was completely reversed, on a high trading volume, with the stock ending at the same price that it was before it went ex-dividend. As such, effectively rallying 13% versus the ISX's ex-dividend price adjustment. Promisingly, it increased by a further 3% again on high trading volumes by month's close, in the process reflecting the market's expectation for further strong earnings growth for the company, and continued high dividends. Earnings and Book Values for Selected Companies ( Source: Rabee Securities, company reports, and AFC Research. Unaudited data as of end 2024* ) The backdrop to the strong growth enjoyed by the country's top companies, as reflected in declared dividends, stems from the relative stability that the country enjoyed over the last few years; that provided a stable and predictable macroeconomic framework for businesses and individuals to operate in and to plan for capital investments on a scale not seen in the prior decades of conflict. The stock market's upside potential in discounting these developments was the focus of a recent report, "Investing in Iraq, yet more gain to come" by Undervalued Shares " itself a second report on Iraq after the initial report four years ago, with the RSISX USD index increasing by 179% between the two reports, i.e. between June 2021 and May 2025. The over-arching theme, as discussed in "What Next After Two Gangbuster Years?" is that both of the two key dynamics discussed here in the past -the cumulative positive effects of the relative stability and structural banking developments- are in the early stages of their transformation of the Iraqi economy, a process that would unfold over the next few years, bringing with it high economic growth that would feed into higher corporate earnings, and ultimately higher stock market returns. Nonetheless, as discussed last month in "Market at an All-time High, Oil Prices Crashing, What Gives?", the negative effects of lower oil prices on the economy will become a headwind, reversing the positive tailwind of the past two years. Yet, the secular positives of the economic transformation should overcome the drag from the cyclical negatives and thus continue to drive the market's direction. The equity market, as measured by the Rabee Securities U. S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), having surpassed its 2014 peak by 11.1% by the end of May, has the potential to rally further reflecting the powerful dynamics discussed here over the last few months. However, risks remain given Iraq's recent history of conflict, extreme leverage to volatile oil prices, especially in the current uncertain global environment, as well as the risk that a widening of the current Middle East conflict will not be contained and evolve to destabilise the region. Notes: * Using unaudited quarterly data, and earnings are net profit after tax. IBSD's net profit for 2024 is arrived at after accounting for the company's tax rate. Please click here to download Ahmed Tabaqchali's full report in pdf format . Mr Tabaqchali ( @AMTabaqchali ) is the Chief Strategist of the AFC Iraq Fund, and is an experienced capital markets professional with over 25 years' experience in US and MENA markets. He is a Visiting Fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS), and a Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. His comments, opinions and analyses are personal views and are intended to be for informational purposes and general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any fund or security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax or investment advice. The information provided in this material is compiled from sources that are believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made of its correctness, is rendered as at publication date and may change without notice and it is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding Iraq, the region, market or investment.