Latest news with #Isidor
Forbes
24-05-2025
- Climate
- Forbes
4 Reasons Why Perfect Weather Forecasts Still Aren't Enough
LONDON, KENTUCKY - MAY 17: Tony McFall wears his father's cowboy hat, while looking over the debris ... More of his father's and step-mother's house, who lost their lives during the tornado in the neighborhood of Sunshine Hills on May 17, 2025 in London, Kentucky. A tornado struck communities in Somerset and London, Kentucky, leaving over 10 dead and more injured. (Photo by) This week it was reported that sirens did not go off as deadly tornadic storms moved through the city of St. Louis. Officials are investigating what went wrong. This incident and conversations with non-meteorologist friends at a recent cookout inspired this essay. In that moment of post-graduation celebration and good fellowship, it hit me. We could have a perfect forecast, and it is still may not be enough to save lives unless we address other parts of the communication chain. I am not naive. As a meteorologist, I know that we will ever have perfect forecasts. At the end of the day, we are using complex equations, computer models, observations, and experience to predict how the fluid above our heads is changing in the next few minutes, hours or several days. In such predictions, we also have to consider that Earth is rotating; conditions on the ground affect weather; data is incomplete; and physics is hard. Even with those caveats, weather predictions are quite good. PEACHTREE CITY, GA - SEPTEMBER 26: A meteorologist with the National Weather Service, tracks the ... More progress of Tropical Storm Isidore September 26, 2002 in Peachtree City, Georgia. The system is bringing in much-needed rain to the Southeast which is in the midst of a five-year drought. (Photo by Erik S. Lesser/Getty Images) Of course, we get comments and jokes about meteorologists and forecasts, but I often find that rooted in misuse of forecast information, reliance on flawed apps, or unrealistic expectations related to precise locations. A 30% chance of rain verified if it rained in your area even if you were not expecting it at your child's soccer game. A tornado warning for a region verified if a twister moved through your county even if it didn't affect your community. Which leads me back to our discussion about perfect forecasts. Forecast skill has advanced over time due to more powerful computers, advanced radar systems, satellites, field campaigns, and scientific research. Think about the last time you saw reports of a airplane crashing because of wind shear or a hurricane surprising a coastal community like the Galveston storm of 1900. It just doesn't happen anymore. Just recently, I wrote about technology that is starting to enable up to two hours of lead time for a specific tornado. In 2025, it is extremely unlikely that a tornado does not have some level of warning. Frankly, it usually comes in multiple forms ranging from multiple day outlooks, watches, and warnings. Yet, we still get headlines like, 'It came without warning!' And for a person that never saw those warnings, watches, or outlooks, it certainly did. That's my first point. Even if the forecast was perfect, if someone doesn't receive the information, they cannot act upon it. While we are a more connected society than ever, people still miss weather alerts, warnings, or emergency management directives. They just do. They may not be watching television. They may have disabled alert systems on their smartphone. They may not have access to their smartphone or even own one. By the way, there is a separate article that I could write about disproportionate impacts and access to information for certain communities, but I will save that for a different day. There are tens of other reasons people don't get that 'perfect forecast," and I am not sure how to solve that challenge. Sirens are meant to alert people. As we saw in St. Louis, however, there was some type of breakdown in protocol for triggering the sirens. Human error or other system breakdowns can dilute appropriate weather information. For example, I cringed recently to see a story about cars stopping to shelter under an interstate overpass in Missouri. That mistake endangered many lives, including their own. Let's get back to tornado sirens. Sirens are not meant to be heard inside. You may hear them inside, but they are not designed to be your indoor warning system. The National Weather Service website noted, 'Sirens are an outdoor warning system designed only to alert those who are outside that something dangerous is approaching.' I have seen many instances in which people complained about not hearing the sirens in their homes. It is important to have multiple ways to receive storm alerts and to be aware earlier in the day that severe weather is possible. Before you go to bed, you should always have a night plan and awareness of potential weather threats. Speaking of storm awareness, one friend at that cookout made a point that stuck with me. She noted that the St. Louis region routinely experiences the threat of severe weather, which can make it hard to discern when a true threat is happening. This is called normalcy bias, a type of cognitive bias that causes people to dismiss or minimize warnings because of familiarity or expectation that 'normal' conditions prevail. In the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey (2017), I recall media interviews in which people said things like, 'We get rain and flooding in Houston all of the time, didn't think it would be this bad.' Scholars have discussed ways to overcome normalcy bias, but it is still one our biggest barriers to achieving the 'perfect' forecast and response. Other psychological barriers exist too. People exhibit optimism bias if they survived a previous hurricane or tornadic storm without taking any action. Motivated reasoning causes people to make a poor decision, like driving into a flooded roadway or sitting in a stadium while lightning flashes around, because they have a desired outcome. I often see businesses, school systems, and other institutions exhibit motivated reasoning too. In recent decades, the field of meteorology had an "aha" moment. The growth of social and behavioral sciences within our field has been important. We now understand that responses needed from weather risk communication will not come exclusively from just a better radar or computer model. People need to receive the information and understand what they are receiving. If someone does not understand what the 'cone of uncertainty' means as a hurricane approaches or the difference between tornado 'watch/warning," they may take the wrong actions or none at all. Meteorologist Hugh Johnson points to the forecast cone of Hurricane Sandy on a computer map at the ... More National Weather Service on Fuller Rd. on Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012 in Albany, N.Y. This is the predicted path zone for the hurricane as of the time this photo was taken. (Photo by Lori Van Buren/Albany Times Union via Getty Images)
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Sunderland edge Coventry in Championship play-off semi-final first leg after late Eliezer Mayenda goal
Eliezer Mayenda scored a late winner as Sunderland flipped the form book on its head to beat Coventry 2-1 and steal a march in their Championship play-off semi-final. Despite finishing seven points ahead of their opponents, Sunderland's form had flat-lined towards the end of the regular season with five successive defeats and just one goal in a six-game winless streak. But, after defending resolutely against a side they had lost 3-0 to in March, Sunderland were clinical on the counter-attack and Mayenda's 88th-minute goal gave the Black Cats a 2-1 victory. Wilson Isidor had put Sunderland ahead after 68 minutes but while their opponents were level within 110 seconds thanks to Jack Rudoni, Mayenda had the final say at the Coventry Building Society Arena. Coventry had won seven of their last eight matches at home but they will now need to pick themselves up for Tuesday's second leg at the Stadium of Light as they bid for a second play-off final in three years. Sunderland's lack of confidence was epitomised early on by Anthony Patterson flapping horribly and cleaning out a couple of his own defenders following Jay Dasilva's innocuous header back into the area. But as Haji Wright, Coventry's hat-trick hero against Sunderland just a few weeks ago, tripped, the covering Luke O'Nien spared his goalkeeper's blushes, clearing just a couple of feet from his own line. The visitors, though, were largely content to soak up pressure and frustrate Coventry, while the half-chances were squandered as Ben Sheaf sliced wide from a decent position and Matt Grimes volleyed over. Mayenda demonstrated Sunderland's counter-attacking threat by bursting forward from his own half, shrugging off Liam Kitching's challenge before firing just wide, with Ben Wilson well beaten. For all of Coventry's possession, that was the best chance of the half and the pattern continued after the interval, with Brandon Thomas-Asante unable to get on top of Dasilva's cross as he headed over. At the other end, Jobe Bellingham worked himself into an excellent position but struck team-mate Dan Ballard before Sunderland were rewarded from another break with Isidor finishing with aplomb. The Frenchman ghosted into space down Sunderland's left and latched on to Enzo Le Fee's ball behind the Coventry defence before racing unchallenged into area and firing across a helpless Wilson. Perhaps in disbelief at their first goal in four matches, with Isidor ending a drought stretching back to February, Sunderland were uncharacteristically loose and conceded within two minutes of going ahead. Milan van Ewijk, perhaps guilty of allowing Isidor too much space a couple of minutes earlier, raced to the byline and directed a cross for an unmarked Rudoni to head home his fourth goal in three games. While the crowd erupted and the hosts pushed forward at every opportunity, Sunderland showed they were not settling for a draw as Patrick Roberts curled narrowly wide before Mayenda struck. The 20-year-old took advantage of a wayward pass back from Van Ewijk to get to the ball first, round Wilson, who had hared out of his area, and coolly dispatched into an empty net.
The 42
09-05-2025
- Sport
- The 42
Eliezer Mayenda's late winner gives Sunderland edge over Coventry in play-off
ELIEZER MAYENDA scored a late winner as Sunderland flipped the form book on its head to beat Coventry 2-1 and steal a march in their Sky Bet Championship play-off semi-final. Despite finishing seven points ahead of their opponents, Sunderland's form had flat-lined towards the end of the regular season with five successive defeats and just one goal in a six-game winless streak. But, after defending resolutely against a side they had lost 3-0 to in March, Sunderland were clinical on the counter-attack and Mayenda's 87th-minute goal gave the Black Cats a 2-1 victory. Wilson Isidor had put Sunderland ahead after 68 minutes, but while their opponents were level within 110 seconds thanks to Jack Rudoni, Mayenda had the final say at the Coventry Building Society Arena. Coventry had won seven of their last eight matches at home, but they will now need to pick themselves up for Tuesday's second leg at the Stadium of Light as they bid for a second play-off final in three years. Advertisement Sunderland's lack of confidence was epitomised early on by Anthony Patterson flapping horribly and cleaning out a couple of his own defenders following Jay Dasilva's innocuous header back into the area. But as Haji Wright, Coventry's hat-trick hero against Sunderland just a few weeks ago, tripped, the covering Luke O'Nien spared his goalkeeper's blushes, clearing just a couple of feet from his own line. The visitors, though, were largely content to soak up pressure and frustrate Coventry, while the half-chances were squandered as Ben Sheaf sliced wide from a decent position and Matt Grimes volleyed over. Mayenda demonstrated Sunderland's counter-attacking threat by bursting forward from his own half, shrugging off Liam Kitching's challenge before firing just wide, with Ben Wilson well beaten. For all of Coventry's possession, that was the best chance of the half, and the pattern continued after the interval, with Brandon Thomas-Asante unable to get on top of Dasilva's cross as he headed over. At the other end, Jobe Bellingham worked himself into an excellent position but struck team-mate Dan Ballard before Sunderland were rewarded from another break with Isidor finishing with aplomb. The Frenchman ghosted into space down Sunderland's left and latched on to Enzo Le Fee's ball behind the Coventry defence before racing unchallenged into the area and firing across a helpless Wilson. Perhaps in disbelief at their first goal in four matches, with Isidor ending a drought stretching back to February, Sunderland were uncharacteristically loose and conceded within two minutes of going ahead. Milan van Ewijk, perhaps guilty of allowing Isidor too much space a couple of minutes earlier, raced to the byline and directed a cross for an unmarked Rudoni to head home his fourth goal in three games. While the crowd erupted and the hosts pushed forward at every opportunity, Sunderland showed they were not settling for a draw as Patrick Roberts curled narrowly wide before Mayenda struck. The 20-year-old took advantage of a wayward pass back from Van Ewijk to get to the ball first, round Wilson, who had hared out of his area, and coolly dispatched it into an empty net.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
🚨 Sunderland seal smash and grab win at Coventry in semi-final first leg
Sunderland ripped up the form book to seal a smash and grab 2-1 win against Coventry in the first leg of their Championship playoff semi-final at the Coventry Building Society Rudoni 70'; Isidor 68', Mayenda 88' Coventry dominated the first half, with Régis Le Bris setting his Black Cats side up to defend and counter almost from the first whistle. Their approach worked with the Sky Blues having very few clear cut chances despite having nearly all of the ball. Little changed after the break, but the game finally picked up with a frantic final quarter, and it was Sunderland who scored on the break. Dan Neil got the ball to Enzo Le Fée quickly, and the midfielder glided up the pitch before slipping in Wilson Isidor. For a striker who had not scored in near-three months, his finish past Ben Wilson was unnerving when put through on goal. His joy would be short-lived with the lead lasting just 110 seconds as Jack Rudoni rose to power a brilliant header past Anthony Patterson from Milan van Ewijk's cross. Both sides went for the win, with the visitors happier with the draw, but they would be gifted the win from the man who helped cut out their lead. Van Ewijk's back pass was under hit, allowing Eliezer Mayenda to seize the ball, round Wilson and slot home. The two sides will meet again on Tuesday, with Frank Lampard hoping for another famous semi-final comeback. 📸 Marc Atkins - 2025 Getty Images
RTÉ News
09-05-2025
- Sport
- RTÉ News
Eliezer Mayenda earns Sunderland upper hand over Coventry
Eliezer Mayenda scored a late winner as Sunderland flipped the form book on its head to beat Coventry 2-1 and steal a march in their Sky Bet Championship play-off semi-final. Despite finishing seven points ahead of their opponents, Sunderland's form had flat-lined towards the end of the regular season with five successive defeats and just one goal in a six-game winless streak. But, after defending resolutely against a side they had lost 3-0 to in March, Sunderland were clinical on the counter-attack and Mayenda's 87th-minute goal gave the Black Cats a 2-1 victory. Wilson Isidor had put Sunderland ahead after 68 minutes but while their opponents were level within 110 seconds thanks to Jack Rudoni, Mayenda had the final say at the Coventry Building Society Arena. Coventry had won seven of their last eight matches at home but they will now need to pick themselves up for Tuesday's second leg at the Stadium of Light as they bid for a second play-off final in three years. Sunderland's lack of confidence was epitomised early on by Anthony Patterson flapping horribly and cleaning out a couple of his own defenders following Jay Dasilva's innocuous header back into the area. But as Haji Wright, Coventry's hat-trick hero against Sunderland just a few weeks ago, tripped, the covering Luke O'Nien spared his goalkeeper's blushes, clearing just a couple of feet from his own line. The visitors, though, were largely content to soak up pressure and frustrate Coventry, while the half-chances were squandered as Ben Sheaf sliced wide from a decent position and Matt Grimes volleyed over. Mayenda demonstrated Sunderland's counter-attacking threat by bursting forward from his own half, shrugging off Liam Kitching's challenge before firing just wide, with Ben Wilson well beaten. For all of Coventry's possession, that was the best chance of the half and the pattern continued after the interval, with Brandon Thomas-Asante unable to get on top of Dasilva's cross as he headed over. At the other end, Jobe Bellingham worked himself into an excellent position but struck team-mate Dan Ballard before Sunderland were rewarded from another break with Isidor finishing with aplomb. The Frenchman ghosted into space down Sunderland's left and latched on to Enzo Le Fee's ball behind the Coventry defence before racing unchallenged into area and firing across a helpless Wilson. Perhaps in disbelief at their first goal in four matches, with Isidor ending a drought stretching back to February, Sunderland were uncharacteristically loose and conceded within two minutes of going ahead. Milan van Ewijk, perhaps guilty of allowing Isidor too much space a couple of minutes earlier, raced to the byline and directed a cross for an unmarked Rudoni to head home his fourth goal in three games. While the crowd erupted and the hosts pushed forward at every opportunity, Sunderland showed they were not settling for a draw as Patrick Roberts curled narrowly wide before Mayenda struck. The 20-year-old took advantage of a wayward pass back from Van Ewijk to get to the ball first, round Wilson, who had hared out of his area, and coolly dispatched into an empty net.
