Latest news with #IsraelIranConflict
Yahoo
23 minutes ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Israel-Iran clash delivers a fresh shock to investors. History suggests this is the move to make.
Markets are having another bout of nerves after Israel bombed Iran, which is believed to have fired back drones in response. But already there are signs that investors' geopolitical angst may have peaked. S&P 500 futures ES00 are off session lows and oil prices CL.1 have nearly cut in half their earlier spike. My husband is in hospice care. Friends say his children are lining up for his money. What can I do? These defense stocks offer the best growth prospects, as the Israel-Iran conflict fuels new interest in the sector 'He failed in his fiduciary duty': My brother liquidated our mother's 401(k) for her nursing home. He claimed the rest. Why bonds aren't acting like a safe haven for investors amid the Israel-Iran conflict Walmart's stock looks like it's in trouble. What the chart says may come next. For those investors fortunate enough not to be directly impacted by the conflict the reaction is, given past events, understandable. 'Financial markets are always incredibly quick to price in geopolitical fear, but tend to be equally quick to discount it again, seeing the risk premium fade in short order,' says Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. A report by the International Monetary Fund, released in April, shows that mostly to be true, though countries and sectors obviously can react differently depending on their proximity and/or sensitivity to the conflict. 'Stock prices have generally had a modest reaction to geopolitical risk events, but major events — especially military conflicts — have a disproportionally larger and more persistent effect on asset prices,' say the IMF researchers Salih Fendoglu, Mahvash S. Qureshi, and Felix Suntheim. They looked at the frequency of news stories as a guide to the heft of geopolitical events and found that the average monthly drop for stocks is about 1 percentage point across countries, though it's a fall of 2.5% for emerging markets. 'Of the different types of major geopolitical risk events, international military conflicts hit emerging market stocks the hardest, likely because of more severe economic disruptions compared with other events. In these cases, the average monthly drop in stock returns is a significant 5 percentage points, twice as much as for all other types of events,' says the IMF team. The good news is that average stock market returns after major global geopolitical risks usually turn positive after just a month. But that can depend on the conflict's characteristics and it's varying impacts on asset classes, sectors and countries. 'For example, supply-chain disruptions may increase commodity prices but decrease stock prices if the disruptions are expected to have an adverse effect on economic activity. Differences may also arise across sectors: for example, the energy sector may benefit if supply-chain disruptions raise oil prices, whereas energy-dependent sectors are likely to suffer in such a case,' says the IMF. Concerns about crimped oil supply linked to a conflict, as is the case was Friday, can produce more prolonged negative market reactions. Iraq's invasion of Kuwait saw the S&P 500 SPX post real negative returns for six months, for example, while the 1973 oil embargo saw the S&P 500 deliver negative real returns of more than 60% after several months. Deutsche Bank, in a note published last year, provided a more detailed table of S&P 500 reactions to major geopolitical events. It seems to suggest that the stock market has of late become better able to absorb such tensions. 'Geopolitical events have often created short, sharp market shocks, but with little lasting impact beyond weeks,' says the Deutsche team led by strategist Jim Reid. After the initial anxiety dies down the macroeconomic drivers take back control. 'So on this basis you should generally buy into geopolitical risk,' says Deutsche. But they add: 'The question is whether we're entering a new phase given that tensions are rising, or whether geopolitical risk continues to create more fear than reality.' U.S. stock-indices SPX DJIA COMP are all lower at the opening bell as benchmark Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rise. The dollar index DXY is higher, while oil prices CL.1 jump and gold GC00 is trading around $3,443 an ounce. Key asset performance Last 5d 1m YTD 1y S&P 500 6045.26 1.78% 2.17% 2.78% 11.25% Nasdaq Composite 19,662.48 1.89% 2.88% 1.82% 11.29% 10-year Treasury 4.348 -16.40 -13.60 -22.80 12.00 Gold 3444.1 3.40% 7.45% 30.49% 46.66% Oil 72.53 11.98% 17.12% 0.92% -7.10% Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern. U.S. economic data due Friday include the preliminary reading of June consumer sentiment, due for release at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. U.S. President Donald Trump said he still thinks a deal can be reached with Iran over its nuclear program. Adobe shares ADBE are lower despite the digital media group beating earnings estimates and raising its guidance. Shares of RH RH, formerly Restoration Hardware, are surging nearly 20% after the retailer reported a surprise adjusted profit during the first quarter and kept its full-year outlook. China has delayed the approval of a $35 billion merger in the semiconductor sector between Synopsys SNPS and Ansys ANSS, according to the Financial Times. Meta Platforms META is reported to have made a $14.3 billion investment in Scale AI. Here come the glassholes, part II. Walmart and Amazon are exploring their own stablecoins. China forced to keep unprofitable firms alive to save jobs and avoid unrest. Nominally, households are more exposed to equities than at any point historically, with data extending back to 1945, according to Troy Ludka, senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. Even after adjusting for rising stock market price to earnings multiples, households' current equity allocation is topped by just one other period — the IT bubble that peaked in 2000. Ludka says this is important for two reasons: 'First, households tend to promote volatility by investing at peaks and selling at lows. Secondly, if households have little additional capacity to expand their equity allocation, sustaining market prices will require marginal buyers to emerge from elsewhere.' With consumption linked to stock market performance it means policymakers will need to support markets to ensure an economic downturn does not worsen. Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern. Ticker Security name TSLA Tesla NVDA Nvidia GME GameStop PLTR Palantir Technologies BA Boeing AAPL Apple AMD Advanced Micro Devices AMZN TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing XOM Exxon Mobil New legislation would legalize NYC bodega cats. China's financial regulator in hawkish doll tightening. New Jersey high school prank: 'Went too far'. For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, . I'm in my 80s and have 2 kids. How do I choose between them to be my executor? My mother-in-law thought the world's richest man needed Apple gift cards. How on Earth could she fall for this scam? 'I am getting very frustrated': My mother's adviser has not returned my calls. He manages $1 million. Is this normal? Israel's attack on Iran shattered stocks' early-summer calm. Here's what investors should watch out for next. Gundlach says gold is no longer for lunatics as the bond king says wait to buy the 30-year
Yahoo
37 minutes ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Ukraine warns against drop in aid due to Israel-Iran escalation
Ukraine said on Saturday it hoped the military escalation between Israel and Iran would not lead to a drop in aid to Kyiv, at a time when European support is stalling without US engagement. Israel unleashed large-scale attacks on Iran on Friday, targeting nuclear and military facilities, high-ranking generals and atomic scientists. Iran in return launched barrages of drones and missile at Israel. The escalation sparked international calls for restraint as fears of broader conflict grow. In Kyiv it also sparked anxiety about future supplies of military aid, fearing Washington might relocate more resources to beef up the defence of its close ally Israel. "We would like to see aid to Ukraine not decrease because of this," President Volodymyr Zelensky said. "Last time, this was a factor that slowed down aid to Ukraine." The Ukrainian leader warned that Europe's support was already stalling without Washington's engagement. "Europe has not yet decided for itself what it will do with Ukraine if America is not there," he said. The return to the White House of US President Donald Trump has upended the West's provision of aid to Kyiv. It has left Europe scrambling to work out how it can fill any gap in supplies if Trump decides to pull US military, financial and intelligence support. Zelensky urged the United States to "shift tone" in its dialogue with Russia, saying it was "too warm" and would not help to end the war. Trump has sought rapprochement with Moscow and held three phone calls with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin so far this year. He has stunned NATO allies with the stark change in policy from that of the previous US administration, which aborted almost all contacts with Moscow after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Israeli attacks on Iran also drove oil prices up, which Zelensky said would benefit Russia. "The attacks led to a sharp rise in oil prices. This is bad for us," he added, reiterating a call for the West to introduce price caps on Russian oil exports. The Ukrainian leader said he hoped to raise the issue of price caps at a possible meeting with Trump in the near future. He added, however, that the Israeli strikes might prove favourable for Kyiv if they lead to a drop in Iranian supplies of military equipment to Russia, which has relied heavily on Iranian-made attack drones. - More soldiers return home - Ukraine and Russia exchanged prisoners on Saturday, the fourth such swap this week, under agreements clinched in Istanbul earlier this month. Kyiv also said it had stopped Russian advances in the northeastern Sumy region. The deals to hand over killed soldiers and exchange captured ones are the only agreements to have come out of two rounds of peace talks in Istanbul. Russia has rejected calls to halt its three-year invasion. It has demanded Ukraine cede even more territory and renounce Western military support if it wants peace. Since Russia invaded in February 2022, the war has forced millions of people to flee their homes as towns and cities across eastern Ukraine have been flattened by heavy bombardments. As part of the Istanbul agreements, Kyiv also said it had received another 1,200 unidentified bodies from Russia. It said Moscow had said they were those of "Ukrainian citizens, including military personnel" Ukraine did not say whether it returned any bodies to Russia. Meanwhile, Russia intensified its offensive along the front line, especially in the northeastern Sumy region, where it seeks to establish a "buffer zone". This zone is designed, ostensibly, to protect the Russian border region of Kursk, previously partly occupied by Ukraine. Zelensky said Russia's advance on Sumy was stopped and that Kyiv's forces had managed to retake one village. He said 53,000 men Russian soldiers were involved in the Sumy operation. bur-asy/gil
Al Arabiya
42 minutes ago
- Politics
- Al Arabiya
Croatian consul and wife injured in Iran strikes on Tel Aviv
Croatia's consul in Israel and his wife were lightly injured in Iran's missile strikes on Tel Aviv, Croatia's Foreign Minister Gordan Grlic Radman said on Saturday. 'I am shaken by the news that our consul and his wife were injured in the attack on Tel Aviv. The building they live in was hit,' he said on X, formerly Twitter. 'I spoke with them and, fortunately, their injuries are minor and they are not in any life-threatening condition.' Grlic Radman added that his ministry was in constant contact with the Croatian embassy in Israel and was taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety of its staff. 'We strongly condemn attacks on civilians and diplomatic facilities. We call for immediate de-escalation and restraint,' Grlic Radman said. Israel on Friday launched an unprecedented attack on Iran, hitting scores of targets across the country, including nuclear and military sites and residential buildings. Iran said 78 people were killed and 320 wounded in the first wave of Israeli strikes. Iran retaliated with barrages of drones and missile at Israel, killing three people and wounding dozens.
New York Times
an hour ago
- Politics
- New York Times
Conference on Palestinian Statehood Postponed Amid Israel-Iran Fighting
A U.N. conference set for next week to explore the creation of a Palestinian state has been postponed because of the fighting between Israel and Iran, President Emmanuel Macron of France says. For Mr. Macron, the meeting's co-chairman alongside Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, the postponement delays a delicate decision on French recognition of a Palestinian state. In a move that infuriated Israel, the French president had indicated that he would formally do so at the conference. Speaking on Friday evening, Mr. Macron said the postponement would be brief with a new date to be set in the coming days. It was needed because leaders in the region, including Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority president, would be unable to travel because of the fighting. 'For logistical, physical, security and political reasons, they could not get to New York,' Mr. Macron said. But he added that the movement toward a two-state outcome symbolized by the conference was 'unstoppable.' That view is not shared by the United States or Israel, both of which had indicated that they would not attend the conference. The United States, in a cable a few days ago that was first reported by Reuters, urged countries to shun the talks, which it said would 'coerce Israel during a war, thereby supporting its enemies.' France, like a growing number of European states, including many that have previously supported Israel, has taken the view that the most right-wing government in Israel's history is leading the country down a destructive blind alley at devastating cost in Palestinian lives. This conviction has driven France to seek a political framework for the aftermath of the war in Gaza that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has persistently declined to outline. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
LBCI
an hour ago
- Politics
- LBCI
Pope calls for 'responsibility and reason' from Israel, Iran
Pope Leo XIV on Saturday called on Israel and Iran to show responsibility and reason as the two arch-foes clashed in their largest conflict. "The situation in Iran and Israel has seriously deteriorated at such a delicate moment. I wish to renew an appeal for responsibility and reason forcefully," the pope said in a statement. "The commitment to build a safer world free from the nuclear threat must be pursued through a respectful meeting and sincere dialogue," he said. "No one should ever threaten the existence of the other." AFP
