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AllAfrica
6 days ago
- Business
- AllAfrica
JPMorgan's Ukraine war base case scenario coming into view
JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank in the United States, has a global trends advisory organization called the Center for Geopolitics. One of its recent studies believes the Ukraine war's likely outcome is a mixed deal between Russia and Ukraine without foreign troops or security guarantees. We may be seeing that outcome develop as Steven Witkoff, President Donald Trump's special envoy, heads to Moscow. In May, the JPMorgan Chase Center published a brief study titled 'The Russia-Ukraine Endgame and the Future of Europe.' The authors, Derek Chollet, managing director and head of the Center, and Lisa Sawyer, executive director for geopolitics, served under Joe Biden at the Defense Department and, in Chollet's case, also at the State Department. Both are confirmed Atlanticists and liberal in outlook. While not explicitly stated, both served during a period when the US was providing tens of billions in aid to Ukraine – funding military assistance, government salaries, soldiers' pensions and reconstruction efforts. While the Endgame study received little attention or interest in the United States, it was reportedly taken very seriously by Ukraine's leadership. The 'scenarios' outlined in the study were discussed in a recent interview with Kiril Budanov, head of Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) under the Ministry of Defense. Budanov is regarded as one of the toughest and smartest operators in Ukraine, and his organization has reputedly carried out assassinations and bombings in Russia and elsewhere. The study 'predicted' that some sort of deal between Ukraine and Russia would be done by the end of Q2 (end of June 2025). That prediction was, of course, wrong. Even so, the study offered four 'possible outcomes' for the endgame and suggested the likelihood, expressed in percentage terms, for each of the outcomes. The four outcomes include a best case called the 'South Korea' model, which the authors gave a 15% probability for adoption. The second scenario is called 'Israel', for which the authors assign a 20% chance of success. The third outcome is called 'Georgia,' which the authors say has a 50% chance of acceptance. Finally, there is the fourth outcome, 'the worst case', which the authors called 'Belarus.' The South Korea outcome does not see Ukraine getting back any of its territory now under Russian control. However, the South Korea model anticipates the presence of a European tripwire military force 'backstopped by an American security guarantee.' In this 'best case,' Ukraine keeps 80% of its territory, leading to a stable outcome for Ukraine. One version of the South Korea outcome is that the US$300 billion in Russian frozen assets would be used for reconstruction in Ukraine. The deal resembles South Korea because the US and others serve as a tripwire for North Korea and because the South Korean economy is booming. The South Korea outcome is unlikely to be acceptable to Russia because it would keep NATO-like forces in Ukraine. It would also take Russian assets and use them to compensate Ukraine, something Russia will not accept. It also leaves the actual territorial issue unsettled and unsolved, meaning that Ukraine would not be compelled to accept the loss of territory to Russia. The scenario says nothing about Western sanctions. Finally, the war could restart on any day and would quickly become a war in Europe, not just Ukraine. The South Korea option, therefore, would be a problem not only for Russia but also for Europe and the United States, and in fact would even be worse for NATO, which requires consensus to activate Article 5 of the NATO collective defense treaty. The second outcome, dubbed 'Israel', would not include the tripwire troop presence on Ukrainian soil and is given a 20% chance of adoption by the warring parties. This option, which the authors say is 'still OK', offers nothing to Russia and acknowledges 'war would always be on [Ukraine's] doorstep.' The authors suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin would perhaps agree to the scenario if it included sanctions relief. The second outcome, therefore, won't benefit Ukraine unless it has real assurances, including on arms supplies, cash for the government and some integration into Europe's economy. It is impossible for the US to give financial guarantees without either a treaty with Ukraine and congressional approval, which would attempt to bind future congressional decisions. A treaty needs a two-thirds vote in the US Senate. While a treaty might be drafted, it is likely to face amendments and delays in execution. In this connection, it is worth noting that Israel has no written American guarantees, and aid to Israel requires annual Congressional approval. The third outcome is labeled 'Georgia', which the report's authors say has a 50% chance of adoption. This scenario rules out foreign troops and other security and financial guarantees. It would potentially include a package of reconstruction assistance, but not using frozen Russian assets for the purpose. Under the scenario, Ukraine would not be integrated into either the European Union or NATO. The authors think that if the Georgia outcome wins out, Ukraine will drift inexorably into the Russian orbit for trade and other reasons. The authors argue that 'Restrictions on military size and capacity – if part of a negotiated settlement – could prematurely stifle Ukraine's dynamic defense and tech sectors, erasing a potential engine of postwar growth.' Before the war, Ukraine had an energetic and relatively low-cost tech sector, particularly in software development. European and Israeli companies subcontracted with Ukraine's tech sector. Some of this sector has been working on military projects because of the war. However, there is no reason why the military sector is the only possible route for high-tech employment for Ukraine. Indeed, the commercial sector generally pays better and is often more dynamic than military projects. Moreover, some of the skills developed on military projects, including in regard to artificial intelligence, are highly prized these days and sought after in global markets. For the Georgia outcome to work, it would need hard agreements on territories, borders, trade and related issues, along with sanctions relief and other confidence-building measures for both sides. It would also have to include a step back by NATO, something that will be hard to swallow for the ideologically committed Europeans. The final outcome is dubbed 'Belarus', which is the report's 'worst case.' Its two main features are that the US abandons Ukraine and that Europe can't fill in on its own. The authors say that Russia would seek Ukraine's 'total capitulation' and would 'turn the country into a vassal state of Moscow.' US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff met with Vladimir Putin earlier in Kristina Kormilitsyna / TASS While Russia has a list of demands, 'total capitulation' is not one of them. Like the first 'South Korea' outcome, the report's authors assign the 'Belarus' scenario a 15% chance. As Ukraine's intelligence chief Budanov commented in his interview, there are many other scenarios than the four posited by the JPMorgan report. Yet the most interesting part of the report is its hard focus on the 'Georgia' outcome, so much so that if there is a deal struck, the deal will likely resemble that model. It is another way of saying, without saying so, that the Russians are winning and this is probably the best that can be hoped for under the circumstances. This week, Russia is expecting Witkoff's arrival. According to Trump, the Russians asked for the meeting. Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said negotiations between Russia and the US are 'yielding results.' Trump wants a ceasefire, something Russia has resisted. Will the Georgia option be on the table or something else? Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article, which originally appeared in his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.
Epoch Times
23-04-2025
- Business
- Epoch Times
JPMorgan to Expand Office Space in Downtown San Francisco
JP Morgan is overhauling and expanding its downtown San Francisco offices after committing to play a role in revitalizing the city's downtown economy, which has suffered in recent years. The bank announced in a statement on Monday that it will renovate and expand its offices, located at 560 Mission Street and One Front Street, the latter of which had a lease set to expire in June. The renovated Mission Street office, which is to be renamed JPMorganChase Center in place of the old JPMorgan Chase Building, will be increased to 280,000 square feet and become the local headquarters for the firm and function as the office for more than 1,600 employees. The additions represent an overall 65,000 square feet increase. The firm states as its goal to make the offices cutting-edge workplaces for both employees and clients, and will include prayer and maternity rooms, as well as a pantry and collaborative workspaces, state-of-the-art technology, and high-end furniture. JPMorganChase has almost 7,000 employees in the Bay Area, according to the firm's statement. 'San Francisco is a key growth market for JPMorganChase and we have been hard at work with local leaders, partners, and clients to understand how we can best deploy our resources and expertise to power continued economic growth across the city,' said Tim Berry, global head of corporate responsibility for JPMorganChase. Berry also said the firm is working with local stakeholders to revitalize San Francisco's downtown. Related Stories 4/22/2025 4/22/2025 The bank devoted $3.8 million, at least some of which in the form of loan capital and technical assistance, to support the city through its support of the Bay's downtown economy, small businesses, and efforts to attract residents and visitors back to the downtown area. 'Through our business and philanthropy investments, we are creating over $1.2 billion in economic growth for San Francisco to boost the downtown economy, support local businesses, create jobs, and bring workers, residents and visitors back to the city,' Berry said. San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie said JPMorganChase's commitment signals that the city is bouncing back after a period of stagnation that included crime and a homelessness crisis in the downtown area. 'By renaming and renovating 560 Mission as the JPMorganChase Center, they're making a clear bet on our city's future,' Lurie said. 'My administration is focused on creating the conditions for growth downtown—through safer, cleaner streets and reforms to make permitting faster. The message is getting out, and San Francisco is on the rise.' The firm's office first opened in 2002 and includes a fitness center, cafe, as well as a dining area for building tenants. The company is partnered with other companies, like Downtown Volunteer Coalition, with a goal of revitalizing the downtown area. JPMorgan positions its revitalization as part of a San Francisco-wide effort to bring downtown San Francisco back from a period of stagnation. The multinational firm cites a study by Vista Site Selection which demonstrated that JPMorganChase's employees and business in the Bay Area are worth $1.2 billion each year for San Francisco's economy. 'JPMorgan is investing again in San Francisco,' Lurie posted on social media. 'As one of the largest employers in SF, they are now investing $3.8 million into our city. This is more than just a commitment—it's a vote of confidence in San Francisco.' The news comes just months after JPMorgan announced it would vacate office space in San Francisco used by First Republic Bank, which JPMorgan purchased after it had been seized by regulators due to financial distress, resulting in the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history. The firm's plan to dump 70 percent of its space in the downtown San Francisco tower was reported by CoStar, a commercial real estate information provider. It appears those plans have changed. Downtown San Francisco's office vacancy rate was 34.7 percent in Q1 2025, an increase of 33 percent from the year prior, though there are signs of a possible recovery in the city's commercial real estate market. San Francisco's tourism industry, as well, has not recovered from the effects felt by all major cities from the COVID-19 pandemic. At the start of 2019, San Francisco had 85 percent monthly occupancy rates at its hotels. That number stands at around 67 percent in early 2025. The city is lagging behind other cities when it comes to office attendance. During the week of April 2, weekly average office attendance was 42 percent. Meanwhile, Los Angeles saw 49 percent; Austin, 63 percent; New York, 54 percent; and San Jose, 50 percent. Unemployment has been on the rise in San Francisco. In May 2022, unemployment stood at 2.3 percent. Today, that number is 3.8 percent, according to city data. Much of the job losses come from the tech industry. The finance and insurance industries combined employ approximately 55,000 people in the city.
Business Times
22-04-2025
- Business
- Business Times
JPMorgan to expand San Francisco office in boost to downtown
[SAN JOSE] JPMorgan Chase is expanding its San Francisco office and committing its marquee healthcare conference to the city for another year, offering a boost to Mayor Daniel Lurie's effort to revitalise the downtown. The bank plans to increase the leased space at its main San Francisco office by roughly 30 per cent to 280,000 square feet, making it a local headquarters for more than 1,600 employees, according to a statement on Monday (Apr 21). The building, 560 Mission St, will undergo a renovation and be renamed JPMorganChase Center. JPMorgan also will maintain 125,000 square feet of space at a building it acquired in its 2023 purchase of First Republic Bank. In addition, the company committed US$3.8 million towards philanthropic efforts to support the city's downtown economy. San Francisco has struggled more than other areas to recover from the pandemic, leaving office vacancies near record highs and hurting tax revenue. Lurie, who took office in January, has courted the city's largest business interests to spur investment in the downtown core and restore its reputation as a finance and tech hub. JPMorgan chief executive officer Jamie Dimon met with Lurie in January during the bank's annual healthcare conference, one of the city's largest conventions. The mayor has also met with Wall Street executives including Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Blackstone president Jon Gray, his calendar records show. As part of its announcement on Monday, JPMorgan said its healthcare conference will return to San Francisco in 2026. While the event draws thousands of people each year, complaints about the city's high costs and lack of space have often spurred speculation it will move to another location. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Tuesday, 12 pm Property Insights Get an exclusive analysis of real estate and property news in Singapore and beyond. Sign Up Sign Up 'San Francisco is a key growth market for JPMorgan Chase and we have been hard at work with local leaders, partners, and clients to understand how we can best deploy our resources and expertise to power continued economic growth across the city,' Tim Berry, the bank's global head of corporate responsibility, said. The downtown is key to San Francisco's economic health. The city faces a more than US$800 million two-year budget deficit as empty offices, along with sluggish revenue from business conferences and hotel occupancy taxes, weigh on its finances. There are signs the area is recovering. Artificial intelligence companies and billionaires have been scooping up office buildings, betting that the market is poised for a comeback. Last week, LendingClub announced it's buying a headquarters in San Francisco for US$74.5 million, saying historically low real estate prices are an opportunity for upside as the city rebounds. 'My administration is focused on creating the conditions for growth downtown – through safer, cleaner streets and reforms to make permitting faster,' Lurie said in JPMorgan's statement. 'The message is getting out, and San Francisco is on the rise.' BLOOMBERG
Business Journals
21-04-2025
- Business
- Business Journals
JPMorganChase expands downtown San Francisco office presence
By submitting your information you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and User Agreement . The New York bank is stepping up to revitalize downtown San Francisco, taking more office space and supporting nonprofits and small businesses downtown. JPMorganChase said Monday that it is raising its profile in downtown San Francisco, leasing additional space at 560 Mission St., maintaining some space it leases at One Front St. and providing philanthropic support to help small businesses and nonprofits focused on downtown. In a high-profile move, the bank will expand its presence at 560 Mission St., where it will lease almost 280,000 square feet, adding more than 65,000 square feet to the space it leases in the building built in 2002. JPMorganChase's (NYSE: JPM) downtown expansion plans at 560 Mission captured headlines in January. The bank is scheduled to announce its plans at a press conference featuring San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie on Monday morning. As part of the bank's expansion at 560 Mission, the building owned by CommonWealth Partners will be renamed the JPMorganChase Center, with the addition of JPMorganChase's logo on the building's ground floor exterior and other key locations. JPMorganChase will serve as the New York-based bank's local headquarters. 'JPMorganChase is showing the kind of partnership San Francisco needs,' Lurie said in a news release Monday. 'By renaming and renovating 560 Mission as the JPMorganChase Center, they're making a clear bet on our city's future. 'My administration is focused on creating the conditions for growth downtown — through safer, cleaner streets and reforms to make permitting faster,' Lurie said. 'The message is getting out, and San Francisco is on the rise.' JPMorganChase Center will house more than 1,600 of the bank's nearly 7,000 employees in the Bay Area. Tenants of 560 Mission St. also have access to the building's fitness center, cafe and dining area. Building amenities have become a big draw as more employers embrace return-to-office mandates. In early March, JPMorganChase began enforcing its policy requiring most employees to come into the office five days a week. Such policies may account for signs that return-to-office efforts are working in San Francisco, according to the latest data from 'Together we are committing to a significant investment into the property for JPMorganChase to deliver advanced standards of wellness, sustainability and vitality to support the firm's business for years to come,' Brett Munger, CEO and managing partner of Commonwealth Partners, said in the news release. JPMorganChase will also maintain 125,000 square feet that it leases at One Front St. The Paramount Group-owned building once housed First Republic Bank's operations before the bank collapsed in 2023. JPMorganChase bought First Republic from regulators in May 2023. First Republic had once leased 460,000 square feet at One Front St., according to Parmount's 2022 annual report. Chase gave up roughly 117,000 square feet of that space in the months following its First Republic purchase. Following the expiration of 244,000 square feet in July 2025, Chase was expected to have about 102,000 square feet of space at One Front represented in two leases that expire in 2029 and 2030. JPMorganChase plans renovations at both 560 Mission and One Front to enhance workspaces, create collaboration areas and update meeting rooms. The renovations will also include pantry areas, as well as prayer and maternity rooms. The New York bank estimates the renovation work will create nearly 500 local construction jobs. Of great significance to the city's hospitality sector, the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference will return to downtown San Francisco in 2026. In January, the gathering drew about 20,000 life science company executives, venture capitalists, investment bankers and angel investors into San Francisco's Union Square in one of the industry's biggest fundraising meet-and-greet sessions of the year. The bank also plans to open seven Bay Area J.P. Morgan Financial Centers, which were inspired by lessons learned in acquiring First Republic Bank to enhance services for wealthy clients. JPMorganChase is also providing $3.8 million in new philanthropic support for the downtown San Francisco economy with the aim of helping small businesses grow and attract residents and visitors to downtown streets. The fresh capital will help provide small businesses with loans to technical assistance to help them establish tenancy in vacant storefronts and reduce costs for them to open and expand. The bank's new philanthropic assistance will support Main Street Launch's Downtown San Francisco Vibrancy Loan Fund, SF New Deal's Small Business Storefront Accelerator and the San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association. The bank's new philanthropic support will also help the Chinatown Community Development Center's efforts to preserve and develop affordable housing and support the recovery of small businesses in San Francisco's Chinatown neighborhood. JPMorganChase is also an executive member of AdvanceSF and a founding member of the Partnership for SF. 'We've developed a firmwide strategy to support the city's downtown revitalization,' Tim Berry, global head of corporate responsibility for JPMorganChase, said in the news release. 'Through our business and philanthropy investments, we are creating over $1.2 billion in economic growth for San Francisco to boost the downtown economy, support local businesses, create jobs and bring workers, residents and visitors back to the city.' Largest Employers in San Francisco Employees out of San Francisco office(s) Rank Prior Rank Name/Prior rank 1 1 City and County of San Francisco 2 2 University of California 3 3 San Francisco Unified School District View this list
