Latest news with #JamesCarville
Daily Mail
9 hours ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
Bill Clinton blasted for claiming he 'never saw' Biden's steep mental decline insisting he was in 'good shape'
Former President Bill Clinton said he never thought Joe Biden was unfit to seek a second term – and that the former president known for occasionally mangling phrases and botching names was always 'on top of his brief.' Clinton, 78, vouched for his fellow Democratic former president as journalists Alex Thompson and Jake Tapper promote their new book 'Original Sin: President Biden's Decline, Its Cover-Up, and His Disastrous Choice to Run Again', which weaves together efforts by White House staff to insulate the president amid his public mental and physical stumbles. 'I thought he was a good president. The only concern I thought he had to deal wit was, could anybody do that job until they were 86 and we've had several long talks. I had never seen him and walked away thinking he can't do this anymore,' Clinton said of Biden, 82. 'He was always on top of his brief,' Clinton told CBS Sunday Morning anchor Tracy Smith. Clinton was 46 when he became the third-youngest person elected president. Biden retired as the oldest president and would have been 86 when he left office. As it turns out, Bill and Hillary Clinton were among the first to throw their support to Vice President Kamala Harris after Biden dropped out of the race under pressure following his debate disaster. Clinton, whose longtime advisor James Carville was among those calling for Biden to go to avoid a political bloodbath after the debate, said he didn't recognize the Biden as depicted in the book – which he has chosen not to read. 'I didn't know anything about any of this, and I haven't read the book. I saw President Biden not very long ago, and I thought he was in good shape,' Clinton said. Clinton bit his lower lip as he speculated: 'Some people are trying to use this as a way to blame him for the fact that Trump was re elected.' He said the book 'didn't register with me, because I never saw him that way,' speaking of Biden. When Smith asked point blank why he didn't read the book, Clinton replied: 'I didn't want to, because he's not president anymore, and I think he did a good job. And I think we are facing challenges today without our president in our history.' Clinton, his voice sounding raspy, spoke about his own recent health scare. 'Basically, kind of lost my balance, and I knew I was sick, and I went to the hospital and checked, and they said I was severely dehydrated,' he said. 'When you're older, you have to be more careful to stay hydrated,' he added, after contending with heart problems after leaving office. He spoke following a claim that Biden sometimes got lost in his own coat closet, while President Trump promoted a bizarre theory that Biden had died and been replaced by clones in just his latest online attack on his rival. Trump ally Florida Rep. Byron Donalds accused Clinton of 'lying' in his new comments. 'Bill Clinton's lying. Let's just be honest. He's lying, frankly, again. Joe Biden was not capable of doing the job. We all know this,' he told Stuart Varney on Fox Business. 'It's not just his mental capabilities; in my view, it's also his physical capabilities. He wasn't able to hold long extended meetings with members of Congress, and it's Democrat members of Congress, Republican members of Congress, Republican leadership. He wasn't able to do it. They would send him out there every now and again to do a speech or to speak to the press, and if the press started asking too many questions, his staff would come in and break it up,' he said. Clinton also said courts are stopping Trump from carrying out acts he said exceeded presidential authority. Asked what's stopping Trump, he responded, 'The courts, including a lot of judges he appointed.' Both Clinton and and Trump survived impeachment efforts. 'And you know, he is looking for ways to basically defy all these court orders, but I think he'll have a hard time doing that, and if he does, I think it will hurt him in America,' Clinton said.
Vox
16 hours ago
- Business
- Vox
The big, bad bond market could derail Trump's big, beautiful bill
is a senior correspondent and head writer for Vox's Future Perfect section and has worked at Vox since 2014. He is particularly interested in global health and pandemic prevention, anti-poverty efforts, economic policy and theory, and conflicts about the right way to do philanthropy. To pass a law in the United States, you need to jump through a lot of hurdles. A bill has to first clear a committee in the House or Senate. (In the case of Republicans' tax legislation this year, its components had to clear 11 different committees.) The House Rules Committee has to agree for it to come to the floor for a vote. It has to pass that vote. In the Senate, it has to get 60 votes to beat a potential filibuster, or else obey a set of byzantine rules allowing it to pass with a simple majority. But another entity gets a vote, an entity not mentioned in the Constitution or in congressional rules or even physically located in Washington, DC. That entity is the bond market, and right now, it is very pissed. Currently, the US makes up for any budget deficits it incurs by issuing bonds of various durations to cover the difference. It auctions those bonds — essentially IOUs issued by the Treasury Department — on the open market, where investors (banks, hedge funds, foreign central banks, pension funds, etc.) can bid on them. To get them to bid, the US has to pay interest on the bond. And when the US borrows a lot, and especially if its fiscal policy indicates that the country may reach a point where it can't pay back what it owes, investors will demand to receive more interest to compensate for the risk of default. That means the US has to pay more every year to service its past debt, and those payments in turn become future debt. If the interest they demand is high enough, the result can be an economic downturn, an upward debt spiral, or both. While politicians pay attention to all kinds of economic indicators, from the unemployment rate to the stock market, the bond market is a different and more powerful animal. The most famous quote about the bond market's power comes from former Bill Clinton adviser James Carville: 'I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.' History is littered with cases of governments that were forced to abandon policies — or that even fell from power — because the bond market revolted. Just a few years ago in the UK, a mass sell-off by currency and bond traders forced the Tory government to abandon its plans for a massive deficit-ballooning tax cut and axe Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng, before then-Prime Minister Liz Truss herself was forced to resign after just 45 days in office. Banks like Citigroup were openly declaring that unless the UK got a different prime minister, the markets would continue to punish it. That is power. Now, Congress is weighing a reconciliation bill that would increase the deficit by at least $3 trillion over 10 years, and possibly closer to $5 trillion if some of its temporary components become permanent, as seems likely. This is a big increase in America's already substantial debt burden and markets are responding accordingly. Interest rates are heading higher, especially once you adjust for inflation. Countries once infamous for fiscal mismanagement — Greece, Spain, even Italy — can now borrow more cheaply than the United States can. The US is not the UK; the bond market cannot depose a president the way it can a prime minister, simply because prime ministers are far easier to swap out. But that doesn't mean that the bond market is powerless over US policy. It has the ability to make this tax bill much, much more costly for the US government and economy, and that ability could be decisive in shaping where the legislation goes from here. The bond market is mad about the debt The US issues a lot of different kinds of debt, but the kind you should pay closest attention to are 10-year bonds. These reflect the market's views on the medium- to long-run trajectory of the government and economy, whereas 30-day or six-month bonds are much shorter-run indicators. The interest rate that's most informative about government policy and long-run prospects is the 'real' rate, adjusted for inflation. If inflation is 4 percent, investors will probably add about 4 percentage points to the real interest rate to make sure their investment doesn't erode in value. The real rate thus reflects how much they expect to earn for essentially lending money to the US government in addition to just keeping up with overall prices. Here's the 10-year, adjusting for inflation, since the start of President Donald Trump's first term: Interest rates have been rising since 2022 or so. FRED In the aftermath of Covid, rates actually went negative after taking inflation into account. This is what's sometimes called the 'flight to safety': In times of crisis, investors often move away from risky assets like stocks and toward reliable, predictable ones, like US government bonds. That drives interest rates down, sometimes even below inflation. But since 2023 or so, rates have been much higher. There's a saying, popularized by economist Scott Sumner, that one should 'never reason from a price change': Changes in the Treasury interest rate (or the price of borrowing) could be from any number of factors, so it's too simplistic to look at what happened and say 'investors decided the US government became a riskier bet.' The Logoff The email you need to stay informed about Trump — without letting the news take over your life, from senior editor Patrick Reis. Email (required) Sign Up By submitting your email, you agree to our Terms and Privacy Notice . This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. That said, when Fed economists analyzed the spike that occurred in 2023, they concluded the spike in rates was indeed due to investors reacting to changing economic conditions: The US was issuing more debt, the Federal Reserve was tightening to try to control inflation, and future economic growth in the US was looking sluggish. Other observers in the bond market have been sounding alarms, mostly citing excessive US borrowing. In 2023, Fitch, one of the three big credit rating agencies that issues risk evaluations of bonds, downgraded US debt, which previously had a perfect AAA rating. On May 16 of this year, Moody's, another of the three, followed suit, amid tax cut negotiations in Congress. Standard & Poor's, the third rater, had already downgraded the US after the 2011 debt ceiling fight, meaning there now isn't a single rating agency giving US debt top marks. As the 2023 downgrade indicates, this change isn't entirely due to Trump. Covid did a number on the US debt picture, with trillions of dollars in relief measures passed and implemented, and many months of lower revenues due to the 2020 recession. But in January, as Trump prepared to return to the White House, bond analysts were already forecasting higher rates, noting his penchant for tax cuts and lack of seriousness about deficits. On May 20, amid the tax fight in Congress, a batch of 20-year government bonds had trouble selling at auction, sending rates flying higher still. The bond market, it is fair to say, is not pleased with the direction this administration is going. High interest rates could hurt…real bad The nominal (that is, not adjusted for inflation) 10-year Treasury rate has grown from lows of around 3.6 percent in September to above 4.4 percent now. That, on its own, might not sound like a lot: only a 0.8-point increase? But if you apply even a small increase in interest costs to the tens of trillions of dollars in debt the US government has outstanding, you get a very big number. Case in point: The Congressional Budget Office, as it evaluates Trump and Republicans' tax and spending proposals, is assuming 10-year interest rates of 4.1 percent this year, falling to 3.8 percent over time. What if, instead, rates stayed higher — at 4.4 percent, say? Even that modest-sounding change would cost the US government $1.8 trillion over the next decade, per the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; for scale, that's about what Trump's more extreme tariff plans are projected to bring in. How persistently high interest rates would affect federal interest payments over the next 10 years. Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget A bond market reaction that persistently pushes up rates like this could turn a 'merely' $3.1 trillion bill into a $5 trillion bill, raising the price tag by nearly 60 percent, without a single additional dollar in tax cuts or spending. By 2035, the US would be spending $2.1 trillion a year on interest, more than on defense or on Social Security, or on Medicare — some of the biggest portions of the federal budget. That constrains politicians in both parties quite severely. It makes it harder for Republicans to pass the tax cuts they want, because they now are meaningfully more expensive. Same goes for any deficit-financed spending that Democrats may want. Some politicians might say, 'Who cares? Voters care more about tax cuts than the deficit. Why should it matter to me if some number labeled 'deficit' goes up?' It may be true that voters can't easily parse the difference between a $1 and $2 trillion deficit. But they can definitely tell when things in their daily lives get more expensive, and higher interest costs will make everything more expensive. Thirty-year mortgage interest rates move in almost perfect tandem with long-term government bonds, as this chart from the Bipartisan Policy Center shows: Mortgage interest rates generally track movements in the interest rate on US government bonds. Bipartisan Policy Center This makes sense, if you think about it. When a bank issues a mortgage (or buys one from an issuer), it's lending money on a long-term basis in exchange for regular interest payments. That's exactly what an investor does when they buy a long-term government bond. Because mortgage borrowers (that is, homeowners) are typically considered riskier than the US government, they pay somewhat higher rates, but the two rates move together. If the US government starts paying more interest, mortgage borrowers will have to pay more interest too, so that banks lend to them rather than the federal government. That means that if the bond market sends rates on US debt higher, it's not just more expensive for the government; it's more expensive for anyone who borrows. That means homeowners with mortgages, anyone with credit card debt, anyone with a car loan, anyone taking a student loan, and, perhaps most importantly, businesses taking out loans to build factories or invest in research. Good luck getting a US manufacturing renaissance going with persistently high interest rates driven by high deficits. The odds are still high that Congress passes some kind of deficit-exploding tax bill. The House passed its version by a single vote, and while some Republican senators have voiced complaints, Republicans' 53-vote majority there means they can afford a few defectors and still pass something. Many of the Trump tax cuts passed in 2017 are set to expire next year, and the political urge to avoid a sudden spike in taxes will probably overwhelm whatever pressure the bond market brings to bear. The bond market is powerful, but Republican hatred of taxes may be more powerful. But important Republican policymakers are paying attention. House Budget committee chair Jodey Arrington (R-TX) hinted to Politico's Victoria Guida that he thinks the markets may force more budget cuts than his party is inclined to support, saying, 'If the bond markets don't think we're serious, I'm not sure it will matter what we do, because they're going to dictate the terms.' And senators needed to get the package to the president's desk are watching too. 'Have you been watching what the bond markets are doing in relation to the one big, beautiful bill?' Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) asked. 'They're not thinking it's a very big, beautiful bill.'
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Poll: How tariffs are tanking Trump's approval rating
In 1992, Democratic political strategist James Carville famously distilled the presidential election down to one blunt catchphrase: 'It's the economy, stupid.' The results of a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll suggest that, more than three decades later, the start of President Trump's second term could be summed up the same way — particularly when it comes to tariffs and trade. The survey of 1,560 U.S. adults was conducted from May 22 to May 27, following months of global economic upheaval — all of it triggered by Trump. On-again off-again tariffs as high as 145%. Retaliatory measures from major allies and trading partners. Headlines about trade wars. Market nosedives. Market recoveries. Legal confusion. Stress among small-business owners. And rising prices for ordinary American consumers. At the same time, Trump's approval rating has steadily deteriorated. Before last November's election, a majority of Americans (51%) told Yahoo News and YouGov that they approved of the way Trump had handled his first term in office; fewer (43%) said they disapproved. But when asked again in March how they felt about the president's performance since returning to office, those numbers had flipped: more respondents now said they disapproved (50%) than said they approved (44%) of the job Trump had done during the first two months of his second term. A few weeks later, in April, the gap between Trump's disapproval (53%) and approval (42%) ratings had grown even wider (to 11 percentage points). And the latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that gap is continuing to expand. Today only 41% of Americans approve of Trump's job performance, while 54% disapprove, putting him 13 points underwater. Those are some of the president's worst numbers since the latter stages of his first term. Digging deeper, more Americans disapprove than approve of how Trump is handling each major issue included in the survey: immigration (by a two-point margin); government spending (by an eight-point margin); the war between Russia and Ukraine (by an eight-point margin); diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI (by a nine-point margin); and democracy (by a 13-point margin). But the biggest gaps between Trump's approval and disapproval ratings emerge when Americans are asked about economic issues. According to the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, the president is now 19 points underwater on the economy in general (37% approve to 56% disapprove); 22 points underwater on trade and tariffs (35% approve to 57% disapprove); and 27 points underwater on the cost of living (32% approve to 59% disapprove). To put those numbers in perspective, Trump's average approval rating on the economy was 49% in the middle of 2020 — at the height of the COVID-19 crash. His average disapproval rating was 45%. Similarly, a full 57% of Americans think Trump has 'gone too far 'in "raising tariffs on imported goods' — significantly more than the share who think he's gone too far in 'cutting the federal workforce" (51%), 'arresting and deporting immigrants' (49%) or "investigating his political opponents" (45%). Just 4% of Americans say Trump's approach to raising tariffs has 'not gone far enough.' As a result, 40% of U.S. adults now rate the economy as 'poor' — a five-point increase since April. Among independents, that same number has jumped a full 10 points — from 35% to 45% — over the last month. All told, nearly three quarters of Americans (72%) now say the economy is either fair or poor. Just 25% consider it excellent or good. Earlier this month, House Republicans passed Trump's 'one big, beautiful bill' — a package of tax cuts, social safety net reductions and increased border and military spending meant to deliver the bulk of his legislative agenda. But assuming that some version of the bill survives the Senate — a big if at this point — it is unlikely to reverse the president's economic standing. In the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, half of respondents were asked whether they 'approve or disapprove of the federal budget just passed by the U.S. House of Representatives' — with no additional information provided. Twenty-eight percent said they approved, 41% said they disapproved and 31% said they weren't sure. That's hardly a ringing endorsement. But what happens when Americans learn more about Trump's budget bill? To test this dynamic, the other half of respondents read a detailed description of the legislation before answering the same question: The U.S. House of Representatives just passed a federal budget that extends and expands the 2017 tax cuts for Americans of all incomes, at a cost of $3.8 trillion, while partially paying for those cuts by reducing Medicaid and food stamp benefits for lower-income Americans and ending some clean energy programs. The House budget also increases military and border spending and raises the debt ceiling from $36 trillion to $40 trillion. Among this second, more informed group of respondents, approval of Trump's budget bill stayed roughly the same (31%). But uncertainty fell by 17 points (to 14%) — and disapproval shot up by nearly as much (to 55%). __________________ The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,560 U.S. adults interviewed online from May 22 to May 27, 2025. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 election turnout and presidential vote, party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Party identification is weighted to the estimated distribution at the time of the election (31% Democratic, 32% Republican). Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.9%.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Poll: How tariffs are tanking Trump's approval rating
In 1992, Democratic political strategist James Carville famously distilled the presidential election down to one blunt catchphrase: 'It's the economy, stupid.' The results of a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll suggest that, more than three decades later, the start of President Trump's second term could be summed up the same way — particularly when it comes to tariffs and trade. The survey of 1,560 U.S. adults was conducted from May 22 to May 27, following months of global economic upheaval — all of it triggered by Trump. On-again off-again tariffs as high as 145%. Retaliatory measures from major allies and trading partners. Headlines about trade wars. Market nosedives. Market recoveries. Legal confusion. Stress among small-business owners. And rising prices for ordinary American consumers. At the same time, Trump's approval rating has steadily deteriorated. Before last November's election, a majority of Americans (51%) told Yahoo News and YouGov that they approved of the way Trump had handled his first term in office; fewer (43%) said they disapproved. But when asked again in March how they felt about the president's performance since returning to office, those numbers had flipped: more respondents now said they disapproved (50%) than said they approved (44%) of the job Trump had done during the first two months of his second term. A few weeks later, in April, the gap between Trump's disapproval (53%) and approval (42%) ratings had grown even wider (to 11 percentage points). And the latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that gap is continuing to expand. Today only 41% of Americans approve of Trump's job performance, while 54% disapprove, putting him 13 points underwater. Those are some of the president's worst numbers since the latter stages of his first term. Digging deeper, more Americans disapprove than approve of how Trump is handling each major issue included in the survey: immigration (by a two-point margin); government spending (by an eight-point margin); the war between Russia and Ukraine (by an eight-point margin); diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI (by a nine-point margin); and democracy (by a 13-point margin). But the biggest gaps between Trump's approval and disapproval ratings emerge when Americans are asked about economic issues. According to the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, the president is now 19 points underwater on the economy in general (37% approve to 56% disapprove); 22 points underwater on trade and tariffs (35% approve to 57% disapprove); and 27 points underwater on the cost of living (32% approve to 59% disapprove). To put those numbers in perspective, Trump's average approval rating on the economy was 49% in the middle of 2020 — at the height of the COVID-19 crash. His average disapproval rating was 45%. Similarly, a full 57% of Americans think Trump has 'gone too far 'in "raising tariffs on imported goods' — significantly more than the share who think he's gone too far in 'cutting the federal workforce" (51%), 'arresting and deporting immigrants' (49%) or "investigating his political opponents" (45%). Just 4% of Americans say Trump's approach to raising tariffs has 'not gone far enough.' As a result, 40% of U.S. adults now rate the economy as 'poor' — a five-point increase since April. Among independents, that same number has jumped a full 10 points — from 35% to 45% — over the last month. All told, nearly three quarters of Americans (72%) now say the economy is either fair or poor. Just 25% consider it excellent or good. Earlier this month, House Republicans passed Trump's 'one big, beautiful bill' — a package of tax cuts, social safety net reductions and increased border and military spending meant to deliver the bulk of his legislative agenda. But assuming that some version of the bill survives the Senate — a big if at this point — it is unlikely to reverse the president's economic standing. In the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, half of respondents were asked whether they 'approve or disapprove of the federal budget just passed by the U.S. House of Representatives' — with no additional information provided. Twenty-eight percent said they approved, 41% said they disapproved and 31% said they weren't sure. That's hardly a ringing endorsement. But what happens when Americans learn more about Trump's budget bill? To test this dynamic, the other half of respondents read a detailed description of the legislation before answering the same question: The U.S. House of Representatives just passed a federal budget that extends and expands the 2017 tax cuts for Americans of all incomes, at a cost of $3.8 trillion, while partially paying for those cuts by reducing Medicaid and food stamp benefits for lower-income Americans and ending some clean energy programs. The House budget also increases military and border spending and raises the debt ceiling from $36 trillion to $40 trillion. Among this second, more informed group of respondents, approval of Trump's budget bill stayed roughly the same (31%). But uncertainty fell by 17 points (to 14%) — and disapproval shot up by nearly as much (to 55%). __________________ The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,560 U.S. adults interviewed online from May 22 to May 27, 2025. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 election turnout and presidential vote, party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Party identification is weighted to the estimated distribution at the time of the election (31% Democratic, 32% Republican). Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.9%.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Poll: How tariffs are tanking Trump's approval rating
In 1992, Democratic political strategist James Carville famously distilled the presidential election down to one blunt catchphrase: 'It's the economy, stupid.' The results of a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll suggest that, more than three decades later, the start of President Trump's second term could be summed up the same way — particularly when it comes to tariffs and trade. The survey of 1,560 U.S. adults was conducted from May 22 to May 27, following months of global economic upheaval — all of it triggered by Trump. On-again off-again tariffs as high as 145%. Retaliatory measures from major allies and trading partners. Headlines about trade wars. Market nosedives. Market recoveries. Legal confusion. Stress among small-business owners. And rising prices for ordinary American consumers. At the same time, Trump's approval rating has steadily deteriorated. Before last November's election, a majority of Americans (51%) told Yahoo News and YouGov that they approved of the way Trump had handled his first term in office; fewer (43%) said they disapproved. But when asked again in March how they felt about the president's performance since returning to office, those numbers had flipped: more respondents now said they disapproved (50%) than said they approved (44%) of the job Trump had done during the first two months of his second term. A few weeks later, in April, the gap between Trump's disapproval (53%) and approval (42%) ratings had grown even wider (to 11 percentage points). And the latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that gap is continuing to expand. Today only 41% of Americans approve of Trump's job performance, while 54% disapprove, putting him 13 points underwater. Those are some of the president's worst numbers since the latter stages of his first term. Digging deeper, more Americans disapprove than approve of how Trump is handling each major issue included in the survey: immigration (by a two-point margin); government spending (by an eight-point margin); the war between Russia and Ukraine (by an eight-point margin); diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI (by a nine-point margin); and democracy (by a 13-point margin). But the biggest gaps between Trump's approval and disapproval ratings emerge when Americans are asked about economic issues. According to the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, the president is now 19 points underwater on the economy in general (37% approve to 56% disapprove); 22 points underwater on trade and tariffs (35% approve to 57% disapprove); and 27 points underwater on the cost of living (32% approve to 59% disapprove). To put those numbers in perspective, Trump's average approval rating on the economy was 49% in the middle of 2020 — at the height of the COVID-19 crash. His average disapproval rating was 45%. Similarly, a full 57% of Americans think Trump has 'gone too far 'in "raising tariffs on imported goods' — significantly more than the share who think he's gone too far in 'cutting the federal workforce" (51%), 'arresting and deporting immigrants' (49%) or "investigating his political opponents" (45%). Just 4% of Americans say Trump's approach to raising tariffs has 'not gone far enough.' As a result, 40% of U.S. adults now rate the economy as 'poor' — a five-point increase since April. Among independents, that same number has jumped a full 10 points — from 35% to 45% — over the last month. All told, nearly three quarters of Americans (72%) now say the economy is either fair or poor. Just 25% consider it excellent or good. Earlier this month, House Republicans passed Trump's 'one big, beautiful bill' — a package of tax cuts, social safety net reductions and increased border and military spending meant to deliver the bulk of his legislative agenda. But assuming that some version of the bill survives the Senate — a big if at this point — it is unlikely to reverse the president's economic standing. In the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, half of respondents were asked whether they 'approve or disapprove of the federal budget just passed by the U.S. House of Representatives' — with no additional information provided. Twenty-eight percent said they approved, 41% said they disapproved and 31% said they weren't sure — hardly a ringing endorsement. Meanwhile, the other half of respondents read the following description of the bill before answering the same question: The U.S. House of Representatives just passed a federal budget that extends and expands the 2017 tax cuts for Americans of all incomes, at a cost of $3.8 trillion, while partially paying for those cuts by reducing Medicaid and food stamp benefits for lower-income Americans and ending some clean energy programs. The House budget also increases military and border spending and raises the debt ceiling from $36 trillion to $40 trillion. Among this second, more informed group of respondents, approval of Trump's budget bill stayed roughly the same (31%). But uncertainty fell by 17 points (to 14%) — and disapproval shot up by nearly as much (to 55%). __________________ The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,560 U.S. adults interviewed online from May 22 to May 27, 2025. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 election turnout and presidential vote, party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Party identification is weighted to the estimated distribution at the time of the election (31% Democratic, 32% Republican). Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.9%.
