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Economic Times
14-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
WPI inflation falls to a 20-month low of -0.1% in June
ANI Representational image India's wholesale inflation fell to a 20-month low of -0.1% year-on-year in June from 0.4% in May due to decline in food and fuel prices and a moderation in manufactured goods costs, official data released Monday showed. Economists anticipate Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation to remain in negative territory in July, given the ongoing year-on-year deflation in food and crude oil prices. 'Negative rate of inflation in June 2025 is primarily due to decrease in prices of food articles, mineral oils, manufacture of basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas etc,' said the commerce ministry in a a quarterly basis, average wholesale inflation dropped to a five-quarter low of 0.4% in Q1FY26. 'With the WPI inflation averaging at just 0.4% in Q1FY26 vis-à-vis 2.4% in Q4FY25, we expect the nominal GDP growth to decelerate quite sharply between these quarters,' said Rahul Agrawal, senior economist at ICRA. Official gross domestic product (GDP) data for the June quarter will be released in Jasrai, associate director at India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), said, 'The muted input price growth in the economy would provide support to the corporates in maintaining their margins at a time when industrial output growth has faced deceleration on account of weather vagaries.'Ind-Ra expects wholesale inflation to stay below 0.5% in Q2FY26, amid muted inflation in food and core inflation, which accounts for around one-fourth of the WPI weight, fell to a two-year low of -0.3% in June from 1.7% in contributors to food deflation included onion (-33.5%), potato (-32.7%), vegetables (-22.7%), and pulses (-14.1%). Fruit prices eased to 1.6% year-on-year in June compared to 10.2% in May.'The drop in prices of pulses was due to a robust kharif output,' said in manufactured products, which account for 64.23% weight in the WPI, eased slightly to 1.97% in June from 2.04% in May. Within this category, vegetable & animal oils and fats recorded the highest inflation at 23.1%, followed by food products (7%), and tobacco products (2.8%).Inflation in primary articles and fuel & power contracted by 3.4% and 2.7%, respectively.'The fuel & power and crude petroleum and natural gas prices declined during June due to benign global commodity prices,' said Jasrai.
Time of India
14-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
WPI inflation falls to a 20-month low of -0.1% in June
India's wholesale inflation fell to a 20-month low of -0.1% year-on-year in June from 0.4% in May due to decline in food and fuel prices and a moderation in manufactured goods costs , official data released Monday showed. Economists anticipate Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation to remain in negative territory in July, given the ongoing year-on-year deflation in food and crude oil prices. 'Negative rate of inflation in June 2025 is primarily due to decrease in prices of food articles, mineral oils, manufacture of basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas etc,' said the commerce ministry in a statement. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Villas For Sale in Dubai Might Surprise You Dubai villas | search ads Get Deals Undo On a quarterly basis, average wholesale inflation dropped to a five-quarter low of 0.4% in Q1FY26. 'With the WPI inflation averaging at just 0.4% in Q1FY26 vis-à-vis 2.4% in Q4FY25, we expect the nominal GDP growth to decelerate quite sharply between these quarters,' said Rahul Agrawal, senior economist at ICRA . Live Events Official gross domestic product (GDP) data for the June quarter will be released in August. Paras Jasrai, associate director at India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), said, 'The muted input price growth in the economy would provide support to the corporates in maintaining their margins at a time when industrial output growth has faced deceleration on account of weather vagaries.' Ind-Ra expects wholesale inflation to stay below 0.5% in Q2FY26, amid muted inflation in food and core items. Food inflation, which accounts for around one-fourth of the WPI weight, fell to a two-year low of -0.3% in June from 1.7% in May. Major contributors to food deflation included onion (-33.5%), potato (-32.7%), vegetables (-22.7%), and pulses (-14.1%). Fruit prices eased to 1.6% year-on-year in June compared to 10.2% in May. 'The drop in prices of pulses was due to a robust kharif output,' said Jasrai. Inflation in manufactured products, which account for 64.23% weight in the WPI, eased slightly to 1.97% in June from 2.04% in May. Within this category, vegetable & animal oils and fats recorded the highest inflation at 23.1%, followed by food products (7%), and tobacco products (2.8%). Inflation in primary articles and fuel & power contracted by 3.4% and 2.7%, respectively. 'The fuel & power and crude petroleum and natural gas prices declined during June due to benign global commodity prices,' said Jasrai.
Indian Express
30-06-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
May factory output growth drops to 9-month low as rains hit power demand
Growth in India's factory output fell to a nine-month low in May as cooler temperatures due to rains drove down demand for electricity, with mining output also affected. According to data released on Monday by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), industrial growth as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) declined to 1.2 per cent in May, down from 2.6 per cent in April and 6.3 per cent in May 2024. Production of electricity was down 5.8 per cent year-on-year in May – the first time it was down on a year-on-year basis since August 2024. In fact, the year-on-year fall in electricity generation in May was the most since June 2020, when much of the country had come to a halt due to the coronavirus pandemic. The decline in electricity output in May can be attributed to the early onset of the southwest monsoon, which made landfall on May 24, the earliest it has done so since 2009. Along with electricity, mining output also declined in May, albeit by a marginal 0.1 per cent. In April, it had declined by 0.2 per cent. Rains affect mining activities. Meanwhile, manufacturing sector output – which makes up more than three-fourth of the IIP – rose by 2.6 per cent year-on-year, down from 3.1 per cent in April and 5.1 per cent in May 2024. Consumer weakness According to the latest statistics ministry data, production of consumer goods was lower in May compared to a year ago. While output of non-durable goods fell 2.4 per cent – down for the fifth time in six months – that of durable goods was 0.7 per cent lower. This is the first time in one-and-a-half years that production of consumer durable goods has fallen on a year-on-year basis. According to Paras Jasrai, Associate Director and Economist at India Ratings & Research, the contraction in non-durable goods' output in May 'points to weak goods consumption by households'. Output of primary goods also fell in May and was down 1.9 per cent after having posted a 0.2 per cent fall in April. However, growth in capital goods output was in the double-digit territory in May for the second month in a row, following up a 14 per cent growth in April with a 14.1 per cent increase, indicating 'sustained progression in investment activity in the economy', Jasrai said. According to data on the government's finances, also released on Monday, the Centre's capital expenditure in May was up 39 per cent year-on-year at Rs 61,564 crore. For April-May, the Indian government's capex was up 54 per cent from last year at Rs 2.21 lakh crore. Production of intermediate and infrastructure goods was up 3.5 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively. In April, output of intermediate goods had increased by 3.5 per cent, while that of infrastructure goods had risen 4.7 per cent. 'Overall, use-based data and manufacturing IP sectoral data shows capital-intensive sectors (metals, machinery, auto, construction) continue to outperform, while consumer durables and non-durables output remains subdued, pointing towards limited impulses from private consumption,' Barclays economists Aastha Gudwani and Amruta Ghare said in a note. A decline in industrial growth in May was expected due to the early rains, with commerce ministry data released on June 20 showing core sector output – which accounts for 40 per cent of the IIP – had increased by a mere 0.7 per cent in May, the least in nine months. Core sector data – which includes sectors such as coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement, and electricity – is seen as a leading indicator of industrial activity in the country. For the first two months of 2025-26, IIP growth clocked in at 1.8 per cent, less than a third of the 5.7 per cent increase posted in April-May 2024. Looking ahead, industrial growth is seen subdued, with daily data showing power generated in June was down 2.1 per cent as of June 29. 'This may keep the factory output growth around 1.5% yoy (year-on-year) in June 2025, in Ind-Ra's view,' Jasrai said. IIP data for June will be released on July 28. Siddharth Upasani is a Deputy Associate Editor with The Indian Express. He reports primarily on data and the economy, looking for trends and changes in the former which paint a picture of the latter. Before The Indian Express, he worked at Moneycontrol and financial newswire Informist (previously called Cogencis). Outside of work, sports, fantasy football, and graphic novels keep him busy. ... Read More
Indian Express
12-06-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
Fall in food prices pulls down May CPI inflation to 2.82%, lowest since Feb 2019
A fall in prices of fruits, pulses, and cereals helped lower India's headline retail inflation rate to a 75-month low of 2.82 per cent in May 2025, acording to data released on Thursday by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), possibly providing some more easing room to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). At 2.82 per cent, the latest inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was somewhat lower than economists' expectations of around 3 per cent. CPI inflation stood at 3.16 per cent in April 2025 and 4.80 per cent in May 2024. The last time retail inflation was lower was in February 2019, when it stood at 2.57 per cent. Per MoSPI data, food inflation as measured by the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) almost halved to a 43-month low of 0.99 per cent last month from 1.78 per cent in April 2025 as fruit prices declined by 2 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) while those of pulses were down 1.7 per cent. Cereals also helped to bring down the overall food inflation in May 2025, with prices down 0.6 per cent compared to the previous month. Prices of vegetables, meanwhile, inched up slightly last month from April 2025. However, in year-on-year (y-o-y) terms, retail prices of vegetables were down 13.7 per cent — the sharpest pace of decline since December 2022, according to Paras Jasrai, associate director and economist at India Ratings & Research. Proteins became more expensive on a sequential basis in May 2025. While the price of meat and fish was up 1.5 per cent m-o-m, egg prices rose 2.5 per cent and milk turned 0.7 per cent more expensive in May. Core inflation — which excludes items whose prices are volatile such as food and fuel and is seen as an indicator of underlying demand conditions — inched up to around 4.2 per cent, according to calculations done by The Indian Express. The steady rise in core inflation over the last year-and-a-half or so is suggestive of 'steady demand conditions' in the economy, said Jasrai of India Ratings. In terms of the regional break-up, urban inflation eased to 3.07 per cent in May 2025 from 3.36 per cent the previous month, while rural CPI inflation declined to 2.59 per cent from 2.92 per cent. Inflation in May 2025 was highest in Kerala at 6.46 per cent, while it was lowest in Telangana, at 0.55 per cent. According to Sujan Hajra, chief economist at Anand Rathi Group, the downward trend in CPI inflation is expected to continue through October 2025, with averaging for FY26 likely to undershoot the RBI's latest forecast of 3.7 per cent. ICRA Chief Economist, Aditi Nayar, expects retail inflation to decline further to around 2.5 per cent in June 2025 and average 3.5 per cent in FY26. 'Looking ahead, on a y-o-y (year-on-year) basis, as many as 17 of the 22 food items for which the daily data is released, recorded a lower y-o-y inflation in June 2025 (until June 10, 2025) vis-à-vis May 2025, barring most edible oils and tea,' Nayar said. 'Moreover, the GoI (Government of India) has reduced the import duty on edible oils effective end-May 2025, which would lead to a softening in prices going forward, thereby auguring well for the oils and fats inflation readings through the fiscal, which would also be suppressed by a high base.' Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CareEdge, said that while the India Meteorological Department's forecast of an above-normal monsoon reinforces the favourable outlook for food inflation, the spatial and temporal distribution of the rains will be critical. 'Despite the early onset, monsoon activity has slowed, although it remains early in the season, with potential for recovery in the coming weeks. Weather-related risks will need close monitoring,' Sinha added. While the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) last week cut the policy repo rate by an unexpectedly large 50 basis points (bps) to 5.50 per cent, it also tightened the stance of its policy to 'neutral' from 'accommodative', arguing that 'monetary policy is left with very limited space to support growth'. However, economists see the space for more one rate cut from the MPC, although not at the committee's next meeting in August 2025. Jasrai of India Ratings, for instance, expects a status quo on interest rates in August 2025 considering inflation is heading for the RBI's forecast of 2.9 per cent for April-June 2025 and the monetary easing affected so far. 'We expect, at max one more 25 bps cut this fiscal, unless there are surprises from global development or growth declines sharply,' Jasrai said. On Tuesday, the World Bank lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3 per cent from its January 2025 prediction of 2.7 per cent citing 'heightened trade tensions and policy uncertainty'. Growth in 2026 is expected to pick up only slightly to 2.4 per cent and further to 2.6 per cent in 2027. While a global recession is not expected, the World Bank's latest projections for the next two years, should they turn out as forecast, would mean average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest of any decade since the 1960s, it said. Siddharth Upasani is a Deputy Associate Editor with The Indian Express. He reports primarily on data and the economy, looking for trends and changes in the former which paint a picture of the latter. Before The Indian Express, he worked at Moneycontrol and financial newswire Informist (previously called Cogencis). Outside of work, sports, fantasy football, and graphic novels keep him busy. ... Read More
The Hindu
26-05-2025
- Business
- The Hindu
Tamil Nadu's capital expenditure grew over 16% in fiscal 2025
Tamil Nadu's capital expenditure grew over 16% to ₹46,076.54 crore in fiscal 2025, when compared to ₹39,540.90 crore in fiscal 2024, according to the preliminary un-audited provisional figures from the Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG). Capital expenditure (capex) goes towards creation of fixed assets, such as roads and bridges, irrigation structures, schools, hospitals, along with investments made in Public Sector Undertakings. It helps in improving economic activity and generating employment. The capital expenditure for fiscal 2025 is also in line with the projection made in the revised estimates. The overall Capital Expenditure in the Revised Estimates was projected at ₹46,766 crore, as compared to ₹47,681 crore in the initial Budget Estimates for 2024-25, as per the State Budget for 2025-2026. 'The 16% growth in fiscal 2025 indicates a sustained focus on capex by the State government. The capex growth achieved in fiscal 25 provisional is much better than the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.3% during fiscal 2018-2024,' Paras Jasrai, associate director, India Ratings & Research, said. He said this is a positive development. 'In fact, a better way to look at it is comparing the actual overall capex (including loans and advances) as a proportion of the budgeted numbers. A closer look at the data reveals that Tamil Nadu has met 95.2% of the budgeted target in fiscal 2025, which is much better than fiscal 2024 number of 86.2% and 95.4% in fiscal 2023, as well as the average of 88.1% during FY18-FY24,' Mr. Jasrai said. According to him, the State has also fared better in terms of quality of expenditure. The quality of expenditure can be gauged by capital outlay to total expenditure (COTE). The COTE stood at 12.2% in fiscal 2025 provisional numbers and has hit a three-year high (it was 12.6% in fiscal 2022), Mr. Jasrai said. The metric for fiscal 2025 provisional is also better than the average of 11.4% during fiscal 2018-fiscal 2024. For fiscal 2026, the State government has estimated capital expenditure of ₹57,231 crore, which is a growth of 22.38% from the revised estimates for fiscal 2025. The total capital outlay of the State, including Net Loans and Advances, is estimated at ₹65,328 crore in the Budget Estimates 2025-26. 'Capex remains a sustained focus for the government, which is quite favourable for the continuing the economic momentum in the state. The State has been actively focusing on fiscal consolidation as evident even in the FY26 budget,' Mr. Jasrai said.
