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Here's How To Handle A Recession If The Job Market Were To Plummet
Here's How To Handle A Recession If The Job Market Were To Plummet

Forbes

time05-05-2025

  • Business
  • Forbes

Here's How To Handle A Recession If The Job Market Were To Plummet

Stock Market Graph next to a 1 dollar bill (showing former president Washington). Red trend line ... More indicates the stock market recession period Officially, an economic downturn is not a recession until there are two consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage. We're halfway there. The American economy shrank in the first quarter of this year by 0.3%, the first contraction in 33 months. Further, we're one month into the second quarter, and although data is not compiled yet, would anyone like to lay a bet? Economic and job data orthodoxy says you don't make a statement like mine until it's official. Corporate executives don't want to destroy morale; government agencies must retain reserve; and those of us in the job market – coaches, recruiters, staffers, etc. – must not let pessimism creep in. But we all know what's in front of us; the trouble is, by the time this becomes official, we're already six months in and headed for more. This is typically where everyone's hindsight becomes so damned good. What we should be saying is:" It's not my fault but it is my problem." On the surface, April's Jobs Report seemed good – not great, but certainly better than expected: 177,000 jobs created and an unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%. But a closer look reveals trouble ahead. Nearly half of those jobs occurred in just two sectors: health care (51,000) and transportation and warehousing (29,000). When we take into account the fact that Americans spend one out of every six dollars on health care and that there was a panic-like atmosphere in moving goods around before tariffs took hold, these job numbers are not so hot. And overall, job creation has slowed and is expected to continue slowing when we can accurately measure the losses initiated by DOGE but not yet tallied or challenged in court. I expect May's report, due out on June 6 (D-Day – how symbolic) will tell a much starker story. I hope not, but I've seen these signs before. The New York Times ran a piece by Joe Rennison heading up the Business section on May 1 entitled In the Trump Economy, Only Uncertainty Is Assured. The accompanying graphic by Alvaro Dominguez showed an incredibly jagged graph line which took a precipitous drop and ended up in Donald Trump's incredibly jagged signature. The graph line was red – a picture indeed worth a thousand words. In that light, as an independent career coach and job market observer, I've been insisting for more than two decades that in times of uncertainty, the only thing we can be certain of is ourselves. That means being prepared for something before it happens rather than reacting to it once it's happening or, worse, once it's over. Unquestionably, this is one of those times. Markets (jobs, stocks, bonds, futures) abhor uncertainty just as nature abhors a vacuum – and they dramatically showed it over the last few weeks. While we've seen a bit of a bounce back, this is not nearly over, and if I can't say so as an economist (which I'm not), I'm more than confident in my expectation as a job market observer (which I have been for 28 years). The advice I offer to my clients (7,000 and counting over 28 years) and to my readers (22 years) is that one step taken in advance is longer than 10 steps taken to catch up. In other words, don't wait another minute. Don't think it won't happen to you. Don't underestimate a thing. Don't expect things to work themselves out. The time for your next move is right now, no matter what your current situation is. General Douglas MacArthur said, 'The history of failure in war can almost always be summed up in two words: 'Too late.' Too late in comprehending the deadly purpose of a potential enemy. Too late in realizing the mortal danger. Too late in preparedness. Too late in uniting all possible forces for resistance.' It's not too late to see that our recession has begun. If I'm wrong, I'll say so, but right now, that's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

Don't Look Now. The Recession Has Begun. Job Market In Danger.
Don't Look Now. The Recession Has Begun. Job Market In Danger.

Forbes

time03-05-2025

  • Business
  • Forbes

Don't Look Now. The Recession Has Begun. Job Market In Danger.

Stock Market Graph next to a 1 dollar bill (showing former president Washington). Red trend line ... More indicates the stock market recession period Officially, an economic downturn is not a recession until there are two consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage. We're halfway there. The American economy shrank in the first quarter of this year by 0.3%, the first contraction in 33 months. Further, we're one month into the second quarter, and although data is not compiled yet, would anyone like to lay a bet? Economic and job data orthodoxy says you don't make a statement like mine until it's official. Corporate executives don't want to destroy morale; government agencies must retain reserve; and those of us in the job market – coaches, recruiters, staffers, etc. – must not let pessimism creep in. But we all know what's in front of us; the trouble is, by the time this becomes official, we're already six months in and headed for more. This is typically where everyone's hindsight becomes so but it is my problem'; and, of course, where politics sinks to its lowest level. The failure – or complete lack – of leadership is painful and costly to all. On the surface, April's Jobs Report seemed good – not great, but certainly better than expected: 177,000 jobs created and an unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%. But a closer look reveals trouble ahead. Nearly half of those jobs occurred in just two sectors: health care (51,000) and transportation warehousing (29,000). When we take into account the fact that Americans spend one out of every six dollars on health care and that there was a panic-like atmosphere in moving goods around before tariffs took hold, these job numbers are not so hot. And overall, job creation has slowed and is expected to continue slowing when we can accuratg ely measure the losses initiated by DOGE but not yet tallied or challenged in court. I expect May's report, due out on June 6 (D-Day – how symbolic) will tell a much starker story. I hope not, but I've seen these signs before. The New York Times ran a piece by Joe Rennison heading up the Business section on May 1 entitled In the Trump Economy, Only Uncertainty Is Assured. The accompanying graphic by Alvaro Dominguez showed an incredibly jagged graph line which took a precipitous drop and ended up in Donald Trump's incredibly jagged signature. The graph line was red – a picture indeed worth a thousand words. In that light, as an independent career coach and job market observer, I've been insisting for more than two decades that in times of uncertainty, the only thing we can be certain of is ourselves. That means being prepared for something before it happens rather than reacting to it once it's happening or, worse, once it's over. Unquestionably, this is one of those times. Markets (jobs, stocks, bonds, futures) abhor uncertainty just as nature abhors a vacuum – and they dramatically showed it over the last few weeks. While we've seen a bit of a bounce back, this is not nearly over, and if I can't say so as an economist (which I'm not), I'm more than confident in my expectation as a job market observer (which I have been for 28 years). The advice I offer to my clients (7,000 and counting over 28 years) and to my readers (22 years) is that one step taken in advance is longer than 10 steps taken to catch up. In other words, don't wait another minute. Don't think it won't happen to you. Don't underestimate a thing. Don't expect things to work themselves out. The time for your next move is right now, no matter what your current situation is. General Douglas MacArthur said, 'The history of failure in war can almost always be summed up in two words: 'Too late.' Too late in comprehending the deadly purpose of a potential enemy. Too late in realizing the mortal danger. Too late in preparedness. Too late in uniting all possible forces for resistance.' It's not too late to see that our recession has begun. If I'm wrong, I'll say so, but right now, that's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

Turmoil weighs on tech jobs market, CompTIA reporting confirms
Turmoil weighs on tech jobs market, CompTIA reporting confirms

Associated Press

time02-05-2025

  • Business
  • Associated Press

Turmoil weighs on tech jobs market, CompTIA reporting confirms

Tech hiring intent remains stable at 203,000 new job listings DOWNERS GROVE, Ill., May 2, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Tech hiring activity in April felt the weight of ongoing economic uncertainties and mixed market signals, CompTIA, the leading global provider of vendor-neutral information technology (IT) training and certification products, reported today. Tech sector companies reduced staffing by a net 7,000 positions in April, analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) #JobsReport data reveals.1 Hiring gains in the tech services sector were not enough to offset job losses in tech manufacturing, telecommunications and cloud infrastructure. Across the economy, tech occupation employment declined by an estimated 214,000 positions.2 The unemployment rate for tech occupations experienced a corresponding increase, rising to 3.5% from the previously reported rate of 3.1%. Job postings for technology positions declined modestly in April, though employers added nearly 203,000 new listings. In total, there were almost 450,000 active tech job postings last month.3 Software developers and engineers, systems engineers and architects, tech support specialists, cybersecurity engineers and analysts and network engineers and architects were in high demand. Employer hiring for artificial intelligence (AI) positions or those that require AI-related skills continue to increase. New job postings for April stand at 55,726, an increase of 184% over the same month a year ago, according to CompTIA analysis of Lightcast job posting data. 'It was not a great month of data, but expected given the circumstances,' said Tim Herbert, chief research officer, CompTIA. 'Employer tech job postings continue to hold up, so a possible sign that hiring will resume as companies find their bearings.' Employers continue to pursue skills-based hiring strategies. About one-half of all April tech job postings did not specify a need for a four-year academic degree. On a geographic basis, California led all states with 26,280 tech jobs postings in April, an increase of 1,037 from March. Texas, Virginia and New York followed with the most postings among states, while Arizona, West Virginia and Maryland had the biggest month over month increases on a percentage basis. Nine metropolitan areas each had more than 5,000 tech job postings in April, with New York City (12,526), Washington, D.C. (11,945) and Dallas (9,789) at the top of the list. Metro markets with double digit increases in job postings from March to April included San Francisco (+14%), Phoenix (+11%) and Trenton (+16%). The 'CompTIA Tech Jobs Report' is available here. About CompTIA CompTIA Inc. is the leading global provider of vendor-neutral information technology (IT) training and certification products. CompTIA unlocks potential in millions of aspiring technology professionals and careers changers. Working in partnership with thousands of academic institutions and training providers, CompTIA helps students build career-ready skills through best-in-class learning solutions, industry-recognized certifications and career resources. Learn more at Media Contact Steven Ostrowski CompTIA [email protected] +1.630.678.8468 1 Labor market data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and employer job postings from Lightcast may be subject to backward revisions. 2 Monthly occupation level data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics tends to experience higher levels of variance and volatility. 3 Active job postings include new postings added by employers in the latest month and open postings carried over from previous months. View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE CompTIA

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