Latest news with #JoeBrusuelas
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
May jobs report: Here is one thing this economist is watching
The May employment report will be released on June 6. Wall Street will be looking for signs that the labor market is slowing. In the video above, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas shares the key data point from the report that he will be watching. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Well, labor market data is lagging under conditions like this. So I wasn't expecting that until later in the summer, but we already had a cooling in terms of overall labor demand. And I'm expecting a net gain of 125,000 and an upward migration in the unemployment rate of 4.3%. Wages should increase about three tenths of a percent, which will translate to 36, 3.6 on a year ago basis, but I do think we're going to want to watch hours worked. That that going very closely because that may be the the bellwether in terms of, you know, if hours worked stagnate or decline, your business expansion does not going to continue in the same way. Moreover, for me, the big number is 100,000. We need to see an increase above 100,000 to keep employment conditions stable. Should we see not just the top line, but the top line plus whatever downward adjustments made for the past couple months, and I think there will be a modest one. Does that arrive above 100,000? If it's below, the market's likely to respond because, hey guys, let's face it. Right now, the market's trading on sentiment. There's not a lot of fundamental action out there given the uncertainty and over the direction of trade and the knowledge that we're going to have some tough data over the next couple months. So right now we're just moving from day to day. Not very satisfying. I'm not really enjoying the explanations I'm hearing. They tend to be really ad hoc, right? But we're stuck in the middle right now. We're just going to have to wait this one out. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
May jobs report: Here is one thing this economist is watching
The May employment report will be released on June 6. Wall Street will be looking for signs that the labor market is slowing. In the video above, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas shares the key data point from the report that he will be watching. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Sign in to access your portfolio
Axios
22-05-2025
- Business
- Axios
Why the bond market is barfing
Around the world, investors are sending a clear-as-glass signal: After years of profligate debt issuance, the world's major economies are now facing the bill. The big picture: A sell-off in bond markets over recent weeks is signaling that the long-term trajectory for interest rates is higher than it has been in decades. The drop in long-term bond prices means a rise in the interest rates governments must pay to borrow money. The anticipated multitrillion-dollar widening of U.S. deficits due to the tax cut and spending legislation that passed the House early Thursday morning is part of the story, as is the Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating last week. But it's really a bigger, global phenomenon — suggesting a step-shift in what savers demand to tie up their money in the long term across major advanced economies. Driving the news: The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield touched 5.13% at one point Thursday morning, the highest since 2007. On Wednesday, an auction of 20-year bonds showed surprisingly soft demand. In Japan, with the highest ratio on Earth of debt to the size of its economy, long-term bond yields have hit new all-time highs this week. The nation's 40-year bonds were yielding 3.69% Thursday, up more than a percentage point from early April. Long-term rates in the U.K., Canada and Europe have similarly marched upward, if less dramatically. State of play: Moves in shorter-term bonds have been more modest, meaning what has changed is not investors' near-term expectations for the economy, inflation, and monetary policy, but rather the riskiness of locking their money in at low rates. In general, a steeper yield curve — higher long-term rates than short-term rates — implies a stronger growth outlook. But there are reasons to think something else is afoot. In a volatile world economy — one in which globalization marches backward or other negative supply shocks arrive — central banks might need to crank rates higher in the coming decades to keep inflation from taking off. Moreover, investors worry there will be more government debt issuance in the coming decades than savings to absorb that debt. What they're saying: "This rise has taken place not for virtuous reasons around faster growth but rather because of risks around higher inflation and the need for higher interest rates to compensate for holding long-dated dollar-denominated assets," wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, in a note. "The risks and opportunities around holding such debt are part of the explanation," he added. "A structural change is taking place in the market, forcing a general repricing of risk." The long-term bond sell-off has serious implications for both ordinary American borrowers and the nation's long-term fiscal picture. Zoom out: Because rates on Treasury securities form the bedrock costs for all other forms of borrowing, these higher costs will eventually show up in the form of more expensive mortgages and car loans. The good news is that those forms of lending are anchored to shorter-duration rates. Even if you take out a 30-year mortgage, for example, lenders know it will likely be paid off long before that as you move or refinance. And shorter-duration rates aren't up much. Yes, but: If bond investors are correct about the long-term trajectory of rates, there will be higher borrowing costs and more lending activity crowded out by the government in the years and decades ahead. Zoom in: If the higher long-term rates hold, it implies meaningfully higher debt service costs for the U.S. government's existing debt pile. That could squeeze the government's ability to pay for other priorities, whether national defense or maintaining the social safety net. The bottom line: "Everybody I have talked to in financial markets, they are staring at the [big, beautiful] bill and they thought it was going to be much more in terms of fiscal restraint," Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said Thursday morning on Fox Business.
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Avocados, oil, 401(k)s: How global markets hit your wallet
Listen and subscribe to Stocks In Translation on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcast. In this episode of Stocks in Translation, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre and Producer Sydnee Fried to discuss the concept of de-dollarization and how the depreciation of the dollar (DX=F) paired with tariff policies are causing costs in everyday items to rise. Brusuelas uses an easy-to-explain analogy with guacamole to break down why something like groceries are becoming more expensive. Twice a week, Stocks In Translation cuts through the market mayhem, noisy numbers and hyperbole to give you the information you need to make the right trade for your portfolio. You can find more episodes here, or watch on your favorite streaming service. This post was written by Lauren Pokedoff Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Washington Post
19-05-2025
- Business
- Washington Post
Here's what to know about the bond markets' latest moves
Markets came under pressure Monday as investors dumped stocks, U.S. bonds and the dollar, after the United States lost its triple-A bond rating, signaling new worries about the outlook for the world's largest economy amid President Donald Trump's trade war and heightened federal deficits. Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasurys rose sharply, as investors priced in elevated inflation fueled by higher tariffs as well as the likelihood of large, unfunded tax cuts, economists said. The yields on these bonds, which later receded from their highs, are nonetheless important because they influence what millions of consumers and businesses pay to borrow. 'Rising yields on the back of the U.S. credit downgrade is indicative of what will occur if Washington does not curb its appetite for unsustainable spending and low taxes: increasing costs to borrow for both households and businesses,' said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Here's what to know about the bond market.
