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The National
7 hours ago
- Politics
- The National
John Swinney reacts as SNP lose Hamilton by-election to Labour
The SNP had held the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse seat since 2011 but a by-election was called after the sad death of Christina McKelvie, who had been receiving treatment for breast cancer. However, Labour won the constituency in a surprise result on Friday morning, securing 32% of the overall vote share. The vote share had barely changed since 2021, however the SNP were on 29% - down 17 points on their 2021 result. READ MORE: Scottish Labour win Hamilton by-election in shock upset for SNP Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has said the result indicates the SNP have made "very little progress" in regaining support since their poor performance at the 2024 General Election. Responding to the Hamilton by-election, Scotland's First Minister gave his congratulations to new Labour MSP Davy Russell. He went on: "Katy Loudon fought a superb SNP campaign. We have made progress since the election last year but not enough. We still have work to do and we will do it." More to follow
Irish Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Irish Times
‘Scunnered' Scottish voters go to the polls in crucial byelection
When Scottish broadcaster STV recently hit the streets of Hamilton to gauge the mood of voters in advance of Thursday's crucial byelection, its political editor Colin Mackay returned with a pithy one-word verdict. Locals, he said, were 'scunnered' with politics. This general mood of disdain towards the establishment parties has opened the door to a once-unthinkable proposition: Reform UK , Nigel Farage 's upstart English nationalist outfit, is now a serious contender in a constituency vote in Scotland. Reform is still thought unlikely to win this week's byelection for the Holyrood devolved parliament seat of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse; the Scottish National Party (SNP) is the favourite. But the mere fact that Reform is even capable of mounting a serious challenge illustrates the degree to which the sands are shifting in UK politics. Polling guru John Curtice, a professor at Strathclyde University, believes the SNP should prevail in the byelection, but with potentially only a third of the vote. Meanwhile, Labour 's worst nightmare would be if Reform were to push it into third place. READ MORE That would cement a narrative taking hold in British politics that says Reform, having conquered the Tories , is now coming for Labour's votes. It could also be a harbinger that the SNP, which looked dead and buried a year ago after the Westminster election, could yet cling to power in Holyrood after next year's devolved parliament elections. With a dearth of constituency polling, Labour sources still hope the party could pull off a surprise win in this week's Hamilton byelection. But for a Labour win to be seen as an outside prospect so soon after its supposed Scottish comeback last year shows just how its fortunes have dipped since winning power in Westminster. This week's byelection is in an area of Lanarkshire to the southeast of Glasgow. It was called following the death in March of the SNP's Christina McKelvie, who had been diagnosed with breast cancer. A large part of the devolved parliament constituency overlaps with the Westminster constituency of Labour MP Imogen Walker. She is married to Irish man Morgan McSweeney, UK prime minister Keir Starmer 's top adviser. That would make it even more embarrassing for the party were Reform to push it into third spot. The area includes most of the large town of Hamilton, with its relatively depressed centre, as well as the town of Larkhall, a bastion of Glasgow Rangers support that was once tagged the 'most sectarian town in Scotland'. Past articles have focused on the vandalism of anything in the town that was the colour green, synonymous with Irishness; the shopfront of the local Subway was repainted black by the company. Reform has canvassed heavily in Larkhall. [ SNP stages unlikely revival as Scottish Labour support collapses Opens in new window ] The campaign has been nasty at times. Reform, whose candidate is former Tory Ross Lambie, ran an online ad targeting the leader of Scottish Labour, Anas Sarwar. It suggested he would 'prioritise the Pakistani community'. Given Sarwar's ethnic heritage, the jibe was criticised as 'racist' by the other parties. The SNP's candidate is Katy Loudon, who unsuccessfully ran for the party in a Westminster byelection in 2023 and at last July's national poll. Considering Reform is pulling most of its support from Labour and the Tories, it could be third time lucky for Loudon this week as Farage's party further splits the pro-Union vote. Labour surged to more than 35 per cent of the Scottish vote in the Westminster vote last year, but most recent opinion polls for Holyrood show it has given up that ground already. It is now neck-and-neck with Reform at just below 20 per cent, but can blame much of its Scottish woes on the unpopularity of Starmer's UK government.
Scotsman
3 days ago
- General
- Scotsman
Professor Sir John Curtice gives his predictions for the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election
Voters go to the polls in the crunch by-election on Thursday. Sign up to our Politics newsletter Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... The SNP looks set to win this week's Holyrood by-election, according to polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice. With less than 48 hours to go until the polls open for the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, it looks to be a 'close' fight between the SNP and Nigel Farage's Reform UK. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Professor Curtice predicts it will be tight, and the winner might come away with less than a third of the overall votes. Political scientist Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University. Picture:|Speaking on BBC Good Morning Scotland, he said: 'Whoever wins, the SNP are the favourites but there are no polls to anticipate that, but if Hamilton follows evidence of the national polls, it will be a close contest. 'It ought to be close between SNP and Reform, and maybe Reform will do somewhat better than in the national polls. "But we are looking at a winner with less than a third of the vote and winning by a small margin.' Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Prof Curtice says eyes will be on this week's by-election result to see if it can give an indication of how things will pan out at next year's Holyrood election. The SNP is currently leading the Holyrood polls at 33 per cent, while Scottish Labour has fallen back down to where it was polling in 2021. This comes after Scottish Labour climbed to be neck-and-neck with the SNP in the Holyrood polls last summer. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Prof Curtice said: 'The by-election will tell you where we are in Scotland, but it doesn't set Scotland on a guaranteed path. 'But if the SNP wins Hamilton with a diminished share of the vote, and Labour falls back from where it was in 2021, it will confirm the evidence we have from opinion polls. 'It will also confirm that the mood has changed on Anas Sarwar moving into Bute House and that the SNP looks favourite to remain in office. 'If Labour wins, even though they have not had the easiest of by-election campaigns, they can claim a fair amount of credit, perhaps more than necessary.' Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad
The National
4 days ago
- Politics
- The National
What to expect as we cover the Hamilton by-election this week
The by-election has been called after Christina McKelvie, a beloved figure within the SNP, died earlier this year aged 57. She had been on leave from her ministerial role after being diagnosed with stage two breast cancer the year prior. The by-election process to find Christina's replacement has been pretty fraught, with Reform UK being accused of pushing "racist" adverts against Anas Sarwar and bringing divisive politics up to Scotland. On Monday, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage invited journalists to a media event in Hamilton which ultimately never happened, after expressing anger at protesters targeting his events in Scotland. He accused The Herald of leaking his location to activists as a small group of campaigners demonstrate outside his press conference on Monday morning, in an attack on the Scottish media condemned by the newspaper's editor and the National Union of Journalists. READ MORE: Scottish Labour councillor defects to Reform UK Elsewhere, Labour's candidate has been branded the "invisible man" for avoiding debates and media appearances. It hasn't been a great advertisement for Scottish politics at its best. Professor John Curtice last week told us he expects the SNP to win on Thursday, but Reform UK could sneak into second-place ahead of Labour. It's thought Farage's party is performing well in the area. We have been out on the campaign trail with Katy Loudon (below) and John Swinney, challenging Sarwar over his party's poor efforts, and speaking to constituents in the area about their views on the whole thing. On Monday we even provided a pretty detailed account of Farage's shambolic campaign visit (though if you're cynical, you could say it went exactly to plan for the former Ukip leader...) Our coverage so far has been pretty extensive, but you can expect lots more this week. Our in-depth profile of the constituency A special feature on the big issues affecting this by-election Analysis from our political team on the big moments of the campaign An overnight live blog with on-the-ground insight from the count Livestreams with our Editor, Content Editor and Political Reporters from the count, answering your questions well into the night The results broken down into key charts and graphs Post-result analysis from the likes of James Kelly and Professor John Curtice Behind-the-scenes insight from our Political Reporting team This is a significant by-election, with the SNP hoping to prove a political comeback from last year's poor General Election result. Meanwhile Reform are hoping to show that they can gain ground in Scotland, somewhere Farage has traditionally struggled. Whatever the results on Friday morning, there will be plenty to unpack. If you don't want to miss out on any of that, make sure you're subscribed at from just £1 for three months.
The Independent
25-05-2025
- Business
- The Independent
U-turns on controversial policies won't win back lost voters, Starmer warned
Sir Keir Starmer has been warned that announcing U-turns on controversial policies may not be enough to turn around his dwindling approval ratings or win back lost voters. Polling experts say last week's climbdown on winter fuel payment cuts — as well as a potential reversal on the Tories' two-child benefit cap — run the risk of making him look 'insecure' and could trigger yet more talk of a leadership challenge. The warning comes as the prime minister scrambles to win over voters who have turned their back on Labour since the party's historic general election victory ten months ago. The PM is also facing a rebellion from his own MPs over controversial welfare cuts and a growing unease over the direction of the party. Polling guru Sir John Curtice warned that any policy reversals — even if deemed popular by MPs and the public — may not be enough to assuage concerns over his leadership, adding that 'doubts have crept in' for Labour MPs over whether Sir Keir is the right person to lead the party to victory in 2029. Referring to the recent U-turn on winter fuel payment cuts, he told The Independent: 'These things stick in the memory — so you can change the policy now and you can probably reduce the damage, but it's difficult to erase some people's memory.' Fellow pollster Lord Hayward, a Tory peer, also warned that too many U-turns could paint a picture of insecurity for the prime minister. 'The big risk is that any government that reverses a headline policy — which clearly they have done on winter fuel allowance — immediately does two things. 'One, it leaves itself open for more bids for the reversals of policy, and secondly, it is a display of insecurity which automatically gives rise to talk about the replacement of a leader.' He added of Sir Keir: 'In relation to putting him back in a strong position, he has to be consistent. You can afford to reverse the odd policy, but you can't afford to reverse lots of them. So he has to be clear about where he goes from here.' On Wednesday, the prime minister announced plans to row back on last year's controversial decision to means test the winter fuel payment, telling the Commons he would look at increasing the thresholds at which people start to receive the benefit. Sir Keir is also now reportedly considering scrapping the two-child benefit cap — a policy that restricts parents from claiming certain benefits for more than two of their children — because it is 'the right thing to do'. Critics of the policy say removing the cap would be the most effective way of reducing child poverty across the UK amid warnings that as many as 100 children are pulled into poverty every day by the limit. Labour backbenchers have also been urging ministers to axe the cap over recent months as disquiet grows against Sir Keir's wider welfare reforms, with more than 150 MPs now preparing to vote against them. However, Sir John pointed out that the decision is a complex one for Sir Keir because the two-child benefit cap is relatively popular among voters, adding that reversing it is 'not what you would choose to do if you were really focused on why you were behind in the opinion polls." It would also be seen as a significant backtrack for the prime minister, after he last year stripped seven MPs of the Labour whip for rebelling against the government over an SNP-led motion to scrap the cap. The reported change in approach was revealed as it emerged that Nigel Farage is preparing to outflank Sir Keir on benefits by committing to scrapping the cap and fully reinstating the winter fuel payment – piling pressure on the prime minister to do the same. The PM has been attempting to tackle the threat posed by Reform UK after they won a massive 677 council seats at the local elections and overturned the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary seat. Sir Keir's party lost two-thirds of the council seats they won in 2021 and are continuing to lag behind Reform in the polls. Asked on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg about whether the cap would be abolished, Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner refused to be drawn on the reports. "I'm not going to speculate on what our government is going to do,' she said. Meanwhile, the deputy prime minister was forced to deny having ambitions to become the leader of the Labour Party, amid growing rumours that she is seeking to challenge Sir Keir. Quizzed about a potential leadership challenge, Ms Rayner categorically ruled out wanting to hold the position at any point in the future, saying she would 'never' consider putting herself forward as prime minister. The Independent revealed that a large number of MPs from the so-called 'soft left' of the party are organising to try to force a change of direction, with allies of Ms Rayner urging her to organise a leadership contest. But Ms Rayner told Sky News: 'I don't want to be leader of the Labour Party.' Sir John warned that the questions over Sir Keir's leadership reflects the 'nervousness that has now got into the Labour party about Starmer and the character of his government, and certainly the party's standing in the polls'. "The authority of prime ministers rest very heavily on their being thought to be a winner for their party,' he said. 'The problem that Starmer now has is that doubts have crept in to [Labour MPs'] minds as to whether or is going to be a winner in 2029.' Lord Hayward said the questions over a possible leadership challenge from Ms Rayner are a 'real reflection of the difficulties that Labour are in at this point.' It comes after a leaked memo, thought to be part of a briefing campaign against the deputy prime minister from rivals within the government, revealed that Ms Rayner backed plans to force middle-class families to lose their child benefit in a bid to avoid welfare cuts for the disabled and a squeeze on public spending. Meanwhile, Ms Rayner piled further pressure on the prime minister over his plan to water down the winter fuel cut, saying details could be revealed within weeks. Downing Street last week insisted that the first opportunity to unveil the changes would be at October's budget, raising questions over whether that would allow enough time to have the changes in force for next winter. Indicating a shift in position, Ms Rayner said on Sunday: 'Well, I think that the we've got the upcoming Spending Review, and I'm sure that the chancellor will set it out when we've got the opportunity. At the first opportunity, she will set out what we'll be able to do.'
