Latest news with #JorgePolanco
New York Times
27-05-2025
- Entertainment
- New York Times
Fantasy baseball buy, sell, hold advice on Mookie Betts, Gunnar Henderson and more
Generally, hitters are correctly viewed as the back of their baseball cards. Any performance that deviates too far from that, especially regarding veteran hitters, is viewed as more of a fluke than a fact. Pitchers are different, given there are so many ways for them to radically improve or decline and sustain those new levels. Again, we should be skeptical when a player's hitting significantly changes. Advertisement However, we now have new data: expected stats. If hitters are improving their contact profiles at a fundamental level a third of the way into the season, supported by their year-over-year data from Statcast/Baseball Savant, does that warrant a fresh projection? If that's the case, some hitters are currently undervalued based on Yahoo roster rates. Additionally, some hitters have had an unexpected collapse in contact performance, with their fantasy managers still holding steady based on the baseball-card theory for hitting projections. Jorge Polanco (SEA, 3B) is 55% rostered. He's been a 95th-percentile hitter in expected stats, and he's improved 30.4% from 2024 (through Monday). He's been a good hitter in the past, but we thought those days were over, even at age 31, given how he declined from 2023 to 2024. He doesn't strike out much, has a top barrel rate and average bat speed. Polanco is an extreme pull hitter, making up for his suboptimal fly-ball rate. Expect the power to continue at the current pace, along with a top average. Michael Busch (CHC, 1B) is 48% rostered. Everything is up across the board in his hitting stats, and his expected xwOBA is in the top 15%. He's improved 17.2% in the stat from 2024. The K rate is still bad, but it's down to 25% from 28.6% in 2024. Bat speed holds him down in the power department (he only has five expected homers, two fewer than his actual number). This roster rate feels about right, but you could do worse. Colt Keith (DET, 2B) is 12% rostered. He's a strong-side platoon option who has not hit lefties. But he's getting more plate appearances against lefties than in 2024, so this doesn't account for his 17.4% boost in expected performance compared to last year. He was viewed as a top college hitter and, as a top 20% MLB bat in these expected stats, he's beginning to realize that potential. Advertisement Ryan Jeffers (MIN, C) is just 17% rostered. Even in one-catcher leagues, this roster rate is too low. He's been batting leadoff. There's no reason he can't finish the season at a 20-homer pace. His Ks are down so much that he should help at least a little in batting average. His 75th-percentile walk rate should keep him in the leadoff spot even when Byron Buxton returns. He had an .859 actual OPS in 2023, when his xwOBA was less than what it is now (.333 vs. today's .352 — 72nd percentile). These players are slumping badly, but no one seems to believe it. Should w,e though? All are very young players in MLB experience. Lawrence Butler (ATH, OF) is delivering homers and steals at the rates we wanted, but he's been an unexceptional hitter overall — actual OPS of .729 vs. .807 last year and an almost identical 9% decline in xwOBA. His whiff rate on breaking balls is 48.2%, compared to 26.9% last year. He has adjustments to make, but can he make them on the fly? Jackson Chourio (MIL, OF) is, like Butler, undroppable for the homers and steals. But he's still a big disappointment, failing to pick up where he left off as one of the game's best hitters in the second half of 2024. His OPS is just .695. His expected stats are down 11.9% — gross! He's chasing way more than last year (3rd percentile). He's a 16th-percentile hitter. Coming into the season, I wanted all the Chourio I could get, and I obviously got ahead of myself. Gunnar Henderson (BAL, SS) is surprisingly a below-average hitter in expected statistics and has arguably gotten lucky to have only a 108-point OPS decline from 2024. The Ks are moving in the wrong direction. He's also struggling with breaking balls, whiffing on 42%, compared to 26% last year. Sometimes the pitchers force you to adjust and address your weaknesses. This could change at any time, given his talent, particularly his bat speed, which is in the 93rd percentile. Jackson Holliday (70% rostered) has actually been a better hitter, though he has a lower ceiling due to much less bat speed. Now, some general words on hitters who are way off with actual stats. What do their expected stats say? Juan Soto (NYM, OF) was fairly discussed early in the 'Sunday Night Baseball' telecast, which touched on the inescapable point that Soto is probably MLB's most unlucky hitter right now. Then the announcers spent the next two hours ripping him at every at-bat for all the things he's doing wrong. It was quite bizarre. His expected stats are down 8%, but from a remarkably high level. He's solidly a top-10 overall hitter in the data. He is owed a white-hot month or two. Advertisement Mookie Betts (LAD, SS) is down 5% in expected stats but is only a 50th-percentile hitter. That's shocking. He's 84th overall in xwOBA — Soto is fifth. Betts has lost so much bat speed – from 71 mph in 2023 to 69 in 2024 and now 68 mph this season, which is 14th percentile. He has to be nearly perfect in squaring up the baseball to produce. That's a tough way to make a living. Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS) is only down 1% from last year in expected stats, but is unable to overcome it by outpacing gravity in 2025. So while his 8% decline in actual stats may seem like a fluke, it isn't. He's crushing steals with 17 (pace of about 50), though that's also disappointing for someone who stole 67 last season. His homers are on track to replicate his 2024 mark of 25. He's sort of in Julio Rodriguez land as a hitter who just isn't breaking out the way we've built it into his cost. You may wish you had taken the new Cruz — Oneil — at Elly's price instead. They're basically the same player, though Elly strikes out marginally less. (Top photo of Mookie Betts: Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Images)
New York Times
20-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Roki Sasaki is too predictable, Jorge Polanco is keeping it simple and more
Roki Sasaki started this year with high expectations for his MLB debut season. However, his ERA sits at 4.72 through his first eight starts, and deeper signs of struggle are beneath the surface. Meanwhile, Jorge Polanco — mainly limited to left-handed hitting due to injury — is quietly having the best season of his career in Seattle. Today, I will dive into what is causing Sasaki's struggles and whether Polanco's performance is sustainable. Advertisement While moving from Japan comes with challenges and adjustments, let's dive into what is causing Sasaki's struggles on the mound with the Dodgers and whether he can improve. There are four issues I'm seeing for Sasaki: In Japan, Sasaki's fastball averaged 98-99 mph, reaching 101 mph at times in 2023. Based on international scouting reports, his average fastball velocity in 2024 was closer to 97 mph. This season, he started hot, hitting 100 mph in his first start. However, his velocity has been steadily dropping since, leading to a season average velocity of 96 mph. Sasaki's 14% walk rate is in the bottom 4% of MLB. His below-average first-pitch strike rate is a contributing factor, as he consistently falls behind in counts. This is leading to problems getting outs, and I will discuss this more when I get to his attack vs. righties. He throws three pitches: a 96 mph four-seamer, an 85 mph splitter and an 82 mph slider. However, the slider is not an effective pitch, as Sasaki can't control it. He mainly throws it against righties, but it consistently does not fool hitters and results in balls. Its two-strike conversion rate (percent of pitches resulting in a strikeout) is the ninth-worst in baseball among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 sliders. Looking at the pitch chart, it is clear why. Many of these sliders are not thrown in competitive locations. They rarely get chased low and don't induce swings when thrown inside. Even some of the strikes called on the inside are borderline pitches. This is his only breaking pitch, and Sasaki can't land it for strikes consistently. Overall, hitters are not chasing his stuff. All three of his pitches result in well below-average chase. As a result, he needs to throw more in-zone. This is the biggest problem I see with Sasaki — his pitches are not finishing off hitters. We already saw that none of his pitches are getting chased, meaning he needs to throw in-zone. But his two most relied on pitches are also not getting missed when thrown in-zone: If they are not getting whiffs, then ideally they would be getting ground balls or weak contact. Of his three pitches, only the four-seamer is getting more ground balls than average, which is interesting because the four-seamer is not typically a ground ball pitch. In terms of contact, only the slider has a hard hit rate that is better than average. The four-seamer and the splitter are consistently resulting in hard contact: So he is not getting chase, whiffs, ground balls or soft contact, making it much harder for him to get outs. As a right-handed pitcher, Sasaki should be doing better than he is against righties. So far this season, he has a 4.82 FIP. In addition to the issues discussed previously, Sasaki is also very predictable against righties. Looking at his pitch usage, he leans heavily on his four-seamer. The only situation where he mixes his pitches is with two strikes. The four-seamer usage is so high when he falls behind (which occurs more often than average) that, in full counts, hitters can expect a fastball. Even the first pitch four-seamer usage is high enough for hitters to anticipate attacking early. Advertisement On Tuesday, May 13, the Dodgers placed Sasaki on the 15-day injured list due to right shoulder impingement. While this injury may have affected his results a bit, Sasaki's lower velocity, below-average control, poor pitch results and predictable game plan have made it hard for him to see consistent success at the MLB level so far. If Sasaki is to see better results upon his return, he will need to do a better job throwing competitive pitches, getting ahead in counts and fooling hitters. Despite not being 100% healthy, Polanco is off to a hot start this season with a 1.021 OPS through 34 games. A switch hitter his entire career, Polanco started this season batting as a lefty for the majority of the time due to dealing with soreness when batting from the right side — just 12 plate appearances as a righty. In his career, Polanco has been more successful as a left-handed hitter: In 2025, his stat line as a lefty is even more impressive: 113 PAs, 12% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 1.026 OPS. The two biggest differences are his contact quality and bat-to-ball ability on the left side. His average exit velocity is a career-high 92.2 mph, and his .614 xSLG ranks eighth in MLB. He is also doing significantly better in the heart of the zone. In terms of his bat-to-ball ability, he's cut his strikeout rate significantly compared to his career numbers when batting left-handed and is making more contact in-zone while missing less overall. Looking at his mechanics, it looks like Polanco has simplified his pre-pitch stance and load this season: Starting with pre-pitch, Polanco is standing more closed and is straighter in the box. His hands are also elevated compared to the end of 2024. Looking at his load position, there are several key differences. In 2024, Polanco loaded with a dramatic leg raise that shifted his weight completely to his back leg before pausing and swinging. In 2025, we are seeing a much more subtle leg raise with a more fluid shift in weight that transfers his power more effectively to his swing. Overall, it is quieter and more athletic. As a result, he is barreling and translating his power into games effectively this season. Advertisement While his strikeout rate is lower and his contact quality is improved, his plate discipline is similar to that of his career. The biggest change is that he is ambushing the first pitch a career-high 35% of the time. He's only seeing first-pitch fastballs 45% of the time, so he's not just targeting fastballs. He is more prepared to attack any first pitch he likes in-zone. Overall, Polanco's start in 2025 is not just luck; it is due to adjustments and the situation. Hitting lefty and simplifying his swing have allowed him to improve his contact while maintaining power. Even though the Dodgers are losing Roki Sasaki for a short time, they have no shortage of pitchers ready to step up. With Tony Gonsolin back and Clayton Kershaw's activation off the IL, the rotation remains strong. While it is great to have depth, this talent also blocks younger players from having an opportunity to start long-term. RHP Ben Casparius, for example, is someone I see as a rotation piece on most other teams around MLB. He is expected to be a long reliever for the Dodgers, but if he's traded, he can certainly take on a higher role as a starter with a new team. He has strikeout stuff, the ability to face both hands, and above-average control. His development and progress, though potentially overshadowed in Los Angeles, are worth keeping an eye on. Ozzie Albies is having a rocky start to the season with a .616 OPS. His struggles stem from a decline in contact quality, particularly power. This season, he is not hitting the ball as hard as in past years. His maximum exit velocity is 107.2mph (down about six mph from last season), and his hard hit rate ranks 10th-worst in baseball at 26%. This may partially be due to him seeing fewer fastballs than in years past, but his power against fastballs has also declined. This trend is seen for Albies as both a lefty and righty, but is significantly worse as a righty hitter. Albies has historically done very well from the right side, so this is particularly concerning. Something to keep an eye on for improvement would be if he starts making hard contact consistently again soon, at least from one side of the plate. It's hard to say he'll be back to normal without seeing his exit velocities rebound first. The Rays' Brandon Lowe is also having a worse-than-anticipated start to the season, stemming from increased misses in the zone. He has a .416 OPS against lefties this season, and the Rays recently benched him against Max Fried. This was particularly telling as the Rays' lineup has been underwhelming overall. Lowe's struggles are not related to his contact quality, which remains strong, but rather, he is missing too many pitches in-zone, especially fastballs. If he is going to bounce back this season, the improvement will begin when he starts making more contact in-zone, especially against hard pitches. (Top photo of Roki Sasaki: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Seattle Mariners Move in Power Rankings After Rare Series Loss
The Seattle Mariners have been one of the better teams in baseball to this point in the season. They enter this week with a 22-17 record, good enough for first in the American League West. It is not all sunshine and rainbows in the Pacific Northwest, however, as the Mariners did suffer their first series loss since early April over the weekend. It came in the form of a sweep at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays, who entered the series with a 17-20 record. Getting swept over the weekend has seen the stock of the team fall, with Will Leitch of dropping the team in the weekly power rankings. After coming in at seventh last week, the team now ranks ninth. Advertisement Despite the sweep, this Mariners team has seemed different than those in years past. It was just last season that the team led the division until late in the year, before the Houston Astros decided that enough was enough and that they wanted to continue their dynastic ways for at least one more year. This year's offense, led by Jorge Polanco and Cal Raleigh, has performed much better than anyone expected it to at this point in the year. It has been a major catalyst to the M's success, along with the stellar starting pitching, of course. If the Mariners can somehow find a way to keep the magic in their bats for the remainder of the year, and the pitching staff can stay healthy, Seattle can certainly make some noise in the postseason. It's just a matter of getting there first.
USA Today
07-05-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Jorge Polanco Player Props: May 7, Mariners vs. Athletics
Jorge Polanco Player Props: May 7, Mariners vs. Athletics Jorge Polanco will look to get back on track after a hitless showing in his most recent game (0 for 3). His Seattle Mariners face Gunnar Hoglund and the Athletics on Wednesday at 3:35 p.m. ET on NBCS-CA and ROOT Sports NW. Find odds, stats, and more below to make your Jorge Polanco player prop bets. Polanco paces the Mariners with 27 runs batted in (while hitting nine home runs). Watch tonight's Mariners game on Fubo! Jorge Polanco Prop Bets and Odds Hits Prop: 0.5 hits (Over odds: -250) 0.5 hits (Over odds: -250) Home Runs Prop: 0.5 home runs (Over odds: +425) 0.5 home runs (Over odds: +425) RBI Prop: 0.5 RBI (Over odds: +175) 0.5 RBI (Over odds: +175) Runs Prop: 0.5 runs (Over odds: -110) 0.5 runs (Over odds: -110) Total Bases Prop: 1.5 total bases (Over odds: +110) 1.5 total bases (Over odds: +110) Stolen Bases Prop: 0.5 stolen bases (Over odds: +1050) How to Watch Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics Matchup: Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics Time: 3:35 p.m. ET 3:35 p.m. ET Date: Wednesday, May 7, 2025 Wednesday, May 7, 2025 TV Channel: NBCS-CA and ROOT Sports NW NBCS-CA and ROOT Sports NW Live Stream: Fubo (Watch now! - Regional restrictions may apply) Jorge Polanco vs. Gunnar Hoglund Jorge Polanco prop bet insights Polanco has tallied a hit 20 times this season in 26 games played (76.9%), including seven multi-hit games (26.9%). In 26.9% of his games this season, he has homered (seven of 26). During the 2025 campaign, he's taken the pitcher deep in 9.3% of his trips to the dish. Polanco has scored at least a run in 13 of 26 games played this season (50.0%), including two games with multiple runs scored. He has notched at least one RBI in 14 out of 26 games this year (53.8%), with two or more RBI in seven of those games (26.9%). Polanco has struck out at least once eight times this year in 26 tries (30.8%), including punching out on multiple occasions in 11.5% of games (three times). MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Wednesday at 1:25 p.m. ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub. Jorge Polanco stats against the Athletics Athletics starter: Gunnar Hoglund
USA Today
05-05-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Jorge Polanco Player Props: May 5, Mariners vs. Athletics
Jorge Polanco Player Props: May 5, Mariners vs. Athletics Jorge Polanco was hitless in his previous game (0-for-3 with an RBI), but will have another crack at it when the Seattle Mariners square off versus Luis Severino and the Athletics on Monday at 10:05 p.m. ET on NBCS-CA and ROOT Sports NW. Find odds, stats, and more below to make your Jorge Polanco player prop bets. Polanco has accumulated a team-best 26 runs batted in (he's hit nine home runs). Watch tonight's Mariners game on Fubo! Jorge Polanco Prop Bets and Odds Hits Prop: 0.5 hits (Over odds: -227) 0.5 hits (Over odds: -227) Home Runs Prop: 0.5 home runs (Over odds: +425) 0.5 home runs (Over odds: +425) RBI Prop: 0.5 RBI (Over odds: +170) 0.5 RBI (Over odds: +170) Runs Prop: 0.5 runs (Over odds: -111) 0.5 runs (Over odds: -111) Total Bases Prop: 1.5 total bases (Over odds: +120) 1.5 total bases (Over odds: +120) Stolen Bases Prop: 0.5 stolen bases (Over odds: +1150) How to Watch Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics Matchup: Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics Time: 10:05 p.m. ET 10:05 p.m. ET Date: Monday, May 5, 2025 Monday, May 5, 2025 TV Channel: NBCS-CA and ROOT Sports NW NBCS-CA and ROOT Sports NW Live Stream: Fubo (Watch now! - Regional restrictions may apply) Jorge Polanco vs. Luis Severino In his career against Luis Severino, Polanco is 3-for-4 with a home run. When facing off against Luis Severino this season, Polanco is 2-for-2. Last year against Luis Severino, Polanco went 1-for-2 with a home run at the plate. Jorge Polanco prop bet insights In 79.2% of his games this year (19 of 24), Polanco has recorded a hit, and in seven of those games (29.2%) he's recorded multiple base knocks. In seven of 24 games this season, he has homered (29.2%). He's hit a round-tripper in 10.3% of his trips to the plate in 2025. In 11 of 24 games this year (45.8%), Polanco has scored at least a run, including two games with multiple runs scored. In 13 of 24 games this year (54.2%), he has notched an RBI, and seven of those games (29.2%) included an effort that produced . He has also accounted for three or more of his team's runs in three contests. In eight of 24 games this season (33.3%), Polanco has gone down on strikes, and three of those games (12.5%) included a performance that resulted in two or more punchouts. MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Monday at 1:26 p.m. ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub. Jorge Polanco stats against the Athletics Athletics starter: Luis Severino
