Latest news with #Kalshi
New York Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- New York Post
Odds that Trump will release Epstein files surge above 50% for first time
The odds that the White House will release any of the Epstein files spiked above 50% this week, with gamblers putting $5 million so far on the question. Kalshi, a site that allows people to make a wager on the outcome of almost any event, saw the number of people betting 'yes' on the question skyrocket Wednesday — after news broke that the US Department of Justice told President Trump back in May that his name appeared in the controversial documents. 'We have seen dramatic activity in the Epstein files market,' Jack Such, head of media at Kalshi, told The Post. Advertisement The odds jumped Friday to 60%, after news broke Ghislaine Maxwell gave the DOJ info about '100 different people' linked to the sex offender. The largest trade was $3,000 when the odds were just 21% – if Trump releases the files, the gambler will walk away with close to $15,000, Such said. Advertisement Kalshi's won't pay out unless the files contain genuinely new, previously unreleased material — not just a rehash of what's already public. 'Prediction markets are the most accurate tool available to predict future political events,' said Such, who claimed 'Kalshi routinely outperforms polls, expert opinion and other forms of prediction.' 3 A report this week said the DOJ told Trump in May he was in the Epstein files. Getty Images Just two weeks ago, the odds that any new files related to the late pedophile would be released was priced at 13%. Advertisement Prediction markets were among the few prognosticators to correctly call Zohran Mamdani's June Democratic primary victory in the NYC mayoral race. Rank-and-file lawmakers are pushing House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to hold a vote to compel the release of the documents, once the House of Representatives returns from its summer recess Sept. 2. 3 The Justice Department has said that more than 1,000 young women and girls were victimized by Epstein. AP Johnson sent lawmakers home early Monday, arguing Congress needs to give the Trump administration 'space' to handle the hot-button issue on its own. Advertisement A House Oversight subcommittee voted 8-2 Wednesday to subpoena the DOJ for the Epstein files, with Reps. Nancy Mace (R-NC), Scott Perry (R-PA), and Brian Jack (R-GA) crossing party lines to back Democrats. 3 There's been mounting pressure on the Trump administration to release the Epstein files. AP Meanwhile a top Justice Department official met with Maxwell Thursday and Friday in Florida, as the GOP-led House Oversight Committee subpoenaed the convicted madam for testimony, with a deposition tentatively set for Aug. 11.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
xAI Partners With Kalshi To Offer Stock Insights for Investors
This story was originally published on Social Media Today. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Social Media Today newsletter. Over the years, there have been various stories about Elon Musk's higher-than-normal risk tolerance, and his willingness to take major chances on things, despite the potential impacts that may come, to himself and to his companies. We've seen that with X s well, with Musk randomly ripping out servers and cutting staff, despite not knowing, for sure, what the actual outcome of such might be. Such actions, despite carrying significant risk, have turned out fine (in relative terms), and it's this gung-ho, action-first approach that many attribute to Elon's ongoing business success. Which is what came to mind when I saw today's announcement that X is partnering with Kalshi to provide Grok insights within Kalshi's market prediction overviews. As you can see in this example, market analytics platform Kalshi will now be able to display contextual insights from Grok within its stock overviews, providing more data for investors to incorporate into their buying and selling approach. Which makes sense, in helping investors make more sense of what's happening. But then again, there is a line that needs to be drawn between adding insight, and influencing investment decisions, based on what an AI bot says. Because that seems pretty risky. If an investor loses out because Grok told them not to buy in, that would be considered direct financial advice, and the FTC has some pretty strict rules around that element. Because it's so risky, because it can have a major impact, yet X is stepping into this with seemingly little regard for potential fallout in this respect. X also announced a similar deal with Polymarket last month, with Polymarket now able to incorporate predictions based on X posts, along with insights from xAI's Grok system, to provide contextual pointers for its forecasts. And both of these activations present the same level of risk in providing financial advice, or financial-type advice, via AI means. It seems like a potential lawsuit waiting to happen, particularly when you also consider Elon Musk's own business ties, and how these advice notes could link back to them. Indeed, the FTC advises that: 'If you endorse a product through social media, your endorsement message should make it obvious when you have a relationship ('material connection') with the brand. A 'material connection' to the brand includes a personal, family, or employment relationship or a financial relationship – such as the brand paying you or giving you free or discounted products or services.' That's more specifically related to influencer endorsement, but the same rules would apply to AI tools as well. And with Elon having a hand in various stock impacting elements, and with xAI looking to angle Grok to better align with his personal views, it seems like only a matter of time before both of these partnerships lead to at least some issues on this front. But again, Elon is fine with higher levels of risk than most. And with X's 'everything app' vision being largely centered on finance, and enabling people to manage their entire financial life within the app, investment integrations make sense in that broader scope. I'm just not sure there are clear enough parameters as yet around the use of AI for stock advice, and for X specifically to be facilitating such.
CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Musk's Grok AI is now on the Kalshi, Polymarket betting apps. What could go wrong?
Elon Musk is now a driving force in prediction markets. Musk's xAI on Thursday announced a partnership to integrate its artificial intelligence chatbot Grok with Kalshi's prediction markets service. In June, xAI announced a similar deal with Polymarket, a Kalshi rival. Kalshi, the company that turned heads with a made-with-AI commercial during the NBA Finals this year, said Grok will be hosted on its platform and "provide helpful context on developments and fluctuations in market prices." In May, Grok made headlines when it provided unsolicited context to users on X about "white genocide" in South Africa. Earlier this month, Grok praised Adolf Hitler in comments about the Texas floods and spewed antisemitism. "Kalshi's feelings about the partnership are excitement only," a spokesperson for the company said when asked if there were any concerns about Grok's "horrific behavior." Predictions markets are gambling platforms that have real-time odds based on users willingness to bet on outcomes. They offer prop bets for real-world events. Those who use prediction markets frequently reference the "wisdom of the crowd." Musk has said these services are "more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line." Interactive Brokers and Robinhood also run prediction markets. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told the Motley Fool in April that these types of platforms are "the best way to forecast the future because of this skin in the game aspect. People don't lie when their money is involved." In a video announcing the Kalshi-xAI deal, Grok was shown providing a "Market Summary" of the current odds for a wager on the question: "Will Elon Musk create a new political party this year?" Polymarket and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets, did not return a request for comment on xAI's partnerships with the platforms or any potential conflicts of interest with Musk's AI presenting information on Musk bets. The variety of wager options on the sites is something to behold. You can bet on whether there will be a major meteor strike in 2025 — currently a 16% chance, according to Polymarket — and a range of events from celebrity couple divorces to when Israel will strike Syria. On Monday, a combined $7 million was bet on Kalshi and Polymarket for Astronomer CEO Andy Byron leaving the company after the viral Coldplay kiss cam video. Polymarket burst onto the scene during the 2024 election between President Donald Trump and then-President Joe Biden. The site continued to draw wagers as then-Vice President Kamala Harris entered the contest. The platform flip-flopped favorites between Trump and Harris from August into October, before the odds swung firmly to Trump. In October, four Polymarket accounts tied to one person wagered over $28 million on a Trump win. Trading volume on the presidential race totaled nearly $3.7 billion. "On Polymarket, it looked like a done deal, and if you were just watching TV, you would think it's neck and neck," Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" after the election. Polymarket has been barred from operating in the U.S. since 2022, when it paid the CFTC a $1.4 million penalty to settle charges, but it's on the cusp of opening back up to U.S. users. Earlier this month, the Justice Department and CFTC dropped investigations into the company, and Polymarket acquired derivatives exchange QCX. "A lot of people want peace of mind, or they're anxious and they want to know what's going to happen, Coplan told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday. "That's why they tune into the news. That's why they tune into X. And now that there's this other data point, which is the Polymarket." Coplan said Wednesday that Polymarket was "not profitable."
CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
What the prediction markets are saying about the big Wall Street events ahead
The coming week poses a critical test for the stock market's record-setting run with a number of make-or-break events — the Federal Reserve 's rate decision, July jobs report and President Donald Trump's tariffs deadline. Popular wagers on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket offer an alternative view into how the mainstream thinks things will unfold next week. These markets became established in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election and have been widely used by investors and even Wall Street strategists to gauge the consensus crowd view of a certain event. The S & P 500 has rebounded more than 30% off its low on April 7, reaching consecutive record highs this week after the benchmark closed above 6,300 for the first time. Investors have cheered resilient economic growth and corporate profits even in the face of higher tariffs. Still, next week marks a wild card that could easily derail the bull run. Fed meeting Consistent with the pricing in the futures markets, prediction platform Kalshi is assigning virtually no chance for a rate cut when the Fed meets next week. But the prediction markets do anticipate some drama during the Fed meeting with Powell perhaps losing his grip on the consensus of his peers. Kalshi is pricing in a 82% chance of a dissenting vote against a no-cut decision. Notably, Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller have said they would favor a rate cut in July so long as inflation pressures stay muted. So they could be the two that emerge. Fed Chairman Powell and his fellow policymakers have been reluctant to lower rates as they wait to see the impact that Trump's tariffs have on inflation. Powell has also argued that the economy is strong enough that it can withstand higher rates as officials watch how the data evolves. Powell is likely to address the dramatic meeting with Trump this week about the Fed's building renovation during his press conference following the decision. Traders on the prediction markets are also placing bets on random words that may be uttered by the Fed chief. These words include "credit," "projection" and "median." Jobs report July jobs report next Friday will offer a fresh look at the health of the labor market that has been resilient in the face of Trump's tariffs. Kalshi traders expect a solid jobs report in the Goldilocks range. Kalshi is pricing in a 79% chance that the payroll number will be higher than 100,000, but just an 18% chance that it will be higher than 150,000. The jobless rate has been assigned a 55% likelihood to be above 4.1%. For context, economists polled by FactSet expect that the U.S. economy will have added 115,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to have edged up to 4.2% from 4.1% previously. Aug. 1 tariff deadline The world is bracing for more erratic trade headlines as the Aug. 1 deadline approaches. Trump said Friday there is a 50-50 chance that the U.S. would reach a trade agreement with the European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted on X later Friday that she and Trump have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss trade. The EU is preparing countermeasures in case of a no-deal scenario . The prediction market is pricing in a 53% likelihood of a deal with the EU. As for China, which faces an Aug. 12 deadline to reach a deal, Polymarket assigns an 83% chance that the two countries will come to an agreement.
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Kalshi CEO Talks AI's Impact on Prediction Markets
Kalshi CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour discusses how artificial intelligence is impacting prediction markets and the company's business model on "Bloomberg Open Interest." Kalshi has partnered with xAI, the AI startup founded by Elon Musk, to bring Grok to predictions. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
