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The Guardian
an hour ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Polish presidential candidates neck and neck on eve of runoff vote
Poles will cast their votes on Sunday in the closest presidential runoff since the fall of communism, in an election that pits two different visions of the nation against each other. In Poland's previous election in 2020, the conservative populist incumbent Andrzej Duda narrowly won the second-round vote against the pro-Europe mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, by 51% to 49%. This time it could be even closer. Polls show the difference between Trzaskowski and the nationalist rightwing historian Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by the Law and Justice party (PiS), which ruled Poland from 2015 to 2023, to be within the margin of error. At stake is whether the coalition government led by Donald Tusk, Trzaskowski's political patron, will be able to pursue its progressive agenda or see it further blocked by a critical opposition president armed with the power to veto laws. In Siekierczyn, a rural municipality with 4,265 residents across eight villages in the south-west of Poland, the first round was decided by a single vote, catapulting the hitherto unknown area into the spotlight. 'You probably often heard 'my vote won't change anything'. But look at Siekierczyn,' the winner, Trzaskowski, said in a social media video, rallying voters before the runoff. Noticeboards in the village are plastered with posters of candidates, and the mayor, Dariusz Furdykoń, 48, cherishes the attention that comes with the close result. The area faces challenges with rural revitalisation and energy transition, he says. In 2023, he turned a neglected bathing pond into a colourful outdoor playground; a new sports hall is to open this year. But he worries about depopulation as more people died (46) than were born (26) last year, and younger people leave for cities or seek work in Germany or the Czech Republic. Emotions are running high, he admits. 'These differences come out at the dining table, during first communion, Christmas or Easter. The rift is between older, often less-educated people, and younger ones, who have been out and about,' he says. 'Some are voters, others are believers. But what can you do? You need to talk with them, try to find a way forward.' In the first round, about 60% of residents cast votes. 'But the weather was awful,' Furdykoń says. On Sunday, he hopes to see more come out; the municipality will even run a special bus service to polling stations. In the early afternoon, the sleepy village turns into a hive of political campaigning as a group of Nawrocki voters meet to chat to the conservative TV channel Republika. Standing by their pickup emblazoned with Nawrocki's poster, Henryk, a former councillor, and Janina Wójcik say they want 'a candidate who, however lofty it sounds, serves Poland's interests best'. They feel that 'someone wants to take our freedom, our statehood,' as they worry about plans to create 'a European army' and EU green policies. In contrast, the Donald Trump-backed Nawrocki is a Catholic and will guarantee their state pension payments and free prescriptions, they say. Others rush to point out that Trzaskowski only came first because of a polling station inside a prison, where he won by 77 votes. 'People in the village didn't vote for him; prisoners did. Not something to brag about, is it?' says Teresa Zembik, 62. Her husband, Wojciech, 63, is head of the local PiS branch and he doesn't mince words. Political conflict 'runs through families here', he says. 'These are not just political views, it's a continuation of the war, and Poland is at stake. One group wants to fight for Poland, the other to destroy it in the interests of Russia and Germany.' Sign up to Headlines Europe A digest of the morning's main headlines from the Europe edition emailed direct to you every week day after newsletter promotion As the group crosses the road from the parish church, another man splits from it and tears down a Trzaskowski banner on a nearby house. Its resident Monika misses the drama. When told about the incident by children, she pulls her phone out. 'I will get another one up,' she laughs. She wants a 'tolerant, clean and peaceful Poland' and rejects the dismissive tone about prison voters. 'Folks make mistakes but then make amends. People are people.' Her daughter got her dad to vote for the first time this year. Maybe that won the first round, she wonders. She is not the only one to stake that claim. Picking up children from school, Mariola says her son turned 18 recently and voted for the first time, so it's his vote that swung it for Trzaskowski. 'I want to get reforms going,' she says, pointing to women's rights – 'the right to choose' – in particular. At a local supermarket, two Nawrocki voters, Dominik and Janusz, joke about another neighbour who also says he decided the vote. But they are tired of 'dirty campaign tricks' against their candidate. They shrug off that Nawrocki took part in an organised fight between 140 football hooligans20 years ago (he called it an act of 'noble combat'), and distrust reports he was allegedly involved in procuring sex workers while working as a student security guard at a hotel (a claim he strongly denies). Instead, they focus on the here and now, and want Nawrocki to lower national insurance payments for entrepreneurs. As president he could propose legislation, but he wouldn't have a majority in parliament – at least for now. Despite the fevered atmosphere, there are still some voters who are yet to make up their minds. Wioletta, 44, voted in the first round for the libertarian far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen, who came third, and she doesn't like the remaining candidates. 'But I have to go. I'll decide at the polling station,' she says. Adam, 40, says: 'None of them convinced me yet.' He plans to watch YouTube and read up over the weekend. Aleks Szczerbiak, a professor of politics at the University of Sussex, said it was 'very, very close,' with 5% yet to pick a side. It 'might mean you get … disillusioned government supporters coming out in spite of everything' for Trzaskowski, or older voters who skipped the first round mobilise to back Nawrocki, or see another minor movement that could ultimately decide the result, he said. The diaspora vote could play a role, too, with about 700,000 registered voters abroad, including 185,000 in the UK. Ben Stanley, an associate professor at SWPS University in Warsaw, said: 'The outcome is impossible to predict. There are too many moving parts, and even the slightest change on the day could tip the balance.' For what it's worth, it is expected to rain again in Siekierczyn on Sunday.
LeMonde
7 hours ago
- Politics
- LeMonde
In Poland, the grip of the anti-European far right weighs on the presidential election
On May 18, the results of the first round of the presidential election in Poland – the second round is scheduled for Sunday, June 1 – came as a surprise, even a shock. Not only was the liberal candidate, Rafal Trzaskowski, who had been considered the clear favorite throughout the campaign, trailed by his ultraconservative rival, Karol Nawrocki – with 31.3% and 29.5% of the vote – but the far right achieved a breakthrough not seen since the fall of communism. Slawomir Mentzen, of the nationalist libertarian party Konfederacja, secured 14.8% of the vote, and Grzegorz Braun, an openly antisemitic and homophobic royalist, received 6.3%. The surge was especially dramatic among 18 to 29-year-olds, who turned out in greater numbers than any other age group. Among them, Slawomir Mentzen gathered 35% of the vote, while Adrian Zandberg, the representative of the radical left, got 19% (compared to 4.8% across all voters). Grzegorz Braun recorded 5%. Law and Justice (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, PiS), which backs Karol Nawrocki, has over the years shifted toward unabashed nationalism. As a result, far-right parties collectively garnered nearly 53% of the vote. Among young voters, protest votes totaled 60%, with 40% going to the far right. Should these numbers be seen as the rise of a "brown wave" poised to reshape the political landscape? A closer look suggests the results are more nuanced. Protest vote All studies showed that the electorate of Konfederacja – primarily young and male – is not a monolithic ideological bloc. It is volatile, with protest voting often outweighing ideological considerations. Many voters were drawn to Slawomir Mentzen's ultra-liberal promises ("zero taxes," "minimal state," etc.), overlooking other aspects of his platform. This phenomenon was amplified by an effective social media campaign, where short TikTok videos and punchy messages proved more effective than traditional speeches and TV interviews.
DW
13 hours ago
- Politics
- DW
Presidential runoff in Poland: Why every vote matters – DW – 05/30/2025
Rafal Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki? To many Polish voters, the question isn't about who they want, but who they don't want to see in office. Eva says she's never skipped a Polish election. She's been living in Germany for 40 years, she has a German passport, and she still takes part in every election in Poland. She first came to Germany as a Polish refugee and still has family there. Between 2015 and 2023, when the right-wing nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party was in power, she saw herself as fighting for democracy and the rule of law in Poland. Some 2 million people with Polish roots live in Germany. At least 850,000 of them only have Polish citizenship. Anyone with a Polish passport is eligible to take part in Poland's elections, but only an estimated 80,000 Poles in Germany made use of this right in the first election round that took place two weeks ago. To make use of their voting right, Polish citizens living abroad need to register with the appropriate consulate, where they must show a valid Polish ID or passport. But many Polish migrants in Germany don't have one, and the long journey to the nearest election booth can be daunting. All told, there are 54 election circuits in Germany located in large cities such as Hamburg, Berlin, Cologne, Munich, or Dortmund. That means that many Poles wanting to cast their votes have to travel 200 kilometers (124 miles) or more. There are no absentee ballots. DW asks voters in Warsaw what they are hoping for To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video "To me, voting is a duty that I am happy to fulfill," Eva says. That's why she's joining 112,000 other Poles in Germany as they cast their votes in the upcoming presidential runoff, slated for June 1. By May 27, a quarter more had signed up for this round than had for the last. That's a new record. Karol Nawrocki trailing in Germany The results from the first presidential election indicate that Poles in Germany have different voting preferences than their fellow citizens in Poland. In both countries, voters favored the liberal, pro-European Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. In Germany, this preference was higher, with 40% showing support, versus 31% in Poland. Meanwhile, the nationalist, conservative historian Karol Nawrocki made it to second place in Poland with 29.5% of the vote. In Germany, however, he came in third, behind the far-right firebrand Slawomir Mentzen, who won 18.8% of the vote. In Germany, Karol Nawrocki has less support than he does in Poland Image: Wojtek Radwanski/AFP/Getty Images Nawrocki only scored 14.5% of the vote in Germany — far below the 29.5% backing he received at home. Trzaskowski's victory, on the other hand, came as no surprise. Five years ago, he beat the national conservative and incumbent President Andrzej Duda with 70% of the German vote. In Poland, however, he lost the election. What's surprising is the fact that Mentzen made it to second place in Germany, and third place in Poland. Overall, right-wing candidates brought in good results in Germany. In total, 28% of voters in Germany backed either Mentzen or the far-right, antisemitic lawmaker Grzegorz Braun. In Poland, it was about 22%. Menzten is a member of the hard-right Confederation party. He is a member of the European Parliament, where he shares a faction with the so-called Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which Germany"s federal domestic intelligence suspects to be right-wing extremist. Braun recently lost his parliamentary immunity after he used a fire extinguisher to put out candles lit in the Polish parliament to mark the Jewish holiday Hanukkah, and attacked a woman who tried to stop him. Voters wary of the two-party system Damian — not his real name — is from northern Poland and has worked in construction in Germany for years. He says he voted for Braun because "he knows how to appreciate Polish history. He preserves Polish identity." "Liberals don't care about that," the worker continues. "They want so badly to present themselves as Europeans, that they are making us servile in Brussels." In order to stop this, he says he "definitely" needs to take part in the election. Piotr says he couldn't image not fulfilling his civic duty. The self-proclaimed devout Catholic has a well-paying job in Germany, where he's been living for nearly 40 years. His children, who were born in Germany, only take part in German elections. But Piotr casts his ballot in both German and Polish elections. Piotr backed a right-wing candidate, because, as he says, he's "not part of the system" Image: Martyna Masztalerz/DW "I voted for Mentzen," he says. "He's intelligent and understands economics quite well. And above all, he's got nothing to do with the current system." Agnieszka Lada-Knefal, a political scientist specializing in Polish relations, believes this wariness of "the system" has been a key factor in determining the way many Poles in Germany cast their votes. "You can't simply call the voters who back Braun or Mentzen 'anti-European' or 'antisemitic'," the expert contends. "Above all, they're against the system. They don't want Trzaskowski or Nawrocki, because those two both represent the two-party system that has been in place for years. The emigrated, because they felt disadvantaged in this system. And they don't want to return as long as it's still in place. They want someone new." 'Our AfD' Eva says that people voting for right-wing extremists "are just voting against something." "They live here in Germany, they see the AfD gaining votes, and think to themselves, 'Why shouldn't we vote for "our" AfD?'," Eva explains. She says she's on the other side of the fence. In the past years, she's backed Trzaskowski and the center-right Civic Platform, the party of incumbent Prime Minister Donald Tusk. But in this year's first round of the presidential election, she voted for the social-democratic New Left party, for its pro-women's rights platform. For her, as she puts it, "it was a matter of the heart." Many female voters see no alternative to backing Rafal Trzaskowski Image: Martyna Masztalerz/DW Eva knew her candidate didn't stand a chance to win the election. Instead, she says she wanted to use her voice to back issues and demands that many Polish women care about — and to send a signal to Trzaskowski. She's convinced the liberal candidate will win the runoff. That's the only way Prime Minister Tusk's current government coalition could push through reforms that President Duda is currently blocking. Eva is certain she know who to back in the runoff. And she's not the only one. Every vote counts In front of a Polish church in southern Berlin, we meet another woman, much like Eva, on her way to mass. "All my Polish girlfriends agree," she says. "Rafal Trzaskowski is the only option. Who else?" Religion doesn't play a role, she adds. "Most Poles in Germany are progressive, open-minded and pro-European," Lada-Konefal explains. "To people like this, Trzaskowski is the candidate who guarantees that Poland will also move in this direction." Opinion polls see both remaining candidates neck-and-neck in the runoff. Every single vote could tip the scale. To many Polish voters, no matter whether in Germany or elsewhere, the election on Sunday is not so much about who they want, but who they don't want to see in office. Like choosing between the "lesser of two evils." Rafal Trzakowski won the first presidential election round by a thin margin Image: Kacper Pempel/REUTERS Dana agrees. She fled to Germany after the LGBTQ+ community increasingly came under attack while the PiS party was in power. "In the first round, I voted for the candidate from the Left, because only the Left party takes people like us seriously and advocates for us," she says. "On Sunday, I'll be voting for Trzaskowski, because he's not as bad as Nawrocki." She chooses her next words carefully. "The election won't do any good for us queer people, anway," she says. But a president from the PiS party could spell disaster for her community, she adds. Piotr, who would have preferred to see his right-wing candidate Mentzen in office, agrees that the upcoming runoff is about selecting the least bad option. "As long as it's not Trzaskowski," he adds. "His views change too often One day, he's Catholic, and another he's supporting the LGBT-movement. One day he's waving a Polish flag, and the next, it's a European flag, or even a rainbow flag. I just don't get it," the Polish voter explains. "Nawrocki is getting my vote." This article was translated from German.
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First Post
14 hours ago
- Politics
- First Post
Poland presidential election: Can Trump decide Maga vs mayor battle in Warsaw?
Poland heads to the polls this Sunday in a fiercely contested presidential race between pro-EU centrist Rafał Trzaskowski and MAGA-aligned populist Karol Nawrocki. With global stakes and domestic divisions at play, the election could reshape Poland's future and Europe's. Trump's backing of Nawrocki adds a dramatic twist to this East-West ideological showdown. read more Karol Nawrocki, front, the conservative candidate heading into the second round of Poland's presidential election, meets with union members in Warsaw, Poland, on Tuesday, May 20, 2025. (AP Photo) Poland is bracing for a pivotal presidential election on Sunday that has become a symbolic clash between pro-European centrism and MAGA-style populism. In a nail-biting race that could reshape Poland's domestic and international trajectory, the centrist mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski is locked in a dead heat with the right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki. A Politico poll released earlier this week shows the race on a razor's edge, with Trzaskowski narrowly ahead by a single point—47% to Nawrocki's 46%. While the margin is statistically insignificant, the stakes are anything but. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD At the heart of this contest is a broader ideological battle that reaches well beyond Poland's borders. Trzaskowski, a liberal-leaning figure and key ally of center-right Prime Minister Donald Tusk, represents continuity with Tusk's Brussels-friendly agenda. Nawrocki, by contrast, is a newcomer to electoral politics and the preferred candidate of Poland's conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), now clinging to its last major lever of power. The presidency, largely ceremonial on paper, plays an outsized role in practice. The current president, Andrzej Duda also aligned with PiS has wielded his veto power repeatedly to block legislation from the Tusk government, especially reforms aimed at restoring judicial independence and repairing ties with the European Union. Trzaskowski's victory would likely end this stalemate, paving the way for deeper EU integration and institutional overhaul. Nawrocki, a historian by profession, has become the de facto torchbearer for Poland's populist right. His campaign has championed nationalist rhetoric, traditionalist values, and a strong stance against immigration, rhetoric that has increasingly echoed the playbook of Donald Trump. That resemblance was made explicit this week when Kristi Noem, Trump's former Homeland Security chief and a key surrogate in Europe, visited Poland to endorse Nawrocki. 'Electing the right leader here ensures a strong American presence,' Noem said, invoking 'Fort Trump'—a symbolic and potentially permanent U.S. military base in Poland—as a bulwark against Russian aggression. 'This election is about security, sovereignty, and strength,' she declared. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Her remarks were interpreted by many as a direct attempt by Trump's orbit to influence the Polish vote. In return, Nawrocki has signaled enthusiastic alignment with Trump's worldview, pledging to be a 'reliable transatlantic partner' while resisting EU overreach. Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has framed the election as a referendum on Poland's future as a liberal democracy. 'We can either move forward with a modern, democratic Poland that plays a strong role in Europe, or return to isolation and division,' he told supporters during his final campaign rally in Warsaw. For Trzaskowski, the race also carries personal significance. He came within a whisker of winning the presidency in 2020, losing narrowly to Duda. Now, with Duda term-limited and the political winds shifting, this is his second—and perhaps last—chance. The outcome could determine not just the future of Polish politics but the balance of power in Europe. A win for Trzaskowski would mark a decisive turn toward the EU and liberal democratic values. A Nawrocki victory, on the other hand, would entrench a right-wing nationalist presidency, even as PiS's parliamentary grip has slipped. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD As voters head to the polls, the question looms large: Can Donald Trump's influence tip the scales in Warsaw? In a nation torn between westward ambition and populist nostalgia, the answer may reverberate far beyond Poland's borders.
Straits Times
18 hours ago
- Politics
- Straits Times
Punch-ups and tobacco pouches: Polish presidential race gets personal
Poland's conservative presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, center, arrives at the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC, in Jasionka, Poland, May 27, 2025. Alex Brandon/Pool via REUTERS Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, Civic Coalition presidential candidate, offers strawberries to media representatives during a visit to the Weglewski farm, ahead of the second round of Polish presidential election, in Buczek, May 29, 2025. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel Election banners of Karol Nawrocki, a candidate for Polish presidential election supported by Poland's main opposition party Law and Justice (PiS), and Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, Civic Coalition presidential candidate, are seen ahead of the second round of Polish presidential election, in Pabianice, May 29, 2025. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel WARSAW - The centrist frontrunner in Poland's knife-edge presidential election on Sunday says Poles know everything about him, contrasting that with the slew of media reports about his nationalist opponent's alleged past conduct. "The President of the Republic of Poland cannot be someone about whom we learn something every day that not only puzzles us, but often terrifies us," Rafal Trzaskowski, from the ruling Civic Coalition, told a rally in the southern Polish town of Chrzanow on Tuesday. The past of opposition Law and Justice-backed candidate Karol Nawrocki has dominated public debate - be it questions over his acquisition of a flat from a pensioner or an admission that he took part in orchestrated brawls. "All my sports activities were based on the strength of my heart, the strength of my muscles, my fists," Nawrocki, a historian and amateur boxer, told a debate when confronted over reports he had been involved in mass organised fights between football hooligans. "It was a fair competition, regardless of the form." He had previously denied wrongdoing in relation to accusations that he lied about owning the flat, a second property, and that he had acquired it from the elderly man in return for a promise of care which he did not provide. After questioning about the issue, he said he would give the flat to charity, dismissing what he called "media lies". Nawrocki also faced criticism for inserting a 'snus' tobacco pouch under his lip during a live debate, with an Opinia24 survey for private broadcaster TVN showing that 53% of respondents viewed this negatively. His Law and Justice party backers have accused the government of orchestrating the controversies with the help of Poland's special services and liberal media. The government rejects these accusations. Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has faced questions over whether a series of advertisements criticising his opponents subverted campaign spending rules. He also denies any wrongdoing. If he wins, the Polish government will be able to continue reforms to bring it into line with European Union norms on issues like judicial independence and LGBT rights. If Nawrocki wins, he is likely to use his veto, as the current president has done, to block them, arguing that Poland should take a conservative path inspired by the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. POLL NUMBERS Despite the stream of negative coverage, Nawrocki's polling numbers appear largely unscathed, with Trzaskowski's lead within the margin of error. A survey by CBOS showed that 99% of people who voted for Nawrocki in the first round would also back him in the second. Andrzej Rychard, a sociologist from the Polish Academy of Science, said that the deep polarisation in Polish politics meant that many Law and Justice voters dismissed the allegations as untrue or decided that "even if it is true, it still does not bother me". Added to this Rychard said that Nawrocki had projected an image of himself as someone from a humble background who can get things done. "He comes rather from the bottom, that is, from difficult environments, which does not necessarily have to be a source of antipathy, on the contrary, it may be well-received by a large part of the electorate, who do not identify with the elite." Nawrocki's campaign say that Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski is an out-of-touch metropolitan liberal who doesn't understand ordinary Poles. They have mocked his fluency in five foreign languages, nicknaming him 'Bazur', a Polonised transcription of the French word 'bonjour'. For Trzaskowski's supporters, meanwhile, the allegations about Nawrocki make him completely unsuitable for the nation's highest office. "He has no idea about politics," said 68-year-old market trader Stanislaw, who declined to give his surname and repeated some of the allegations in the media reports to show why he did not trust him. Jacek, a 73-year-old pensioner who also declined to give his surname, took a different view. "He is a patriot, kind to people, an honest person, a strong person, which is exactly what we are missing," he said. Asked about Nawrocki's involvement in fights, he said "young people do those kinds of things". REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
