Latest news with #Karoly
Time Out
a day ago
- Climate
- Time Out
Australia's ski seasons are melting away – and could disappear completely by 2050
Reporting live from Sydney, I can confirm that winter is well and truly here. The actual temperature currently reads a drizzly 12 degrees, but my weather app says it 'feels like' a frosty four – which justifies me busting out my puffer jacket for its seasonal debut. But while the chill is real, it's not all snowflakes and rainbows – especially for Australia's ski fields. The past two winters have been incredibly disappointing for snow enthusiasts, with warm temperatures delaying the start of the season and rainy weather forcing Australia's top ski resorts to shut early. In fact, 2023 and 2024 were the hottest Aussie winters in history – and with more above-average temperatures on the horizon, things aren't looking good for our ski fields. What to expect for Australia's 2025 snow season? The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has forecast unusually high daytime temperatures across southern and eastern Australia, right where our ski fields sit. David Karoly, Professor Emeritus at the University of Melbourne and Councillor at Climate Council of Australia, says, 'We can also expect warmer-than-average nights, which makes it hard for snow to form and settle. It also means fewer nights with good conditions for snow-making overnight.' While the BoM predicts rainfall will return to normal following droughts in southeastern Australia, above-average temperatures could see precipitation in the mountains fall as rain, not snow, melting the existing snow base faster or washing it away entirely. Professor Karoly warns that this trend will continue in the years to come, "We have had declines of maximum snow depth and decreasing season length at Australian ski resorts reported for over 30 years… The declines are greatest at lower elevation resorts and on lower elevation slopes, where the temperatures are higher and the melting is faster.' Can artificial snow save Australia's ski industry? Australia's ski fields have become increasingly reliant on machine-made snow, with all Aussie ski resorts except Mount Stirling currently using some level of snowmaking to improve the quality and length of the season. While it's a temporary fix, experts warn artificial snow is not a sustainable solution – for two main reasons. Firstly, the climatic conditions required to produce the snow are becoming less reliable due to climate change. Artificial snow only works when it's cold enough that the snow doesn't melt, when there's enough humidity in the air and when there's lots of water – something that's becoming increasingly scarce in the southern Alps. On top of that, there are significant water and electricity costs associated with snowmaking. For perspective, covering the equivalent of an AFL stadium would require 1 million litres of water, with billions invested in machine-made snow across the country. Are Australia's ski resorts at risk of closing for good? The sad reality is that Australia's ski resorts won't be economically viable if they depend on natural snowfall alone. Dr Lily O'Neill, Director of Protect Our Winters Australia, explains, 'Future generations of Australians will know skiing, but not to the same extent as we do today. The more we get on with cutting climate pollution, largely by continuing to move away from the burning of fossil fuels like coal and gas, the better chance future generations will have at experiencing skiing here at home.' What will Australia's snow seasons look like in 2050? According to Our Changing Snowscapes – an Australian-first report exploring climate change's impacts on the Australian Alps – there may be no reliable ski areas left in Australia by 2050. Ski seasons are forecast to shrink by between 44 and 55 days (42 to 52 per cent), and the amount of machine-made snow needed to sustain a 100-day ski season (the minimum days for a ski field to remain viable) is predicted to increase by 71 to 98 per cent in the 2050s. However, we're not giving up all hope just yet. Dr O'Neill adds, 'Enjoying ski seasons later into this century should still be possible if the Albanese government takes action to keep us in a low emissions scenario, particularly for higher-altitude resorts, like Hotham and Thredbo.' Those that are at lower altitudes are particularly vulnerable and already feeling the impacts of climate pollution, and planned adaptation needs to start happening now in these communities.' Dr O'Neill is also calling for more year-round investment to help ski resorts diversify beyond snow activities. Professor Karoly agrees, 'Tourism operators may be able to adapt by switching to promoting other activities in spring and summer, such as mountain walking, horse riding and trail biking.' You can see what's in store for Australia's snow seasons and what's needed to protect them by reading the full report here.
The Advertiser
4 days ago
- Climate
- The Advertiser
Slushy start: warmer winter a downer for ski slopes
The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season. Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs yet the Bureau of Meteorology's predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts. Yet the University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter. Weatherzone further described conditions as "unfavourable" early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months. For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture. Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead. BOM's long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas. Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations. "The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow," he told AAP. "And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons." Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm. Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base. Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario. The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk. Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O'Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were "profoundly upset" by shortening snow seasons. "The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change," she told AAP. Ms O'Neill said Australia's snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report. The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season. Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs yet the Bureau of Meteorology's predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts. Yet the University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter. Weatherzone further described conditions as "unfavourable" early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months. For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture. Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead. BOM's long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas. Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations. "The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow," he told AAP. "And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons." Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm. Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base. Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario. The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk. Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O'Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were "profoundly upset" by shortening snow seasons. "The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change," she told AAP. Ms O'Neill said Australia's snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report. The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season. Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs yet the Bureau of Meteorology's predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts. Yet the University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter. Weatherzone further described conditions as "unfavourable" early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months. For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture. Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead. BOM's long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas. Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations. "The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow," he told AAP. "And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons." Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm. Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base. Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario. The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk. Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O'Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were "profoundly upset" by shortening snow seasons. "The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change," she told AAP. Ms O'Neill said Australia's snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report. The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season. Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs yet the Bureau of Meteorology's predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts. Yet the University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter. Weatherzone further described conditions as "unfavourable" early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months. For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture. Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead. BOM's long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas. Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations. "The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow," he told AAP. "And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons." Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm. Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base. Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario. The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk. Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O'Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were "profoundly upset" by shortening snow seasons. "The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change," she told AAP. Ms O'Neill said Australia's snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report.
Otago Daily Times
4 days ago
- Climate
- Otago Daily Times
Warmer winter a downer for Aussie ski slopes
The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season. Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs, yet the Bureau of Meteorology's predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts. However, University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter. Weatherzone further described conditions as "unfavourable" early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months. For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture. Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead. BOM's long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas. Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations. "The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow," he told AAP. "And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons." Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm. Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base. Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario. The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk. Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O'Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were "profoundly upset" by shortening snow seasons. "The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change," she told AAP. Ms O'Neill said Australia's snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report.
Perth Now
4 days ago
- Climate
- Perth Now
Slushy start: warmer winter a downer for ski slopes
The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season. Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs yet the Bureau of Meteorology's predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts. Yet the University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter. Weatherzone further described conditions as "unfavourable" early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months. For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture. Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead. BOM's long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas. Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations. "The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow," he told AAP. "And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons." Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm. Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base. Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario. The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk. Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O'Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were "profoundly upset" by shortening snow seasons. "The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change," she told AAP. Ms O'Neill said Australia's snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report.
West Australian
4 days ago
- Climate
- West Australian
Slushy start: warmer winter a downer for ski slopes
The first dustings of winter snow have arrived on Australian mountaintops but long-range weather forecasts suggest it could be slow start to the ski season. Skiers and boarders ideally want a solid base of snow covering rocks and shrubs yet the Bureau of Meteorology's predictions of ongoing above-average temperatures could delay big dumps on the mainland resorts. Yet the University of Melbourne climate scientist Professor David Karoly said forecasts of above-average rainfall for cooler temperatures could lead to more snow overall this winter. Weatherzone further described conditions as "unfavourable" early in the season, due to start officially on June 7, before improving in later months. For snow to settle, it needs low-enough temperatures and adequate moisture. Prof Karoly said there was a lot of guesswork in forecasting rain or snow several months ahead. BOM's long-range forecasts do include estimates of precipitation but no specific outlook for the Kosciuszko and Victorian alpine areas. Yet Prof Karoly said climate change was having a clear impact on longer-term trends, already cutting snow seasons short and thinning coverage, particularly at lower elevations. "The snow season depends often on getting a base of snow and then repeated, if you like, big dumps of snow," he told AAP. "And unfortunately, for much of the last 10 to 15 years, there have been fewer-than-normal big dumps of snow, which means there has been relatively poor snow seasons." Snow-making is challenged by higher overnight temperatures, he added, and is less likely to stick around if days stay warm. Extra rainfall in warmer conditions then serves to wash away the snow cover base. Last year, an Australian National University report found the average ski season across Australian resorts could be 44 days shorter by 2025 under a mid-emissions scenario. The study, commissioned by climate advocacy group Protect our Winters Australia, was not isolated to ski tourism and found climate change was harming fragile high country ecosystems, putting unique species like Pygmy-possums at risk. Protect our Winters Australia director Lily O'Neill, who lives 30 minutes from the mountains, said her two sons were "profoundly upset" by shortening snow seasons. "The mountains are massively at threat right now from climate change," she told AAP. Ms O'Neill said Australia's snowy landscapes could recover if greenhouse gas emissions were reduced rapidly, as highlighted in the 2024 ANU report.
