Latest news with #Katrina
Yahoo
31 minutes ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
Conditions are primed for a fierce hurricane season. Here's what Floridians can expect
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Another potentially dangerous hurricane season officially begins Sunday and with forecasters calling for an 'above-average' number of storms, Floridians should have their initial preparations in place soon. We can expect an above-average season over the next six months due to many factors, including hot Atlantic ocean temperatures. It'll be the latest busy season: Last year, Hurricane Helene became the most deadly U.S. hurricane since Katrina, and Hurricane Milton spawned some 43 tornadoes across the state. Floridians must stay vigilant: Our 8,000-mile-plus coast makes us a big target, and the storm-surge death rate is particularly high here. This year, the National Hurricane Center is rolling out new forecast tools to help the public prepare. As the season officially begins this weekend and lasts for six months, here's everything you need to know. This hurricane season is expected to bring more named storms as well as more hurricanes and major hurricanes. As for the odds, there's a 60% chance of an above-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is calling for 13 to 19 named storms, with sustained winds of 39 mph or more. Colorado State University predicted 17 named storms in its annual spring hurricane outlook. Last year had 18. The average from 1991 to 2020 was 14. Six to 10 of those named storms likely will become hurricanes, with maximum sustained surface winds of 74 mph or greater, NOAA said. Last year had 11 hurricanes (the average year has seven), five of which made landfall in the continental U.S., resulting in 297 deaths. NOAA expects three to five major hurricanes, meaning they'll be Category 3 or above with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. CSU hurricane researchers predicted that the 2025 hurricane season will be about 25% more active than the average season. Last season's hurricane season was about 30% more active than the average season. Graham said that three factors inform the forecast: Warm sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin, a lack of wind shear over the region, and a forecast for strong African monsoons, which can roll off the continent and fuel tropical storms once over the Atlantic. 'Everything is in place for an above-average season,' Graham said. The heat behind the forecast: Above-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are primary factors for this year's storm season, according to researchers at Colorado State University. Matt Rosencrans, of the National Hurricane Center, said that sea-surface temperatures right now are about as warm as they usually are in late June. But last year at this time they were as warm as they normally would be in August. Hotter-than-normal, sea-surface temperatures work in two ways, according to the researchers. First, they generally fuel hurricane formation. Secondly, when spring sea-surface temperatures are high in the eastern Atlantic, as they are now, it tends to mean weaker trade winds across the Atlantic. Flat, calm water heats up faster — above-average water temperatures will likely continue for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season. 'Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation,' the report said. La Niña and El Niño impacts: NOAA and CSU forecasters also point to a lack of El Niño as being conducive to storms. El Niños usually ramp up wind shear, which can cripple storms. 'Given the combined hurricane-favorable signals of a warm Atlantic and the unlikelihood of El Niño, the CSU forecast team is predicting an above-normal season,' a report said. Since the 1990s, we've been in a 'high-activity era' for hurricanes, said Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center. The background conditions that have driven that trend are warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures. Florida accounted for 410 of the 660 hurricane-related deaths in the U.S. since 2017. As a peninsula with 8,436 miles of shoreline, second only to Alaska, we're a big target. The fatality stats have motivated NOAA to focus on water hazards as much as wind. Nationally, water, both freshwater flooding and saltwater storm surge, has been responsible for 63% of the direct fatalities from hurricanes in the past decade, said Brennan. Wind accounts for only about 20%. Surf and rip currents account for 11%. But Florida is different. Almost half of the direct fatalities are from storm surge. In 2017, NOAA introduced storm-surge warnings. Post-storm indirect deaths, which are nearly as high as direct deaths and affect the elderly more than other groups, stem from car accidents, lack of medical access, recovery accidents, cardiac arrest, heat fatalities and carbon monoxide poisoning from faulty generator use. The National Hurricane Center is rolling out some new forecast features, and making an experimental map operational. Experimental map: Last year it rolled out an experimental, more detailed version of the cone graphic. The detailed version shows inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, because destruction is not limited to the coast. An example of how the detailed version works played out last year when, during Hurricane Helene, nearly the entire state of Florida was covered by hurricane and tropical storm warnings and a hurricane warning that extended hundreds of miles into Georgia. It turned out to be the deadliest U.S. hurricane since Katrina. Rip current risk map: NOAA's National Hurricane Center also is debuting a rip current risk viewer map. Florida has had the most rip current-related deaths of any state since 2013, in part because storms off the east coast can create dangerous swells 1,000 miles away on Florida's beaches, said Brennan. Deadly rip currents on Florida's east coast can occur on an otherwise nice day, he said. Longer lead times: The National Hurricane Center also is offering forecasts with longer lead times. Previously, potential tropical cyclone advisories were released 48 hours prior to expected arrival of impacts. The lead time will now be 72 hours. This means longer lead times when forecasters feel confident that wind and storm surge will significantly impact land areas. A potential tropical cyclone is a disturbance that is not yet a tropical storm with sustained winds of 39 mph or greater, but it's strong enough to bring tropical storm and hurricane conditions to land areas. Heat risk: Post-storm deaths can be driven by the combination of hot weather and lack of air conditioning, especially for the elderly. The National Hurricane Center also is launching post-storm heat risk maps that integrate heat forecasts with potential for power loss. Robert Molleda of the NWS's Miami office reminded the public that watches and warnings are more effective than merely concerning oneself with the cone. He said that with storm surge and hurricanes, a watch means hurricane conditions and life-threatening surge are possible within 48 hours. A warning means they are expected within 36 hours. He mentioned that last year, Hurricane Milton, which made landfall on Florida's west coast, spun up 43 known tornadoes, many of which were on the east coast. He said the front right-hand side of a hurricane is where tornadoes can form, even if the eye is 100 or 200 miles away. Any tropical system can cause tornadoes, even weak and disorganized ones. At a hurricane preparedness meeting, Chuck Lanza, director of Broward county office of emergency management, outlined how to make a family emergency plan: —Choose a safe place to meet. —Learn evacuation routes now. —Evacuation does not mean driving upstate, he said. 'You don't have to leave the county, you just have to leave the evacuation zone.' —Establish an out-of-town contact. —Talk to children about what to do before, during and after an emergency. —Make plans for pets. Be prepared to show proof of rabies vaccination for cats and dogs at Broward County shelters, and bring a pet crate if you have one. —Inventory your home with video and photos. Make paper copies of important documents such as birth certificates and insurance policies. —Everyone should have food, water and emergency supplies to last three to five days without power. —You can sign up for Broward County emergency alerts at —If you have questions, call the Broward call center at 311. Graham, of the National Weather Service, encouraged people to take hurricanes seriously. 'There's no such thing as just a Cat 1, just a Cat 2 storm,' he said. 'Even a small storm is a danger.' Now is a good time to prepare for hurricane season, he said. 'There are no lines today.' Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., who recently held a hurricane preparedness meeting in Hallandale Beach, said, 'People absolutely must get ready in advance of the start of hurricane season. You should have your go-kits ready, you should have your 72 hours, really up to a week's worth of supplies already stocked in your home. … Don't wait. That's the bottom line.' Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
New York Post
7 hours ago
- Politics
- New York Post
Meet the ‘anti-Greta Thunberg' weather nerd debunking climate myths and skewering the extremist elder statesmen
CHARLES TOWN, West Virginia — Chris Martz was still in diapers when Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2005 — but that moment, he says, kicked off the political indoctrination of 'extreme weather events.' Now the 22-year-old freshly minted college grad has decided to make it his life's mission to lower the temperature on climate hysteria. 'I'm the anti-Greta Thunberg. In fact, she's only 19 days older than me,' Martz tells The Post, barely a week out from receiving his undergraduate degree in meteorology from Pennsylvania's Millersville University. Unlike the Swedish climate poster child turned Gaza groupie, Martz tackles the incomprehensibly complex subject of Earth's ever-changing climate with reason and data, rather than alarmists' emotional outbursts and empty, disruptive antics — or the increasingly mystical theories of left-wing academics. 5 Chris Martz calls himself 'the anti-Greta Thunberg.: Samuel Corum / NY Post 'I've always been a science-based, fact-based person,' Martz says over lunch near his small-town Virginia home. 'My dad always said, 'If you're going to put something online, especially getting into a scientific or political topic, make sure what you're saying is accurate. That way you establish a good credibility and rapport with your followers.'' 5 Greta Thunberg, here at a 2024 Stockholm protest, made her name as a climate scold. He started tweeting about the weather in high school and has amassed more than 100,000 followers, including, increasingly, powerful people in government. Republican Sens. Ted Cruz and Mike Lee and Reps. Chip Roy and Thomas Massie have shared Martz's posts examining weather patterns with fair-mindedness. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis paraphrased a Martz tweet last year when he shot back at a hostile reporter who tried to link Hurricane Milton to global warming. DeSantis noted that since 1851 there had been 27 storms stronger than Milton (17 before 1950) when they made landfall in Florida, with the most deadly occurring in the 1930s. 'It was word-for-word my post,' Martz says. 'His team follows me.' 5 Gov. DeSantis used a Martz tweet to slap back at a reporter last year. Fox News Trump first-term Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Andrew Wheeler invited Martz to lunch two weeks ago in Washington, DC, where the two discussed Martz's future and his experience as a college contrarian. Hollywood celebrities have also taken a liking to the weather wunderkind. Martz brought his parents this year to dinner with Superman actor Dean Cain in Las Vegas. And in May, comic Larry the Cable Guy invited Martz backstage to meet after a show in Shippensburg, Penn. 'They didn't have to be as nice as they were. They just treated me like I was their next-of-kin,' Martz says of his new celebrity friends. 5 Dean Cain invited Martz to dinner in Las Vegas. Masters of Illusion, LLC The son of an auto-mechanic father and a mother who works in water science for the federal government, Martz grew up near Berryville, Va. (pop. 4,574), where he still lives. His interest in meteorology started in childhood but not for the usual reasons — say, a fascination with tornados or love of winter storms. But from a young age, Martz suspected his teachers and the media were lying to him, and that unleashed a storm of righteous indignation and a quest for truth. It started Christmas Eve 2015 when 12-year-old Martz was sweating in church. An outside thermometer read 75 degrees. It was a rare December heat wave, and the media were catastrophizing about global warming. Martz became stricken with paranoia over our boiling planet's future. 'Everyone seems to remember white Christmases when they were a kid, but the data doesn't back that up. It may be that we're remembering all the movies where it snows at Christmas,' he says. 'And I had science teachers telling me New York City was going to be under water in 20 years and that fossil fuels are destroying the environment.' But just a couple weeks after that December heat wave, a blizzard slammed the eastern United States, dumping record snowfall on his Virginia town. He wondered: What was really going on? Then Hurricane Harvey devastated Houston in 2017, and the media again blamed man-made climate change. Martz dug into the data and was shocked to learn there'd been a hurricane drought in America in the preceding 12 years, from 2005 to 2017, the longest period on record — dating back to George Washington's time — that a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm had failed to make landfall. In fact, many of the most powerful storms to hit the United States, he learned, occurred before the 1930s. 5 Martz's tweets have some powerful fans in government. Chris Martz / X Today, Martz calls himself a 'lukewarm skeptic.' While he does believe the Earth may be warming and human activity may contribute, natural variation remains the more likely culprit for changes in climate, and doomsday predictions are fueling unnecessary hysteria with a political motive. Martz instead looks at physical measurements to assess what's happening with Earth's climate. Catastrophic climate models that are so fashionable in academia can be manipulated to say whatever you want, he says. 'Models are not evidence.' 'You can make the case we've seen heavier rainfall in the eastern United States, but it all depends on where you start the graph,' Martz says. 'Since 1979, there's been an eastward shift in Tornado Alley. Okay, that's evidence of climate change. That's not evidence that humans caused it. 'A lot of the biggest tornado outbreaks during the 1920s and '30s occurred in the southeastern United States, where we see them today. Whereas in the 1950s and '60s they occurred more in the Great Plains,' he explains. 'So it's likely that it oscillates due to changes in ocean circulation patterns and how that affects the placement of pressure systems and where moisture convergence is and wind shear is and how those dynamics play out. It's much more likely an artifact of natural variability. 'There's no physical mechanism that makes sense to say, well, if you add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere that it's going to cause an eastward shift of tornadoes in the United States.' As hurricanes have failed to become more frequent or powerful, the media has glommed on to wildfires as the climate emergency du jour. Even the Trump administration's states in the aftermath of this year's Los Angeles Palisades fire: 'Scientists widely agree that human-caused warming is generally making fires in California and the rest of the West larger and more severe.' Martz counters this. 'California has been getting drier in the last 100 years or so,' he says. 'However, in the geological past, it's been much drier in California. Between 900 and 1300 AD, there was a 400-year-long drought that was worse than today's in the southwestern United States.' Blaming Big Oil is much easier than blaming themselves, Martz says of California's politicians, insisting many of the state's fires could be avoided if powerlines were placed underground, instead of on dry hillsides where downsloping winds snap transmission lines (a likely cause of January's fires, he says), and if the state had better forest management. 'It's all a giant money-making scheme,' Martz tells The Post. 'Politicians and bureaucrats latch on to scientific issues, whether it was the pandemic, for example, or climate, to try and get certain policies implemented. In usual cases, it's a left-wing, authoritarian kind of control. 'We want to control what kind of energy you use, control the kind of appliances you can buy, how much you can travel, what you can drive, what you can eat, all that. But in order to do that, they need scientists telling a certain message. And the science is funded by government actors.' Martz himself gets accused of having nefarious backers, namely Big Oil, which he finds laughable as just a college kid with a Twitter account. He works part-time as a research assistant for the DC-based nonprofit Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, which advocates for free-market energy solutions, and insists it hasn't taken money from the fossil-fuel industry for nearly two decades. That hasn't stopped angry climate cultists from trying to ruin his life. 'For my last three years of college, there were endless phone calls, emails sent to the provost, the president, trying to get me kicked out. They'd have department meetings about me. Thankfully, my professors had my back,' he says. For all his detractors, Martz remains in good company. The meteorologist founders of both The Weather Channel and AccuWeather have been known to push back against the left's climate-change voodoo, along with prominent climatologists like Judith Curry, Roy Spencer and John Christy. But Martz thinks his youth makes him particularly threatening to the established order. 'They don't seem to realize yet that cancel culture doesn't work anymore,' he says. 'They're getting angry because they're losing their grip on the narrative. They're getting desperate to try to stop anyone who is making a difference.'
San Francisco Chronicle
7 hours ago
- Climate
- San Francisco Chronicle
Turmoil, worry swirl over cuts to key federal agencies as hurricane season begins
WASHINGTON (AP) — With predictions for a busy hurricane season beginning Sunday, experts in storms and disasters are worried about something potentially as chaotic as the swirling winds: Massive cuts to the federal system that forecasts, tracks and responds to hurricanes. Experts are alarmed over the large-scale staff reductions, travel and training restrictions and grant cut-offs since President Donald Trump took office at both the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which prepares for and responds to hurricanes, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which tracks and forecasts them. 'My nightmare is a major catastrophic storm hitting an area that is reeling from the impact of all of this nonsense from the Trump administration and people will die. And that could happen in Florida, that could happen in Texas, that could happen in South Carolina,' said Susan Cutter, the director of the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute at the University of South Carolina. Representatives of both NOAA and FEMA say the agencies are prepared. Experts: DOGE cuts diminish FEMA About 2,000 full-time staff have left FEMA since Trump took office in January, a loss of roughly one-third of the agency's full-time workforce, amid Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) mandated cuts. Scholars who study emergency management are concerned by both the reduction in capacity and the 'brain drain' of experienced staff. 'There's really been a brain drain within FEMA in addition to the loss of overall employees,' said Samantha Montano, who teaches emergency management at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy. She noted that many who left were in critical management positions. The agency is run by an acting chief, David Richardson, a former Marine Corps officer who served overseas and worked as the Department of Homeland Security's assistant secretary for countering weapons of mass destruction. He does not appear to have any experience in managing disasters. Emergency management requires knowing where to get things, who to call, how things work and how to get it done quickly — which comes from experience and establishing relationships with state officials, Montano and Cutter said. What's happening reminds former Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Craig Fugate of 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina devastated Louisiana and exposed inexperienced and poorly prepared governments at all levels, especially the then-FEMA chief who came from a horse-rearing association. Fugate said he's especially worried about top experienced disaster people leaving FEMA. FEMA canceled various emergency management trainings this spring, moved others online and restricted travel to events such as the National Hurricane Conference. Some trainings have resumed. 'Given the reduction in staffing, being unable to do trainings, participate in conferences, there's potential that the federal government's ability is diminished,'' said former Florida Emergency Management chief Bryan Koon, now president of the disaster preparedness firm IEM. FEMA has also cut disaster resilience programs. Making areas more survivable saves up to $13 for every dollar spent, said Lori Peek, director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado. The federal government promises to be ready for hurricane season, which runs through November. 'FEMA is shifting from bloated DC-centric dead weight to a lean, deployable disaster force that empowers state actors to provide relief for their citizens,' Associate FEMA Administrator Geoff Harbaugh said in a email. 'FEMA is fully activated in preparation for hurricane season.' FEMA's relationship with states Richardson promised to push more responsibilities to the states. He warned that the agency will only do what the law requires and shift more costs to states. But Koon noted that states haven't budgeted for FEMA's changes, adding: "The biggest issue right now is just the uncertainty.' Some states — which coordinate disaster operations — are experienced in catastrophes, have well trained staff and will do fine, such as Texas and Florida, Fugate said. But it's the poorer states that worry the experts. The feds often pick up the entire bill in big disasters and most of it in smaller ones. In the Trump administration, disaster declarations have been denied or delayed. When disaster declarations were issued for nine states last week, some had been pending for two months and others were only partially approved. 'We've just relied on FEMA for so much for so long and not knowing who's going to fill the gap and how we're going to fill it is really scary," said University at Albany emergency management professor Jeannette Sutton. Hurricane center dodges NOAA cuts NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, has undergone a series of dramatic job cuts, with some people then reinstated. A sizable chunk of the weather service's 121 local field offices as of late March had vacancy rates of more than 20%, what's seen by outsiders as a critical level of understaffing. Local weather offices are crucial in helping people translate national warnings into what to do locally. 'It should be all hands on deck and we're being hollowed out," former NWS director Louis Uccellini said. But the National Hurricane Center, which tracks and warns of hurricanes in the Atlantic, Pacific and Caribbean, has been spared. Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham and National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said the agency is prepared for the season with the Miami-based storm center fully staffed and so are the planes that fly into storms. For the first time this year, the hurricane center will incorporate artificial intelligence into forecasting because it has shown to improve predictions generally, Brennan said. 'Our services have never been better,' Graham said. 'Our ability to serve this country has never been better. And it will be this year as well.' But beyond the hurricane center, weather balloons launches have been curtailed because of lack of staffing. In some places, balloon launches have dropped from twice a day to once a day. NOAA hopes to get more balloons launched if needed, Brennan said. Data from the balloons is crucial for understanding steering currents and needed for forecasts, Uccellini said. He said when hurricanes threatened during his tenure he would order the launch of several extra balloons in the Great Plains to help figure out if storms would hit the United States. 'Hurricane forecasts, I'm expecting not to be as accurate this year because of that lack of balloon data,″ said former NOAA meteorologist Jeff Masters, now at Yale Climate Connections. ___ Aoun Angueira reported from San Diego. ___
Chicago Tribune
7 hours ago
- Politics
- Chicago Tribune
Turmoil, worry swirl over cuts to key federal agencies as hurricane season begins
WASHINGTON — With predictions for a busy hurricane season beginning Sunday, experts in storms and disasters are worried about something potentially as chaotic as the swirling winds: Massive cuts to the federal system that forecasts, tracks and responds to hurricanes. Experts are alarmed over the large-scale staff reductions, travel and training restrictions and grant cut-offs since President Donald Trump took office at both the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which prepares for and responds to hurricanes, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which tracks and forecasts them. 'My nightmare is a major catastrophic storm hitting an area that is reeling from the impact of all of this nonsense from the Trump administration and people will die. And that could happen in Florida, that could happen in Texas, that could happen in South Carolina,' said Susan Cutter, the director of the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute at the University of South Carolina. Representatives of both NOAA and FEMA say the agencies are prepared. About 2,000 full-time staff have left FEMA since Trump took office in January, a loss of roughly one-third of the agency's full-time workforce, amid Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) mandated cuts. Scholars who study emergency management are concerned by both the reduction in capacity and the 'brain drain' of experienced staff. 'There's really been a brain drain within FEMA in addition to the loss of overall employees,' said Samantha Montano, who teaches emergency management at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy. She noted that many who left were in critical management positions. The agency is run by an acting chief, David Richardson, a former Marine Corps officer who served overseas and worked as the Department of Homeland Security's assistant secretary for countering weapons of mass destruction. He does not appear to have any experience in managing disasters. Emergency management requires knowing where to get things, who to call, how things work and how to get it done quickly — which comes from experience and establishing relationships with state officials, Montano and Cutter said. What's happening reminds former Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Craig Fugate of 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina devastated Louisiana and exposed inexperienced and poorly prepared governments at all levels, especially the then-FEMA chief who came from a horse-rearing association. Fugate said he's especially worried about top experienced disaster people leaving FEMA. FEMA canceled various emergency management trainings this spring, moved others online and restricted travel to events such as the National Hurricane Conference. Some trainings have resumed. 'Given the reduction in staffing, being unable to do trainings, participate in conferences, there's potential that the federal government's ability is diminished,' said former Florida Emergency Management chief Bryan Koon, now president of the disaster preparedness firm IEM. FEMA has also cut disaster resilience programs. Making areas more survivable saves up to $13 for every dollar spent, said Lori Peek, director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado. The federal government promises to be ready for hurricane season, which runs through November. 'FEMA is shifting from bloated DC-centric dead weight to a lean, deployable disaster force that empowers state actors to provide relief for their citizens,' Associate FEMA Administrator Geoff Harbaugh said in a email. 'FEMA is fully activated in preparation for hurricane season.' Richardson promised to push more responsibilities to the states. He warned that the agency will only do what the law requires and shift more costs to states. But Koon noted that states haven't budgeted for FEMA's changes, adding: 'The biggest issue right now is just the uncertainty.' Some states — which coordinate disaster operations — are experienced in catastrophes, have well trained staff and will do fine, such as Texas and Florida, Fugate said. But it's the poorer states that worry the experts. The feds often pick up the entire bill in big disasters and most of it in smaller ones. In the Trump administration, disaster declarations have been denied or delayed. When disaster declarations were issued for nine states last week, some had been pending for two months and others were only partially approved. 'We've just relied on FEMA for so much for so long and not knowing who's going to fill the gap and how we're going to fill it is really scary,' said University at Albany emergency management professor Jeannette Sutton. NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, has undergone a series of dramatic job cuts, with some people then reinstated. A sizable chunk of the weather service's 121 local field offices as of late March had vacancy rates of more than 20%, what's seen by outsiders as a critical level of understaffing. Local weather offices are crucial in helping people translate national warnings into what to do locally. 'It should be all hands on deck and we're being hollowed out,' former NWS director Louis Uccellini said. But the National Hurricane Center, which tracks and warns of hurricanes in the Atlantic, Pacific and Caribbean, has been spared. Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham and National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said the agency is prepared for the season with the Miami-based storm center fully staffed and so are the planes that fly into storms. For the first time this year, the hurricane center will incorporate artificial intelligence into forecasting because it has shown to improve predictions generally, Brennan said. 'Our services have never been better,' Graham said. 'Our ability to serve this country has never been better. And it will be this year as well.' But beyond the hurricane center, weather balloons launches have been curtailed because of lack of staffing. In some places, balloon launches have dropped from twice a day to once a day. NOAA hopes to get more balloons launched if needed, Brennan said. Data from the balloons is crucial for understanding steering currents and needed for forecasts, Uccellini said. He said when hurricanes threatened during his tenure he would order the launch of several extra balloons in the Great Plains to help figure out if storms would hit the United States. 'Hurricane forecasts, I'm expecting not to be as accurate this year because of that lack of balloon data,″ said former NOAA meteorologist Jeff Masters, now at Yale Climate Connections.
Hamilton Spectator
7 hours ago
- Politics
- Hamilton Spectator
Turmoil, worry swirl over cuts to key federal agencies as hurricane season begins
WASHINGTON (AP) — With predictions for a busy hurricane season beginning Sunday, experts in storms and disasters are worried about something potentially as chaotic as the swirling winds: Massive cuts to the federal system that forecasts, tracks and responds to hurricanes. Experts are alarmed over the large-scale staff reductions , travel and training restrictions and grant cut-offs since President Donald Trump took office at both the Federal Emergency Management Agency , which prepares for and responds to hurricanes, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , which tracks and forecasts them. 'My nightmare is a major catastrophic storm hitting an area that is reeling from the impact of all of this nonsense from the Trump administration and people will die. And that could happen in Florida, that could happen in Texas, that could happen in South Carolina,' said Susan Cutter, the director of the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute at the University of South Carolina. Representatives of both NOAA and FEMA say the agencies are prepared. Experts: DOGE cuts diminish FEMA About 2,000 full-time staff have left FEMA since Trump took office in January, a loss of roughly one-third of the agency's full-time workforce, amid Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) mandated cuts. Scholars who study emergency management are concerned by both the reduction in capacity and the 'brain drain' of experienced staff. 'There's really been a brain drain within FEMA in addition to the loss of overall employees,' said Samantha Montano, who teaches emergency management at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy. She noted that many who left were in critical management positions. The agency is run by an acting chief, David Richardson , a former Marine Corps officer who served overseas and worked as the Department of Homeland Security's assistant secretary for countering weapons of mass destruction. He does not appear to have any experience in managing disasters. Emergency management requires knowing where to get things, who to call, how things work and how to get it done quickly — which comes from experience and establishing relationships with state officials, Montano and Cutter said. What's happening reminds former Federal Emergency Management Agency Director Craig Fugate of 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina devastated Louisiana and exposed inexperienced and poorly prepared governments at all levels, especially the then-FEMA chief who came from a horse-rearing association. Fugate said he's especially worried about top experienced disaster people leaving FEMA. FEMA canceled various emergency management trainings this spring, moved others online and restricted travel to events such as the National Hurricane Conference. Some trainings have resumed. 'Given the reduction in staffing, being unable to do trainings, participate in conferences, there's potential that the federal government's ability is diminished,'' said former Florida Emergency Management chief Bryan Koon, now president of the disaster preparedness firm IEM. FEMA has also cut disaster resilience programs . Making areas more survivable saves up to $13 for every dollar spent, said Lori Peek, director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado. The federal government promises to be ready for hurricane season, which runs through November. 'FEMA is shifting from bloated DC-centric dead weight to a lean, deployable disaster force that empowers state actors to provide relief for their citizens,' Associate FEMA Administrator Geoff Harbaugh said in a email. 'FEMA is fully activated in preparation for hurricane season.' FEMA's relationship with states Richardson promised to push more responsibilities to the states . He warned that the agency will only do what the law requires and shift more costs to states. But Koon noted that states haven't budgeted for FEMA's changes, adding: 'The biggest issue right now is just the uncertainty.' Some states — which coordinate disaster operations — are experienced in catastrophes, have well trained staff and will do fine, such as Texas and Florida, Fugate said. But it's the poorer states that worry the experts. The feds often pick up the entire bill in big disasters and most of it in smaller ones. In the Trump administration, disaster declarations have been denied or delayed. When disaster declarations were issued for nine states last week, some had been pending for two months and others were only partially approved. 'We've just relied on FEMA for so much for so long and not knowing who's going to fill the gap and how we're going to fill it is really scary,' said University at Albany emergency management professor Jeannette Sutton. Hurricane center dodges NOAA cuts NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, has undergone a series of dramatic job cuts, with some people then reinstated. A sizable chunk of the weather service's 121 local field offices as of late March had vacancy rates of more than 20% , what's seen by outsiders as a critical level of understaffing. Local weather offices are crucial in helping people translate national warnings into what to do locally. 'It should be all hands on deck and we're being hollowed out,' former NWS director Louis Uccellini said. But the National Hurricane Center, which tracks and warns of hurricanes in the Atlantic, Pacific and Caribbean, has been spared. Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham and National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said the agency is prepared for the season with the Miami-based storm center fully staffed and so are the planes that fly into storms. For the first time this year, the hurricane center will incorporate artificial intelligence into forecasting because it has shown to improve predictions generally, Brennan said. 'Our services have never been better,' Graham said. 'Our ability to serve this country has never been better. And it will be this year as well.' But beyond the hurricane center, weather balloons launches have been curtailed because of lack of staffing. In some places, balloon launches have dropped from twice a day to once a day. NOAA hopes to get more balloons launched if needed, Brennan said. Data from the balloons is crucial for understanding steering currents and needed for forecasts, Uccellini said. He said when hurricanes threatened during his tenure he would order the launch of several extra balloons in the Great Plains to help figure out if storms would hit the United States. 'Hurricane forecasts, I'm expecting not to be as accurate this year because of that lack of balloon data,″ said former NOAA meteorologist Jeff Masters, now at Yale Climate Connections. ___ Aoun Angueira reported from San Diego. ___ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at .
