Latest news with #KevinBuckland
Mint
6 days ago
- Business
- Mint
MORNING BID EUROPE-Split Bank of England set to cut rates
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland There's little doubt in the market's mind that the Bank of England will cut interest rates later today by another quarter point, making it five cuts in the past year. But a tricky balance between a slowing jobs market and nagging inflation worries could see the board split three ways, with two of the nine members potentially pushing for no change, while two others may lobby for a half-point reduction. The board's language will also be key, with a focus on whether the message of "gradual and careful" policy easing remains in place. Any signs of an extended pause would be a blow for Finance Minister Rachel Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who have promised to speed up Britain's slow economic growth. Away from the UK, the market's broad focus falls squarely on another central bank with some similar problems. The U.S. Federal Reserve has seen the macroeconomic data take a distinct downward turn over the past week - particularly the labour market - just days after the board opted to forgo a rate cut. But with worries about simmering inflationary forces as a result of President Donald Trump's bellicose tariff campaign also showing up in the data, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's wait-and-see stance also finds some support. Hanging over the Fed's debate - which saw two Trump-chosen Fed governors dissent in last week's decision - are the president's persistent and aggressive calls to cut rates, often framed with name-calling and threats to fire Powell before his chairmanship expires in May. The market's eyes are on Trump's short list of four possible replacements, and more immediately, his pick to fill a governor role abruptly vacated by Adriana Kugler. Meanwhile, Trump's barrage of tariff threats continues unabated, with a 100% duty on semiconductor imports and additional levies on India for importing Russian oil among the latest. Trump plans to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin next week about ending the war in Ukraine, which is buoying the euro while injecting uncertainty into the outlook for crude oil. Overall though, the market has become more inured to the constant tariff sabre-rattling and Japan's Topix index marched to a record peak while tech-heavy Taiwan shares leapt more than 2% to the highest in over a year. Pan-European STOXX 50 futures are pointing 0.2% higher, with Wall Street futures also up by about the same amount. A strong U.S. earnings season is one reason for that. Coming up are Eli Lilly, ConocoPhillips and Warner Bros Discovery, among many others. Europe has a busy day of earnings reports as well, with Allianz, Siemens and Merck among them. On the data front, Germany has trade figures and industrial production numbers, while Britain gets a reading on house prices. Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: -UK Halifax house prices (July) -German exports, imports, industrial production (all June) Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here. (Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Sam Holmes)
Yahoo
25-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks drop worldwide as investors brace for crucial week
By Naomi Rovnick and Kevin Buckland LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) -Investors cashed out of highly valued global stocks on Friday and the dollar headed for its biggest weekly drop in a month ahead of a crucial week for markets that includes Donald Trump's tariff deadline and key central bank meetings. MSCI's global equity index retreated from an all-time high and was 0.2% lower in early European trading while Japan's Topix index ended the day 0.9% lower after rising to a record on Thursday. Europe's STOXX 600 share index also fell 0.5% in early trade. Ahead of the August 1 deadline for U.S. trade deals with Europe and China, stock markets have been buoyed up by firm U.S. economic data and framed the risk of tariffs hitting growth as a reason to expect Federal Reserve rate cuts. "Higher (U.S.) inflation will, in time, result in weaker demand and weaker investment," UBS Wealth Management economist Dean Turner said. Van Luu, head of solutions strategy, fixed income and foreign exchange at Russell Investments, said he was waiting for a buying opportunity in U.S. Treasuries for this reason. "U.S. data looks astonishingly resilient," he said, but this likely reflected a spending rush before tariffs pushed business input costs and retail sticker prices higher. RISK EVENTS The past week saw U.S. trade agreements with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines, while deal talks continued with South Korea. Next week brings the next Fed interest rate meeting, the closely watched monthly payrolls report, and earnings from Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft. Trump has kept up pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates after a rare presidential visit to the central bank on Thursday, although he said he did not intend to fire Powell, as he has frequently suggested he would. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were steady at 4.41% while two-year yields, which track monetary policy bets, were also flat at 3.923%. Robust earnings from Google parent Alphabet took Wall Street's Nasdaq to a record high on Thursday but futures trading signalled the tech-heavy index would flatline at the start of cash trading in New York. Contracts tracking the blue-chip S&P 500 index were also flat in early European dealings. The Bank of Japan has its own policy announcement on Thursday, and Prime Minister Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party holds a meeting on the same day. That's after the European Central Bank held rates steady on Thursday, pausing its easing campaign as it waited to assess the impact from U.S. tariffs. The euro was steady against the dollar on Friday at $1.1745, although German government debt sold off, with the yield on benchmark 10-year Bunds up 5 basis points (bps) in early dealings to 2.74%, the highest since March 28. Japanese government bond yields were steady on Friday at about 1.6%, a level last seen in October 2008, having ratcheted higher on concerns the political scale is tilting more towards fiscal stimulus. This came after big gains for opposition parties backing consumption tax cuts in Sunday's upper house election. Pressure is building on the more fiscally hawkish Ishiba to quit after his coalition lost its majority in the vote, having done the same in lower house elections last October. Gold eased 0.3% to around $3,356 an ounce. Brent crude futures gained 0.7% to $69.65 a barrel. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Mint
10-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Dollar steady, Brazilian real slides on tariff threat; bitcoin near record high
By Kevin Buckland and Lucy Raitano TOKYO/LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar stabilised on Thursday after retreating from a two-week high versus major peers, as markets took U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff salvos in their stride, except in Brazil where a threatened 50% levy sent the real sliding. The dollar had been knocked back by a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields after a 10-year note auction on Wednesday garnered strong demand, tempering worries about the "Sell America" narrative that saw Treasuries, the dollar and Wall Street stocks all sold off earlier this year. Overall, investors were hungry for riskier assets, with the most damaging tariff scenarios looking increasingly unlikely. That helped Nvidia to become the first stock ever with a $4 trillion valuation, and lifted cryptocurrency bitcoin to an all-time peak just shy of $112,000. Optimism was also buoyed by minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting, with most policymakers of the opinion that interest rate cuts would be appropriate later this year. The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, was little changed at 97.416, finding a floor following a 0.2% decline on Wednesday, the same day that it pushed to the highest since June 25 at 97.837 before losing momentum. The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1733 on Thursday, while sterling added 0.1% to $1.3609. Against typical safe-haven currencies, the dollar held steady at 146.32 yen and 0.79420 Swiss francs. With the exception of Brazil, Trump's latest batch of letters to trade partners contained tariff rates close to those already proposed in his original "Liberation Day" announcement on April 2, as was the case with other letters this week. Trump has also left the door open to extensions beyond the new August 1 deadline if countries make compelling proposals. Brazil had originally been slated for just the baseline 10% levy, but Trump cited not just trade practices but the treatment of its former president, Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro, who was friendly with Trump when they were both in office, is on trial on charges of plotting a coup to stop current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva from taking office in January 2023. The real dropped as much as 2.8% overnight to hit 5.6047 per dollar for the first time since June 6, and was last changing hands at 5.5826 per dollar. "...the reasons are clearly politically motivated. Brazil is actually one of the very few countries with a trade deficit with the U.S.," said Michael Pfister, FX analyst at Commerzbank. "It's worrying not only for the Brazilian real but also for the U.S. dollar, you can't be sure which country might be next," he said. Trump and other officials have said several times lately that a deal with India is close, while the European Union is also edging toward a framework agreement. The latest inflation data out of Norway showed June core inflation slightly higher than expected. Norway's crown traded largely unchanged against the euro at 11.81 but was one of the few currencies to move against the dollar, last up 0.3% at 10.650. Bitcoin was up 0.5% at around $111,268, just below the all-time high hit overnight of $111,988.90. "The new record high came on improved risk sentiment," IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note to clients. "While the push to new highs hasn't yet sparked the fireworks the market might have been hoping for, there is scope for bitcoin to make further gains towards $120,000." (Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland in Tokyo. Editing by Jamie Freed and Mark Potter)
Daily Maverick
25-06-2025
- Business
- Daily Maverick
Asia markets stabilise, dollar droops following Middle East truce
Crude oil hovers near multi-week lows as supply worries recede Regional stocks flat after relief rally on Wall Street overnight Ceasefire fragile with Israel vowing response to Iran missiles By Kevin Buckland TOKYO, June 25 (Reuters) – Asian stocks stabilised on Wednesday as crude oil hovered near multi-week lows as a ceasefire between Israel and Iran buoyed sentiment, even as hostilities threatened to flare up again. The dollar wallowed close to an almost four-year trough versus the euro with two-year US Treasury yields sagging to 1.5-month lows as lower oil prices reduced the risk to bonds from an inflation shock. The shaky truce has so far held, although Israel says it will respond forcefully to Iranian missile strikes that came after US President Donald Trump had announced an end to the hostilities. In addition, US airstrikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear capability and only set it back by a few months, according to a preliminary US intelligence assessment, contradicting Trump's earlier comments that Iran's nuclear programme had been 'obliterated'. Japan's Nikkei and Australia's stock benchmark were flat, while Taiwan's index gained 1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.6% and mainland Chinese blue chips eased 0.1%. US stock futures were little changed. An MSCI index of global stocks held steady after climbing to a record high overnight. Brent crude ticked up 81 cents to $67.95 per barrel, bouncing a bit following a plunge of as much as $14.58 over the previous two sessions. US West Texas Intermediate crude added 70 cents to $65.07 per barrel. 'Despite the cease fire between Israel and Iran appearing somewhat tenuous, the markets are shrugging it off,' said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at 'Realistically, the markets don't care if a limited conflict comprised of mostly air strikes continues between the two countries,' he said. 'It's the prospect of a broader war, with deeper US intervention and an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that really matters. And for now, the risks of that seem low.' The two-year US Treasury yield dipped to the lowest since May 8 at 3.787%. The US dollar index, which measures the currency against six major counterparts, slipped 0.1% to 97.854. The dollar slipped 0.1% to 144.70 yen. The euro added 0.1% to $1.1625, edging back towards the overnight high of $1.1641, a level not seen since October 2021. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that higher tariffs could begin raising inflation this summer, a period that will be key to the US central bank considering possible interest rate cuts. Powell spoke at a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee. Data showed that US consumer confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in June, signalling softening labour market conditions. Markets continue to price in a roughly 18% chance that the Fed will cut rates in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Yahoo
25-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Asia markets stabilise, dollar droops following Middle East truce
By Kevin Buckland TOKYO (Reuters) -Asian stocks stabilised on Wednesday as crude oil hovered near multi-week lows as a ceasefire between Israel and Iran buoyed sentiment, even as hostilities threatened to flare up again. The dollar wallowed close to an almost four-year trough versus the euro with two-year U.S. Treasury yields sagging to 1 1/2-month lows as lower oil prices reduced the risk to bonds from an inflation shock. The shaky truce has so far held, although Israel says it will respond forcefully to Iranian missile strikes that came after U.S. President Donald Trump had announced an end to the hostilities. In addition, U.S. airstrikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear capability and only set it back by a few months, according to a preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment, contradicting Trump's earlier comments that Iran's nuclear programme had been "obliterated". Japan's Nikkei and Australia's stock benchmark were flat, while Taiwan's index gained 1%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.6% and mainland Chinese blue chips eased 0.1%. U.S. stock futures were little changed. An MSCI index of global stocks held steady after climbing to a record high overnight. Brent crude ticked up 81 cents to $67.95 per barrel, bouncing a bit following a plunge of as much as $14.58 over the previous two sessions. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added 70 cents to $65.07 per barrel. "Despite the cease fire between Israel and Iran appearing somewhat tenuous, the markets are shrugging it off," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial markets analyst at "Realistically, the markets don't care if a limited conflict comprised of mostly air strikes continues between the two countries," he said. "It's the prospect of a broader war, with deeper US intervention and an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that really matters. And for now, the risks of that seem low." The two-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped to the lowest since May 8 at 3.787%. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six major counterparts, slipped 0.1% to 97.854. The dollar slipped 0.1% to 144.70 yen. The euro added 0.1% to $1.1625, edging back towards the overnight high of $1.1641, a level not seen since October 2021. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that higher tariffs could begin raising inflation this summer, a period that will be key to the U.S. central bank considering possible interest rate cuts. Powell spoke at a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee. Data showed that U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in June, signalling softening labour market conditions. Markets continue to price in a roughly 18% chance that the Fed will cut rates in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
