Latest news with #Khorramshahr
Asharq Al-Awsat
25-05-2025
- Politics
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Iranian Army, IRGC Threaten Decisive Response to Any Aggression
The Iranian Army and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) separately warned on Saturday adversaries of Iran that they would receive a decisive response in case of any act of aggression against their country. The warning came in two separate statements to mark the anniversary of the Iranian army's liberation of Khorramshahr, a southern city captured during the 1980-88 war with Iraq. It also came amid reports that Israel is drawing up plans for a rapid military strike against Iranian nuclear sites. IRGC said it works in synergy with the other Iranian armed forces to give a decisive response to any hostile action. It warned that its reaction to the acts of aggression will be beyond the enemy's imagination. The Revolutionary Guards statement also said that any aggression would provoke a retaliatory strike powerful enough to shift the strategic balance of power in west Asia. In the meantime, a statement by Iran's Army said that alongside other armed forces, it is prepared to defend the territorial integrity, independence, and security of the country and will never allow the evil dreams of the sworn enemies of this land to come true. 'The army will defend this land to the last drop of blood and will spare no effort in the path of the pride and honor of Islamic Iran,' it said. Position of Strength 'If we want (nuclear) talks to end in our favor, we must confront the Americans from a position of strength and have the finger of our armed forces on the trigger during negotiations,' former head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Fereydoun Abbasi, told ISNA on Saturday. 'Today, nuclear weapons aim to achieve a balance of power' rather than a military purpose. 'The Muslim world must have its own strength to confront the arrogant West,' Abbasi said. Last Thursday, Tehran's Revolutionary Guards said Israel will receive a 'devastating and decisive response' if it attacks Iran, days after CNN reported US intelligence suggesting Israel was making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Israeli Preparations The reports were confirmed by two Israeli sources who told Axios that Tel Aviv is making preparations to swiftly strike Iran's nuclear facilities if negotiations between the US and Iran collapse. 'Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a highly sensitive meeting earlier this week with a group of top ministers and security and intelligence officials regarding the status of the nuclear talks,' an Israeli official said. The two sources confirmed a CNN report that the Israeli army have been conducting exercises and other preparations for a possible strike in Iran. 'There was a lot of training and the US military sees everything and understands Israel is preparing,' one said. Key Points of Contention On Friday, Iran and the United States held a fifth round of Oman-mediated nuclear talks in Rome, but with no breakthrough reported. However, both sides still described the meeting as constructive and expressed a willingness to continue the discussions. AFP said that one of the main obstacles seen to be hampering progress is Iran's enrichment of uranium. The United States and Western countries suspect Iran of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, but Iran denies having such ambitions. Iran remains the only non-nuclear state enriching uranium to 60%, well above the 3.67% limit set under its 2015 accord with Western powers, but below the 90% needed for weapons-grade material. The deal was torpedoed in 2018 during President Donald Trump's first term when he unilaterally withdrew the United States from the accord. On April 27, Netanyahu urged Washington to block not only Iran's enrichment of uranium but also its missile development under any possible deal. Before the negotiations began, some analysts suggested the US might seek a broader deal that also addressed Iran's ballistic missile program. They believed the talks might touch on Tehran's support for the 'axis of resistance,' the network of anti-Israel armed groups that includes Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and Yemen's Houthi militias. Tehran has criticised what it calls 'irrational' demands by Washington and inconsistent signals from US officials. Iran opposes non-nuclear issues being discussed in the talks, citing its sovereign rights and defence needs. Even with diplomacy under way, the United States has imposed new sanctions on Iran. Tehran denounces what it calls Washington's 'hostile approach,' noting that new sanctions were imposed just ahead of negotiations taking place.
The National
03-04-2025
- Politics
- The National
Iran could build a nuclear missile within six months, experts warn
Iran can enrich enough uranium to weapons grade for five nuclear devices within a week, analysts have claimed. But Tehran's ability to build a viable missile-launched weapon is likely to take between six and 18 months, according to western intelligence reports. Following threats from US President Donald Trump, Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei's senior adviser said that it would acquire such a weapon if attacked. 'We are not moving towards [nuclear] weapons, but if you do something wrong in the Iranian nuclear issue, you will force Iran to move towards that because it has to defend itself,' Ali Larijani told state television on Monday. That makes the coming months a crucial period for the region, said Dr Sanam Vakil, of the Chatham House think tank in London. 'We are in a crisis year where we could see negotiations, an Israeli attack and weaponisation all take place,' she told The National. 'There's a sequence to how this is going to go. To justify weaponisation, there will have to be an attack and for there to be an attack there will have to be efforts at negotiation.' Although none of Iran's centrifuges are enriching uranium to the 90 per cent level that defines weapons-grade material, it has a stockpile enriched to 60 per cent, according to the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. With further enrichment, that material could fuel 'up to five nuclear warheads within one week or eight within two weeks', said Darya Dolzikova, an expert on nuclear proliferation at the Rusi think tank. Iran Watch, which tracks the country's ability to make nuclear weapons, also confirmed the figures but added in a report last month that for the uranium to pose a nuclear threat it would have to be processed further into weapon components. It also said that if Iran chose to make nuclear weapons 'it could do so at secret sites' rather than a well-known location, as 'in a dash to make weapons…it would risk detection before success'. While the material for making a bomb could be done quickly, the greater difficulty is to build and test a bomb, place it on a missile and fire it. 'Uranium is no longer a problem for the Iranians but to develop a nuclear weapon to put that fissile material into it is the bigger question, a much bigger unknown,' said Jeremy Binnie, an Iran missile analyst at Janes, the defence intelligence company. The Khorramshahr is the most likely missile to be used as its 1,800kg payload would allow it to carry a nuclear device as far as 2,000 kilometres, putting Tel Aviv within range. The first step will be moulding the uranium into a ball then developing a trigger mechanism to initiate the nuclear reaction for detonation. 'That's actually a pretty complex device to manufacture, as you need to wrap conventional explosives to the trigger mechanism housing,' said Mr Binnie. Iran would also need to rebuild explosive testing chambers as the site in Parchin was taken down following the 2015 nuclear agreement. 'Intelligence estimates indicate that the Iranians aren't that advanced, and that will handicap their ability to very quickly develop a deliverable nuclear weapon,' Mr Binnie added. That device would need 16k kg of uranium U-235 for one weapon. However, if Iran chose to move more quickly, it could go with a 7kg nuclear warhead. This would have a yield of just under the 16,000 tonnes of conventional explosives equivalent of the bomb dropped by the US on the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945, according to Iran Watch. 'Some experts believe that Iran could use less material, assuming Iran would accept a lower yield for each weapon,' its report said. 'Iran could use as few as seven kilograms if Iran's weapon developers possessed a 'medium' level of skill.' Ms Dolzikova said intelligence estimates put Iran's capability for a nuclear missile at between six and 18 months, which allows time to fully plan strikes. But Iran has been only too aware of the likelihood of an attack on its nuclear programme and has dispersed and fortified its facilities. Natanz, located 225km south of Tehran, is Iran's flagship enrichment site with four tunnels bored into the mountain providing underground protection against air strikes. Fordow, a heavily reinforced plant embedded in a mountain near Qom, was a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps base built to withstand attack. Much of its other sites can be dispersed, although they are vulnerable to both Israeli and American intelligence finding them either from human sources or satellite and communications intelligence. Currently the US, Iran, Israel and European powers were 'in the war of words and pre negotiation phase', said Dr Vakil, but the clock was running out as there was a September deadline for the E3 countries (UK, France, Germany) to call in the 'snapback mechanism' of UN sanctions against Iran that expire the following month. 'If they don't make a deal, there will be bombing,' Mr Trump told NBC News on Sunday. 'It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.' But attacking its sites will come with great risk and be complex, although Israel has already demonstrated its ability to decimate Iran's air defences with its air strikes last October. To destroy mountain and tunnelled sites, beyond a nuclear weapon only the US-made GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 13,000kg bomb, is capable of penetrating deep into the earth to destroy subterranean centres. But the only aircraft that can carry the GBU-57 are the USAF's B-2 or B-1 bombers. Israel's most powerful bomb, the GBU-28, can penetrate some bunkers but not deep enough for targets buried under mountains. If Israel were to attempt a strike with its F-15I fighter bombers, it would face serious logistical challenges, including the need to refuel mid-air for long-range flights, as reported last year by The National.
