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Stagflation warnings abound in spending, inflation, sentiment data
Stagflation warnings abound in spending, inflation, sentiment data

Axios

time28-03-2025

  • Business
  • Axios

Stagflation warnings abound in spending, inflation, sentiment data

As the first quarter comes to a close, there's an uncomfortable picture becoming clear in the data: The economy is going through a growth slowdown paired with an inflation surge. Why it matters: As the White House plots a major escalation of tariffs next week, the backward-looking data shows that there already is more than a whiff of stagflation in the air. Driving the news: The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index — the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation — was hot in February, the Commerce Department said Friday. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.4% in February, picking up pace for the fourth straight month. It was the highest reading in a year. From the same period a year ago, the PCE price index increased 2.8%, compared to January's 2.7%. Core PCE rose at a 3.6% annualized pace over the last three months, the highest since last March. The news on spending points to a slowing in demand from consumers at the start of 2025. Personal consumption expenditures, adjusted for inflation, rose just 0.1% in February after dropping by 0.6% the previous month. Separate reports have shown a surge in imports, likely driven by companies looking to get ahead of looming tariffs. In the arithmetic of GDP, this depresses the growth rate. Put it all together, and GDP is on track to contract at a 0.5% annual rate, per the latest update to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNowcast (after adjusting for data quirks due to gold imports). Friday's data is "only inflaming stagflation fears," ING chief international economist James Knightley wrote. "We are moving in the wrong direction and the concern is that tariffs threaten higher prices, which mean the inflation prints are going to remain hot," Knightley added. "This will constrain the Fed's ability to deliver further interest rate cuts." The big picture: The fast-moving White House policy means data from just last month feels stale. As of February, the Trump administration had doubled tariffs on imports from China to 20%. There have been plenty of stops and starts since then, though tariffs have been slapped on imports of steel, aluminum and foreign-made cars. More tariffs are expected next week. What to watch: Fed officials this week appeared to adjust their tone on tariffs, with some more explicitly acknowledging the inflation threat. "It looks inevitable that tariffs are going to increase inflation in the near term," Boston Fed president Susan Collins said Thursday. Yes, but: Income growth was the bright spot: Real disposable income rose 0.5% — compared to the 0.3% increase in January. That's the backward-looking data. Looking forward, Americans seem to anticipate a stagflationary year ahead, per the latest data from the University of Michigan's long-running sentiment survey. By the numbers: The headline consumer sentiment index fell to 57 in March, a 12% drop from February, confirming a preliminary release two weeks ago that showed a similar drop-off. The falloff was steepest in expectations for the future, which showed a "precipitous" 18% decline per the survey director, as opposed to current economic conditions. The drop in expectations was seen across political affiliations, with Republicans' outlook falling by 8% in March (though still higher than pre-election). Between the lines: The details of the release line up with a stagflationary story. Survey respondents now anticipate 5% inflation over the next year, up from 4.3% in February. But they are also intensely gloomy about the job market, with two-thirds of respondents expecting the unemployment rate to rise in the next year — the highest since 2009. What they're saying: "Republicans joined independents and Democrats in expressing worsening expectations since February for their personal finances, business conditions, unemployment, and inflation," survey director Joanne Hsu said in the release. "Consumers continue to worry about the potential for pain amid ongoing economic policy developments." For the record: The White House attributes the data to the Biden administration, though February was President Trump's first full month in office. "Americans are continuing to feel the lingering effects of four years of economic disaster under Joe Biden," said White House spokesperson Kush Desai. "The Trump administration is focused on slashing Biden's runaway spending that fueled inflation in the first place, and declining energy prices prove how President Trump's America First agenda is already delivering much-needed relief for everyday Americans."

Keira Knightley at 40: her best 20 best films – ranked!
Keira Knightley at 40: her best 20 best films – ranked!

The Guardian

time20-03-2025

  • Entertainment
  • The Guardian

Keira Knightley at 40: her best 20 best films – ranked!

Knightley's first big role was in this teen thriller, about four private school kids partying in a bomb shelter, where it all goes predictably haywire. It's a horror, and not just for the sheer dominance of low-rise bootcut jeans. Even in its more hysterical moments, Knightley brings nuance to the posh-girl stereotype. Ostensibly about the poet Dylan Thomas, this ended up being more about the complicated relationship between his wife, Caitlin (Sienna Miller), and his ex-girlfriend, Vera. As a film, it is a bit of a mess and struggles to soar, but the performances, and particularly Knightley's turn as the glamorous Vera, help to lift it. The first of two films in which Knightley has to navigate the end of the world, and one of the bleakest conceits for a Christmas comedy ever thought up. While Knightley is perfectly at ease with a thriller or a period drama, this gruesome dinner-party piece shows she can do uptight country house black comedy, too. As the decoy and 'loyal bodyguard' to Natalie Portman's Queen Amidala, Knightley gets to act the part of an actor, of sorts. She spends most of the film cloaked in black, in heavy makeup, delivering lines with a regal monotony, but it was a splashy start to her big Hollywood career. Conceptually ahead of its time and with a cast far better than you might expect, Lorene Scafaria's film sees Knightley again hanging out at the apocalypse, this time accompanying Steve Carell. Watching his dopey misanthropic energy collide with Knightley doing her best manic Brits-y dream girl is quite the ride. This noir-ish take on the infamous serial killer and the journalist who gave him his moniker sees Knightley playing a hard-boiled, tenacious reporter. Ultimately, the film is less about the killer/s than it is about the victims, and about journalist Loretta McLaughlin's uphill battle to have the case, and herself, taken seriously. Knightley was 17 when she played Juliet, the subject of Andrew Lincoln's silent, card-holding declaration of his affections towards his best mate's wife, which is either disgusting or romantic, depending on how you look at it (Knightley has hedged her bets, calling it 'creepy and sweet'). She doesn't have to do a lot here, but the film, and that scene, have taken on a seemingly endless afterlife of their own. This likable ensemble saw Knightley playing the real-life historian and activist Sally Alexander. It took the rise of second-wave feminism and the plot to disrupt the 1970 Miss World pageant, and used them as a semi-screwball caper. Knightley was more of a straight woman, but its playful underbelly was a way for it to make some complex points about the protest and who was included, or not, in the uproar. She recently called the films 'a very confused place in her head', but this was the blockbuster franchise that made her a box office star. As Elizabeth Swann, Knightley gamely swashbuckled her way through the high seas in a sort of high-end, big-budget, crowd-pleasing panto. On paper, it should have been unbearably twee, but it's a crowd-pleaser, and then some. Knightley sings her way through this modern-day fairytale about a recently dumped folk singer who crosses paths with Mark Ruffalo's recently fired A&R man. Is it possible for them to sidestep the corporate machine? She plays a lot of songs in a lot of different places to try to find out. David Cronenberg takes Knightley's long-established proficiency in a corset and, well, Cronenbergs it. As Sabina Spielrein, one of Carl Jung's psychiatric patients, and later one of the first women to become a psychoanalyst, Knightley does some serious acting. It is a film stuffed with big performances, and she more than holds her own. She shines as the titular and put-upon Georgiana, who at 17 is married off to the Duke of Devonshire and set to work to produce an heir. It has all the elements of the key Knightley roles: a country house and a woman who rejects social expectations while strapped into some heavy corsetry and also being somewhat doomed, despite a steady display of defiance. It was perhaps inevitable that Knightley would end up taking on Tolstoy's complex heroine in this faithful period drama, albeit seen through the less conventional lens of director and regular collaborator Joe Wright. It is a formidable task, and she delivers a performance that cuts through some of its more experimental flourishes. Kazuo Ishiguro's novel, about clones created in a lab and raised as organ donors, is now a school curriculum staple. While Carey Mulligan takes the lead as Kathy, Knightley is more spirited as her best friend and occasional foil, Ruth. Despite the heavy subject matter, the film chooses a taciturn, almost workaday approach, but Knightley embodies its quiet, steady sense of tragedy. If Knightley sometimes errs towards stiff-upper-lip restraint, then she lets loose in this retelling of the French author's first book, published under her husband's name, Willy. When the marriage becomes toxic and she rejects his controlling ways and finds her own voice, she starts to explore big and exuberant questions about sex, talent and fame. This slow-burn fan favourite continues to win new aficionados today, two decades after its low-key release. The film belongs to Parminder Nagra's Jess, but as sidekick Jules, Knightley gives heart and depth to the footballing tomboy fighting her mother's expectations of who she should be. The first of Knightley's two Oscar nominations came for her Elizabeth Bennet, in Joe Wright's starry and elegant Austen adaptation. There are so many versions of the character on screen that it can be difficult to find a new way in, but Knightley employs every one of her skills here, carrying the movie with her abrasive yet impossibly charming Lizzie. Her second Oscar nomination was for best supporting actress in the accomplished Alan Turing biopic, in which she plays Turing's friend, colleague in code-breaking and – briefly – fiancee, Joan Clarke. As Turing, Benedict Cumberbatch finds a perfect scene partner in Knightley, who ups the cut-glass vowels and finds a magnetic, brittle veneer of her own. The vowels are even more clipped and regal in Wright's period masterpiece, which took Ian McEwan's novel and transformed it into gorgeous, rich cinema. It may be where Knightley's key oeuvre – posh, tragic and spirited – flourished first; as the glamorous and doomed Cecilia, it is certainly where it reaches perfection. Out of period costume, Knightley was at her career best in this underrated film about Katharine Gun, the GCHQ translator and whistleblower who felt compelled to leak documents about the US manipulation of evidence for the impending Iraq war. The friction between moral and professional duty is remarkable, and it showed she could offer a totally different interpretation of posh, tragic and spirited.

Keira Knightley Embraces Dark Glamour in Strapless Chanel Gown for Louvre's Grand Fashion Dinner
Keira Knightley Embraces Dark Glamour in Strapless Chanel Gown for Louvre's Grand Fashion Dinner

Yahoo

time05-03-2025

  • Entertainment
  • Yahoo

Keira Knightley Embraces Dark Glamour in Strapless Chanel Gown for Louvre's Grand Fashion Dinner

A bevy of A-list stars and high-profile guests styled their best formal threads for Le Grand Dîner du Louvre on Tuesday in Paris. Among the stars was two-time Oscar-nominated actress and frequent Chanel collaborator Keira Knightley, who attended the event alongside her husband James Righton. Knightley looked to the runway for inspiration for her outfit for the evening's black-tie festivities. The 'Pride & Prejudice' star wore a gown courtesy of Chanel's fall 2024 couture collection. The strapless black dress was wholly evocative of dark glamour, refining the style with touches of sparkle. More from WWD Keira Knightley Goes Strapless in a White Dress at Tod's Fall 2025 Show in Milan Keira Knightley Embraces Classic Black-and-white Dressing With Floral Details in Erdem for Soccer Match in Italy Gigi Hadid Models Metallics in Asymmetrical Dress at the Louvre's Grand Fashion Dinner The black gown featured a fitted bodice with buttons running down the front placket and small glittering silver gems styled in a floral motif. The dress also included a slight peplum element for a defined waist, while the full skirt added movement and layers of fabric for a voluminous effect. As for her accessories, Knightley opted for simple touches, featuring a silver choker necklace with small stars, dainty earrings and a few delicate rings. The actress' hair was styled in a bob with soft waves and a middle part. Knightley's strapless gown made its runway debut during Paris Fashion Week in June 2024. The showcase took place prior to Matthieu Blazy's appointment as the new creative director for the French luxury fashion house, succeeding Virginie Viard. 'This collection was rooted in classic Chanel codes, with streamlined tailoring, lavish embellishment and a preponderance of black,' Joelle Diderich wrote in WWD's review of the collection. 'Evening options included a trio of frothy black ballerina dresses embellished with crystal cabochons; a trim black coat studded with 3D gold ribbons, and taffeta capes in ivory, fuchsia or black that split open to show off bare or stockinged legs,' Diderich wrote. 'There was an '80s feel to looks like a pale pink ruffled jumpsuit and the sweeping ivory bridal gown, which brought to mind Princess Diana's wedding gown designed by David and Elizabeth Emanuel.' View Gallery Launch Gallery: Louvre's Grand Fashion Dinner Photos: Gigi Hadid, Doechii, Naomi Campbell and More Best of WWD Penélope Cruz's Oscar Looks Through the Years: Strapless Silhouettes by Chanel, Balmain and More Emma Stone's Oscars Dresses Through the Years: Givenchy Fringe, Louis Vuitton Peplum and More Designer Dresses Halle Berry's Oscars Dresses Through the Years: Oscar-winning in Elie Saab, 2023's Tamara Ralph Look and More

Orlando Bloom weighs in on Keira Knightley's Pirates of the Caribbean admission
Orlando Bloom weighs in on Keira Knightley's Pirates of the Caribbean admission

Yahoo

time29-01-2025

  • Entertainment
  • Yahoo

Orlando Bloom weighs in on Keira Knightley's Pirates of the Caribbean admission

Orlando Bloom has reflected on Keira Knightley's comments about Pirates of the Caribbean. The actor played Knightley's love interest Will Turner in three of the swashbuckling adventure films from 2003 to 2007, with the pair returning as a cameo in 2017 sequel Dead Men Tell No Tales. While the franchise made global stars of both Bloom and Knightley, the British actor said in a recent interview that it wasn't all fun and games starring in the films as she felt the franchise was simultaneously 'making and breaking' her. 'I was seen as s*** because of them, and yet because they did so well I was given the opportunity to do the films that I ended up getting Oscar nominations for,' the star of Pride and Prejudice and Atonement told The Times. Bloom has now spoken out about Knightley's musings on her experience, telling Entertainment Weekly: 'I definitely understand where Keira was coming from, and she does wonderful things [in the films]. The actor said that he has 'a lot of positive takeaways' from his time starring in the blockbusters. He continued: 'It was such a huge moment in time that is almost like … it feels almost like another lifetime now. But it certainly was unique and, you know, I'm always grateful.' Elaborating on her time starring in the Pirates franchise, Knightley said: 'They were the most successful films I'll ever be a part of and they were the reason that I was taken down publicly. 'So they're a very confused place in my head.' A sixth Pirates of the Caribbean film is in the works, with producer Jerry Bruckheimer appearing to confirm in 2024 that lead star Johnny Depp would not be involved. The producing maestro, whose Top Gun: Maverick had huge box office success in 2022, told 'With Top Gun, you have an actor who is iconic and brilliant [Tom Cruise]. But we're gonna reboot Pirates, so that is easier to put together because you don't have to wait for certain actors.' The possibility of Depp returning to the Pirates franchise was the subject of testimony during his defamation trial with ex-wife Amber Heard. Depp was asked by Heard's lawyer: 'If Disney came to you with $300m dollars and a million alpacas, nothing on this earth would get you to go back and work with Disney on a Pirates of the Caribbean film?' 'That is true,' Depp answered. While the legal battle was ongoing, Bruckheimer told The Times that Disney had no plans to bring Depp back as Captain Jack Sparrow, but added: 'The future is yet to be decided.'

Orlando Bloom weighs in on Keira Knightley's Pirates of the Caribbean admission
Orlando Bloom weighs in on Keira Knightley's Pirates of the Caribbean admission

The Independent

time29-01-2025

  • Entertainment
  • The Independent

Orlando Bloom weighs in on Keira Knightley's Pirates of the Caribbean admission

The actor played Knightley's love interest Will Turner in three of the swashbuckling adventure films from 2003 to 2007, with the pair returning as a cameo in 2017 sequel Dead Men Tell No Tales. While the franchise made global stars of both Bloom and Knightley, the British actor said in a recent interview that it wasn't all fun and games starring in the films as she felt the franchise was simultaneously 'making and breaking' her. 'I was seen as s*** because of them, and yet because they did so well I was given the opportunity to do the films that I ended up getting Oscar nominations for,' the star of Pride and Prejudice and Atonement told The Times. Bloom has now spoken out about Knightley's musings on her experience, telling Entertainment Weekly: 'I definitely understand where Keira was coming from, and she does wonderful things [in the films]. The actor said that he has 'a lot of positive takeaways' from his time starring in the blockbusters. He continued: 'It was such a huge moment in time that is almost like … it feels almost like another lifetime now. But it certainly was unique and, you know, I'm always grateful.' Elaborating on her time starring in the Pirates franchise, Knightley said: 'They were the most successful films I'll ever be a part of and they were the reason that I was taken down publicly. 'So they're a very confused place in my head.' A sixth Pirates of the Caribbean film is in the works, with producer Jerry Bruckheimer appearing to confirm in 2024 that lead star Johnny Depp would not be involved. The producing maestro, whose Top Gun: Maverick had huge box office success in 2022, told 'With Top Gun, you have an actor who is iconic and brilliant [Tom Cruise]. But we're gonna reboot Pirates, so that is easier to put together because you don't have to wait for certain actors.' The possibility of Depp returning to the Pirates franchise was the subject of testimony during his defamation trial with ex-wife Amber Heard. Depp was asked by Heard's lawyer: 'If Disney came to you with $300m dollars and a million alpacas, nothing on this earth would get you to go back and work with Disney on a Pirates of the Caribbean film?' 'That is true,' Depp answered. While the legal battle was ongoing, Bruckheimer told The Times that Disney had no plans to bring Depp back as Captain Jack Sparrow, but added: 'The future is yet to be decided.'

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