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News18
3 days ago
- Business
- News18
Indian Equity Market Nears Lifetime Highs: Fundamentals Or FOMO? Market Expert Bhole Weighs In
Last Updated: Indian equity market nears lifetime highs due to strong macro indicators, foreign inflows, and political stability. Atul Bhole of Kotak Mahindra AMC discusses market fundamentals. The Indian equity market has rebounded after a prolonged sluggish period and is now approaching lifetime highs. Factors such as strong macroeconomic indicators, consistent foreign inflows, and political stability are providing positive momentum. As a result, market sentiment remains optimistic despite high valuations and subdued earnings growth. Markets are dancing near lifetime highs. How much of this is driven by fundamentals and how much by FOMO? Bhole: India's macro fundamentals are currently in a sweet spot and among the strongest globally. Tightly controlled fiscal and current account deficits, lower inflation, a stable currency, and steady GDP growth of around 6–6.5% are attracting foreign flows in a big way. While these fundamentals have been strong for some time, their resilience became even more evident during the ongoing global trade war. From the start of the year until mid-April 2025, FIIs sold close to $15 billion worth of Indian equities. However, since mid-April, the trend has reversed, with FIIs buying around $5.5 billion—largely from the secondary market rather than through IPOs, QIPs, or direct stake sales. Domestic flows have also remained reasonable, with mutual funds raising cash levels and retail participation staying measured compared to the recent past. While corporate earnings growth remains muted and valuations are stretched, strong macro fundamentals are clearly driving robust foreign and domestic flows into Indian equity markets. Bhole: Several SMID stocks witnessed value erosion of 40–60% between June–July 2024 and March–April 2025. These stocks were driven more by momentum, false narratives, illiquidity, and FOMO than by sound fundamentals or reasonable valuations. Institutional investors, such as mutual funds, which rely on research and expert insights, were able to avoid such pitfalls and limit drawdowns. Some retail investors likely learnt valuable lessons during this episode and may now start appreciating the value that mutual funds and advisors add to long-term wealth creation. However, the market often behaves like a voting machine in the short term—it keeps attracting new investors or leads the same investors to repeat new mistakes. The recent sharp rally in defence stocks after the skirmish is another example of greed or FOMO overriding rational investing behaviour. Operation Sindoor has also worked like an international defence expo showcasing the might of Indian defence companies. This is also reflected in the dramatic movement in share prices. How strong is the defence story on Dalal Street? Bhole: India's defence equipment industry has gained strong momentum over the past 3–5 years, supported by a government-led indigenisation push and larger, expedited orders. The ecosystem is developing well, with private sector players emerging as credible component manufacturers. Defence stocks performed extremely well post-Covid until mid-2024, driven largely by policy support and effective execution. However, much of the returns were driven by valuation re-rating rather than actual earnings growth. Price-to-earnings multiples jumped from 10–20x to 50–60x. Between mid-2024 and March 2025, many of these stocks saw 40–60% drawdowns from their over-stretched levels. Post Operation Sindoor, defence stocks bounced back significantly and are once again trading at valuations that may not be justified by near-term fundamentals. While these companies could deliver sustained long-term growth, the market seems to have priced in too much, too soon. A period of cooling-off or extended consolidation in stock prices is likely. With valuations stretched in certain pockets of the market, do you think the Q4 earnings season was strong enough to justify the rally? Bhole: The Q4 earnings season has been muted yet again, with 5–10% earnings growth depending on the sector and company size (large caps vs. SMIDs). However, the market hasn't reacted negatively, as expectations were already lowered after three consecutive quarters of weak growth and cautious corporate commentary. Markets are forward-looking. While Q4 results aren't particularly strong, future earnings could improve due to tax breaks, a normal monsoon, stronger wage growth, continued capex, and a low base effect. The ongoing rally is being driven more by strong macro fundamentals and capital flows. A pause may occur until corporate earnings begin to align with expectations. As an investor today, would you back consumption, capex, or financials in FY26? Bhole: Post-Covid, all major themes and sectors have had their moments in the sun and are now trading at fair to high valuations. The triggers that powered past sectoral rallies have largely played out. As the market normalises, future returns will likely be driven by individual stock selection rather than broad sector bets. At a sub-sector level, we are constructive on areas like quick commerce, hospitals, power transmission & distribution, EMS, and large private banks and NBFCs. On a contrarian note, the IT sector—supported by stronger-than-expected US corporate health and good dividend yields—could also present interesting opportunities. Given current earnings momentum, macro tailwinds, and political stability bets, is Nifty 30,000 a realistic target by end of FY26? Bhole: At the macro level, India is in a strong position. However, this must begin to reflect in corporate profitability as well. After the recent rally, Indian markets are once again trading at 21–22x forward PE, which requires significantly higher earnings growth than the current pace. Earnings may pick up with rising disposable incomes, continued capex, and structural reforms. However, global trade dynamics and economic trends pose external risks. Major economies like China and Europe could begin attracting more capital depending on tariff negotiations and monetary/fiscal policy shifts, given their relative valuation advantage. The US fiscal situation and dollar strength will also influence capital flows and asset prices globally. Investors have been caught between two battlefronts lately—the global trade tariff war and near war-like tensions between India and Pakistan. Now that both seem to be easing, what are the key takeaways for investors from this double dose of geopolitical anxiety? Bhole: In the long run, stock prices are ultimately anchored to earnings growth. In the short run, markets often overreact to news and sentiment. Over the past five years, we've witnessed events that typically unfold over a decade—or even a century. From the Covid pandemic and wars to supply chain shocks, dramatic progress in computing and AI, and aggressive fiscal moves by the US—markets have endured and evolved through all of it. The key takeaway for investors is to adapt to new realities while staying grounded in timeless investing principles. Studying market history helps investors manage their behaviour better. Patience, systematic investing, and the ability to exploit fear and greed cycles are essential to achieving long-term investing goals. top videos View all Disclaimer: The views and investment tips by experts in this report are their own and not those of the website or its management. Users are advised to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions. About the Author Varun Yadav Varun Yadav is a Sub Editor at News18 Business Digital. He writes articles on markets, personal finance, technology, and more. He completed his post-graduation diploma in English Journalism from the Indian More Stay updated with all the latest news on the Stock Market, including market trends, Sensex and Nifty updates, top gainers and losers, and expert analysis. Get real-time insights, financial reports, and investment strategies—only on News18. tags : India Stock Market Nifty stock market Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: June 01, 2025, 15:00 IST News business » markets Indian Equity Market Nears Lifetime Highs: Fundamentals Or FOMO? Market Expert Bhole Weighs In


News18
15-05-2025
- Business
- News18
Kotak Mahindra AMC's Credit Fund Raises Over Rs 1200 Cr In First Close
Last Updated: Kotak Mahindra AMC announces the first close of its Kotak Credit Opportunities Fund, raising over Rs 1200 cr. Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company announces the first close of its Kotak Credit Opportunities Fund, raising over Rs 1200 cr (USD 141.36 million) from High Net Worth Individuals (HNIs), Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNIs), Family Offices, Corporate Treasuries, and Institutional investors. The Fund, targeting a corpus of Rs 2000 crores (including a greenshoe option), has successfully surpassed the Rs 1200 crore mark in its first close. The Kotak Credit Opportunities Fund aims to support emerging corporates by providing solution capital focused on enhancing productivity, boosting manufacturing capabilities, and offering a platform for consolidation. This initiative is designed to foster growth and innovation within the corporate sector, contributing to the overall economic development of the country. Nilesh Shah, Managing Director of Kotak Mahindra AMC, expressed satisfaction with the investor response. He emphasized the commitment to delivering value and supporting the growth of emerging corporates through strategic investments. Shah highlighted the enduring potential of private credit in India. advetisement Saurabh Tripathi, Chief Investment Officer of Private Credit at Kotak Mahindra AMC, noted the significant rise of private credit globally and in India. He pointed out the acceptance and necessity of enabling strategies like performing credit under the AIF platform for emerging corporates, acting as solution capital and providing investment opportunities for investors. The Fund is a SEBI-registered Category II Alternate Investment Fund (AIF) aimed at providing solution capital to emerging Indian companies with strategic, opportunistic, and growth needs. It targets profitable businesses with cash flows to service financial obligations and an evolved business with vintage. Leveraging deep industry expertise and a vast network at Kotak AMC, the Fund identifies medium and long-term industry trends to build a robust portfolio. This approach fosters sustainable growth and creates significant value for investors, positioning the Fund as a key player in the country's economic development and an attractive investment for reliable returns. Watch India Pakistan Breaking News on CNN News18. Stay updated with all the latest business news, including market trends, stock updates, tax, IPO, banking finance, real estate, savings and investments. Get in-depth analysis, expert opinions, and real-time updates—only on News18. Also Download the News18 App to stay updated! First Published: May 15, 2025, 12:22 IST


Time of India
15-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Kotak Mahindra AMC's Kotak Credit Opportunities Fund announces first close with over Rs 1,200 crore raise
Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company has announced the first close of its maiden credit Alternative Investment Fund ( AIF ), the Kotak Credit Opportunities Fund . The fund has achieved its first close by raising over Rs 1,200 crore (USD 141.36 million) from High Net Worth Individuals ( HNIs ), Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNIs), Family Offices, Corporate Treasuries, and Institutional investors. This milestone represents the magnificent first close by any performing credit fund in the Indian private credit industry, reflecting strong investor confidence under the leadership of Kotak Mahindra AMC and the Kotak Group, according to a release by the fund house. Also Read | MF Tracker: Can this smallcap mutual fund add value to your portfolio? Best MF to invest Looking for the best mutual funds to invest? Here are our recommendations. View Details » The Kotak Credit Opportunities Fund, which has a target corpus of Rs 2,000 crore (inclusive of greenshoe option ), has successfully surpassed the USD 141.36 million (Rs 1,200 crore) mark in its first close itself. This significant achievement underscores Kotak Mahindra AMC's commitment to its investor-first approach and its robust asset management capabilities while being part of India's structural growth trajectory. Live Events The fund aims to support emerging corporates by providing solution capital, with a focus on enhancing productivity, boosting manufacturing capabilities, and offering a platform for consolidation. This strategic initiative is designed to foster growth and innovation within the corporate sector, contributing to the overall economic development of the country "We are thrilled with the overwhelming response from our investors. This first close to our AIF business is a testament to the trust and confidence that our investors have in our vision and capabilities. We remain committed to delivering value and supporting the growth of emerging corporations through strategic investments. We are confident in the enduring potential of private credit in India for years to come," said Nilesh Shah , Managing Director of Kotak Mahindra AMC. "We have witnessed the significant rise of private credit on a global scale as well as in India. We find acceptance and need of enabler strategies like performing credit under AIF platform especially for Emerging corporates-- both in terms of acting as solution capital while providing investment opportunities to investors," said Saurabh Tripathi, Chief Investment Officer of Private Credit at Kotak Mahindra AMC. Also Read | Nippon India Small Cap Fund exits IndusInd Bank, Adani Wilmar, 3 other stocks in April The fund is a SEBI registered Category II Alternate Investment Fund (AIF), and its objective is to provide solution capital to emerging Indian companies with strategic, opportunistic, and growth needs. It targets profitable businesses with cash flows to service financial obligations and an evolved business with vintage. Leveraging deep industry expertise and a vast network at Kotak AMC, the fund identifies medium and long-term industry tailwinds to build a robust portfolio. This approach fosters sustainable growth and creates significant value for investors, positioning the Fund as a key player in the country's economic development and an attractive investment for reliable, impactful returns, said the release. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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Business Standard
09-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Nilesh Shah of Kotak AMC's market strategy as India, Pakistan war escalates
Shah suggests investors stick to the basics and focus on quality stocks that are available at reasonable valuations. Look at stocks with good float. Puneet Wadhwa New Delhi Indian stock markets have had to deal with geopolitical developments between India and Pakistan on one hand, and tariff-related fears on the other in the last few weeks. NILESH SHAH, managing director at Kotak Mahindra AMC, tells Puneet Wadhwa in a telephonic conversation that if there's no escalation and the conflict remains limited, the markets will emerge the March 2024 quarter corporate results been weak and FPIs remained sellers, the markets could have dropped by 10 per cent, he said. Edited excerpts: Do you think the market has responded in a measured way to recent geopolitical developments between India and Pakistan? Yes, I do think so. Let's set aside geopolitics for a moment. First, quarterly results from 108 companies have exceeded expectations. Now, one can argue that good results come early, and bad ones later — but the fact remains, actual numbers beat estimates. Second, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs), who weren't expected to buy, have turned buyers and are purchasing in significant volumes — openly and not quietly. On the supply side, there's no major IPO or QIP activity; it's primarily retail and HNIs booking profits. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) are still net buyers. So, flows and fundamentals have turned favorable. That apart, the India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is a win-win, especially for segments like garments, electronics, and mobile phones — areas where India wasn't previously strong. It positions us well for future negotiations with the EU and US, making the China+1 strategy a real opportunity. In essence, flows and fundamentals are supporting the market and that's why they have have reacted with maturity. Had results been weak and FPIs remained sellers, the markets could have dropped by 10 per cent. What about the impact of geopolitical conflict? In limited conflicts like Kargil, the market actually went up — over 30 per cent. We've seen wars in 1962, 1965, 1971, and 1999. Our anchoring is based on this history — that limited conflict does not severely impact markets. This is the bias we are working with: that this is still a limited conflict, not a full-scale war. Plus, Pakistan doesn't have the resources — no money, limited ammunition, and no major global support apart from countries like China, Turkey, or Azerbaijan. Turkey and Azerbaijan don't matter; China does, but the extent of its support is uncertain. Markets prefer a low-intensity conflict over a full-scale war. So with geopolitics on one side and tariff uncertainty on the other, the markets are stuck in a range? Undoubtedly yes. The Indian stock markets are stuck in a chakravyuh. Our market is already trading at fair value — even slightly above. We're at 21–22x forward earnings, and not at 18x. So, the returns will be lower — around 8–10 per cent. That's a day's movement for Indian stocks on a volatile day. We're in a range-bound, slow-grind market. However, except for geopolitical risks, everything else is in our favor — hence the market's moderate reaction. If there's no escalation and the conflict remains limited, markets will emerge from this stronger. But if events go against market expectations, markets will need to readjust. Are there any assumptions that the markets are working with at this stage? Yes, and these include the belief that the US will eventually cut interest rates, there will not be major tariff issues with India, domestic growth will continue and key government schemes like Ladli Behna or others will not dent or derail growth. These assumptions are already baked into the market. From a strategy perspective, should one look at defensive or look at high beta plays in the current markets? I suggest investors stick to the basics and focus on quality stocks that are available at reasonable valuations. Look at stocks with good float — some stocks have not fallen simply because they don't have enough float, so prices remain sticky. Any sectors that should be on investor's radar? Sector-wise, consumer discretionary looks promising. ₹1 lakh crore in tax cuts is now in people's hands — most will spend, and not save. Interest rates have dropped by 0.5 per cent, and might drop another 0.5 per cent. Oil prices are in the $60–65 range. We could see petrol/diesel price cuts closer to Bihar elections— directly putting money in people's pockets. The 8th Pay Commission is expected in 2027 — and people will start spending in anticipation. So, over the next 24–36 months, you have multiple tailwinds — tax cuts, EMI relief, fuel price cuts, and pay commission expectations — all supporting consumption. And consumption will be less about roti, kapda, makaan and more about experiences — airlines, tourism, hotels. Do you think uncertainty could also drive people towards gold? That's already happening. Central banks are buying gold in huge quantities — 1000 tons. Indian housewives / households, too, will support buying to some extent. So yes, we'll see strong support for gold.


News18
27-04-2025
- Business
- News18
Gold Near Rs 1 Lakh: Should You Invest Or Wait? Experts Share Insights
Gold prices dropped after a recent high due to profit-taking and Trump's softer stance on China tariffs. Experts suggest maintaining gold for portfolio stability. Gold Investment: Gold prices have experienced a notable drop after reaching a record high recently. This decline is largely attributed to profit-taking and the softer stance on China tariffs by President Trump. Still, experts suggest that investing in gold now, despite the recent surge, can be a wise strategy for diversifying portfolios and safeguarding against economic uncertainties. However, it is crucial for investors to evaluate their financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon before proceeding. Strategic Investment In Gold Satish Dondapati, a Fund Manager at Kotak Mahindra AMC, recommends that investors maintain 10-15% of their investment in gold at any given time. This allocation can help reduce overall portfolio risk, protect against inflation, and provide stability during economic uncertainties. Risks Of Investing At High Prices Parag Shah, CEO of Kisna Diamond and Gold Jewellery, acknowledges that while gold prices are elevated, the metal retains significant cultural, emotional, and financial value. This is especially true during occasions like Akshaya Tritiya, when buying gold is considered auspicious. For individuals with clear goals, such as future use, gifting, or wealth preservation, this remains an opportune time to invest. Those who have built a gold portfolio over the years might also find this a fitting moment to rebalance their assets, aligning with their financial goals and avoiding further liabilities. A market correction could be impending, as international syndicates are aware of India's deep emotional connection with gold. After the recent sharp rally, a correction might be triggered by profit booking from large institutions, Shah noted. Although the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, such a correction would likely be a healthy pullback, presenting a buying opportunity rather than indicating weakness. The market is currently hedging against risks, with a noticeable disconnect between genuine consumer demand and price movement. First Published: