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Business Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
Economists cut Thai, Malaysian growth forecasts on trade turmoil
ECONOMISTS have slashed forecasts for growth in Malaysia and Thailand as the export-dependent economies grapple with US President Donald Trump's global trade war. Thailand's gross domestic product is set to expand by 2.1 per cent in 2025, according to the median prediction of 27 economists Bloomberg surveyed in May. That's lower than the 2.8 per cent expected in a February survey, and below last year's 2.5 per cent growth. 'We see the economy would slow down over the next few quarters since the negative impact of trade war would kick in,' Krung Thai Bank's first vice-president Chamadanai Marknual said. Foreign tourists arrivals are also likely to be lower than anticipated, and there will be limited room for additional fiscal stimulus, he said. Malaysia's 2025 GDP is seen expanding just 4.1 per cent, according to the median estimate of 28 economists polled. That's down from a February forecast of 4.7 per cent and a full percentage point slower than last year's expansion of 5.1 per cent. Second-quarter growth is expected to come in at 4.2 per cent, from a prior forecast of 4.5 per cent. 'Malaysia's economic growth is set to moderate further over the course of 2025,' Han Teng Chua, senior economist at DBS Bank, said, adding that exports will face headwinds from heightened global trade tensions. The surveys underscore the extent to which South-east Asia, one of the world's fastest-growing regions, is being hit by both levies on exports to the US and the broader slowdown in global trade. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up In Malaysia, domestic demand will remain resilient due to supportive household spending and sustained investment expansion, Chua said. Inflation is contained, likely providing room for Bank Negara Malaysia to loosen monetary policy in the second half of this year, the economist said. Malaysia's central bank said earlier this month that it has policy room to act, as it expects growth to fall below the official forecast this year. The Thai economy will probably post growth of 2.4 per cent in the second quarter from a year earlier, down from the previous forecast of a 2.8 per cent expansion. Earlier this month, Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Council said GDP will likely expand in a range of 1.3 to 2.3 per cent in 2025, with growth constrained by high household and corporate debt burdens. BLOOMBERG
Zawya
3 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Asian stocks climb on Wall Street boost, currencies waver against strong dollar
Reuters - Emerging Asian stock markets advanced on Wednesday, mirroring Wall Street's overnight gains, while currencies were tepid after strong economic data buoyed the dollar, despite lingering concerns about the U.S. fiscal health and trade policies. Philippine stocks jumped 0.7%, while the Singapore market climbed 0.6% to a two-week peak. South Korean shares ended up 1.3% at a more than three-month closing high. U.S. President Donald Trump backed away over the weekend from his threat to slap 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union next month, agreeing to extend the deadline until July 9. U.S. consumer confidence data coming in much better-than-expected added to the optimism, helping stocks on Wall Street surge overnight as investors returned from a three-day extended weekend. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, also inched up 0.2%, adding to Tuesday's 0.6% advance. Positive developments from across the world, including the progress in the U.S.–EU talks and speculation that the Japanese government could adjust its level of bond issuance, seem to have driven the demand for U.S. assets, Maybank analysts said. "The gains in U.S. assets came on the back of strong economic data overnight, which some market concerns about the country's fiscal outlook," Poon Panichpibool, a market strategist at Krung Thai Bank, said. "However, it could just be a brief moment of rebound," he said, adding that fiscal concerns could flare up depending on how the U.S. Senate votes on Trump's tax-cut bill that is expected to add to the debt pile in the world's largest economy. Emerging Asian currencies, which have benefited from broader weakness in the greenback this month, were subdued on Wednesday. The Indian rupee weakened 0.2%, while the Singapore dollar appreciated marginally. The South Korean won was largely flat at 1,376.40. Investors are now focused on the Bank of Korea's monetary policy decision on Thursday, where the central bank is expected to lower its key rate by 25 basis points after economic activity contracted last quarter and April inflation came closer to the central bank's target. "Board members are likely to focus on tariff impact on growth, U.S.-Korea trade talks, and recent KRW appreciation," analysts at BofA Global Research said. In Malaysia, the ringgit and equities edged up 0.1% each. Malaysia's Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli said he had submitted his resignation, after losing a contest for the deputy presidency of the premier's political party. HIGHLIGHTS: ** ASEAN leaders agree tariff deals with the U.S. should not harm fellow members ** U.S. trade deal could boost Indian exports, government report says ** Demand at Japan's 40-year bond auction sinks as fiscal doubts prevail Asia stock indexes and currencies at 0724 GMT COUNTRY FX RIC FX DAILY FX YTD % INDEX STOCKS STOCKS % DAILY YTD % % Japan +0.03 +8.94 0.00 -5.44 China India -0.24 +0.09 -0.13 4.86 Indonesi -0.09 -1.20 0.04 1.72 a Malaysia +0.12 +5.63 0.09 -6.99 Philippi -0.06 +4.56 0.64 -1.58 nes Singapor +0.00 +5.95 0.44 3.32 e Taiwan +0.19 +9.65 0.10 -7.28 Thailand +0.14 +4.88 0.21 -16.74 Reuters
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Thai growth likely slowed in first quarter on weak investment and consumption: Reuters poll
By Rahul Trivedi BENGALURU (Reuters) - Economic growth in Thailand likely slowed in the first quarter, weighed down by subdued private investment, weaker household consumption and a drop in tourism, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy was forecast to expand 2.9% on average in the three months to March 31 from the same period a year earlier, the May 8–14 poll of 20 economists showed. Estimates ranged between 2.2% and 3.8%. The economy grew 3.2% in the fourth quarter. The government is scheduled to release the data on May 19. Tepid domestic demand and softening tourist arrivals from China were partly cushioned by stronger exports and higher government spending, a Bank of Thailand report said late last month. Private investment - which shrank 1.6% last year - was a drag on the economy in the previous quarter. On a quarterly basis, gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew a seasonally adjusted 0.6%, slightly faster than the 0.4% increase in the quarter ended December 31, a smaller poll sample showed. "Private investment could be a drag on the economy in the first quarter because a lot of businesses seem to have falling confidence," said Poon Panichpibool, a markets strategist at Krung Thai Bank. Panichpibool said the main driver of first-quarter growth would still be exports, which had been expanding by double digits up until the past few months due to the rush to avoid tariffs. Private consumption would also continue to grow steadily. Thailand faces tariffs of 36% on its exports to the U.S. although the government said it has received a positive response from Washington for a possible trade deal. "Thailand is likely to reach a deal that aligns with a universal 10% tariff, similar to what competitors like Vietnam might agree to. This would limit the disadvantage to Thai exporters," said Amonthep Chawla, head of the research office at CIMB Thai Bank. An April survey showed economists had lowered their 2025 growth forecast to 2.1%, from 2.9% in a January survey. That was above the Bank of Thailand's 2.0% projection in April and the International Monetary Fund's more conservative 1.8% forecast in May. The central bank cut its key rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive time last month to support the economy. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
15-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Thai growth likely slowed in first quarter on weak investment and consumption
BENGALURU, May 15 (Reuters) - Economic growth in Thailand likely slowed in the first quarter, weighed down by subdued private investment, weaker household consumption and a drop in tourism, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy was forecast to expand 2.9% on average in the three months to March 31 from the same period a year earlier, the May 8–14 poll of 20 economists showed. Estimates ranged between 2.2% and 3.8%. The economy grew 3.2% in the fourth quarter. The government is scheduled to release the data on May 19. Tepid domestic demand and softening tourist arrivals from China were partly cushioned by stronger exports and higher government spending, a Bank of Thailand, opens new tab report said late last month. Private investment - which shrank 1.6%, opens new tab last year - was a drag on the economy in the previous quarter. On a quarterly basis, gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew a seasonally adjusted 0.6%, slightly faster than the 0.4% increase in the quarter ended December 31, a smaller poll sample showed. "Private investment could be a drag on the economy in the first quarter because a lot of businesses seem to have falling confidence," said Poon Panichpibool, a markets strategist at Krung Thai Bank. Panichpibool said the main driver of first-quarter growth would still be exports, which had been expanding by double digits up until the past few months due to the rush to avoid tariffs. Private consumption would also continue to grow steadily. Thailand faces tariffs of 36% on its exports to the U.S. although the government said it has received a positive response from Washington for a possible trade deal. "Thailand is likely to reach a deal that aligns with a universal 10% tariff, similar to what competitors like Vietnam might agree to. This would limit the disadvantage to Thai exporters," said Amonthep Chawla, head of the research office at CIMB Thai Bank. An April survey showed economists had lowered their 2025 growth forecast to 2.1%, from 2.9% in a January survey. That was above the Bank of Thailand's 2.0% projection in April and the International Monetary Fund's more conservative 1.8% forecast in May. The central bank cut its key rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive time last month to support the economy.
Business Recorder
01-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Asian currencies: Taiwan dollar leads monthly rally
BENGALURU: Thailand's currency was steady and its stocks extended gains after the central bank cut rates as expected on Wednesday, while the Taiwan dollar led monthly gains among Asian emerging currencies, relieved by a tariff pause in early April. The Thai baht held on to the 0.3% gain after the Bank of Thailand (BOT) cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points. This was its second consecutive rate cut, aimed at boosting the economy through persisting uncertainties over US tariffs. The looming threat of 36% tariffs by the United States and a major earthquake last month have undermined business confidence in the Southeast Asian country. The earthquake affected the country's tourism outlook and it is expected to report fewer Chinese tourists this year, said Poon Panichpibool, a Bangkok-based markets strategist with Krung Thai Bank. The BOT was expected to maintain its easing bias as worries about headwinds from global trade and its potential hit to the Thai economy persisted, said Tim Waterer, a market analyst at KCM Trade. The rate cut gave the Thai stock market a fillip too, helping it rise as much as 1.2% after the policy announcement from 0.8% before. Elsewhere, the Taiwan dollar and South Korean won were on track to gain the most in April among their regional peers, on account of both the nation's trade-reliant economies getting a breather from Trump's tariffs due to the pause. 'The Taiwan dollar appeared to have been supported by exporter flows,' said Frances Cheung, head of FX and rates strategy at OCBC Bank. 'There might also have been some spill-over from increased hedging activities in the forwards onto spot. Both increases in exporter flows and hedging are partly due to a soft dollar view.' The Singapore dollar and the Malaysian ringgit gained 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively, in April while the Vietnamese dong and Indonesian rupiah slipped 1.6% and 0.3%, respectively. Equities in emerging Asia were upbeat, led by the Philippines, where the benchmark index jumped 1.6% to its highest since January. On Tuesday, Fitch Ratings reaffirmed its BBB investment-grade rating with a stable outlook, reflecting the country's resilience amid ongoing global uncertainties. The peso was trading 0.4% higher on Wednesday. Stocks in Indonesia were set for their best month since August 2024, while shares in Thailand were on track for a monthly gain for the first time in five months.
