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The Hindu
15-05-2025
- Business
- The Hindu
Unemployment rate at 5.1%, increase in women labour force: PLFS data show
According to the first monthly bulletin of the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), released here on Thursday by the Union Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation under a revamped method, the unemployment Rate (UR) in current weekly status (CWS) in the country among persons of age 15 years and above was 5.1% in April, 2025. UR among males in the country was higher at 5.2% compared to the female UR of 5.0%. The rural unemployment rate for all persons in all ages was 4.5% and the urban unemployment 6.5%. The urban unemployment rate among females in the age between 15 and 29 years was 23.7%. The revamped model assesses employment and unemployment data from rural areas too. The Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR) in CWS among persons of age 15 years and above was 55.6% during the period. LFPR in rural areas was 58.0% and in urban areas it was 50.7% for in April for persons of the same age group. While LFPR for males above 15 years in rural and urban areas were respectively 79.0% and 75.3% during April, among females the LFPR in rural areas was 38.2% and 25.7% in urban areas. Worker Population Ratio (WPR) in rural areas among persons of age 15 years and above was 55.4%. 'WPR in urban areas among persons of the same age group was 47.4% with the overall WPR at the country level observed as 52.8% during April, 2025. WPR for female of age 15 years and above for rural and urban areas were respectively 36.8% and 23.5% in April, 2025 and the overall female WPR of the same age group at the country level was observed as 32.5%,' the Ministry said in the release. Commenting on the revamped PLFS, labour economist Sridhar Kundu said it is a big effort of the Union government to track the employment status monthly in the case of urban areas and quarterly, from both rural and urban areas. 'Importantly, the size of sample households has increased, which can help provide better information about the labour market and its seasonality factor. 'Yes, of course, the government is putting enough resources into this cause. But what is the broader objective? Can the information help make better policy decisions? What is the roadmap to deal with the mixed labour force, both skilled and unskilled? Second, the PLFS usually fails to provide adequate information about the functioning of the labour market-oriented government schemes, such as MGNREGA and others. 'The survey does not cover information about wage rates in various sectors and sub-sectors. The survey should address these areas adequately,' Dr. Kundu sad.
Business Recorder
25-04-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
India economic outlook dims further as US tariffs dent business sentiment: Reuters poll
BENGALURU: The Indian economy will grow a bit slower than previously thought this fiscal year, according to economists in a Reuters poll who said U.S. tariffs have negatively impacted business sentiment, raising concerns about already weak private investment. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the world's fifth-largest economy is expected to average 6.3% this fiscal year, according to an April 15-24 Reuters poll of 54 economists, the same pace as expected for the year just ended. This fiscal year's forecast is a downgrade from 6.5% in a March poll but is slightly above the International Monetary Fund's recently-updated forecast for 6.2%. But it is a dramatic slowdown from the fiscal year 2023-24 when the economy grew 9.2%. Economists say beneath the headline growth numbers is an economy not generating enough well-paying jobs for millions of young people entering the labour market every year. Despite the government stepping up its infrastructure spending, private sector investment has largely remained stagnant over the past decade which has generated growth well below the economy's true potential. A proposed 26% U.S. tariff on Indian goods imports, currently paused for 90 days, is also not helping even though most of India's exports to the U.S. are services. 'Middle-class Indians are struggling. Residential building sales, passenger vehicles and two-wheelers (sales) have declined… It is important domestic policies focus on the root cause,' said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale. Kundu said 'India needs a 1991 moment,' referring to a landmark campaign by former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, then finance minister, to open up the economy to encourage foreign investment and competition. 'We believe the tariff war offers a perfect opportunity for India to embark on this much-needed journey. Otherwise, despite being the fastest-growing large economy in the current low global growth environment, India is likely to fall significantly short of its long-term objective of becoming a developed nation.' Asked how U.S. tariffs have affected business sentiment in India 60% of economists, 21 of 35, said the impact was negative or very negative. Fourteen said it was neutral. 'Business sentiment has certainly taken a hit because no business today wants to take a call under an uncertain and volatile environment…(and) investment is the most adversely affected component on account of trade tariffs,' said Kanika Pasricha, chief economic advisor at Union Bank of India. 'Sectors that were actually willing to invest like renewables, refineries, steel and cement to some extent are unlikely to elongate their capital expenditure plans.' With U.S. recession fears rising and consumer inflation remaining below the 4% medium-term target for the past two months the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) mild rate-cutting cycle is expected to end in August at 5.50%, a quarter-point lower than the previous survey. The RBI is widely expected to cut rates for a third consecutive meeting in June to 5.75%. 'The unexpected drop in inflation… has created greater scope for monetary policy support to growth,' said Dhiraj Nim, economist at ANZ. Consumer inflation was expected to average 4.0% this fiscal year before rising to 4.3% next year.
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Business Standard
25-04-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
India's economic outlook dims as US tariffs hit business sentiment: Poll
The Indian economy will grow a bit slower than previously thought this fiscal year, according to economists in a Reuters poll who said US tariffs have negatively impacted business sentiment, raising concerns about already weak private investment. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the world's fifth-largest economy is expected to average 6.3 per cent this fiscal year, according to an April 15-24 Reuters poll of 54 economists, the same pace as expected for the year just ended. This fiscal year's forecast is a downgrade from 6.5 per cent in a March poll but is slightly above the International Monetary Fund's recently-updated forecast for 6.2 per cent. But it is a dramatic slowdown from the fiscal year 2023-24 when the economy grew 9.2 per cent. Economists say beneath the headline growth numbers is an economy not generating enough well-paying jobs for millions of young people entering the labour market every year. Despite the government stepping up its infrastructure spending, private sector investment has largely remained stagnant over the past decade which has generated growth well below the economy's true potential. A proposed 26 per cent US tariff on Indian goods imports, currently paused for 90 days, is also not helping even though most of India's exports to the US are services. "Middle-class Indians are struggling. Residential building sales, passenger vehicles and two-wheelers (sales) have declined... It is important domestic policies focus on the root cause," said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale. Kundu said "India needs a 1991 moment," referring to a landmark campaign by former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, then finance minister, to open up the economy to encourage foreign investment and competition. "We believe the tariff war offers a perfect opportunity for India to embark on this much-needed journey. Otherwise, despite being the fastest-growing large economy in the current low global growth environment, India is likely to fall significantly short of its long-term objective of becoming a developed nation." Asked how US tariffs have affected business sentiment in India 60 per cent of economists, 21 of 35, said the impact was negative or very negative. Fourteen said it was neutral. "Business sentiment has certainly taken a hit because no business today wants to take a call under an uncertain and volatile environment...(and) investment is the most adversely affected component on account of trade tariffs," said Kanika Pasricha, chief economic advisor at Union Bank of India. "Sectors that were actually willing to invest like renewables, refineries, steel and cement to some extent are unlikely to elongate their capital expenditure plans." With US recession fears rising and consumer inflation remaining below the 4 per cent medium-term target for the past two months the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) mild rate-cutting cycle is expected to end in August at 5.50 per cent, a quarter-point lower than the previous survey. The RBI is widely expected to cut rates for a third consecutive meeting in June to 5.75 per cent. "The unexpected drop in inflation... has created greater scope for monetary policy support to growth," said Dhiraj Nim, economist at ANZ. Consumer inflation was expected to average 4.0 per cent this fiscal year before rising to 4.3 per cent next year.
Reuters
25-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
India economic outlook dims further as US tariffs dent business sentiment: Reuters poll
BENGALURU, April 25 (Reuters) - The Indian economy will grow a bit slower than previously thought this fiscal year, according to economists in a Reuters poll who said U.S. tariffs have negatively impacted business sentiment, raising concerns about already weak private investment. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the world's fifth-largest economy is expected to average 6.3% this fiscal year, according to an April 15-24 Reuters poll of 54 economists, the same pace as expected for the year just ended. This fiscal year's forecast is a downgrade from 6.5% in a March poll but is slightly above the International Monetary Fund's recently-updated forecast for 6.2%. But it is a dramatic slowdown from the fiscal year 2023-24 when the economy grew 9.2%. Economists say beneath the headline growth numbers is an economy not generating enough well-paying jobs for millions of young people entering the labour market every year. Despite the government stepping up its infrastructure spending, private sector investment has largely remained stagnant over the past decade which has generated growth well below the economy's true potential. A proposed 26% U.S. tariff on Indian goods imports, currently paused for 90 days, is also not helping even though most of India's exports to the U.S. are services. "Middle-class Indians are struggling. Residential building sales, passenger vehicles and two-wheelers (sales) have declined... It is important domestic policies focus on the root cause," said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale. Kundu said "India needs a 1991 moment," referring to a landmark campaign by former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, then finance minister, to open up the economy to encourage foreign investment and competition. "We believe the tariff war offers a perfect opportunity for India to embark on this much-needed journey. Otherwise, despite being the fastest-growing large economy in the current low global growth environment, India is likely to fall significantly short of its long-term objective of becoming a developed nation." Asked how U.S. tariffs have affected business sentiment in India 60% of economists, 21 of 35, said the impact was negative or very negative. Fourteen said it was neutral. "Business sentiment has certainly taken a hit because no business today wants to take a call under an uncertain and volatile environment...(and) investment is the most adversely affected component on account of trade tariffs," said Kanika Pasricha, chief economic advisor at Union Bank of India. "Sectors that were actually willing to invest like renewables, refineries, steel and cement to some extent are unlikely to elongate their capital expenditure plans." With U.S. recession fears rising and consumer inflation remaining below the 4% medium-term target for the past two months the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) mild rate-cutting cycle is expected to end in August at 5.50%, a quarter-point lower than the previous survey. The RBI is widely expected to cut rates for a third consecutive meeting in June to 5.75%. "The unexpected drop in inflation... has created greater scope for monetary policy support to growth," said Dhiraj Nim, economist at ANZ. Consumer inflation was expected to average 4.0% this fiscal year before rising to 4.3% next year. (Other stories from the April Reuters global economic poll)
Time of India
24-04-2025
- Time of India
Bengalis, who contribute around 30% to Kashmir's tourism, accounted for 85% of the cancellations after Pahalgam attack
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel Bengalis are known for their love for travel and contribute to around 25-30% to Kashmir's tourism. However, the terror attack in Pahalgam has led to a barrage of cancellations (almost 85%), claim Travel Agents' Federation of India (TAFI) and tour operators in terror attack has sent shockwaves across Bengal's tourism sector as far as Kashmir is concerned, which has been a major tourist attraction in the last few years. Experts believe that the number of international tourists visiting India will also be impacted as two foreigners were killed in Kashmir's Baisaran estimates that the total percentage of tourists from Bengal who visit Kashmir has been around 25-30%. But now, the cancellations have touched 80-85%.'The impact of the terror attack on tourism is huge. People never thought that a lay man or tourist could be killed while he was on a holiday. You go there and return in a coffin. Till the time the government takes action, tourists will be apprehensive about travelling to destinations like Kashmir,' Anil Punjabi, a national committee member of the TAFI, told ET.'Around 80-85% bookings to Kashmir have been cancelled. Only 15% are on hold. When things are peaceful, you go on holidays. Offline agents will not recommend Kashmir unless there is security for the travellers,' Punjabi sentiment remains the same across the country. 'The worst part is that two foreigners have died. Outside India, they are showcasing terror in India. They don't know Kashmir, but India. The entire India is projected as negative for travelling. We will not get foreign tourists and there will be currency loss as well," Punjabi told had returned to normal and post-pandemic, tourism had seen a Kundu, owner of Kolkata-based Explore India travel agency, told ET, that the demand has been so big that bookings for 2026 January and February were full and multiple trips had already been booked.'We were unable to accommodate people. The same happened in February this year. From May till August, during the peak season, the bookings were choc-a-bloc. Now, there are cancellations but also requests for rerouting to Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and other destinations. Today only, we have received such requests. We will not recommend Kashmir due to the safety of tourists. We are suggesting alternative tourist destinations such as Himachal Pradesh, Spiti or Ladakh.'Kundu said the fear factor is high. 'However, some have reached Kashmir and want to complete the trip, but want to avoid Pahalgam. Some have gone to Sonmarg and Gulmarg today. We have a group from Kharagpur who are in Kashmir now. We have removed Pahalgam from their itinerary and the expenditure will be deducted and refunded. We are in constant contact with the groups in Kashmir," he said.
