Latest news with #LONGWEI


Forbes
08-07-2025
- Business
- Forbes
China's HQ-9B Challenges Russia's Middle East Air Defense Market Share
HQ-9B, an advanced two-stage air defence system with multi-target anti-jamming capabilities, ... More exhibited at the airshow in Zhuhai in south China's Guangdong province Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024. (LONG WEI / Feature China/Future Publishing via Getty Images) If recent reports are accurate, China has begun to give Russia significant competition in the lucrative Middle Eastern and North African arms market, especially when it comes to exports of air defense systems. Iran has received Chinese surface-to-air missile systems since the recent 12-day war with Israel, the London-based Middle East Eye outlet reported Monday, citing Arab officials. It's unclear how many systems or which type Iran has received, although the report states Tehran is paying with oil shipments. The HQ-9 is China's version of the Russian S-300, and the HQ-9B is an extended-range version. Export variants are known as the FD-2000 and FD-2000B, respectively. Any timely delivery of the HQ-9B/FD-2000B, in particular, to Tehran would send a strong signal to Moscow. Until recently, the most advanced air defense system Iran ever imported was the Russian S-300 PMU-2, which Tehran received in 2016. However, in two rounds of strikes in April and October 2024, Israel disabled the majority, if not the entirety, of Iran's S-300 arsenal without suffering any losses. The 12-day war in June likely destroyed any of the remaining S-300 components. Iran paid approximately $1 billion for these missile defense systems and waited almost a decade for delivery. Aside from its disappointment with the S-300's performance, Tehran is undoubtedly frustrated with Russia's non-delivery of Su-35 Flanker fighter jets that it ordered and paid for early in this decade. Such disappointment, coupled with an urgent need to rebuild its air defense, may prompt Iran to pursue China's Chengdu J-10C Vigorous Dragon fighter instead, especially if it's satisfied with Beijing's prompt delivery of surface-to-air missiles in its urgent time of need. The reported Iran SAM delivery came little more than a week after retired high-ranking Egyptian military official Samir Farag confirmed Egypt's acquisition of the HQ-9B in an interview with Egypt's Sada El-Balad TV. The Diplomat also reported in May that Cairo had confirmed purchasing the HQ-9B and speculated Beijing 'may use Y-20 aircraft to deliver HQ-9B systems to Egypt, just as it previously transported HQ-22 air defense missile systems to Serbia when the landlocked European country was virtually isolated.' The last comparable strategic air defense system Egypt ordered was Russia's S-300VM system in the mid-2010s. In the intervening decade, it has also ordered medium-range IRIS-T systems from Germany, which it displayed for the first time in October 2024. Choosing the HQ-9B over additional S-300VMs aligns with Cairo's consistent preference for diversifying its military arsenal as much as feasible. Nevertheless, it's also a way of hedging against chronic delays in Russia's supply of spare parts of technical support for foreign operators of Russian military hardware in the wake of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. After all, if Egypt's S-300VMs became inoperable, that could severely undermine its overall strategic air defense if it lacked any alternative and comparable system such as the HQ-9B. Furthermore, Egypt canceled its 2018 order for Su-35 out of fear of incurring American sanctions. China's recent deployment of J-10Cs to Egypt for a joint exercise fueled speculation that Cairo might acquire that Chinese jet instead, which would mark another win for Beijing over Moscow in the region. Algeria recently took delivery of some Su-35s originally built for Egypt from the same batch many speculated Iran would ultimately receive. Algiers still purchases a majority of its military hardware from Russia and reportedly recently acquired the more sophisticated Russian S-400 to enhance its air defense, which already includes S-300s. Incidentally, Algeria's neighbor and rival, Morocco, may have acquired the FD-2000B in 2021. With the conspicuous exception of Algeria, interest in Russia's strategic S-300 and S-400 systems might have already peaked throughout the wider region. Russia withdrew the S-300 system that it nominally delivered to Syria over two years before the regime of Bashar al-Assad finally collapsed in December 2024. Iran's S-300s have gone up in smoke and, if the Middle East Eye report proves accurate, won't be replaced by additional S-300s or even newer S-400s, especially if China has proven willing to supply HQ-9Bs or another comparable system like the HQ-22. In an exceptional and exceptionally costly move, NATO member Turkey received S-400s in 2019 but never put them in service nor exercised its option to acquire a second batch. Those Russian systems remain in storage as Ankara again attempts to regain admission into the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, from which Washington suspended it due to that contentious acquisition. While Russia marketed its S-300s and S-400s to the Arab Gulf states, none of them ultimately purchased any, even though the United Arab Emirates and, much more recently and secretly, Saudi Arabia did acquire medium-range Russian Pantsir-S1s. However, these states aren't opting for Chinese systems either. Saudi Arabia inaugurated its first company for its U.S.-made THAAD systems on July 2. Additionally, both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have ordered the medium-range KM-SAM from South Korea in recent years, as has Iraq, which considered purchasing the S-400 in 2018. At least two recent Middle Eastern buyers of high-end Russian air defenses have reportedly turned to China for surface-to-air capabilities. In Iran's case, it may never trust Russia as a supplier again due to the Su-35 case, nor trust the reliability of Russian weapons due to the devastating S-300 losses it has endured. In Egypt's case, it may not opt for Russian air defenses again due to the risk of incurring U.S. sanctions. On the other hand, Turkey's S-400 acquisition was a one-off that Ankara may now privately regret, although it is unlikely to lead the NATO member to consider buying Chinese systems. Ankara had previously ordered the FD-2000 in 2013 as part of a $3.4 billion joint production agreement that it later canceled under pressure from the U.S. and NATO. Today, it appears that China may have begun making rapid inroads in those very same parts of the Middle Eastern arms market that Russia, for various reasons, has recently been losing out on, possibly for good.


Forbes
17-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
ASML Stock To $400?
SHANGHAI, CHINA - MARCH 26 2025: A billboard promoting ASML Twinscan lithography platform during the ... More SEMICON China 2025 in Shanghai, China Wednesday, March 26, 2025. (Photo credit should read LONG WEI / Feature China/Future Publishing via Getty Images) ASML (NASDAQ; ASML), a leading Dutch semiconductor equipment company, recently released its first-quarter results, triggering a 7% stock decline on Wednesday, April 17th. Despite reporting strong year-over-year growth, the results presented a mixed picture. Separately, check out – Time To Buy Google Stock? Absolutely. Here's Why. On the positive side, ASML exceeded consensus estimates for earnings but slightly missed revenue expectations. The company reported earnings per share of €6.00, surpassing the estimate of €5.86. However, its reported revenue of €7.7 billion was slightly lower than the anticipated €7.8 billion. But most importantly, a key indicator of future demand, net bookings, fell short of expectations. ASML reported net bookings of €3.9 billion, lower than the anticipated €4.3 billion. This shortfall appears to have contributed to the negative market reaction. In their commentary, ASML's management acknowledged the strong underlying demand, particularly driven by the booming artificial intelligence sector. Nevertheless, they highlighted the uncertainty created by tariffs, which is causing some customers to become more cautious. Consequently, the company indicated that it might achieve the lower end of its full-year sales guidance, which ranges from €30-35 billion. Beyond the specifics of ASML's results, broader market conditions are also a concern. The current period is marked by growing economic anxieties in the United States, largely stemming from President Trump's tariff policies. This unfavorable macroeconomic environment poses additional challenges for companies like ASML, and as the management's commentary suggests, the company is unlikely to be immune. This broader context reinforces concerns that ASML's stock price could potentially decline to as low as $400 per share. Here's the thing: in a downturn, ASML can lose; no, there is evidence, from the recent economic downturns, that ASML stock lost as much as 57% of its value over a span of just a few quarters. Now, of course, individual stocks are more volatile than a portfolio, and in this environment, if you seek upside with less volatility than a single stock, consider the High-Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns greater than 91% since inception. Despite the commendable strong growth in ASML's semiconductor business, significant macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds warrant attention. While immediate inflation concerns have eased, the current administration's assertive tariff and immigration policies are reigniting these anxieties, potentially leading to future economic instability. This economic uncertainty is further amplified by heightened geopolitical risks stemming from the administration's policy initiatives, including ongoing trade disputes and strained negotiations with key allies like Canada, Mexico, and Europe, creating a more complex and elevated risk environment. Notably, ASML stock has seen an impact worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during some of the recent downturns —a critical consideration for investors evaluating their risk tolerance in today's volatile environment. While investors have their fingers crossed for a soft landing by the U.S. economy, how bad can things get if there is another recession? Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash captures how key stocks fared during and after the last six market crashes. ASML's stock has experienced a decline of nearly 20% from its February high of around $780, primarily reflecting investor concerns regarding the potential impact of tariffs on the company's business. This downward trend could persist given the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty. Drawing a parallel with the 2022 economic downturn, during which the stock fell by 57%, a similar drop could potentially push ASML's share price below $400. While ASML has demonstrated commendable revenue growth, averaging 15% over the past three years, the stock still commands a premium valuation with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 8x, which is close to its three-year average of 9x. Considering this context, investors holding ASML stock should consider: if the share price were to fall towards $400 or even lower, would you maintain your position or be inclined to sell? Holding on to a falling stock is not always easy. Trefis works with Empirical Asset – a Boston area wealth manager, whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during 2008/2009 timeframe, when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. While investors have their fingers crossed for a soft landing by the U.S. economy, how bad can things get if there is another recession? See the last six market crashes compared. Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios | Rules-Based Wealth