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Fast Company
a day ago
- Business
- Fast Company
Redfin: These 31 major housing markets have shifted to buyer's markets
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. During the pandemic housing boom, housing demand surged rapidly amid ultra-low interest rates, stimulus, and the remote work boom—which increased demand for space and unlocked 'WFH arbitrage' as high earners were able to keep their income from a job in, say, New York City or Los Angeles, and buy a home in, say, Austin or Tampa. Federal Reserve researchers estimate that 'new construction would have had to increase by roughly 300% to absorb the pandemic-era surge in demand.' Unlike housing demand, housing stock supply isn't as elastic and can't ramp up as quickly. As a result, the heightened pandemic era demand drained the market of active inventory and overheated home prices, with U.S. home prices rising a staggering 43.2% between March 2020 and June 2022. Of course, a lot has changed since then. Not long after mortgage rates spiked in 2022 and return-to-office gained a bit of momentum, national demand in the for-sale market pulled back and the pandemic housing boom fizzled out. The longer we've remained in this strained housing demand environment, the more the total number of U.S. active sellers is outmatching the total number of active homebuyers. According to a recent Redfin analysis, there were nearly 490,041 more U.S. home sellers than homebuyers in April 2025. That's the most that home sellers have outmatched homebuyers in over a decade. For comparison, at the height of the Pandemic Housing Boom in April 2022, there were 436,106 more U.S. homebuyers than home sellers. 'The balance of power in the U.S. housing market has shifted toward buyers, but a lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall. Many are still holding out hope that their home is the exception and will fetch top dollar,' writes Redfin economist Asad Khan. 'But as sellers see their homes sit longer on the market and notice fewer buyers coming through on tour, more of them will realize that the market has adjusted and reset their expectations accordingly.' According to Redfin, there's a wide variation across the country. That's something that ResiClub has also previously noted. Most of the softest housing markets where homebuyers have the most power are in the Sun Belt—in particular, pockets of Texas, Florida, Colorado, and Arizona. While the tightest markets where home sellers still have the most power are in pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. While regional variation continues to exist, the housing market across much of the country has, directionally speaking, shifted toward homebuyers over the past year. How did Redfin calculate this? 'The number of sellers in the market is simply active listings, or the total number of homes actively for sale at any point during a given month. Active listings data come from the MLS,' writes Redfin. Redfin economists added that: 'Because there is not a similar metric measuring how many buyers are actively in the market, we developed one. We took active listings and pending sales from the MLS to estimate what fraction of homes on the market will sell within a given month. Analogously, we estimated what fraction of buyers on the market will find a home within a given month using Redfin data on the typical time from first tour to purchase. The ratio of these two data points approximates the ratio of buyers to sellers in the market. We then multiplied that ratio by the number of active listings to get the estimated total number of buyers in the market. Note that our estimate of buyers is not based on Redfin traffic or customer acquisition data, and the purpose of this analysis is to measure the number of buyers and sellers in the housing market as a whole. All metrics that go into our calculation of the number of buyers and sellers in the market are seasonally adjusted.' here).
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
America's housing market is cracking
A version of this article originally appeared in Quartz's members-only Weekend Brief newsletter. Quartz members get access to exclusive newsletters and more. Sign up here. The American housing market, a post-pandemic juggernaut that seemed unstoppable, is finally showing signs of fatigue. After more than two years of relentless price increases, the fundamentals are shifting. Home prices are starting to fall, unsold inventory is piling up to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, and buyers — from first-time purchasers to luxury shoppers — are walking away from deals or demanding steep discounts. The combination of mortgage rates hovering around 7% and mounting economic uncertainty around tariffs has created a host of reasons for a buyer to hesitate. What's emerging is a market where sellers are making concessions and buyers hold the cards — a dramatic reversal from the bidding wars and cash offers that defined the market. Home prices in the 20 biggest U.S. metropolitan areas fell 0.12% in March from the previous month, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. It's a small dip, sure, but it marks the end of a relentless upward march that has defined the housing market since January 2023. The bigger shift is happening in supply. Unsold completed new single-family homes hit 117,000 in April — the highest level since July 2009, according to Census Bureau data analyzed by housing researcher Lance Lambert. That's a 31% jump from the previous year, and it's happening at a time when homebuilders are getting increasingly nervous about demand. Even luxury buyers are backing away. Luxury home sales fell 10% in April from a year earlier, marking the steepest decline since 2023, according to Redfin data. This isn't just about mortgage rates — these are cash buyers and jumbo loan borrowers who theoretically have more financial flexibility. But the retreat among wealthy buyers reflects a broader pattern of anxiety spreading even among the top 5% of U.S. households, with some $7 trillion sitting in money-market funds rather than being deployed into assets like real estate and stocks. For buyers, the landscape is becoming more half of sellers are already offering concessions, according to Redfin, and inventory levels are at the highest point since September 2020. Real estate agents are witnessing the shift in real time. Oregon agent Meme Loggins recently worked with a buyer who successfully negotiated $50,000 off a home's asking price, only to walk away entirely, citing economic uncertainty. 'Everybody wants a deal,' Loggins told Marketplace. 'Everybody's asking for a concession of some sort, either for closing costs, or a fair-sized price reduction, or both.' The geographic picture tells its own story. Texas is leading the correction, with listings hitting 123,000 in April 2025 — 53% higher than normal — making it the fourth most oversupplied housing market in the U.S., according to real estate analyst Nick Gerli. Austin alone has seen a 20.4% fall in home values from pandemic highs, according to Gerli, representing the biggest metro-level correction in America. Florida markets are similarly strained, with metro areas such as Tampa and Jacksonville showing up repeatedly on lists of markets with the most price cuts. Even the Bay Area in California, long considered recession-proof, is showing cracks. In March, about 1,300 new homes hit the market in the San Francisco metropolitan area, but only 780 homes changed status to 'pending' — the largest March gap since at least 2012, according to Redfin. What makes this moment particularly interesting is that it's not just about affordability, though 7% mortgage rates certainly aren't helping. There's a confidence problem brewing, and it's affecting buyers across income levels. Analysts at Citi Research warned that housing activity looks set to contract, potentially signaling a recession ahead, noting that residential investment is 'the most interest rate sensitive sector in the economy.' Federal Housing Finance Agency Director William Pulte has taken notice, urging Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. 'The housing market would be in much better shape' if rates were lowered, Pulte posted on social media. Most analysts expect the trends to continue. Redfin estimates that home prices will fall 1% in the fourth quarter — which would mark the first annual price decrease since 2012. Zillow also expects home values to fall by 1.4% this year. But don't expect a flood of bargains just yet. Many buyers remain priced out by mortgage rates, while homeowners locked into low-rate mortgages from the pandemic era are reluctant to sell and give up their favorable financing. The result is a market caught between hesitant buyers and reluctant sellers — creating the kind of standoff that could keep transaction volumes depressed even as prices moderate only slightly. What's emerging looks less like the frenzied seller's market of recent years and more like a traditional housing market where buyers can negotiate and sellers have to compete. The question now is whether this represents a return to normal — or the early stages of something more severe. For the latest news, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
Fast Company
4 days ago
- Business
- Fast Company
Sellers or buyers housing market? Zillow's analysis for 250 metros
This interactive housing market map shows where sellers—and buyers—have the most power right now, according to Zillow. [Images: Lance Lambert] BY Listen to this Article More info 0:00 / 4:23 Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Zillow economists have an economic model known as the Zillow Market Heat Index to gauge the competitiveness of housing markets across the country. This model looks at key indicators—including home price changes, inventory levels, and days on market—to generate a score showing whether a market favors sellers or buyers. A higher score indicates a hotter metro-level housing market where sellers have more power. A lower score indicates a colder metro-level housing market where buyers have more power. According to Zillow, a score of 70 or above is a strong sellers market, and a score from 55 to 69 is a sellers market. A score of 44 to 55 indicates a neutral market. A score from 28 to 44 reflects a buyers market, and a score of 27 or below is a strong buyers market. Nationally, Zillow rates the U.S. housing market at 55 for its April 2025 reading, published in May 2025, right on the border between a sellers market and a neutral market. That said, Zillow's reading varies significantly across the county. Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 are the hottest markets, where sellers have the most power, according to Zillow: Rochester, NY: 169 Buffalo, NY: 126 Charleston, WV: 107 Syracuse, NY: 105 Hartford, CT: 97 Albany, NY: 97 Manchester, NH: 93 Anchorage, AK: 86 Boston, MA: 85 Lansing, MI: 85 And these 10 are the coldest markets, where buyers have the most power, according to Zillow: Jackson, TN: 23 Macon, GA: 25 Gulfport, MS: 26 Brownsville, TX: 27 Naples, FL: 27 Cape Coral, FL: 30 Daphne, AL: 30 Panama City, FL: 30 Punta Gorda, FL: 31 Beaumont, TX: 33 5 takeaways on Zillow's latest assessment Directionally, there's a lot Zillow gets right. We believe Zillow has correctly identified many regional housing markets where buyers have gained the most leverage—particularly around the Gulf. It also highlights areas where sellers have maintained, relatively speaking, some degree of control, including large portions of the Northeast and Midwest. In ResiClub's view, Zillow is slightly overstating Northeast and Midwest tightness. While there are still some relatively competitive pockets in those regions, Zillow's model appears to exaggerate the strength of seller conditions. In the real world, many of these markets feel more neutral or only slightly tilted toward sellers—not full-blown 'strong sellers markets' as the model suggests. Zillow also appears to be overstating seller strength on the West Coast. Conditions on the West Coast have clearly softened over the past year, and Zillow's model doesn't fully reflect that shift. The softest housing markets right now are Southwest Florida and Central Texas. Based on our own housing market analysis, Florida, in particular, Southwest Florida currently stands out as the softest region in the country, followed by Central Texas markets such as Austin and San Antonio. Zillow's Market Heat Index is useful—but I believe ResiClub's monthly reports—especially our inventory analysis across +800 metros and +3,000 counties and our home price analysis across 800+ metros and 3,000+ counties —do a better job of keeping housing stakeholders ahead of market shifts and better informed on current market dynamics. What did this Zillow analysis look like back in spring 2022 at the climax of the pandemic housing boom? Below is Zillow's April 2022 reading—published in May 2022. The final deadline for Fast Company's Brands That Matter Awards is this Friday, May 30, at 11:59 p.m. PT. Apply today. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Lance Lambert is the co-founder and editor of ResiClub, a media and research company dedicated to in-depth tracking, reporting, and analysis of regional housing markets. He has been publishing his reporting in Fast Company since 2023 More
Fast Company
23-05-2025
- Business
- Fast Company
Housing market shift: 80 major markets that are seeing falling home prices
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. National home prices rose 0.7% year over year between April 2024 and April 2025, according to the Zillow Home Value Index—a decelerated rate from the 4.4% year-over-year rate between April 2023 and April 2024. And more metro-area housing markets are seeing declines. For example, 31 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (10% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading in the January 2024 to January 2025 window. In the February 2024 to February 2025 window, 42 of them (14% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading. In the March 2024 to March 2025 window, that was up to 60 housing markets (20% of markets). And in the most recent reading—the April 2024 to April 2025 window—80 of the nation's 300 largest housing markets (27% of markets) had a falling year-over-year reading. While 27% of the 300 largest housing markets are currently experiencing year-over-year home price declines, that share is gradually increasing as the supply-demand balance continues to shift directionally toward buyers in this affordability-constrained environment. Home prices are still climbing in many regions where active inventory remains well below pre-pandemic levels, such as pockets of the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, some pockets in states like Arizona, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas—where active inventory exceeds pre-pandemic 2019 levels—are seeing modest home price corrections. These year-over-year declines, using the Zillow Home Value Index, are evident in major metros such as Austin (-5.1%); Tampa, Florida (-5.0%); San Antonio (-3.2%); Dallas (-3.0%); Phoenix (-2.8%); Orlando, Florida (-2.8%); Jacksonville, Florida (-2.7%); New Orleans (-2.4); Atlanta (-2.3%); Miami (-2.3%), Denver (-1.8%), and Houston (-1.4%). The markets seeing the most softness—where homebuyers have gained the most leverage—are primarily located in Sun Belt regions, particularly the Gulf Coast and Mountain West. Many of these areas saw major price surges during the pandemic housing boom, with home price growth outpacing local income levels. As pandemic-driven migration slowed and mortgage rates rose, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. This softening trend is further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. Some buyers, who would have previously considered existing homes, are now opting for new homes with more favorable deals. Given the shift in active housing inventory and months of supply, along with the soft level of appreciation in more markets this spring, ResiClub expects the number of metro areas with year-over-year home price declines in the Zillow Home Value Index to continue ticking up in the coming months.
Fast Company
20-05-2025
- Business
- Fast Company
Zillow: Housing market to see first annual U.S. home price drop since 2011
Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert's ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. This week, Zillow economists published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will fall by 0.9% between April 2025 and April 2026. After a series of downward revisions—beginning in January, when Zillow's 12-month national home price forecast was +2.9%, and subsequently lowered each month until reaching -1.7% last month—Zillow has finally stopped downgrading its outlook. That said, it's fair to call the Zillow economist bearish, given that for this forecast to be correct, 2025 would mark the first calendar-year home price decline since 2011. Why did Zillow downgrade its forecast for national home prices so many times this year? 'The rise in [active] listings is fueling softer price growth, as greater supply provides more options and more bargaining power for buyers,' Zillow economists wrote in March. 'Potential buyers are opting to remain renters for longer as affordability challenges suppress demand for home purchases.' Zillow thinks strained housing affordability—caused by U.S. home prices rising over 40% during the pandemic housing boom and mortgage rates spiking from 3% to 6% in 2022—is weighing on price growth. 'Affordability is still challenging buyers. A mortgage payment on a typical home in March required about 35.3% of median household income nationwide when using a 20% down payment,' wrote Zillow chief economist Skylar Olsen last month. 'That's a slight improvement over last year, but is still unaffordable. Spending more than 30% of income on housing is considered a financial burden, and a 20% down payment is a steep entry fee, coming out to about $72,000 on the typical U.S. home.' According to Zillow's home price model, the listing site also believes that weakening and softening housing markets across the Sun Belt will weigh on nationally aggregated home prices this year. Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow expects the strongest home price appreciation between April 2025 and April 2026 to occur in these 10 areas: Atlantic City, NJ: 3.2% Kingston, NY: 2.6% Torrington, CT: 2.4% Knoxville, TN: 2.3% Rochester, NY: 2.2% Syracuse, NY: 2.0% Vineland, NJ: 2.0% Fayetteville, AR: 1.9% Concord, NH: 1.9% Hilton Head Island, SC: 1.8% And these are the 10 housing markets where Zillow expects the weakest home price appreciation over that time period: Houma, LA: -10.2% Lake Charles, LA: -8.4% Alexandria, LA: -7.5% New Orleans, LA: -7.1% Lafayette, LA: -7.0% Shreveport, LA: -6.9% Beaumont, TX: -6.2% Midland, TX: -6.1% Monroe, LA: -5.5% Odessa, TX: -5.3% Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price growth looks like for single-family and condo home prices. Florida is currently the epicenter of housing market weakness right now.
