Latest news with #LauraMartin
Globe and Mail
21 hours ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Analysts: 1 Thing Apple Could Do to Make AAPL Stock a Buy Again Now
Apple (AAPL) remains one of the world's most valuable companies, but recent market performance and analyst sentiment suggest cracks in its premium valuation. Needham downgraded AAPL to 'Hold,' in part based on decelerating earnings growth, constrained innovation in generative AI, and mounting pressures on the commission-based model of the App Store. Analyst Laura Martin also emphasized that Apple could materially improve its bull case by 'aggressively pursuing' advertising revenue, an underdeveloped but potentially lucrative growth channel. With the stock still trading at over 26 times forward earnings, above the company's 10-year median and the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) in general, shareholders are questioning the growth thesis. Apple's Q2 FY2025 results displayed modest gains, with a 5% year-over-year increase in revenue to $95.4 billion and a rise in EPS of 8% to $1.65. Those gains, however, are behind those of competitors such as Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL), which exhibited much greater margin expansion and accelerating revenue. While Apple is still a powerhouse in premium hardware, analysts contend that its ecosystem requires a fresh growth trigger, such as advertising. About Apple Stock Apple (AAPL) is mega-cap tech giant focused on consumer electronics, software, and online services. Based in Cupertino, California, Apple has a market cap above $3 trillion fueled by flagship devices like the iPhone, iPad, and Mac, and cloud-based services like iCloud and Apple Music. AAPL shares have fallen about 21% from their 52-week high point of $260.10, most recently priced at about $205. After a brief recovery, the stock continues to trail the S&P 500's small YTD return of 2.1%. Some analysts now see lower levels, in the range of $170 to $180, as a reasonable point to enter, citing valuation issues and competition concerns. The company is priced at 28.2x forward earnings and 7.66x price-sales. While these are roughly in line with its five-year averages, they are rich valuations that are causing some investors to take a second look. Although Apple does pay a dividend, it is modest at $1.04 per share, and the company's recent share buyback authorization of $100 billion is still the focal point of its capital return policy. Apple Beats Q2 Earnings, But Forward Momentum Slows Apple reported fiscal Q2 results, besting Wall Street forecasts in terms of both revenue and EPS. It reported $95.4 billion in revenue, an increase of 5% year-over-year, and EPS of $1.65, an increase of 8%. Operating cash flow totaled $24 billion, powering a staggering $29 billion return to shareholders in the form of dividends and repurchases. In the future, however, Apple's growth trajectory looks to be less impressive. Already priced in is the iPhone 16e launch, so flat top-line growth is predicted by analysts for fiscal 2025. Further, Apple's heavy exposure to hardware sales makes it susceptible to macroeconomic slowdowns and competition. Regulatory danger also lurks in the wings. Apple's App Store 'platform tax,' a 15%–30% cut on in-app transaction income, is under international scrutiny. Regulators and competitors are trying to dismantle this stream of income, presently one of the major drivers of Services segment profits. What Analysts Project for Apple Stock Apple is graded a 'Moderate Buy' by Barchart's 37 analysts in coverage, but recent sentiment is weaker. The average 12-month target price of AAPL is at $231.02, signaling 13% upside from current prices. The highest estimate is at $300, signaling best-case upside of almost 50%, and the lowest of $141, signaling worst-case downside of roughly 30%. This broad range is a reflection of the unclear path of Apple's growth story.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Apple's two biggest problem areas ahead of its WWDC 2025
Ahead of Apple's (AAPL) 2025 Worldwide Developers Conference kicking off this Monday, June 9, Needham analysts downgraded the iPhone maker from a Buy rating to Hold while removing its price target on the tech stock. Needham & Company senior media and internet analyst Laura Martin — the analyst behind the call — examines several of Apple's biggest problems as it faces pressures in China's consumer market and the team-up between OpenAI and former Apple designer Jony Ive. Here's a look at what to expect from the 2025 WWDC event. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. Let's take a look at Apple here. It's down 19% year to date, the lowest performing member of the magnificent seven and trailing the S&P 500, which is now up for the year. Ahead of Apple's company, uh, Worldwide Developers Conference, Needham and company cut its Apple rating from buy to hold and removed its $225 price target for the stock. We've got the person behind that call, Laura Martin, Needham and Company senior media and internet analyst joining us now. Really appreciate you making the time to break this down for us, Laura. What was the single biggest driver behind this call on Apple? So I think, I think we're focusing on two things. There's like an urgent problem for Apple and then an important problem for Apple. The urgent problem is, a, it's really expensive today at 26 times next year's earnings, which is twice its normal multiple over the last 10 years, and about a 25% premium to the S&P 500. So it's too expensive. Second, there are real risks to their fundamentals over the next 12 months. Not only tariffs, but, um, but also like the Chinese demand, which used to be 19% of their total iPhone sales, went to 17% last year. We expect it to go to 15% of total sales this year. So there, um, there really is issues with the rising nationalism in China and Chinese, uh, consumers buying competitive products and not Apple products. Um, also, we have risk of fundamentals services revenue because you may have seen that epic, uh, the epic court decision, which allows all these apps to actually get direct payment and not pay the Apple 30% tithe on, on these app payments. So that actually threatens services revenue. Anyway, lots of fundamental risks, um, coming from the outside world in the near term, again, to their fundamental earnings per share, a risk in addition to just tariffs. And the important problem here that isn't as urgent, but it is really important is competition. So what's happening is generative AI is opening up the possibility of replacing the smartphone with, if you think meta and Google are right, glasses, like these Ray-Ban glasses that Meta's already sold a million units of. Or, more importantly, um, Jony Ive, who used to was actually the designer behind every major Apple product on the market today, he was at Apple for 27 years, has recently, his company's been bought by Sam Altman's OpenAI, and they're talking about a new form factor that isn't a smartphone and it isn't glasses, but it's going to compete and replace, I mean, I think over the long term replace the iPhone because Jony Ive, who invented the iPhone as a design fact, uh, hardware, said he doesn't like screens. He wants to move consumers away from screens, which would be lovely if you could have a conversation with a 15-year-old where they weren't looking at their screens. So I'm completely supportive, but all of this is a competitive is a competitive threat to the largest iPhone maker, you know, the largest smartphone maker in the world. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Apple's growing list of problems clouds AI reboot
It says something about Apple's current status that its trailing position in artificial intelligence isn't the company's biggest problem. It might seem to be next week, though. Investors are glum ahead of Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference that kicks off Monday. The stock has slid 20% since the first of the year, which is the worst run the shares have experienced ahead of the company's WWDC event since at least 2010. Apple's big tech peers now use their own annual developer events almost exclusively to tout their progress in AI. But Apple's conference this year is expected to mainly demonstrate how far behind the company is in what is considered a once-in-a-generation technological shift. The Apple Intelligence service introduced at last year's conference is still a work in progress, and the Siri digital assistant is still awaiting a promised AI makeover. That won't be coming next week, at least based on a rare admission Apple made three months ago that its planned Siri upgrade was taking longer than expected. 'Apple will be much more cautious about overpromising and will refrain from showing features that aren't yet ready for prime time," Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson predicted in a report Thursday. But AI is only one of the significant problems Apple is facing now. Tariffs threaten the profit margins of the company's hardware business. And the president of the U.S. is openly pressuring Apple to effectively undo its two-decade-old business model of exclusively producing its devices overseas. Then there is services, which drive an outsize portion of Apple's bottom line. Legal challenges hang over the fees the company earns from app developers, as well as the payments it receives from Google to make the search engine the default option on Apple's devices. Those fees and payments together comprise a substantial part of Apple's services arm that generates annual gross profit margins of 74%—twice the margins the company's device business commands. 'We caution that Apple has material risks to its revenue growth, margins, and valuation multiple," Needham analyst Laura Martin wrote in a report on Wednesday, where she downgraded the stock to a 'hold" rating. Against the risk of tariffs, App Store fee reductions and the loss of Google payments, Apple's slow start in AI seems almost a minor worry. The company hasn't been marketing Apple Intelligence as a premium service that would cost users extra—a notable contrast to the approach of Microsoft and Alphabet's Google, which are charging money for most of the generative AI tools sold to their customers. But Apple needs to give customers more reasons to buy its devices, and upgrade them more frequently. Its flagship iPhone business has been in a rut, with revenue growth relatively flat over the past two years and expected to be flat again for the current fiscal year ending in September. The lack of new AI offerings is expected to weigh on the next cycle as well, with Wall Street expecting iPhone revenue growth of only 3% in fiscal 2026, according to FactSet estimates. 'We believe that, for this stock to work, it must have the catalyst of an iPhone replacement cycle, which we do not foresee in the next 12 months," Needham's Martin wrote in her report. Apple has a lot of very loyal customers—more than 2.35 billion active devices make up its installed base—who won't necessarily bail over a single piece of missing software. But the company that disrupted the smartphone market could be disrupted itself if generative AI creates a new class of devices that obviate the need for a touch screen slab in everyone's pocket. OpenAI just nabbed Jony Ive, the famed Apple designer who crafted the original versions of most of Apple's current product line, as part of an ambition to eventually ship 100 million 'AI companions." The first devices are expected to come out next year. The famously secretive Apple could very well spring some of its own surprises by then. But it will have to do so while juggling its global supply chain and deftly navigating the legal challenges to its App Store fees and Google payments. Apple isn't even officially a party to the Google case, which might limit its options to shape the outcome. Apple's slow start in AI is a problem, but compared to its other challenges, at least it is more under its control.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Apple's two biggest problem areas ahead of its WWDC 2025
Ahead of Apple's (AAPL) 2025 Worldwide Developers Conference kicking off this Monday, June 9, Needham analysts downgraded the iPhone maker from a Buy rating to Hold while removing its price target on the tech stock. Needham & Company senior media and internet analyst Laura Martin — the analyst behind the call — examines several of Apple's biggest problems as it faces pressures in China's consumer market and the team-up between OpenAI and former Apple designer Jony Ive. Here's a look at what to expect from the 2025 WWDC event. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Apple (AAPL) Downgraded to 'Hold' by Needham on Weak iPhone Outlook
Apple (AAPL, Financials) was downgraded by Needham to hold from buy on Wednesday, with the firm withdrawing its $225 price target. Analyst Laura Martin cited weak expectations for the iPhone upgrade cycle, an expensive valuation versus peers, and rising competitive risks. Martin said the iPhone maker needs a strong upgrade cycle to justify further stock gains, but demand looks soft heading into the iPhone 17 launch this fall. Shares are down about 18% year-to-date, making Apple one of the worst-performing Magnificent Seven stocks alongside Tesla (TSLA, Financials). Separately, Counterpoint Research slashed its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9%, down from 4.2%, due to tariff pressures and soft demand. North American shipments are projected to decline 3%, the worst of any region. Apple and Samsung are seen as especially vulnerable. Apple is also lagging its peers in monetizing artificial intelligence, Needham said. While Alphabet (GOOGL, Financials) and Amazon (AMZN, Financials) generate AI revenue via cloud platforms, Apple lacks a similar business, making AI investments a cost center rather than a growth driver. The downgrade comes ahead of Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference next week, where the company is expected to unveil new iOS features and possibly announce a generative AI partnership with Google. Apple shares were little changed near $203 on Wednesday. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
