Latest news with #LisaCook
Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Fed official calls July jobs report 'concerning' as economy hits potential turning point
The weaker-than-expected July jobs report and large downward revisions to the prior two months' job gains could signal that the U.S. economy is at a turning point, as Federal Reserve policymakers continue to monitor economic conditions and weigh interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Lisa Cook spoke on a panel with Boston Fed President Susan Collins at the Boston Fed. Cook said that the report was "concerning" as it could signal the U.S. economy is reaching an inflection point. "We need to be cautious and humble because we should be monitoring all kinds of indicators. Let's say, for example, we just received this jobs report and this is concerning, you know, 35,000 jobs per month over the last three months ending in July. And there were major revisions, two major revisions to May and June," Cook explained. "These revisions are somewhat typical of turning points, which again, speak to uncertainty." Leading Economist Issues Stark Recession Warning For Struggling Us Economy Collins and Cook also discussed the impact of uncertainty on the economy as business leaders look to make decisions on things like hiring, investment and pricing their products when their costs are shifting due to higher tariffs that the Trump administration has implemented. Cook said she's been hearing from business leaders about how the "uncertainty tax" is impacting their decisionmaking about things like investment, hiring and pricing. Read On The Fox Business App "The main thing that I've been hearing, and I've been trying to get more and more precise estimates, is about the uncertainty tax," Cook said. "So how much time CEOs and CFOs are spending – of all kinds of organizations, financial institutions, small and large businesses, nonprofits – how much time they're spending per week managing all of this. And to a person, the estimate is between 20 and 45 percent." Markets Now Betting Fed Will Cut Rates In September After Disappointing Jobs Report Cook noted that firms are considering pricing decisions in different ways, saying that "some of them are preemptively raising prices, and some of them are waiting to see what kind of deal they can get from their suppliers." "There's just uncertainty across the board, but I think it's really interesting that no matter what the sector, no matter what kind of business they're in, they're talking about this uncertainty tax," she added. Collins added that she has also heard from business leaders about the uncertainty tax and that businesses have been in a holding pattern as they wait to see how consumer prices evolve in response to tariff levels that have shifted as the Trump administration lowers or raises the levies in response to its negotiations with trading partners. Inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy are down from the 40-year high reached in 2022 and have moved closer to the Fed's 2% longer-run target, though inflation remains above that level and continues to strain Americans' budgets. Fed's Favored Inflation Gauge Shows Consumer Prices Rose Again In June "I do also hear about uncertainty leading to a wait and see in terms of how to think about pricing decisions, especially coming out of a period of high inflation. Of course, it's come way down, it's much closer to the target. But that means price levels are very elevated, and that means consumer sensitivity to pricing and price changes is elevated," Collins said. "Most of the literature that I'm aware of does focus on real activity, but the idea of a direct uncertainty effect on pricing decisions… frankly wasn't something I had thought about as much, but it's certainly something that I've been hearing specifically about," Collins article source: Fed official calls July jobs report 'concerning' as economy hits potential turning point Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Inicia sesión para acceder a tu portafolio Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Se produjo un error al recuperar la información Se produjo un error al recuperar la información
Bloomberg
4 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Senator Warren Urges Fed's Cook to Turn on Key Big-Bank Capital Buffer
US Senator Elizabeth Warren urged Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook in a letter to activate what's known as the countercyclical capital buffer, a tool that Congress authorized the Fed to use as a way to demand banks build up additional cushions of capital during periods of excessive growth. Warren wrote to Cook, who serves as chair of the Fed's Committee on Financial Stability and often votes in line with Democrats, to warn about how she said President Donald Trump's ' chaotic tariff policies ' might cripple the US banking system and larger economy.
Business Recorder
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, NZ dollars hit one-week highs amid US dollar malaise
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars hit one-week highs on Thursday as their U.S. counterpart felt the heavy weight of rate cut bets, growth worries and tariff jitters, although stiff chart resistance loomed. The two also found some support from better risk appetite led by global stocks and from still strong Chinese trade data that showed exports beat forecasts in July as manufacturers made the most of a fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington. The Aussie edged up 0.2% at $0.6516, the highest in a week, having gained 0.5% overnight. It is well off a six-week low of $0.6419 but only back to the middle of the recent trading range between 64 cents and 66 cents. The kiwi dollar rose 0.3% to a one-week top of $0.5944, after rising 0.4% overnight. Major resistance lies at $0.6059 and $0.6120. Overnight, the dollar took another tumble from rising prospects of sooner and deeper Fed rate cuts. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said July jobs data was 'concerning' and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank may need to respond to a slowing economy. Investors are closely watching Trump's pick to fill a coming vacancy on the Fed's Board of Governors and candidates for the next chair of the central bank for the impact on monetary policy. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 94% probability of a 25 basis point cut from the Fed in September, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. In total, traders see 60.5 basis points in cuts this year. Analysts at the National Australia Bank expect the Australian dollar to appreciate to 70 cents, but after a 2.4% fall in July, they revised their forecasts lower to 66 cents by September and 68 cents by December. 'Still pivotal to our weaker USD view is that the economy is in the midst of a cyclical downturn, with US growth converging towards the rate experienced in other major developing countries, extinguishing the U.S. economy's 'exceptionalism'.' Also aiding the Aussie a little is local data that showed Australia's surplus on goods trade rebounded sharply in June as exports of gold and coal shot higher. The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet next week and is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter-point to 3.6% on Tuesday, after skipping a chance to move last month in rare dissent. 'We also expect the 'vote split' to disappear at this meeting, with a 9-0 vote for a 25bp cut,' said Phil Odonaghoe, an economist at Deutsche Bank.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Dollar Falls on Dovish Fed Comments
The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday fell by -0.61% to a 1-week low. Hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Holzmann on Wednesday boosted EUR/USD to a 1-week high, undercutting the dollar, as he stated there is no need for the ECB to cut interest rates further. The dollar was also under pressure from increased expectations for a Fed rate cut after the recent weaker-than-expected US payroll and PMI reports. Losses in the dollar accelerated Wednesday on dovish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who signaled their support for interest rate cuts. More News from Barchart Dollar Little Changed on Weak US Service Sector News Dollar Recovers with Bond Yields Dollar Weakens on Dovish Fed Comments Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! Also, questions about the Fed's credibility continue to weigh on the dollar after Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned last Friday, which could prompt President Trump to nominate a new governor who is more dovish and could undermine Fed Chair Powell's influence. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, 'The economy is slowing and in the near term it may become appropriate to start adjusting the federal funds rate lower.' Fed Governor Lisa Cook said last Friday's US July jobs report is 'concerning' and that 'the revisions are somewhat typical of turning points' in the US economy. In recent tariff news, President Trump announced today that he will double tariffs on US imports from India to 50% from the current 25% tariff, due to India's purchases of Russian oil. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump said that US tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports would be announced 'within the next week or so.' Last Thursday, President Trump raised tariffs on some Canadian goods to 35% from 25% and announced a 10% global minimum, along with tariffs of 15% or higher for countries with trade surpluses with the US, effective after midnight on August 7. According to Bloomberg Economics, the average US tariff will rise to 15.2% if rates are implemented as announced, up from 13.3% earlier, and significantly higher than the 2.3% in 2024 before the tariffs were announced. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 95% at the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and 68% at the following meeting on October 28-29. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) Wednesday rose by +0.75% to a 1-week high. The euro rallied Wednesday on hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Holzmann, who said he sees no reason for the ECB to cut interest rates again. Gains in the euro accelerated Wednesday after the dollar tumbled on dovish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who signaled their support for interest rate cuts. On the bearish side for the euro was Wednesday's Eurozone economic news that showed German June factory orders unexpectedly posted their biggest decline in 5 months. Also, the euro is struggling due to concerns that President Trump's tariff policies will curb economic growth in the Eurozone. Eurozone June retail sales rose +0.3% m/m, right on expectations. German June factory orders unexpectedly fell -1.0% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +1.1% m/m increase and the biggest decline in 5 months. ECB Governing Council member Holzmann said, 'In my view, there is no longer any reason for the ECB to lower interest rates further and we should wait and see what economic developments arise, particularly outside Europe, and how we respond to them.' Swaps are pricing in a 12% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) Wednesday fell by -0.37%. The yen strengthened against the dollar Wednesday after Japan's nominal wages in June accelerated from May, a hawkish factor for BOJ policy. Higher T-note yields on Wednesday limited gains in the yen. Also, the yen has negative carryover from Tuesday when the minutes of the June 16-17 BOJ meeting showed policymakers were concerned about ending its QE program too quickly. Japan's June labor cash earnings rose +2.5% y/y from +1.4% y/y in May, although weaker than expectations of +3.1% y/y. December gold (GCZ25) on Wednesday closed down -1.30 (-0.04%), and September silver (SIU25) closed up +0.079 (+0.21%). Precious metals settled mixed on Wednesday. The decline in the dollar index to a 1-week low on Wednesday was bullish for metals. Also, dovish Fed comments on Wednesday from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Cook were bullish for precious metals as they signaled their support for interest rate cuts. Demand for precious metals as a store of value has increased after recent weaker-than-expected US economic news may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates as soon as next month. The chance of a Fed interest rate cut at the September FOMC meeting has risen to 95% on Wednesday from 40% last Friday. Gains in precious metals prices were limited, and gold turned lower Wednesday on hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Holzmann, who said there is no longer any reason for the ECB to lower interest rates further. Also, strength in stocks and higher T-note yields on Wednesday weighed on precious metals. Precious metals still have safe-haven support on concerns that President Trump's tariff policies will weigh on global economic growth prospects. Finally, precious metals continue to receive safe-haven support from geopolitical risks, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Fed's Cook Sees Economic 'Turning Point' After Jobs Data
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook calls the July employment report "concerning," and says it could signal an inflection point for the US economy. She speaks during a moderated discussion organized by the Boston Fed. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
