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The Independent
a day ago
- Politics
- The Independent
Survey reveals the exact demographics behind Reform's growing support
Recent voting intention polling from YouGov (May 27) shows Reform UK in first place, 8% ahead of Labour and 10% ahead of the Conservatives, who are now in third place. The rising popularity of Nigel Farage 's party is an unprecedented threat to the major parties. This was driven home in recent local elections in England, where Reform won 677 seats and took control of 10 local authorities. But where does this support come from? The survey compares respondent voting intention to their votes in the 2024 general election. If we look at Conservative voters, 27% of them have switched to Reform in their voting intentions, while 66% remain loyal. Alarmingly for Labour, only 60% of their 2024 voters have remained loyal, and 15% intend to vote for Reform, while 12% switched to the Liberal Democrats and 9% to the Greens. Labour has been squeezed from both sides of the political spectrum, but the loss to the left is significantly larger than the loss to the right. In contrast, 73% of Liberal Democrat voters have remained loyal to the party, with only 7% switching to Reform and 8% going to Labour. Not surprisingly, 91% of Reform voters have remained loyal, with 5% going to the Conservatives and 3% going to the Greens. None of the Reform voters have switched to Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Reform's rise has led the Labour government to take more hardline stances on key issues, particularly immigration and asylum – which around half of YouGov respondents say is the most important issue facing the country. And with small boat crossings on the rise again, it remains to be seen whether the government's recent proposals to reduce net migration will be enough to hold onto wavering supporters. Social backgrounds and party support If we probe a bit further into the social characteristics of voters, only 8% of 18 to 24-year-olds support Reform, compared with 35% of 50 to 64-year-olds and 33% of the over-65s. Some 34% of the younger group support Labour, 12% the Conservatives, 15% the Liberal Democrats and 25% the Greens. As far as the 50 to 64-year-olds are concerned, 19% support Labour, 16% the Conservatives, 16% the Liberal Democrats and 9% the Greens. There is currently a significant age divide when it comes to party support. With respect to class (or 'social grade' as it is described in contemporary surveys), 23% of the middle-class support Reform compared with 38% of the working class. The latter were the bedrock of Labour support a couple of generations ago, but now only 19% support Labour, with 17% supporting the Conservatives and 12% the Liberal Democrats. Current support for the parties among middle-class voters, apart from Reform, is 22% for Labour, 21% for the Conservatives and 17% for the Liberal Democrats. Again, the middle class used to be the key supporters of the Conservative party, but at the moment the party is running third behind its rivals in this group. Finally, the relationship between gender and support for the parties is also interesting. Some 35% of male respondents support Reform compared with only 24% of female respondents. In contrast, 21% of both men and women support Labour. The figures for the Conservatives are 16% of men and 22% of women, and Liberal Democrat support is 14% from men and 16% from women. There is also notable support for Reform among those who voted Leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum in the YouGov survey. Altogether 53% of Leave voters in the EU Referendum opted for Reform and 24% supported the Conservatives, with 8% supporting Labour, 8% the Liberal Democrats and 4% the Greens. In the case of Remain voters, 10% chose Reform, 17% went for the Conservatives, 30% for Labour, 23% for the Liberal Democrats and 14% for the Greens. Not surprisingly, Reform takes the largest share of Brexit voters, but just over half of them – indicating that a lot of change has occurred in support since the 2016 referendum and Farage's role in the Leave campaign. The fact that 10% of Remain voters switched to Reform and 20% of Leave voters have switched to Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the Greens shows that it is not just a simple case of support for Brexit leading to support for Reform. Voting and volatility Before Nigel Farage starts picking out curtains for Number 10, it is worth looking at another volatile moment in British political history - the effects of the split in the Labour party in 1981, when the Social Democratic Party was formed by the 'gang of four' breakaway Labour politicians, Shirley Williams, Roy Jenkins, David Owen and Bill Rodgers. The newly formed party agreed to an electoral pact with the Liberals, which continued until the 1983 election. A Gallup poll published in December 1981 shows a massive lead for the SDP-Liberal Alliance. And yet, Margaret Thatcher's Conservatives won that election. Labour came second by a small margin ahead of the SDP-Liberal Alliance and remained the main opposition party. The point of this example is that a massive lead in the polls for the SDP-Liberal Alliance shortly after it was established did not provide a breakthrough in the general election two years later. Reform may be in the lead now, but this does not mean that it will win the general election of 2028-29. That said, there is a real risk for Labour continuing to lose support to both the left and the right – something which it needs to rapidly repair. Rachel Reeves 's 'iron chancellor' strategy, in which the government announces fiscal rules which it claims to stand by at all costs, is no longer credible. As the Institute of Government points out, every single fiscal rule adopted since 2008 has subsequently been abandoned. A strategy of continuing austerity by making significant cuts in the welfare budget to calm financial markets is likely to fail, both in the economy and with voters. Paul Whiteley is a Professor in the Department of Government at the University of Essex.
Daily Mail
3 days ago
- Business
- Daily Mail
Labour narrows the gap on Reform after PM's full-frontal attack on Nigel Farage - but insurgents still hold six-point poll lead
Labour has narrowed the gap on Reform after Keir Starmer 's extraordinary full-frontal attack. The latest YouGov poll shows the advantage for Nigel Farage 's party trimmed by two points compared to last week. But despite Reform losing a point and Labour gaining one, the lead still stands at six points. Sir Keir summoned a press conference during the Parliamentary recess to condemn Mr Farage's economic plans. He warned voters they cannot trust Reform with their 'future, mortgages or jobs', deriding proposals for huge tax cuts and higher spending. The intervention confirmed a major shift in Labour's tactics, from largely ignoring Reform to targeting their rivals head-on, Mr Farage has sought to woo working class Labour voters by backing an end to the two-child benefit cap and full restoration of winter fuel payments. But he simultaneously insists he can slash taxes, with economists suggesting a commitment to hike the personal allowance alone would cost £60billion to £80billion. Reform argues that would be possible by cutting £350billion-£400billion of spending on quangos, Net Zero and DEI policies - although Mr Farage himself acknowledged the figures could be 'slightly optimistic'. The YouGov research put Reform on 28 per cent, with Labour on 22 per cent, and the Conservatives barely ahead of the Lib Dems on 18 per cent. Panic has grown in Labour circles following the dramatic local election results, when Reform seized 10 councils, two mayoralties and the Parliamentary seat of Runcorn in a by-election. Sir Keir has signalled he will bow to a revolt by MPs over scrapping the winter fuel allowance, as well as easing the two-child benefit cap. But he is under pressure to go further and water down curbs to disability benefits, despite the government desperately struggling to balance the books.
Al Jazeera
23-05-2025
- Politics
- Al Jazeera
Israel attacks Lebanon with 'most violent' strikes since ceasefire
NewsFeed Israel attacks Lebanon with 'most violent' strikes since ceasefire Israel has carried out multiple bombings across southern Lebanon, including blowing up a multi-story apartment building. The attacked happened just hours before local elections in the country's south.
LBCI
18-05-2025
- Politics
- LBCI
Israeli warplanes fly at low altitude over Bekaa Valley amid municipal vote
Israeli military aircraft conducted low-altitude flights over Lebanon's Bekaa Valley on Sunday, according to the state-run National News Agency, as the country holds local elections in the governorates of Beirut, Bekaa, and Baalbek-Hermel.
Daily Mail
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Daily Mail
Had enough already, Keir? Starmer dodges on whether he will lead Labour into the next election as unrest grows over Reform threat, immigration and benefits cuts
Keir Starmer dodged committing to lead Labour into the next election today amid mounting unrest on his benches. The PM risked setting hares running by dodging questions over his intentions for the prospective 2029 contest. Asked by GB News during a trip to Albania whether he would definitely seek another term in office, Sir Keir said: 'You're getting way ahead of me.' He added: 'I'm absolutely clear that my task is to rebuild our country.' Near-panic has been sparked in Labour ranks by Reform's astonishing surge in local elections on May 1. Nigel Farage 's party picked up 10 councils and two mayoralties, as well as the previously safe Runcorn & Helsby constituency in a by-election. Sir Keir has been under huge pressure to change course, but MPs are also up in arms about his efforts to curb immigration and cut the spiralling benefits bill. The PM is bracing for a bruising showdown with his backbenchers on Monday evening, when he addresses the Parliamentary party. Ed Miliband would lose his seat if the dramatic local election results were repeated in a Westminster contest, according to a new analysis. Projections by Electoral Calculus suggest the Net Zero Secretary faces being among a blizzard of victims claimed by Reform. It found Reform would have held on to its two existing seats, and picked up an extra 79. Of those gains, 59 would have come from Labour, including Doncaster North, which has been held by Mr Miliband for two decades. Reform would have won an overwhelming 46 per cent of the vote to Mr Miliband's 29 per cent. The newcomers would also have scooped 19 seats from the Tories and one from the Lib Dems. Shadow chancellor Mel Stride is among the projected casualties, giving up his Devon constituency to the Lib Dems. Shadow environment secretary Victoria Atkins was seen as losing Louth and Horncastle to Reform by a huge 22-point margin. Labour would also have shipped four seats to the Greens , while the Lib Dems were poised to add four previous Conservative strongholds to their tally. Polls since the local elections have indicated Reform consolidating their advantage over the traditional main parties. And Sir Keir has been struggling to contain a brewing Labour civil war over immigration and benefits. Backbenchers have broken cover condemning the PM's warning that Britain risks becoming an 'island of strangers' - forcing Downing Street to deny he was echoing Enoch Powell's 'Rivers of Blood' speech. And left-wingers have been threatening the 'mother of all rebellions' over planned cuts to benefits.
