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Japan Times
29-07-2025
- Business
- Japan Times
Taiwan's Lai calls off trip with U.S. transit as Trump seeks Xi summit
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has called off an overseas trip planned for next week after the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump failed to greenlight his stopover in the U.S. amid concerns it could derail trade talks with China. Taiwan's leader isn't planning any overseas travel in the near future, given the need for typhoon recovery work in southern Taiwan and tariff negotiations with the U.S., the Presidential Office in Taipei said in a statement late Monday. Lai had intended to stop in New York on Aug. 4 and then Dallas 10 days later as part of a trip to diplomatic allies Paraguay, Guatemala and Belize. Planning for that trip was thrown into flux late last week when Taiwanese officials couldn't get their U.S. counterparts to give the go-ahead, according to people familiar with the matter. The U.S. had mounting concerns Lai's visit could disrupt trade negotiations with China and a potential summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the people said. The hesitation over Lai's trip unnerved some officials in the U.S., as well as in Taipei, who fear Trump may concede too much to China as he seeks a meeting with Xi, according to the people. Trump's team has been reportedly reaching out to CEOs to join him on a possible trip to Beijing this year. While Lai's trip was never formally announced, officials in Paraguay and Guatemala had been expecting him to arrive next month, but no longer do so, according to people familiar with the preparations for his visit. Trump officials denied Lai permission to transit through New York after China raised objections with Washington about the visit, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the decision. It was unclear whether he was also blocked from stopping over in Dallas, the newspaper added. The rebuke will fan concerns that Washington's position on the self-ruled democracy, which Beijing considers a part of its territory, is becoming a trade war bargaining chip. In an abrupt policy reversal, Trump already put on the negotiating table some tech curbs imposed on China over national security concerns. Lai poses for photos with Taiwanese National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu (second from left), Taiwanese Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo (fourth from left), and army officers in front of a U.S.-made M1A2T Abrams tank during a live-fire shooting session for Taiwan's first batch of the advanced tank on July 10. | AFP-JIJI "Trump's decision to deny permission for President Lai to visit New York sends a dangerous signal: that the United States can be bullied by Beijing into silence on Taiwan,' said former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose 2022 visit to Taipei sparked uproar. "This is a victory for Xi,' she wrote on social media platform X. "Let us hope it is not indicative of a dangerous change in U.S. policy.' The White House didn't reply to a request for comment. A State Department official said transits by high-level Taiwanese officials, including presidents, were fully consistent with longstanding U.S. policy and practice, which hasn't changed. The U.S. could yet suggest an alternative time frame and layover locations. Last year, the Taiwanese president pushed back a planned transit through Hawaii and Guam by several months following a request from the administration of then-President Joe Biden to wait until after the U.S. election, according to a person familiar with the matter. Lai is planning to go ahead with his trip later this year, according to one person familiar with the plans. The Taiwanese president's planned visit came at a delicate diplomatic moment. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Monday met in Stockholm for talks aimed at advancing a trade deal with ramifications for global markets. An extension of a tariff truce reached between both sides is expected and would help pave the way for a Trump-Xi meeting. China, which has branded Lai a "separatist' and "parasite,' views Taiwan as the most sensitive issue in relations with other countries. It has increasingly opposed U.S. interactions with Taiwanese leaders, often by staging large-scale military exercises surrounding the island, following Pelosi's trip to Taipei. Linking Taiwan to trade with China "sends a dangerous message to Beijing,' said Laura Rosenberger, a former U.S. diplomat who also chaired the American Institute in Taiwan until this year. "At a time when Beijing is engaging in increasingly coercive behavior toward Taipei, the U.S. needs to be sending a clear message of commitment to longstanding precedents, not allowing Beijing to once again move the goalposts,' she added. Supporters of Taiwan's main opposition party, Kuomintang, participate in a rally against a recall election in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei on Friday. | AFP-JIJI Lai, who won last year's presidential election with the lowest winning percentage since 2000, now risks looking weak at home and abroad. Last weekend, a failed attempt to unseat lawmakers handed the opposition more ammunition for its agenda, which includes forging closer ties with Beijing. Adding to the uncertainty, Taiwan's trade officials are currently in Washington for talks aimed at clinching a deal to avert a threatened 32% tariff. All of Taiwan's sitting presidents since the 1990s have traveled to the U.S. on stopovers en route to other destinations. While most visits passed without triggering heightened tensions, a trip in 1995 by then-leader Lee Teng-hui to speak at Cornell University sparked what's referred to as the Third Strait Crisis, with China firing missiles into waters near the main island of Taiwan. Stopover requests, on occasion, have been used as a way for U.S. leaders to signal displeasure with Taiwan's policy. The most prominent example of that came in 2006, when then-U.S. President George W. Bush scuttled then-Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's request to transit to Paraguay via either New York or San Francisco. That snub was taken as a sign his unofficial relationship with Washington had suffered a serious blow, after Chen upset the Bush administration with a series of pro-independence policies that risked provoking China. Lai's New York and Dallas stops would have been his first to continental U.S. soil since he became president last year and Trump took power in January. His transits in Hawaii and Guam last December were followed by what Taipei described as China's largest naval deployment in years along the first island chain, which also includes Japan and the Philippines.
AllAfrica
23-07-2025
- Politics
- AllAfrica
Is Taiwan doing enough to repel a Chinese invasion?
The Han Kuang 2025 military exercises marked a major shift in how Taiwan prepares for war. For the first time, the annual national exercise combined ten days of live-fire combat training with a full-society readiness push. Civilians across all 22 counties and cities practiced air raid response, medical supply distribution, food rationing and emergency communications. On the military side, Taiwan deployed new US-supplied weapons including M1A2T Abrams tanks, HIMARS rocket artillery and upgraded coastal defense missiles. Drones, cyberattacks and joint command systems were tested more seriously than in previous years. This time, the preparation also moved into real-world spaces—Taipei Metro stations, morning markets and major intersections—bringing the public closer to the actual scenarios Taiwan could face. The simulation was no longer abstract; it was physical, visible and local. The political message was clear: Taiwan is preparing as if conflict could be real, and soon. Still, Han Kuang only covers the end game—what happens if China launches a full attack? It leaves a major gap at the beginning of the conflict. What happens when the threat is not missiles, but cyberattacks, disinformation, cable sabotage, or energy disruption? Taiwan is practicing for total war, but the grey zone is already here. This article examines what that preparation means. Is Taiwan able to hold the line alone before allies arrive? Is the public truly ready? What is the United States signaling through its support—and is it enough? Are Taiwan's regional partners building a defense that matches the threat? And finally, what must be done now, while there is still time to act? Taiwanese society has not always viewed Han Kuang with urgency. In the 1990s and early 2000s, it was widely seen as symbolic—just a routine show of weapons, disconnected from any real threat. During calmer periods such as the Ma Ying-jeou presidency, the event was often criticized as out of sync with public sentiment, more about appearances than substance. The 2025 iteration felt different. Facing near-daily Chinese military pressure, the exercise received stronger support from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). President Lai Ching-te declared July as 'National Unity Month,' framing public participation as a democratic responsibility. DPP officials used the moment to send a message to both Beijing and Washington: Taiwan is not just waiting—it is actively preparing. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT), however, raised concerns. While not opposing the exercise outright, KMT lawmakers argued it lacked real coordination with allies and risked giving the public false confidence. Their position reflected a broader divide—between those promoting political resolve and those questioning its depth. Public opinion reflects this tension. About 67.8% of respondents say they are willing to fight for Taiwan, and 51% support increasing the defense budget—the first time that figure has passed 50%. Yet only 14% express strong confidence in the military's ability to fight effectively. The desire to be ready is growing, but belief in actual readiness remains limited. That gap deepened after several safety incidents during the exercise. A US-made M1A2 tank collided with a civilian vehicle. A missile transport vehicle blocked traffic while turning. An armored car flipped over in Taitung, injuring soldiers. No lives were lost, but the string of mishaps raised an uncomfortable question: if basic coordination breaks down in practice runs, how would it hold under attack? Critics pointed to weaknesses in logistics, communication, and execution—saying that appearances had improved, but fundamentals remained shaky. Han Kuang 2025 expanded civilian participation, introduced updated systems and signaled stronger political will. But confidence lags behind ambition. Planning still focuses on conventional military engagements, even as the more likely threats—cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage—remain underdeveloped. The island has shown it is willing to prepare. Whether that preparation is enough remains in question. Taiwan's military depends on the United States. Over 90% of its key weapons come from America, and its strategy is built on the idea that the US will show up if war breaks out. In 2025, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth named Taiwan the Pentagon's 'animating scenario,' putting it at the center of US global planning. A classified directive now tells the US military to focus more forces like submarines, bombers, drones and special ops to deter a Chinese cross-strait attack. But there's a big gap between what's said and what's done. Hegseth told allies at Shangri-La that the US would 'fight and win' if deterrence failed. But there's still no joint command, no large training together, and no clear plan to fight as one team. Admiral Mark Montgomery said 500 US troops are now in Taiwan—10 times more than in 2021—but they're just rotating trainers and are not believed to be a combat force. He even said it should double to 1,000. That's a signal, but not enough to change outcomes. Yes, the US Congress has backed Taiwan with real money. In FY2025, it approved $300 million in support, then $500 million for FY2026. It also passed an $8.1 billion Indo-Pacific bill, with $2 billion set aside just for Taiwan. Lawmakers keep voting in favor—most bills pass with over 300 House votes. But most of these efforts are stuck in slow delivery. Training programs and joint planning still haven't happened. Equipment orders are delayed. Taiwan buys, but it doesn't receive. This relationship is stuck. It runs on delays, speeches, and symbolic help. That might build headlines—but it doesn't build a war plan. The US says it stands with Taiwan, but the real structure to fight together still doesn't exist. Meanwhile, the enemy is not waiting. China runs exercises all the time. It prepares for war more often—and more seriously—than Taiwan or its partners. Right now, we are not keeping pace. Talisman Sabre 2025 was the largest military exercise in the Indo-Pacific this year. It involved 35,000 troops from 19 countries and 3 observers, training across land, sea, air, cyber, and space domains. The scenario was clear: a high-end conflict in East Asia, modeled on a potential Taiwan contingency. The US deployed its Typhon missile system to the region for the first time, while Australia launched HIMARS rockets in simulated counterstrikes. But Taiwan was not invited. The country most likely to be attacked and the one the whole exercise quietly centers on was excluded. While Japan and the Philippines trained as frontline participants and countries like the UK, France, Germany, India, and Singapore joined in supporting roles, Taiwan was left outside the coordination table. This disconnect carries real risk. A coalition may look strong on paper, but without practical planning that includes Taiwan, coordination in a crisis could fail. Military forces from across the Indo-Pacific are building habits and protocols together—while Taiwan is still preparing alone. Talisman Sabre was meant to signal readiness to Beijing. But it should also raise concern in Taipei. Taiwan's security is central to regional planning, yet it remains politically isolated from the exercises that matter most. That silence is not strategy. It is a vulnerability. Despite all the improvements, Taiwan is still getting ready on its own. There is no joint plan with allies for handling a breakdown in civil order. No shared response for economic attacks. No coordination for protecting digital systems. That silence feels familiar. It is what Ukraine faced when the war began and partners waited to see what Washington would do. This cannot happen again. The US will play a key role, but it cannot be the only one. Regional defense must take the lead, with US support as a partner, not a trigger. Allies keep preparing for a final large-scale war but are still ignoring the early warning signs that are already here. China is testing Taiwan daily through pressure, interference and slow-moving threats. Yet Indo-Pacific countries have not made clear commitments. Taiwan still does not know who will help, how or when. Taiwan's numbers show how urgent this is. The 2025 defense budget was about $20.25. That is just eight% of China's official defense spending and only 5% if we count estimates of China's full military budget at $390 billion. Even if Taiwan reaches its goal of spending 3% of its GDP in 2026, the number will still be under $25 billion—less than what China adds in a single year. Bigger budgets alone will not fix the problem. What matters more is faster coordination and stronger partnerships. Taiwan's partners are not moving fast enough. Han Kuang 2025 brought in 22,000 reservists and expanded civil defense. But it is still a national-level exercise trying to prepare for a regional war. There is no shared command, no joint cyber protection and no regional backup plan if Taiwan's economy or power systems are hit. China's Strait Thunder 2025A training had none of these gaps. It included blockades, power grid attacks, and missile strikes—clear signals of how it would fight. While China prepares for real conflict, Taiwan's partners are still stuck in speeches and rehearsals. Taiwan should raise its defense spending target to 3.4% of GDP. That extra 4.7 billion dollars should go directly to programs that help work with allies and respond to gray-zone threats. Han Kuang should not stay a solo effort. It should open the door to Japan, Australia, and South Korea so that they can plan and train together. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative should shift more funding to build real shared capabilities, not just US-led efforts. And the region needs a new group—modeled after the Ukraine Defense Contact Group—that includes Taiwan and meets regularly to share plans, intelligence, and logistics. Symbolic support is not enough. If a real strike comes, what matters is what is already in place. 2027 is no longer a distant warning. It's a schedule. China is not posturing. It is practicing, testing and moving with purpose. Every military action, cyber intrusion, and blockade rehearsal is aimed at one place: Taiwan. And everyone is watching—Japan, Australia, Southeast Asia, Europe, the United States. But no one watches more closely than China itself. Taiwan is running out of time. Defense planning must move faster than political debate. Real preparation has to replace signals. Taiwan must act before asking others to act with it. That means stronger training, better planning and deeper cooperation. The world is watching, and so is the enemy. Yenting Lin is a Master's student in Public Policy at George Mason University. He holds a B.A. and B.S. from National Chung Cheng University in Taiwan. His research focuses on algorithmic hate speech, AI-driven misinformation, and their impact on national security and U.S.–Taiwan–China relations. His work has been featured in Small Wars Journal, American Intelligence Journal, and The Defence Horizon Journal. The views in this article are his own.
South China Morning Post
14-07-2025
- Politics
- South China Morning Post
Taiwan live-streams Han Kuang navy mine deployment as troops test metro tactics
Taiwan's navy on Monday live-streamed a minelaying drill to showcase its determination to block and delay a potential amphibious assault by the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The display was part of this year's annual Han Kuang military exercise aimed at strengthening combat readiness for a potential cross-strait conflict. The drill, held off the Zuoying naval base in the southern port city of Kaohsiung, coincided with a separate urban warfare exercise in which military police armed with Stinger missiles carried out an underground redeployment – using the Taipei metro system before dawn to transport troops, ammunition and supplies under simulated air strike threats. Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te (centre) oversees a naval minelaying drill on Monday. Photo: AFP Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te oversaw the navy drill, which, like last week's M1A2T Abrams tank live-fire training, was broadcast live for the first time to boost public confidence and showcase operational readiness Monday's demonstration featured fast minelaying boats and LCU-406 landing craft, operating under the protection of amphibious reconnaissance units. Troops deployed Taiwan-made Wan Xiang-series naval mines, including moored and bottom types designed to damage or deter both enemy surface ships and submarines. Play Describing the mines as 'oceanic roadblocks', a minelaying officer said they were cost-effective and hard to remove – a classic asymmetric weapon capable of disrupting PLA landing operations.
South China Morning Post
11-07-2025
- Entertainment
- South China Morning Post
Taiwan holds largest and longest-ever annual military exercise
Read more: Taiwan's military has live-streamed drills featuring live-fire operations using its new M1A2T Abrams tanks on the second day of its largest and longest-ever annual military exercise. The 41st edition of the Han Kuang exercise marks a significant departure from previous years, both in scale and duration. The 10-day, round-the-clock war game, which started on July 9, 2025, is designed to reflect a more realistic and protracted cross-strait conflict scenario.
The Independent
11-07-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Taiwan shows off first US Abrams tanks at largest war games
Taiwan's army on Thursday displayed the fire power of its first US-sourced M1A2T Abrams tanks – a traditional weapon that analysts say will need to be increasingly protected against drones in any future battle given lessons from the Ukraine war. Four Abrams tanks were shown manoeuvring across a mud-choked army training ground in Hsinchu county, firing at moving and static targets, on the second day of Taiwan's annual military exercises that are designed to test the island's resilience in a conflict with China. Wearing a combat helmet, president Lai Ching-te observed the firing, saying later that with "every increase in the military's combat power, the nation and its people gain an extra layer of security". "Whether in terms of strike capability or mobility, it was extremely powerful and undoubtedly the strongest tank on the battlefield," Mr Lai said. Senior military officials in Lai's government say they intend the comprehensive 10-day drills to show both China and the international community, including its key weapons supplier the U.S., that Taiwan is determined to defend itself against any China attack or invasion. China views the democratically governed island as its own and has intensified military pressure around Taiwan over the last five years. Mr Lai's comments also come ahead of a recall parliamentary election on 26 July that could see his ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) take back control of the legislature. The tanks are among the first batch of 38 Abrams main battle tanks delivered in December, with the rest of the 108 ordered by Taiwan due to be delivered later this year and next year. They marked Taiwan's first new tanks for 24 years. Analysts and regional military attaches say that while the Abrams remains a potent and highly adaptable weapon that would help Taiwan defend its cities and coasts in an invasion scenario, Taiwan will have to leverage its counter-drone technology to protect them. Both Russian and Ukrainian tanks, including US Abrams supplied to Kyiv, have reportedly proven vulnerable to drones and advanced anti-tank weapons. The tanks have yet to be fully commissioned and Wednesday's test firing was not a formal part of the Han Kuang drills, which are designed to replicate full battle conditions at sea, on land and in the skies, military officials said. Major General Chou Kuang-i, who heads the 584th armour brigade, said he expected the tanks to be in service later this year and deployed to combat zones according to "the current enemy threat and the tactical needs". Singapore-based military scholar Thomas Lim said he expected Taiwan would attempt in a war scenario to cover their "prized assets" with counter drone elements, or also deploy them from high positions for extra protection. "This isn't it isn't a problem unique to Abrams," said Mr Lim, of Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. President Lai said that he believed that through "realistic combat training", the M1A2T tank will "be able to integrate with drones and innovative tactics to more effectively fulfill the nation's strategic objectives". China's defence ministry on Tuesday said that Taiwan's drills were "nothing but a bluff". Alongside the military drills Taiwan authorities are holding civil defence rehearsals to test public reactions and build resilience. Local supermarket chain PX Mart held evacuation drills in three stores on Thursday, with shoppers escorted into basements as air raid sirens sounded. Deputy secretary-general of Taiwan's National Security Council, Lin Fei-fan, said the drill is a reminder that both government and civil society must be prepared for 'every kind of situation', citing the challenges and risk facing the island.
