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Hindustan Times
2 days ago
- Climate
- Hindustan Times
Severe heat grips NW and east India
Extreme heat gripped most parts of Northwest India and East India this week. On Tuesday, New Delhi recorded a maximum temperature of 43.8 degree C, Bhatinda 47.6 degree C, Ganganagar 47.4 degree C, Amritsar 44.8 degree C, Rohtak 46.1 degree C, and Lucknow 42.7 degree C. Over East India, Patna recorded 40.4 degree C while Kolkata recorded 36.3 with over 60% relative humidity (RH). On Monday, Delhi recorded a maximum temperature of 43.4 degree C with a relative humidity of 31% recorded at 2.30 PM. During the morning hours, RH was higher around 48%. On Tuesday Delhi's RH ranged from 39 to 24%. Heat wave conditions are likely to continue over Northwest India with severe heat wave conditions at isolated pockets over West Rajasthan till June 12. Heat wave conditions are very likely at many/some places over West Rajasthan during 10th-16th with severe heat wave conditions at isolated/some parts during June 10 to 13, IMD warned. Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are very likely at isolated/some parts are likely to prevail over East Rajasthan during June 10 to 13. Heat wave conditions are likely to prevail over East Uttar Pradesh on 10th and 11th, Punjab during 10th-13th, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh, and North Madhya Pradesh till June 12. Hot and humid weather is likely to prevail over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha on June 11. Warm night conditions are very likely in isolated pockets over Punjab, Haryana on June 11, West Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan till June 12. 'We are expecting heatwave conditions over the entire Northwest India. The impact of western disturbances (WD) is reducing now so heat is increasing. There is moisture over the region, left from previous WDs. This is causing uncomfortable heat. Monsoon has not reached NW India yet and hence heat is expected to rise,' said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD. 'Extreme humid heat is impacting eastern parts of the country where humidity is very high, over 70% in many places. Over NW India, we can expect humidity to reduce gradually,' added Mohapatra. 'Monsoon has not advanced over northwest India yet so temperatures are high because of solar insolation. There may be moisture incursion from Arabian Sea also,' said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences. HT reported on June 8 that the monsoon has not progressed for over a week now — its progress had stalled around June 29 because of the intrusion of dry air. The northern limit of monsoon continues to pass through Mumbai, Ahilyanagar, Adilabad, Bhawanipatna, Puri, and Sandhead Island. Monsoon is likely to be active over south peninsular India with heavy to very heavy rainfall and isolated extremely heavy falls over Karnataka during June 12 to 15 and over Konkan and Goa during June 13 to 15. Conditions are likely to be favourable for further advancement of Monsoon over some more parts of central and adjoining east India around June 14.
Scroll.in
29-05-2025
- Climate
- Scroll.in
Summer of weather disruptions: Early showers in May wreck crops, flood cities across India
In a year when India braced for blistering heat waves, May 2025 unleashed unprecedented rainfall activity, catching the country off guard with almost double, or 85.7% more, the rainfall than usual. In fact, central India has seen five times the usual rainfall this month (by May 27) and south India crossed the 2.5 times mark. The south-west monsoon arrived in Kerala on May 24, eight days earlier than usual and the earliest onset since 2009. Most parts of the country had been reeling under heat waves in March and April, and the expectation was that it would get worse in May. In the event, most parts of the country did not see any significant or prolonged heat waves. Instead, there were widespread thunderstorms, even hailstorms, which brought down maximum temperatures and spared India a scorching May. However, the unseasonal downpours led to massive crop losses in states such as Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Telangana, Gujarat and elsewhere. Now, as the country gears up for Kharif sowing, will May rains affect or decrease the spell of southwest monsoon in any way? Director General of the India Meteorological Department M Mohapatra answered in the negative and told IndiaSpend, 'Long range, seasonal rainfall is not dependent on May rainfall. There is no 1:1 relationship.' The department has forecast an ' above normal ' monsoon season this year. In a press conference on Tuesday, the India Meteorological Department forecast that monsoon will be particularly above normal over southern and central India, normal over northwest India, and below normal over northeast India. The month of June in fact has a forecast of 8% above normal rainfall (both forecasts with a margin of error of 4%). But there are bound to be variations. Even last year, while India's monsoon ended on a 6% surplus, there were large variations within regions and in between months. Within the monsoon months, there were variations in rainfall received, oscillating between deficit rain and surplus. Parts of Northeast India, Punjab, Bihar had seen deficient rainfall while Gujarat and Rajasthan saw surplus rainfall. Heatwave to thunderstorms At the beginning of May, the India Meteorological Department had forecast hotter days and nights, and above-normal heatwave days in northwest, central and east India this month. While it had also forecast rainfall over the country as a whole to be above normal (or 9% more) of the 'long period average', so far, India's monthly rainfall stands at 85.7% above normal instead (Data up to May 27). It started in the very first week of May when many parts of the country started seeing widespread rainfall. There was a prolonged wet spell with moderate to severe thunderstorms, squally or gusty winds over northwest, central and eastern India. Heavy rainfall was recorded in parts of east Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra & Kachchh on May 7 alone. That week had registered 35% more rainfall than was expected at this time of the year. The wet spell did not stop there. In the second week also, India saw 20% more rain than usual, so much so that there was no heat wave recorded. An important feature of this May's weather has been the presence of gusty winds, hailstorms, thunderstorms with lightning, and dust storms. On ground, the unexpected arrival of these weather events led to chaos and disruption. On May 20, Bengaluru city was lashed by heavy rain that killed three. Similar heavy rains were reported in Goa, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and many other regions of India. In Maharashtra, there has been widespread rainfall in Marathwada, Vidarbha and Konkan areas that are typically heatwave prone. On May 2, Delhi recorded its second highest 24-hour May rainfall since 1901, killing four. Delhi also reported dust storms on May 21, and on May 25, downpour led to a portion of the canopy to collapse at the airport. May 7 was recorded as Mumbai's second-wettest day in a decade, and the city is seeing its wettest May ever this year. Together, these extreme weather events have led to flight and train cancellations, traffic chaos, school closures, office disruptions and general disruption of normal life. These disruptions hit daily wage workers, small vendors, and local businesses the hardest, with many struggling to recover from days of halted operations and damaged infrastructure. The extent and severity of the weather activity is reflected in the data. Central India has recorded five times its usual May rainfall (402% above normal) and south India has recorded more than two-and-a-half times the typical amount (165% above normal). Even Northwest India has recorded 24.7% more rainfall. So, while March and April rainfall stood at the deficient mark, May rainfall so far stands at a surplus of 85.7% (all figures up to May 27). Together, the pre-monsoon season, which is March 1 to May 31 of a given year, now stands at a 28.3% surplus. Parts of northeast India, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, and Himachal Pradesh have however seen deficient pre-monsoon rainfall this year (March to May). Meanwhile, the Saurashtra and Kachchh region has seen 17 times the normal rainfall; the Gujarat subdivision has seen nearly 12 times; Konkan and Goa 19 times, and Vidarbha four times the normal rainfall this pre-monsoon season. Raghu Murtugudde, retired professor at the Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay and emeritus professor, University of Maryland, said that the current thunderstorms (in May) are mostly due to the winds over the Arabian Sea meeting the winds from the Bay of Bengal, which is happening over peninsular and eastern India. 'That is firing up some rainfall events. Yes, it's unusual for a pre-monsoon period. But we have had unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific since 2023,' he said. M Mohapatra, the director general of IMD, called the May rainfall as 'not such a regular occurrence'. 'Frequency of western disturbances has been higher this year. Consecutive WDs have brought all this rainfall activity, thunderstorms, hailstorm, fall in temperature etc. The more southern latitude echoes of these WDs also help incursion of moisture from Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. So that has caused this type of activity. It is a big country, there cannot be only one factor,' said Mohapatra. When asked about the accuracy of IMD's forecast for May, Mohapatra noted that the IMD had forecast above normal rainfall activity for the month of May. 'We gave spatial map which showed most parts of India to have above normal rainfall. Yes, we had forecast heatwaves, but that did not occur much.' In a press conference on Tuesday, Mohapatra stated that the month of May saw five to seven western disturbances develop, become active and extend up to Central India. This was the primary reason behind thunderstorms in many parts of India, which in turn brought down temperatures. Farmers hit The southwest monsoon – when it is on time – is the lifeblood of Indian agriculture, supporting over 50% of the country's farmland and contributing significantly to the economy through the Kharif crop season. This year, unseasonal rains in May have caused widespread crop losses in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat and many other regions. 'It would usually not rain so much in May. We had a good crop this time around. But the weather got adverse. My banana trees already had fruits on them and they could not bear the impact of thunder and rain. It is all in God's hands now,' said farmer Govind Kushwaha from Kushinagar district of Uttar Pradesh. Kushwaha had planted bananas on one acre of land. Half his trees have fallen due to the unseasonal rain on May 22. His fruits are now impacted – the harvest will be less than expected, and quality of what remains will be compromised due to exposure to the rains, resulting in poor demand or low prices in the market. Mango farmers are also badly hit in Uttar Pradesh. Awadh Mango Producers Bagwani Samiti Malihabad general secretary Upendra Singh said that farmers who had protected their mangoes using a technique called bagging (putting a net mesh over the fruit) managed to save their crop, but those who had not taken that precaution are facing heavy losses. 'This kind of weather is not good for horticulturalists. Thunderstorms have led to large scale losses in Lucknow, Meerut, Saharanpur, Aligarh, Jhansi and many parts of Western UP. These mangoes that have prematurely fallen have been damaged and will find no takers,' said Singh. Western disturbances Owing to India's sheer size, the unusual rainfall activity in May cannot be attributed to one weather phenomenon alone. Multiple meteorological factors such as western disturbances, upper air cyclonic circulations, troughs and deep depressions, interaction of winds from the west and east are all contributing factors. Western disturbances are storms that predominantly affect North India and Pakistan during winters. This year, these storms picked up from late January onwards. Western disturbances travel across the year but in different latitudes. They travel in lower latitudes during winters bringing significant amounts of rain and snow over North India. Meanwhile, in summers, these weather systems tend to travel in higher latitudes, confining snow and rainfall activities to the higher reaches of the region, according to research put together by Delhi-based think-tank Climate Trends. However, climate change might be changing the very nature of these Western disturbances. For example, Western disturbances dumped a lot of rainfall over western Himalayas in April. KJ Ramesh, Former Director General of Meteorology, IMD had said in April, 'Global warming has led to rapid warming of the Arabian Sea, which then emits more moisture northwards. Now, when the amplitude of Western Disturbances extends up to the North Arabian Sea, more moisture is fed into the system, resulting in intense weather activity over the hills.' Scientists have warned of an increasingly erratic trend in Western Disturbances amid global warming. AP Dimri, Director, Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, said that increasing heat stress has also altered characteristics of Western Disturbances. 'Growing evidence shows that Western Disturbances are impacting weather outside the winter season, leading to extreme precipitation events. There is no doubt that increasing heat stress is the basis of everything, as it is generating more energy and at the same time pushing moisture upwards,' said Dimri. These shifting weather patterns align with broader climate change trends, where rising global temperatures are intensifying extreme weather events, from unseasonal rains to altered storm cycles, posing new challenges for India's climate resilience.
News18
27-05-2025
- Climate
- News18
IMD Predicts Excess Rains For India This June, Upgrades Monsoon Forecast To Above-Normal
Last Updated: The southwest monsoon is expected to bring above-normal rainfall across the country during the next four months. After arriving at the Kerala coast eight days early, the southwest monsoon is expected to bring above-normal rainfall across the country during the next four months. Rainfall is likely to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), which falls in the 'Above Normal' category, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The weather department has slightly revised its monsoon forecast for the June to September period, predicting rainfall at 106 per cent of the long-term average, up from its earlier estimate of 105 per cent. This forecast comes with a possible variation of plus or minus 4 per cent. The weather department is also confident that June will see 'Above Normal' rainfall, estimated at around 108 per cent of the Long Period Average. However, the distribution of rainfall is expected to vary across different regions of the country. 'Since there will be above-normal rains in June, the number of heatwave days in June are likely to be below-normal. We are not expecting many heatwave days in June," said IMD DG Dr M Mohapatra. While rainfall is expected to be above normal in southern and central India, which typically experience the core of the monsoon season, parts of northwest India are likely to receive normal rainfall, and the northeastern region may see below-normal rains. After arriving over the Kerala coast eight days ahead of schedule, the monsoon has been rapidly advancing across southern India. It has already reached Mumbai nearly two weeks early and is expected to cover Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh soon. First Published: May 27, 2025, 17:05 IST
Mint
20-05-2025
- Climate
- Mint
Rainfall alert! Monsoon to arrive early this year? What does unusual May weather indicate? All answers here
Several parts of the country are witnessing rainfall, frequent thunder and dust storms and below-normal maximum temperatures, an unusual phenomenon in the month of May, indicating the arrival of monsoon. However, as per experts, this unusual phenomenon will not impact the onset of the Southwest Monsoon, which is likely to arrive early in the last week of May, according to a report by the Hindustan Times (HT). The monsoon is anticipated to arrive in Kerala on May 27, earlier than the usual date of June 1. However, it is difficult to predict the amount of rainfall the state will receive. 'As forecast by us we are expecting an early onset of monsoon over Bay of Bengal and over Kerala around May 27 but onset cannot be linked to quantum of rain. After onset, how much rainfall will be received needs to be seen and monitored,' Mohapatra informed. On Monday, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) issued an orange alert for six districts in Kerala, including Thrissur, Malappuram, Kozhikode, Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod districts, as heavy rains lashed various parts of the state. A yellow alert has been issued for Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam and Palakkad. The formation of a heat low in Northwest India is one of the important factors for a normal monsoon in India. This forms a low-pressure trough that draws moist air from the monsoon trough. Without this, the monsoon could be insufficient. Currently, there is no formation of a heat low. 'Due to frequent western disturbances and moisture incursion, we are seeing intermittent thunderstorm activity and above normal rainfall. During May, temperatures have largely been below normal or normal over most parts of the country except Rajasthan where a heat wave is being recorded in some areas,' M Mohapatra, director general IMD told HT. 'During the last week of May we are expecting heat wave area to expand covering Haryana and parts of Uttar Pradesh,' Mohapatra said. Notably, the absence or a weak heat low will result in a poor monsoon. According to the IMD, the monsoon rainfall from June to September is expected to be 'above normal' at 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. 'It appears that as forecast by IMD, the onset of monsoon will happen much earlier than normal. I do not see the temperatures in May impacting the onset. We cannot say anything about the quantum of rain right away,' M Rajeevan, former secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences told HT. Meanwhile, on Monday, the Southwest Monsoon advanced towards some parts of the south Arabian Sea, the Maldives and the Comorin area; the South Bay of Bengal, some more parts of the central Bay of Bengal and the Northeast Bay of Bengal.
Hindustan Times
19-05-2025
- Climate
- Hindustan Times
May weather will not likely hit early monsoon onset: Experts
May has seen unusual weather in India, marked by frequent thunder- and dust-storms and below normal maximum temperatures over most parts of the country, but experts are convinced that this anomaly will not affect the onset of the Southwest Monsoon, which is expected to arrive early, in the last week of May. One important factor for a normal monsoon over the country is formation of a so-called 'heat low' over Northwest India. This creates a trough of low pressure that sucks moist air from the monsoon trough . In the absence of this, the monsoon may be deficient. Right now, there is no heat-low. 'Due to frequent western disturbances and moisture incursion, we are seeing intermittent thunderstorm activity and above normal rainfall. During May, temperatures have largely been below normal or normal over most parts of the country except Rajasthan where a heat wave is being recorded in some areas,' said M Mohapatra, director general IMD. But that could change. 'During the last week of May we are expecting heat wave area to expand covering Haryana and parts of Uttar Pradesh,' Mohapatra added. To be sure, the absence of a heat low, or a weak one, could still mean a poor monsoon. 'As forecast by us we are expecting an early onset of monsoon over Bay of Bengal and over Kerala around May 27 but onset cannot be linked to quantum of rain. After onset, how much rainfall will be received needs to be seen and monitored,' Mohapatra explained. Monsoon rainfall during June to September, over the country is likely to be 'above normal' at 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%, IMD has said in its long range forecast. 'It appears that as forecast by IMD, the onset of monsoon will happen much earlier than normal. I do not see the temperatures in May impacting the onset. We cannot say anything about the quantum of rain right away,'added M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences. The Southwest Monsoon further advanced over some more parts of south Arabian Sea, Maldives and Comorin area; South Bay of Bengal; some more parts of central Bay of Bengal and some parts of Northeast Bay of Bengal on Monday. 'Conditions are favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon over some more parts of south Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Maldives and Comorin area; some more parts of South Bay of Bengal; some more parts of central Bay of Bengal, and some more parts of northeast Bay of Bengal during next 2-3 days,' IMD forecast. HT reported on May 9 that frequent, slow-moving western disturbances -- essentially, cyclones originating in the Mediterranean Sea and moving east -- in the first week of May have resulted in an unusually cool, rainy start to what is usually the peak summer month for northwest India. Western disturbances normally do not influence the Indian region in summer, they are mainly associated with winter rain. IMD's extended range forecast shows widespread rainfall over Kerala and peninsular region between May 22 and 29. On April 30, IMD forecast a higher number of heat wave days and above normal temperatures over most parts of the country in May. 'Temperatures are high above 46 degree C over some stations, but heat low has not formed yet. Temperatures may drop by 2 to 3 degrees C in next 3 to 4 days. As there are chances of isolated thunderstorm activities over Northwest India,' said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather. Palawat added that while a heat low is an important component of a good monsoon, so far models do not indicate the monsoon will be impacted. 'It is needed for the initial push, however, other prevailing factors, such as active weather systems at the time can compensate for that.' Data also reflects the unusual May being recorded in northwest India. For instance, Delhi is yet to record a single heatwave day this month. It saw four such days in April. It has also recorded 92.7mm in monthly rainfall — over three times the normal long-period average of 30.7mm. 'While April was fairly dry, May has been the opposite with short but intense spells a common occurrence, primarily due to western disturbances impacting one after the other in the form of a cyclonic circulation,' Palawat added, stating such activity is expected to continue this week in the region too.
