Latest news with #MacquarieGroup
CNA
20 hours ago
- Business
- CNA
Dollar holds steady after ECB leaves rates alone, tariffs and Fed in focus
The dollar traded sideways against the euro on Thursday after the European Central Bank held rates steady, and was wedged between prospects for higher Japanese rates that supported the yen and worries about political risk after Sunday's elections. The European Central Bank left interest rates steady at 2 per cent, as expected, on Thursday, taking a break after a year of policy easing to wait for clarity over Europe's future trade relations with the United States. "The view that the ECB is probably on hold here is probably gaining a bit more traction. We've trimmed expectations for the cuts in September to certainly less than 50/50," said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. The Japanese central bank's deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, said Tuesday's trade deal with Washington had reduced economic uncertainty, comments that fuelled optimism in the market about the potential resumption of interest rate hikes. Analysts believe the yen will face persistent headwinds after Sunday's upper house election, with the opposition considering a no-confidence motion. The European Union is nearing a deal that would impose a broad 15 per cent tariff on EU goods, diplomats said. The rate, which could also extend to cars, would mirror the framework agreement the United States struck with Japan. "The ECB faces a challenge that is quantitatively different from the BoJ's," said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. "The euro has appreciated by far more than the JPY so far in 2025, meaning that the disinflationary impulse from U.S. import tariffs may be greater in the EU than in Japan, or the ECB may suspect as much," he added. PMI data showed fragility in France following budget-cut proposals there, but also resilience in Germany and other parts of the euro zone. Data showed that German business activity continued to grow marginally in July. "As of now, there has been very little tariff impact on the hard data," said Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies. ECONOMIC FALLOUT Meanwhile, risk assets rallied as the trade deals eased fears over the economic fallout of a global trade war. Next week the Federal Open Market Committee meets and is expected to leave rates where they are as policy makers wait for the expected impact from tariffs on inflation and growth to show up. A number of U.S. employment releases next week culminate with Friday's big June payrolls report, while the July Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the first revision to 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product could also move markets. "A lot of event risk next week and not just from the Fed, we've got a lot of data next week as well, so that's probably going to shape expectations to some extent for September," Osborne said. The euro was 0.17 per cent firmer at $1.1786, not far from $1.1830 it hit earlier this month, which marked its strongest level in more than three years. Against the yen, the dollar was 0.07 per cent weaker at 146.39, and hit a fresh 2-week low earlier in the session at 145.86. Olivier Korber, forex strategist at Societe Generale, expects the yen to strengthen further, citing support from the trade deal and prospects for higher interest rates. Ishiba denied on Wednesday he had decided to quit after a source and media reports said he planned to announce his resignation to take responsibility for a bruising upper house election defeat. Currencies mostly shrugged off news that U.S. President Donald Trump, a vocal critic of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will visit the central bank on Thursday, a surprise move that escalates tensions between the administration and the Fed. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies including the euro and yen, was off 0.03 per cent at 97.17.
Zawya
a day ago
- Business
- Zawya
Dollar rises against euro, mixed versus yen on trade deal progress
The dollar edged higher against the euro on Thursday following progress in U.S. trade talks with key partners, but was mixed versus the yen, which got a lift from expectations for higher rates while political risks weigh. The Japanese central bank's deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, said a trade deal with Washington had reduced economic uncertainty, comments that fuelled optimism in the market about the potential resumption of interest rate hikes. Analysts believe the yen will face persistent headwinds after Sunday's upper house election, with the opposition considering a no-confidence motion . The European Union is nearing a deal that would impose a broad 15% tariff on EU goods, in line with economists' expectations, while markets await the European Central Bank policy meeting where President Christine Lagarde could comment on the recent strength of the single currency. "The ECB faces a challenge that is quantitatively different from the BoJ's," said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. "The euro has appreciated by far more than the JPY so far in 2025, meaning that the disinflationary impulse from U.S. import tariffs may be greater in the EU than in Japan, or the ECB may suspect as much," he added. Expectations are for ECB policymakers to keep rates unchanged, though markets will look out for what they say about the outlook for monetary policy. Analysts expect the ECB to ease monetary policy if euro strength dampens economic growth and inflation by making imports cheaper and exports less competitive. PMI data showed fragility in France following budget cut proposals there, but also resilience in Germany and other parts of the euro zone. Data showed that German business activity continued to grow marginally in July. "As of now, there has been very little tariff impact on the hard data," said Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies. "But that does not mean it's not coming," he added, arguing it would take at least three months to see the fallout of trade duties on hard economic figures. ECONOMIC FALLOUT Meanwhile, risk assets rallied as the trade deals eased fears over the economic fallout of a global trade war. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose to an eight-month high of $0.6625 on Thursday. The euro fell 0.2% at $1.1749, not far from a high of $1.1830 it hit earlier this month, which marked its strongest level in more than three years. Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.05% to 146.55, snapping a three-day falling streak, after hitting a fresh 2-week low earlier in the session at 145.86. Olivier Korber, forex strategist at Societe Generale, expects the yen to strengthen further, citing support from the trade deal and prospects for higher interest rates. "The local press reported that he (Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba) should decide if he will resign in late August and, if that were to happen, a new party leader would probably be selected in September," Korber said. "This would ensure a smoother political transition, thus limiting market uncertainty," Ishiba denied on Wednesday he had decided to quit after a source and media reports said he planned to announce his resignation to take responsibility for a bruising upper house election defeat. Currencies mostly shrugged off news that U.S. President Donald Trump, a vocal critic of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will visit the central bank on Thursday, a surprise move that escalates tensions between the administration and the Fed.
Reuters
a day ago
- Business
- Reuters
Dollar rises against euro, mixed versus yen on trade deal progress
July 24 (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher against the euro on Thursday following progress in U.S. trade talks with key partners, but was mixed versus the yen, which got a lift from expectations for higher rates while political risks weigh. The Japanese central bank's deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, said a trade deal with Washington had reduced economic uncertainty, comments that fuelled optimism in the market about the potential resumption of interest rate hikes. Analysts believe the yen will face persistent headwinds after Sunday's upper house election, with the opposition considering a no-confidence motion. The European Union is nearing a deal that would impose a broad 15% tariff on EU goods, in line with economists' expectations, while markets await the European Central Bank policy meeting where President Christine Lagarde could comment on the recent strength of the single currency. "The ECB faces a challenge that is quantitatively different from the BoJ's," said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. "The euro has appreciated by far more than the JPY so far in 2025, meaning that the disinflationary impulse from U.S. import tariffs may be greater in the EU than in Japan, or the ECB may suspect as much," he added. Expectations are for ECB policymakers to keep rates unchanged, though markets will look out for what they say about the outlook for monetary policy. Analysts expect the ECB to ease monetary policy if euro strength dampens economic growth and inflation by making imports cheaper and exports less competitive. PMI data showed fragility in France following budget cut proposals there, but also resilience in Germany and other parts of the euro zone. Data showed that German business activity continued to grow marginally in July. "As of now, there has been very little tariff impact on the hard data," said Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies. "But that does not mean it's not coming," he added, arguing it would take at least three months to see the fallout of trade duties on hard economic figures. Meanwhile, risk assets rallied as the trade deals eased fears over the economic fallout of a global trade war. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose to an eight-month high of $0.6625 on Thursday. The euro fell 0.2% at $1.1749, not far from a high of $1.1830 it hit earlier this month, which marked its strongest level in more than three years. Against the yen , the dollar rose 0.05% to 146.55, snapping a three-day falling streak, after hitting a fresh 2-week low earlier in the session at 145.86. Olivier Korber, forex strategist at Societe Generale, expects the yen to strengthen further, citing support from the trade deal and prospects for higher interest rates. "The local press reported that he (Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba) should decide if he will resign in late August and, if that were to happen, a new party leader would probably be selected in September," Korber said. "This would ensure a smoother political transition, thus limiting market uncertainty," Ishiba denied on Wednesday he had decided to quit after a source and media reports said he planned to announce his resignation to take responsibility for a bruising upper house election defeat. Currencies mostly shrugged off news that U.S. President Donald Trump, a vocal critic of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will visit the central bank on Thursday, a surprise move that escalates tensions between the administration and the Fed.
CNA
a day ago
- Business
- CNA
Dollar rises against euro, mixed versus yen on trade deal progress
The dollar edged higher against the euro on Thursday following progress in U.S. trade talks with key partners, but was mixed versus the yen, which got a lift from expectations for higher rates while political risks weigh. The Japanese central bank's deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, said a trade deal with Washington had reduced economic uncertainty, comments that fuelled optimism in the market about the potential resumption of interest rate hikes. Analysts believe the yen will face persistent headwinds after Sunday's upper house election, with the opposition considering a no-confidence motion. The European Union is nearing a deal that would impose a broad 15 per cent tariff on EU goods, in line with economists' expectations, while markets await the European Central Bank policy meeting where President Christine Lagarde could comment on the recent strength of the single currency. "The ECB faces a challenge that is quantitatively different from the BoJ's," said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. "The euro has appreciated by far more than the JPY so far in 2025, meaning that the disinflationary impulse from U.S. import tariffs may be greater in the EU than in Japan, or the ECB may suspect as much," he added. Expectations are for ECB policymakers to keep rates unchanged, though markets will look out for what they say about the outlook for monetary policy. Analysts expect the ECB to ease monetary policy if euro strength dampens economic growth and inflation by making imports cheaper and exports less competitive. PMI data showed fragility in France following budget cut proposals there, but also resilience in Germany and other parts of the euro zone. Data showed that German business activity continued to grow marginally in July. "As of now, there has been very little tariff impact on the hard data," said Mohit Kumar, economist at Jefferies. "But that does not mean it's not coming," he added, arguing it would take at least three months to see the fallout of trade duties on hard economic figures. ECONOMIC FALLOUT Meanwhile, risk assets rallied as the trade deals eased fears over the economic fallout of a global trade war. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose to an eight-month high of $0.6625 on Thursday. The euro fell 0.2 per cent at $1.1749, not far from a high of $1.1830 it hit earlier this month, which marked its strongest level in more than three years. Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.05 per cent to 146.55, snapping a three-day falling streak, after hitting a fresh 2-week low earlier in the session at 145.86. Olivier Korber, forex strategist at Societe Generale, expects the yen to strengthen further, citing support from the trade deal and prospects for higher interest rates. "The local press reported that he (Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba) should decide if he will resign in late August and, if that were to happen, a new party leader would probably be selected in September," Korber said. "This would ensure a smoother political transition, thus limiting market uncertainty," Ishiba denied on Wednesday he had decided to quit after a source and media reports said he planned to announce his resignation to take responsibility for a bruising upper house election defeat.
The Guardian
a day ago
- Business
- The Guardian
Macquarie's famed pay packages under attack from disgruntled shareholders at AGM
Macquarie Group has been stung by a shareholder backlash against its executive pay plans amid disquiet over a string of regulatory prosecutions. Investors lodged votes against Macquarie's remuneration plans in excess of 25%, in a major rebuke of the company's famed pay packages, triggering a 'first strike' at its annual general meeting in Sydney on Thursday. A remuneration report requires a 25% opposing vote to trigger a strike, as opposed to the usual majority required for ordinary resolutions. Under rules designed to hold directors accountable for executive pay, shareholders will get a chance to spill the board next year if they deliver another strike. The Macquarie chair, Glenn Stevens, said at the AGM that a number of shareholders had expressed a view that the board had not adequately reflected 'risk shortcomings'. 'The board hears your message and will reflect carefully on addressing those concerns,' Stevens said. Sign up: AU Breaking News email In May, the chair of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, Joe Longo, issued a stinging critique of Macquarie after announcing the fourth regulatory action against the company in just over 12 months. Longo said at the time Asic had 'ongoing and deep concerns' with Macquarie over its 'weak remediation of longstanding issues'. Asic alleged in May that Macquarie's securities business engaged in misleading conduct by misreporting millions of short sales to the market operator for more than 14 years. Short sales refer to investors taking a position on an asset they expect to fall in value. Macquarie said it had remedied those issues, implemented additional controls and was reviewing the regulator's claim. The company could not comment further on Thursday given it is a live legal matter. Macquarie is well-known for its huge pay packets, which are tightly linked to company profits. The Macquarie chief executive, Shemara Wikramanayake, earned $24m during the last 12-month reporting period, mostly consisting of bonuses, making her one of Australia's highest paid executives. While shareholders usually lodge a protest vote against executive pay when a company is performing poorly, there are times investors use it to tell the board they are unhappy about other issues. Woolworths received a remuneration strike in 2023 after shareholders over concerns with the supermarket's response to the death of two workers, one of whom was killed after being hit by pallets at a distribution centre. Sign up to Breaking News Australia Get the most important news as it breaks after newsletter promotion Macquarie also faced a climate-focused shareholder resolution calling on the company to outline how its financing for fossil fuel projects aligned with its net zero commitments. The resolution, which did not receive majority support, asked the bank to disclose its exposure to fossil fuel companies and its plans for financing them. Activists are particularly unhappy with Macquarie's support for the planned large gas fracking project in the Northern Territory's Beetaloo basin. 'The reality is that Macquarie's fossil fuel financing activity is categorically not aligned with its climate commitments,' Kyle Robertson, an analyst at the climate activist group Market Forces, told the AGM. While many financiers have climate policies, they often allow for the development of new fossil fuel reserves, rubbing against analysis showing emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure are more than enough to push the world beyond its climate goals. Stevens said the company's position was in line with the policies of the federal government, which allows for the expansion of gas production during the transition to renewable energy. 'That is part of the transition; Macquarie is involved in that,' Stevens said.
