Latest news with #MacquarieGroup
Perth Now
4 hours ago
- Business
- Perth Now
Investment bank to face heat over climate commitments
Australia's largest investment bank will be in activists' sights when shareholders gather at its global headquarters for its annual general meeting. Environmental group Market Forces plans to have a four-metre-tall mock gas flare outside Macquarie Group's new Martin Place offices in Sydney on Thursday morning, representing the bank's financing of climate pollution. At the meeting Macquarie faces its first climate-focused shareholder resolution calling on the $86 billion company to outline how its financing for fossil fuel projects is aligned with its net-zero commitments. Activists say they're concerned about Macquarie's commitment to global climate goals after the bank followed US peers JPMorgan, Citi and Bank of America in exiting the Net Zero Banking Alliance in February, not long after President Donald Trump took office. Macquarie has more than doubled its financing for oil and gas in the past two years, Market Forces says. "Macquarie's reputation as a green financial institution is completely at odds with its investments in one of Australia's biggest new gas developments," said Market Forces policy analyst Morgan Pickett, referring to its financing of a $100 million gas fracking project in the Northern Territory's Beetaloo Basin. Macquarie in late 2024 provided the funding for two of the gas companies most active in the Basin, Beetaloo Energy Australia and Tamboran Resources. Australia's Department of Industry, Science and Resources says Beetaloo has the potential to rival the world's best gas projects, and developing it could create thousands of jobs and drive significant economic growth in the territory. Activists say moving ahead with another gas project is irresponsible as the planet tips further into a climate emergency. "As a climate scientist, I'm appalled that Macquarie Group is claiming to be green yet is lending to companies blasting ahead with new gas projects adding to irreversible global warming," Lesley Hughes, climate change scientist and emerita professor of biology, said in a statement provided by Market Forces. Macquarie is recommending shareholders reject the climate resolution, which asks the bank to disclose its exposure to fossil fuel companies and detail its approach for funding them in light of its goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. Macquarie says the science behind climate change is "clear and unequivocal" but it believes in "a managed, orderly and just transition". "This means supporting carbon-intensive industries and companies including those in the oil/gas, electricity, agriculture, mining, transport and waste sectors to decarbonise, while protecting the vital services and jobs that our communities rely on," Macquarie said. Market Forces says four global investors have backed the shareholder resolution: the pension funds of New York City, the UK's Church of England and the largest private pension fund in Norway, as well as Melbourne-based fund manager ELM Responsible Investments.
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Hilton's upbeat Q2 earnings: Why this analyst is still Neutral
Hilton (HLT) posted higher profit and revenue in the second quarter and raised its full-year outlook, but softer net income guidance and weaker occupancy are dragging on investor sentiment. Chad Beynon, Macquarie Group gaming, lodging & theatres analyst, joins Market Catalysts to explain why Hilton's upscale mix is a key factor behind his Neutral rating on the stock. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. Let's continue this travel conversation because Hilton is posting higher profit and revenue in the second quarter. It also raised its earnings outlook for the year. Still, the hotel operator's revenue per available room fell half a percent due to occupancy decline. Joining me now, Chad Beynon, Macquarie Group, Gaming, lodging, and theaters analyst. It's good to see you. So, um, as we are looking at, uh, these numbers, it looks like the company did trim its net income forecast a little bit. Um, although some of its metrics look good, what's your read on the quarter? Yeah, sure. Julie, thanks for having me. Uh, second quarter came in slightly better than expected. I think some of that was timing around termination fees and just kind of how, um, the holidays impacted some leisure versus, uh, business travel. Um, their third quarter guidance came in a little below expectations and where consensus was. So positive on Q2, negative on Q3, and then for the year, they kind of, uh, stood pat in terms of how they were thinking about the year. I would say the tone was slightly more positive, particularly, um, calling for more of a business travel recovery, uh, in the back half of the year. And then as it relates to the leisure traveler, as your last guest talked about, um, I think things are fine. I think consumers continue to prioritize experiences and we saw that, uh, this summer, uh, effects could be a slight positive because, uh, going to Europe or leaving the country is a little bit more expensive this year. Um, so as we've seen, uh, you know, people might stay closer home and vacation, uh, with drive to or shorter haul flights. Well, and I was talking earlier too about what we heard from the airlines, which seemed to be that sort of full service premium customers were holding up better. Are we seeing that play out in the lodging world as well? Absolutely. Uh, when we analyze the chain scale, uh, trends, um, revenue and occupancy in the United States, um, those higher-end full-service brands continue to outperform. I think that's been the case for almost a year now. So it certainly calls the question what's going on with that lower-end economy chain scale focused, uh, uh, brand or portfolio. Uh, so we continue to like those that lean a little bit more upscale, as we know the consumer is kind of fickle here. Um, you know, people are enjoying experiences. But the last two or three years, I think people extended their budgets in every, uh, age bracket. So the, uh, you know, people in that luxurious, uh, level were spending a little bit more. But also people in kind of the lower chain scales were, were spending more. So that's kind of what we're keeping an eye on. And our ratings kind of reflect a view towards some of the higher-end, uh, brands. Well, I was going to ask, I know you got a neutral rating, right? On Hilton? Um, is that why? Because they, you know, just because of their sort of hotel mix and who who their who their audience is? Yeah, I'd say fundamentally, I think net unit growth has probably been better than expected, uh, during the past couple years. The Rev par, uh, which is a key focus for analysts, um, has been roughly in line. I think one of the reasons why lodging stocks outperformed in 23 and 24, uh, compared to, uh, the S&P, it's really the business model, right? The franchisor business model continues, um, to receive praise from investors. And it was about a 10% outperformance for the group in 23 and in 24. So we're looking at these stocks trading, you know, around 30 times earnings, which is where we see high growth stocks, uh, in the market trading. So they're clearly in that category. And that's kind of been why we've maintained our neutral rating. It's certainly above historical trading levels and we are waiting for a little bit of a broader recovery, uh, to become more constructive on Hilton. Related Videos US equities lead 2025 ETF flows: A closer look at global trends Hasbro Q2 beat, MARA to raise $850M, Otis issues weak guidance GE Vernova, Thermo Fisher, Enphase Energy: Trending Tickers Japanese auto stocks are surging on Trump's tariff deal Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
CNN
12 hours ago
- Business
- CNN
Markets are absolutely booming under Trump. They're about to face a huge test
Six months into President Donald Trump's second term, a quick glance at the stock market might offer a reassuring picture: The S&P 500 just closed above 6,300 points for the first time ever and has notched eight record highs in the past month. If you look at markets halfway into the year, it might be not be apparent that there has been unprecedented trade turmoil, conflict in the Middle East and relentless attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence. The stock market and bitcoin have soared to record highs, while bonds have resumed a steady rally and volatility in oil prices has subsided. Global markets so far this year have been remarkably resilient. The calm mood on Wall Street is an extraordinary change from early April, when the S&P 500 hit its lowest level in over a year and was on the precipice of a bear market after Trump unveiled his initial 'Liberation Day' tariffs. 'Perhaps the move by US stocks off the early-April lows is emblematic of the age-old adage about bull markets often climbing a 'wall of worry,'' Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon, investment strategists at Charles Schwab, said in a note. 'There is no shortage of things to worry about; but that's the wall markets often climb.' Markets are floating near record highs despite underlying tariff uncertainty. While investors have begun to shrug off a myriad of concerns, US stocks are trading at historically expensive valuations as Trump's self-imposed August 1 tariff deadline approaches. As Trump presses forward with his trade war, markets' momentum will face a tariff test. 'What has held stocks aloft … is the premise that whatever tariff increases come on August 1, they will not be permanent,' Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said in a note. 'The prospect that 'deals' will be struck thereafter remains a factor, we believe, in keeping traders from selling stocks more aggressively,' Wizman said. Jeff Buchbinder and Adam Turnquist, strategists at LPL Financial, said in a note that the S&P 500's 'unusually sharp and swift 'V-shaped recovery'' from its low point in early April was 'one of the most powerful post-correction rebounds in stock market history.' The ferocity of the market's recovery has raised questions about whether it is supported by fundamentals — or if underlying weakness could arise. While the market experienced bouts of enormous volatility in recent months, stocks continue to push higher. The S&P 500 is up 5.2% since Trump took office. Trump has acknowledged the market's rebound. The president earlier this month told NBC News that 'tariffs have been very well received,' noting that the 'stock market hit a new high.' The 'softening' of initial tariff announcements has 'removed the worst-case scenarios' for outlooks for economic growth and inflation, investors at BlackRock said in a note, which has supported the market's rally. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers trading platform, told CNN that the rally has also been driven by momentum and a fear of missing out. 'Ever since the president's about-face in early April that turned the market around, a lot of money has been made basically by investors assuming that these tariffs will be postponed, renegotiated or otherwise watered down,' Sosnick said. 'And if there's a trade that works very well for people over a long period of time, they're going to keep doing it.' Meanwhile, bitcoin last week surged to a record high above $123,000 as Republicans in Congress pressed forward with landmark legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies. Economists at the consultancy Capital Economics said in a note that they think the 'US economy will weather the global trade war,' enabling the S&P 500 to rise further. However, they said, Trump's 'unpredictable approach' to trade and attacks on the Fed's independence could 'trigger' a downturn in stocks. 'The widespread assumption among market participants still appears to be that the president will not follow through on threats to raise tariffs much further and that Chair Powell will remain in place, but that may prove too optimistic,' they said. The S&P 500 has not posted a gain or loss of more than 1% since June 24. It's a sign that momentum has slowed down. Bitcoin traded around $119,000 as of Tuesday. Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, said she thinks markets might be complacent about potential risks, given stocks are historically expensive. While stocks and bonds have emerged relatively unscathed, one outlier is the US dollar, which has continued a precipitous decline. The US dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against six major foreign currencies, is down almost 11% since Trump took office. Gold and silver, meanwhile, have continued to serve as hedges against Trump's trade uncertainty. The yellow and silver precious metals have soared 30% and 35% this year, respectively. The rally in recent months has been driven by retail investors, or individuals buying their own stocks, as opposed to Wall Street institutions, according to Venu Krishna, an equity strategist at Barclays. 'Re-risking by institutional money remains muted, making it likely that retail investors were at the helm for the latest leg of the rally,' Krishna said. He estimates retail investors poured more than $50 billion into global stocks across the past month. Investors who bought the dip when markets dropped in April have been rewarded with an extraordinary march to fresh highs. The S&P 500 has gained almost 27% since its low point in April. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has soared almost 37%. The smaller Nasdaq 100 has gone 62 days without crossing below its 20-day moving average, which is the second longest streak on record after a 77-day streak in 1999, according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief markets technician at investment firm BTIG. And Wall Street money that has been on the sidelines has been creeping back into the market. A survey of global fund managers in July by Bank of America showed the biggest surge in 'risk appetite' on record. The survey also showed the most bullish sentiment since February. Ethan Harris, a market watcher and former economist at Bank of America, said in a post on LinkedIn that Trump's tariff announcements could be characterized as 'Trump always tries again,' as opposed to 'Trump always chickens out.' 'His aggressive announcements are a way to test what he can 'get away with,'' Harris said. 'Hence the steady flow of new threats, partial retreats and then more threats.' As stocks hold near record highs as Trump's trade deadline approaches, it remains to be seen whether markets will push back on the president's plan to disrupt international trade. 'The bond vigilantes may or may not have started to make a comeback this year,' Harris said. 'Will the stock market become the trade war vigilante or remain complacent?'
Zawya
a day ago
- Business
- Zawya
Dollar dithers as investors await more tariff clarity
The dollar edged up on Tuesday, but activity across the currency market was subdued, as investors awaited any signs of progress in talks ahead of an August 1 deadline that could bring steep tariffs for U.S. trading partners that fail to strike deals. The yen mostly held on to gains from the previous session following results from a weekend upper house election in Japan that proved no worse than what had already been priced in. Focus was now on how quickly Tokyo can strike a trade deal with Washington and on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's future at the helm. With little over a week to go before August 1, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday the administration is more concerned with the quality of trade agreements than their timing. Asked whether the deadline could be extended for countries engaged in productive talks with Washington, Bessent said President Donald Trump would make that decision. Uncertainty over the eventual state of tariffs globally has been a huge overhang for the foreign exchange market, leaving currencies trading in a tight range for the most part, even as stocks on Wall Street have scaled fresh highs. "Nothing that happens on August 1 is necessarily permanent, so long as the U.S. administration remains willing to talk, as was indicated in Trump's letters from two weeks ago," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. The euro held steady at $1.1702. The European Central Bank is also in the mix this week, although it is not expected to adjust euro zone interest rates. A deal between the European Union, which could face 30% tariffs from August 1, and the U.S. remains elusive. EU diplomats said on Monday they were exploring a broader set of possible counter-measures given fading prospects for an agreement. "The Trump administration has shown little tolerance for retaliatory measures, and there is a risk this could spiral (even if temporarily) into a tit-for-tat tariff escalation. The euro's ability to maintain preference over the dollar amid tariff tensions will depend on the extent of any escalation and whether the EU emerges as a relative loser while other countries secure significant deals with the U.S.," ING strategist Francesco Pesole said. Separately, the ECB said in a survey on Tuesday that loan demand from euro zone companies improved last quarter and is expected to pick up in the current quarter, in spite of the threat of tariffs and higher geopolitical tensions. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was broadly unchanged at 97.829, having fallen 0.6% on Monday. Also weighing on investors' minds were worries about Federal Reserve independence, given Trump has repeatedly railed against Chair Jerome Powell and urged him to resign because of the central bank's reluctance to cut interest rates. "Our base case remains that solid U.S. data and a tariff-driven rebound in inflation will keep the FOMC on hold into 2026, and that the resulting shift in interest rate differentials will drive a continued rebound in the dollar in the next few months," said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics. "But that view is clearly at the mercy of the White House's whims." The yen remained in focus on Tuesday, trading a touch weaker on the day at 147.485, having gained 1% on Monday following the weekend election and a public holiday. "The initial relief for the yen that the ruling coalition did not lose even more seats and that Prime Minister Ishiba plans to hang on to power is likely to prove short-lived," said MUFG senior currency analyst Lee Hardman. "The pick-up in political uncertainty in Japan could complicate reaching a timely trade deal with the U.S., posing downside risks for Japan's economy and the yen." (Additional reporting by Rae Wee and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Rachna Uppal, Sharon Singleton and Chizu Nomiyama )
Reuters
2 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Dollar dithers as investors await more tariff clarity
SINGAPORE/LONDON, July 22 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up on Tuesday, but activity across the currency market was subdued, as investors awaited any signs of progress in talks ahead of an August 1 deadline that could bring steep tariffs for U.S. trading partners that fail to strike deals. The yen mostly held on to gains from the previous session following results from a weekend upper house election in Japan that proved no worse than what had already been priced in, with focus now on how quickly Tokyo can strike a trade deal with Washington and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's future at the helm. With little over a week to go before August 1, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday the administration is more concerned with the quality of trade agreements than their timing. Asked whether the deadline could be extended for countries engaged in productive talks with Washington, Bessent said President Donald Trump would make that decision. Uncertainty over the eventual state of tariffs globally has been a huge overhang for the foreign exchange market, leaving currencies trading in a tight range for the most part, even as stocks on Wall Street have scaled fresh highs. "Nothing that happens on August 1 is necessarily permanent, so long as the U.S. administration remains willing to talk, as was indicated in Trump's letters from two weeks ago," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. The euro eased slightly to $1.1692. The European Central Bank is also in the mix this week, although it is not expected to adjust euro zone interest rates. A deal between the European Union, which could face 30% tariffs from August 1, and the U.S. remains elusive. EU diplomats said on Monday they were exploring a broader set of possible counter-measures given fading prospects for an agreement. "The Trump administration has shown little tolerance for retaliatory measures, and there is a risk this could spiral (even if temporarily) into a tit-for-tat tariff escalation. The euro's ability to maintain preference over the dollar amid tariff tensions will depend on the extent of any escalation and whether the EU emerges as a relative loser while other countries secure significant deals with the U.S.," ING strategist Francesco Pesole said. Separately, the ECB said in a survey on Tuesday that loan demand from euro zone companies improved last quarter and is expected to pick up in the current quarter, in spite of the threat of tariffs and higher geopolitical tensions. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.1% to 97.91, having fallen 0.6% on Monday. Also weighing on investors' minds were worries about Federal Reserve independence, given Trump has repeatedly railed against Chair Jerome Powell and urged him to resign because of the central bank's reluctance to cut interest rates. "Our base case remains that solid U.S. data and a tariff- driven rebound in inflation will keep the FOMC on hold into 2026, and that the resulting shift in interest rate differentials will drive a continued rebound in the dollar in the next few months," said Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics. "But that view is clearly at the mercy of the White House's whims." The yen remained in focus on Tuesday, trading a touch weaker on the day at 147.64, having gained 1% on Monday following the weekend election and a public holiday. "The initial relief for the yen that the ruling coalition did not lose even more seats and that Prime Minister Ishiba plans to hang on to power is likely to prove short-lived," said MUFG senior currency analyst Lee Hardman. "The pick-up in political uncertainty in Japan could complicate reaching a timely trade deal with the U.S., posing downside risks for Japan's economy and the yen."
