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USA Today
6 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
Who will be the fantasy football RB1? Using trends to identify 4 candidates
Bell cow backs in the NFL are like Blockbuster stores. There used to be one on every street corner, and now you have to dish out for a flight to Bend, Oregon, to see the very last one in existence. In 2003, 13 running backs garnered at least 310 attempts. That's the same number we've had in the last 12 seasons combined. As a consequence, attempting to predict the top of fantasy football running back rankings can be more frustrating than contract negotiations with Jerry Jones. Since LaDainian Tomlinson accomplished the feat in '06 and '07, only one player has finished as fantasy's overall RB1 in consecutive seasons -- Todd Gurley in '17 and '18. In fact, here's how the last 10 top running back finishers have placed the following seasons: Yuck. The "RB1 Curse" might be more lethal than the "Madden Curse." One housekeeping item before we dive in. While the goal of this exercise is to come up with a short list of candidates to finish as the overall RB1 in 2025, that is not the sole purpose. We'll also be looking to unearth common denominators among the elite fantasy producers, apply them to this year's crop of backs, and identify the players who fit the criteria. For this exercise, we'll be digging into what the last 20 overall RB1s did the season before they finished atop the fantasy world. Who will be the top fantasy football running back in 2025? Here are the trends that will help us narrow the pool to a total of four candidates. (Note: All fantasy point references are half-PPR unless noted otherwise.) 28 — No running back older than 27 years old has finished as the overall RB1 since LaDainian Tomlinson way back in 2007. Some notable backs who don't fit that threshold: Saquon Barkley (28), Christian McCaffrey (29), Derrick Henry (31), and Alvin Kamara (30). 40 — Over the last 20 seasons, not a single back with an Average Draft Position (ADP) outside the top 40 at his position has finished as the overall RB1. 0.7 — Of the last 20 top running back finishers, 17 averaged more than 0.7 fantasy points per touch the previous season. In other words, look for players who produced in bunches when the ball was in their hands. Seems reasonable. 4.8 — On the topic of producing with they had the opportunity, 16 of the last 20 overall RB1s averaged at least 4.8 yards per touch the season before. 0.3 — While snap counts in the preceding season varied greatly among the last 20 RB1s, what they did with those snaps didn't. Sixteen of the 20 averaged at least 0.3 fantasy points per touch. 23 — This might be stating the obvious, but to have RB1 overall upside, a back needs to be utilized in the passing game. In our sample, 18 of the 20 players had at least 23 receptions the season before they were the RB1. Two players currently have an ADP inside the top 10 at the position but didn't haul in 23 catches: Derrick Henry (19) and Jonathan Taylor (18). 0 — In the last 30 years, zero rookie running backs have finished as the overall RB1. Saquon Barkley came within 2.3 half-PPR points of bucking that trend in 2018, but he was the lone anomaly in at least three decades. To put it another way, the RB1 is unlikely to be Ashton Jeanty. 330 — Ray Rice in 2011 was the only one of the last 17 RB1s to total more than 343 touches the season before. Fifteen of the last 17 had fewer than 330 regular-season touches. That doesn't bode well for five backs with a top-12 ADP at the position: Saquon Barkley (378), Bijan Robinson (365), Kyren Williams (350), Derrick Henry (344), and Josh Jacobs (337). Historical running back workload trends Since 2010, 42 running backs have totaled at least 337 touches in a season. Here are a couple of noteworthy trends. (Le'Veon Bell's 2018 season is excluded since he sat out.) 113.9 — Those backs totaled, on average, 113.9 fewer PPR points the following season. More than two-thirds (31) of those players saw their overall production drop by at least 18% and half experienced total point declines of 33% or more. 3.9 — It wasn't just that the heavy workloads led to missed action. Even when those players did suit up, production dropped by an average of 3.9 PPR points per game. Two-thirds of the backs endured per-game declines of more than 10%. These five running backs garnered at least 337 touches last season: Saquon Barkley (378), Bijan Robinson (365), Kyren Williams (350), Derrick Henry (344), and Josh Jacobs (337). So who are the fantasy football RB1 candidates? Here are the four players who checked all the boxes (ranked in order of positional ADP): Top fantasy football running back sleepers These three backs missed the cutoff in receptions and ADP but hit all other benchmarks. Consider them my favorite late-round dart throws. Some final notes All the NFL news on and off the field. Sign up for USA TODAY's 4th and Monday newsletter.
USA Today
29-06-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Should there be concerns about a 'Madden Curse' for Eagles' RB Saquon Barkley?
The concerns about Saquon Barkley's massive first-year workload are well-known, but we may be overblowing them. It's official. This has gone on longer than it should. Some of you need to hear this. We'd all do ourselves a solid if we retire the conversations about 'curses'. Here's a promise. Saquon Barkley's season with the Philadelphia Eagles won't be cut short by injury simply because Electronic Arts made him the cover athlete on the Madden NFL game. While this may come as a shock to some of you, the rest of us have never been more certain about anything. Is the 'Madden Curse' interesting to discuss? Sure, it is, but life doesn't work that way. Madden NFL's curse is a weird coincidence, but we're talking about the game of football. Injuries are, unfortunately, sometimes a part of the deal. During the most recent Eagles season, Barkley enjoyed a run that would make Hall of Famers and NFL icons of the past and present jealous. He became only the ninth player to exceed 2,000 yards rushing in a single season. He won the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award. He won a Super Bowl, was named a Pro Bowler, and earned First-Team All-Pro honors, but he logged over 345 carries in 2024, leading to some discussion about his upcoming season. Concern about Saquon Barkley's sophomore Eagles season has reached a fever pitch. Let's backtrack for a second. Our hearts go out to every victim of the so-called 'Madden Curse' and to everyone who has suffered an injury while playing our favorite game. From stars to the 16th man on the practice squad, we hope that everyone enjoys a great and injury-free NFL season, but again... That won't happen. Despite crafting one of the greatest seasons by a running back in the now 106-year history of our great game, no one has forgotten that Barkley is human. He carried the ball an NFL-leading 345 times during the regular season before leading all ball carriers with another 91 carries during the postseason run. That has led to legitimate concerns about his workload and his mortality. Since 2007, we have seen 25 instances in which an NFL running back has exceeded 370 touches during a single season. Only two players gained more total yardage the following year. Barkley rushed 436 times and caught an additional 46 passes. That's a ton. That is also why the Eagles added A.J. Dillon. Will Shipley enters year two. It may be time to employ more of a committee approach in the Eagles' backfield. Yes... We know... We know... Never has there ever been what's been deemed a '2k-yard club curse,' but we've all heard the discourse. Guys that exceed the 2,000 yards rushing never repeat the feat the following season. No one has ever exceeded 1,500 yards rushing the following year. What's the point, you ask? Well, there are several. One, every Eagles fan walking recognizes Barkley's value. While it may seem ridiculous to state the Eagles may want to explore strategies for lightening the game-day workload, keeping him fresh is worth the effort. He's terrific, but he isn't superhuman. Playing football's most punishing position takes its toll on everyone who does so. We'd also like to ease the minds of Birds fans. Nothing said here is foreign to Eagles coaches or the leadership structure. Be confident in knowing that one of football's most innovative organizations will figure out a plan for keeping one of its best players and assets upright. Last but not least... We repeat... There is NO SUCH THING AS A MADDEN CURSE. Saying Barkley is in danger of injury because of excessive wear and tear is one thing. Saying he'll be injured because of his likeness appearing on the cover of a video game is beyond ridiculous. In the end, we're all on the same team. He's signed through the 2028 Eagles season, making him eligible for free agency in 2029. That would give us five full years of the Saquon Barkley experience in an Eagles jersey. We all want to take in every second of the journey, hopefully without him missing any time. He playfully hinted at retirement. Hopefully, Barry Sanders talked him out of it. Year one was a thrill ride. Hopefully, year two is an injury-free, action-packed encore.
Newsweek
28-06-2025
- Sport
- Newsweek
NFL Writer Highlights Concerning Theories For Eagles' Saquon Barkley
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. When it comes to fantasy football predictions, fans might simply look the other way as the team's success is all that matters to them at the end of the day. But when a player was so critical to a team's success throughout the year, it's worth reading some interesting predictions and theories. A recent prediction regarding Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is something that "Birds" fans will have to wonder about. Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport labeled Barkley as a potential bust candidate for the 2025 NFL season. The word comes off as a bit dramatic because, again, it's fantasy football, but regression is regression, and "the Curse of 370" was explained. Read More: Jalen Hurts Praised For Uplifting An Eagles Star Through Uncertainty "Since 2007, there have been 25 instances where a running back surpassed 370 touches in a season. Of that group, only two gained more total yardage the following year. An equal number saw an increase in PPR points. That's less than 10 percent who increased their production," wrote Davenport. "Then, there's the '2K Club.' Of the eight RBs to rush for 2,000 yards in a season, not one gained even 1,500 rushing yards the following year. Six of those backs missed time the following season. The average decline in rushing yards after a 2,000-yard campaign? 966 yards. Forty-seven percent." And you thought the infamous "Madden Curse" was concerning. Saquon Barkley and the Eagles look to take care of business tonight against the Rams. Apply the BetMGM bonus code NEWSWEEK1500 at registration to score a $1,500 bet offer. Saquon Barkley and the Eagles look to take care of business tonight against the Rams. Apply the BetMGM bonus code NEWSWEEK1500 at registration to score a $1,500 bet the good news for the Eagles: a production regression is almost expected this year, since Barkley literally teased NFL history in 2024. Had the veteran running back played through the entire regular season, taking on his average of 22 carries during the final week of the regular season, Barkley would've broken a record that hasn't been touched since 1984. Read More: Eagles Star Delivered Thoughts On NFL's Failed Ban Attempt Despite the predicted regression, Barkley is still in a great situation in Philadelphia. The Eagles won't see too much turnover up front, meaning they'll head into the 2025 NFL season with one of the best offensive lines in the game. Without any setbacks in play since last the Eagles' Super Bowl run, Barkley is healthy heading into the new year. He could be poised for another big year, even if he doesn't have another 2,000-plus rushing year. Across six seasons with the New York Giants, Barkley exceeded 1,000 yards three times. Last year, he rushed for 2,005 yards with a career-high 345 carries. He surpassed his previous career-high in carries by 50 touches. For more Philadelphia Eagles and NFL news, head over to Newsweek Sports.
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Entertainment
- Yahoo
Eagles' Saquon Barkley Reveals New 'Non-Retirement' Plan
Eagles' Saquon Barkley Reveals New 'Non-Retirement' Plan originally appeared on Athlon Sports. We wrote it as soon as he said it. Mostly, Saquon Barkley seems to just be thinking out loud and toying with the idea when he mentioned the notion of an early retirement, unintentionally crushing the hearts of Philadelphia Eagles fans who want this ride to go on forever. Advertisement What was Barkley thinking? Way back in July of 1999, Barry Sanders was at the top of his game and yet stunned the NFL by announcing his retirement after a stellar 10-year career with the Detroit Lions. Sanders, who had made the Pro Bowl 10 times, was just 31 when he said goodbye. Fast-forward to a few days ago. "I'll probably be one of those guys that it'll be out of nowhere. I'll probably just wake up one day, whether it's next year or two years or four years, and just be like, 'Yeah it's over,'" Barkley said. Wait. What? A bit of context is merited here. It is during an interview with Chris Long on the latest edition of "The Green Light" podcast when the 28-year-old Barkley was asked if he is the kind of guy who might retire sooner rather than later. Advertisement And then the surprising answer, which adds up to the idea Barkley might consider retiring as early as following this season. At the same time, the superstar added, "I don't think I will ever lose that passion. I'm just a competitor. ... The competitive nature is always going to be there." And now we know more. Saquon met with the media on Wednesday and offered some clarity. 'I don't think I'll ever lose the passion for the game,' he said. 'The retiring thing, I think that caught a little fire on social media. I don't plan on retiring any time soon. The question was asked of me, and I don't have a set date, or how many years I want to play. Advertisement "I would love to play this game as long as God lets me, and my body lets me, so that's really it.' Good. Barkley is coming off a spectacular season in which he became just the ninth player in league history to cross the 2,000-yard barrier as he hit 2,005 yards. ... and then won a Super Bowl. Now he's married... on the Madden 26 cover... and the centerpiece of a team poised to win another one. Oh, and he's just 28. Maybe the idea popped into Saquon's mind because as he said, "One of my favorite players of all time, probably my favorite player of all time, is Barry Sanders, so probably similar to that. Maybe one day it will be out of nowhere. I'll probably be ballin' and just be like, 'Yeah' and call it quits." Advertisement But this week? What seems to be popping is his recognition that his Philadelphia Eagles have a grand chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions. So, one more time with feeling? 'I don't plan on retiring anytime soon," Barkley said. Related: Eagles' Saquon Barkley 'Believes in God,' Not 'Madden Curse' This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 11, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
09-06-2025
- Entertainment
- Yahoo
Eagles Legend Dismisses Madden Curse After Barkley Becomes Cover Star
Eagles Legend Dismisses Madden Curse After Barkley Becomes Cover Star originally appeared on Athlon Sports. Philadelphia Eagles legend Donovan McNabb has nothing but praise for Saquon Barkley's selection as the Madden NFL 26 cover athlete — and he's telling fans not to worry about any supposed 'curse' that might come with it. Advertisement Following the announcement that Barkley will grace the cover of this year's Madden game, featuring his iconic reverse hurdle against Jacksonville, McNabb weighed in on both the honor and the superstition that has long surrounded it. McNabb, who was the cover athlete for Madden NFL 06, called Barkley's selection 'absolutely well-deserved' and believes EA Sports made the right choice in recognizing the running back's incredible debut season in Philadelphia. 'I think for the Philadelphia Eagles organization, it's always a good thing when you have a representation of your organization and the success that you've had, especially leading into the next season,' McNabb said, emphasizing how significant it is for the franchise to have another player reach this level of recognition. The former Eagles quarterback noted that EA Sports would have made the right call with either Barkley or quarterback Jalen Hurts, especially after what they accomplished in winning a Super Bowl this past season. While many fans worry about the so-called 'Madden curse' — the superstition that players who appear on the game's cover suffer injuries or poor performance the following season — McNabb isn't buying into it. Despite undergoing season-ending surgery to repair a sports hernia during his own cover year, McNabb told TMZ Sports he doesn't believe in the curse and thinks there's proof it's 'a bunch of nonsense.' 'For Saquon, I think this is one [thing] he doesn't have to focus on,' McNabb said. 'I believe with that, and just continue to grind and get ready for a new season and hopefully the same outcome.' Advertisement Barkley becomes only the second Eagles player to appear on a Madden cover, joining McNabb in this exclusive club. When McNabb appeared on Madden NFL 06, he missed half of the season due to injuries and had a public feud with star receiver Terrell Owens — one of the more notable examples often cited when discussing the curse. However, recent history suggests the curse may be losing its power. Players like Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson have had strong seasons after appearing on Madden covers, with some even winning Super Bowls. McNabb highlighted how Barkley's recognition extends beyond just the Eagles organization. He pointed out that Barkley's dominance will have an impact on all running backs, serving as a reminder of how important success at the position is to the passing game. The former quarterback also acknowledged that being the 'Madden' guy puts players on another level of popularity, which also comes with more expectations. For his part, Barkley has said he doesn't believe in the Madden curse, stating 'I'm a believer in God' and noting that he's had injuries before without any curse being involved. His approach mirrors McNabb's view that success comes from preparation and execution, not superstition. Related: Eagles Need 'Now or Never' Approach From Kelee Ringo Related: Can Eagles' Jalen Hurts Reach New Heights in 2025? This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 9, 2025, where it first appeared.
