Latest news with #MatthewMartin
The Hill
5 days ago
- Business
- The Hill
Wholesale inflation spikes, putting Fed in tricky position
Wholesale prices increased in July at the quickest pace since February as economists are keeping a sharp eye on inflation data amid President Trump's trade war. The 0.9-percent monthly increase — which blew past economists' expectations — puts the Federal Reserve in a tough position as the central bank faces pressure on both sides of its mandate to keep prices low and employment as high as possible. The surprisingly weak July jobs report showed that employment conditions are worsening, but upward-moving prices mean the Fed will have to negotiate stagflationary concerns in the short term. 'After a string of data that pointed to greater odds of a September rate cut, the large upside surprise in the producer price data highlights the dilemma the Federal Reserve faces in judging the risks to its dual mandate,' Matthew Martin, an economist with Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary. Cutting interest rates could help support the job market by easing borrowing costs for businesses. But doing so could also add fuel to inflation, which has lingered at an annual rate of 2.7 percent for two months since June, according to the consumer price index (CPI).
Yahoo
25-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Oxford Economics says the crumbling housing market will continue deteriorating because of two key factors
The housing market continues to struggle with nearly high mortgage rates and home prices, driven by years of undersupply and slow home construction. Builders face higher costs and labor shortages, and home price growth is expected to slow this year as sellers pull homes off the market. If you thought the housing market was bad enough: Buckle up. Mortgage rates are still nearly 7% and home prices are 55% higher than they were at the beginning of 2020, according to the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. Housing inventory is slightly rising overall, but it's not doing so by nearly enough, a May report by the National Association of Realtors and shows. And an analyst note published this week by Oxford Economics said the housing market will continue to deteriorate this year. 'The supply of existing homes for sale is approaching pre-pandemic levels as a combination of high prices, elevated mortgage rates, and concerns over the labor market keep buyers sidelined,' Oxford Economics analyst Matthew Martin wrote in a note titled Recession Monitor – Real test for economy is just beginning. 'The new-home market is also being challenged, with builders continuing to offer incentives including price cuts in an effort to move unsold inventory.' Oxford Economics researchers also noted sellers will have less ability to pass along price increases. In other words, sellers will keep pulling their homes off the market if they can't get a sale price they think they deserve. Meanwhile, homebuilders will continue to face higher costs due to tariffs and a reduced labor force because of fewer immigrants and more deportations, according to Oxford Economics. This, in turn, will slow housing starts—a.k.a. new construction—which won't help inventory levels. 'A longstanding lack of inventory has supported both high prices and sluggish sales in the market for existing homes,' Daiwa Capital Markets analysts Lawrence Werther and Brendan Stuart wrote in a note published Wednesday. 'Substantial improvement is unlikely to materialize in the near term until mortgage rates (and/or prices) ease, thereby mitigating the current affordability challenges faced by potential buyers.' Affordability is also hurting builders, who have had to continue offering incentives and price cuts. 'Multiple years of undersupply are driving the record high home price. Home construction continues to lag population growth,' Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said in a statement. 'This is holding back first-time home buyers from entering the market.' 'We still don't have an abundance of homes that are affordable to low- and moderate-income households, and the progress that we've seen is not happening everywhere,' Chief Economist Danielle Hale said in a statement. 'It's been concentrated in the Midwest and the South.' However, that leads to one small silver lining predicted by Oxford Economics. Due to labor-market concerns and weak demand (thanks to currently high home prices and mortgage rates), they predict home price growth will slow and builders will limit new-home construction. 'Slower home price growth may provide a floor beneath sales,' Martin wrote, but 'household appetites for spending will largely hinge on the health of the labor market.' Despite a struggling housing market, Oxford Economics predicts the U.S. will avoid a recession this year and the Federal Reserve will start to 'cut rates aggressively' at the beginning of 2026. This story was originally featured on
Irish Independent
15-07-2025
- Climate
- Irish Independent
Thundery showers today, weather to remain ‘rather unsettled' this week
A cloudy and wet start is expected today, with outbreaks of rain and a few thundery showers possible in some parts. Met Éireann forecaster Matthew Martin said: 'Well, the weather has now turned quite unsettled. That's because the low pressure in the Atlantic has now moved close to Ireland.' "That's feeding in bands of rain and showers,' he added. Meanwhile, the drier and brighter weather will extend eastwards to many areas during the day, but there will be a few showers in the mix. Parts of the southwest are likely to stay cloudy and showery for much of today, as the highest temperatures will range between 16 and 20C today. We need your consent to load this Social Media content. We use a number of different Social Media outlets to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review your details and accept them to load the content Tonight, many parts of the country will remain dry and clear, but mist and fog might develop in some areas, especially across Connacht and west Ulster. However, the rain will spread across southwestern counties towards morning while temperatures are set to drop to 9 and 12C. Tomorrow morning, the showers will continue to extend across southern and southwestern areas, with temperatures between 17 and 22C. Elsewhere can enjoy sunny spells and largely dry weather, but it will turn cloudier during the afternoon and evening as patchy rain spreads from the southwest later in the day. Tomorrow night will be mostly cloudy, with a few patches of rain or drizzle in places at first, but overall the country will see a lot of dry weather. Meanwhile, more persistent rain will arrive into the southwest and west soon after midnight and before pushing northeastwards over Ireland. It will be a humid and mild Wednesday night, with temperatures not falling below 13 and 16C. According to British folklore, if it rains on St. Swithins Day, which is today, it will rain for the rest of the year.
Arab News
09-07-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Semafor appoints Saudi Arabia bureau chief as part of regional expansion
DUBAI: Semafor has appointed Matthew Martin as its Saudi Arabia bureau chief and global head of sovereign wealth fund coverage as the news platform expands its Gulf edition. He will head the growing team in Riyadh and be a part of the wider editorial staff led by Semafor Gulf editor Mohammed Sergie. Martin, who has over two decades of journalistic experience, was most recently Bloomberg's chief correspondent for SWFs in the Middle East and North Africa region. His focus was the role of SWFs in promoting local economies, diversification, investing for a post-oil future, and projecting soft power internationally. Prior to this, he served as Bloomberg's Saudi Arabia bureau chief and was responsible for the network's coverage of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen. He has been with Bloomberg since 2013, and moved from Dubai to Riyadh in January 2021, where his reporting focused on Saudi Arabia, particularly Aramco and the Kingdom's Public Investment Fund. 'Matt is the definitive reporter on one of the world's biggest stories, Saudi Arabia's transformation of itself and much of the world around it,' said Ben Smith, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Semafor. Martin's appointment 'marks a major step forward in Semafor's ambition to become the leading global media presence in the Gulf,' said Justin Smith, co-founder and CEO of Semafor (no relation to Ben). He added: 'We are not just covering the region but also how the ascendant Gulf story relates to the key corridors of US power and influence — Washington D.C., Wall Street and Silicon Valley — as well as the emerging ties between the Gulf and the African continent through collaborations with our Semafor Africa edition.' As Semafor continues to expand, its reporting will soon 'closely track Gulf-Asia and Gulf-EU corridors of influence as well,' Justin Smith said. Semafor Gulf launched in September 2024, marking the firm's third edition, joining its US and sub-Saharan Africa newsletters. Since then, the platform's reporting has included the UAE's plan to invest $1.4 trillion in the US, the state of foreign consulting in Saudi Arabia, OPEC+ strategy, and Gulf-Israel relations.
Mint
06-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
US college grads face muted job market, struggle to pay debt: Here's what it means for the upcoming job seekers
Recent college graduates in the United States are dealing with the toughest job landscape as unemployment among young adults is higher than it has ever been in over a decade. This unusual trend, excluding the pandemic time, is leaving students fresh out of US universities burdened with student debt, struggling to secure their first full-time job. Official data reveals that unemployment for young, recent graduates from US universities currently stands at 5.8%, which is the highest since November 2013 (excluding 15 months in the Covid pandemic). Notably, this figure remained stubbornly higher than the overall unemployment rate, which has stabilized between around 3.5 and 4% post-pandemic. The analysts call it 'an extremely unusual situation.' The labor market for new grads has weakened consistently since 2022, with new hiring down 16% in 2025, year-over-year, reported AFP. Analysts attribute this downturn to the following factors: Cyclical post-pandemic hiring slowdowns- Sectors that particularly hire a large number of new grads, like technology, finance, and business information are experiencing a slowdown. Economic Uncertainty- The "tumultuous early days' of the Trump administration contributed to overall economic uncertainty, causing firms to freeze hiring. Decline in openings for professional and business services - Job openings fell in these fields by more than 40% since 2021, with tech sector jobs disproportionately impacted. While a slower pace in hiring due to companies 'right-sizing' after previous high recruitment rates is a factor, the potential impact of AI on jobs is also being discussed. 'The sheer volume of decline also points to the impact of AI,"Matthew Martin, senior US economist at Oxford Economicstold AFP, signaling the potential of artificial intelligence technology to eliminate some entry-level roles. However Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, cautions against jumping to the conclusion that AI had already begun to eliminate entry-level roles, emphasizing that most companies are still in the early stages of adopting these technologies. The U.S. is perhaps the most expensive country for a university education, with an average cost of $27,673 per year for an undergraduate degree, according to official data. In 2020, 36.3% of US undergraduates took on federal student loans, the data shows, with the Education Data Initiative putting average student loan debt for graduating students at $29,550. Even without student loan debt, however, the weakening job market can leave some recent graduates feeling like they are stretched thin. In a similar instance, 25-year old Katie Bremer, who graduated from American University with a dual-degree in Environmental Science and Public Health in 2021 could not find a full-time job in over a year. She gradually found one but not in her field and even then, she had to supplement her income by babysitting. "I felt like I was constantly working," she told AFP. Martin warned that "It's likely to get worse before it gets better". Analysts mirrored a similar outlook, saying that there is little hope on the immediate horizon as it will likely take some time for the labor market to correct itself. A part of that adjustment will likely be students picking different majors. The ongoing challenges are raising concerns among recent graduates about their long-term financial stability and ability to achieve young adult milestones, the news agency reported.
