Latest news with #MichaelFeroli
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
5 Ways Recession Fears Have Impacted America's Spending Habits
Fears of a looming recession have cast a shadow on the U.S. economy for much of 2025, largely due to President Donald Trump's wide-reaching tariff plans. Those worries eased somewhat following a recent trade deal between the U.S. and China that brought hopes an all-out trade war can be avoided. Be Aware: Find Out: However, many financial and economic experts continue to issue warnings of a possible economic slowdown — including J.P. Morgan. A month ago, the investment banking firm put the probability of a recession at 60%. It has since lowered that probability to a 'toss up,' Fortune reported. Even so, J.P. Morgan Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli warned in a note that 'recession risks are still elevated.' The prospect of a coming recession has already changed some of the country's spending habits, according to a new report from CouponFollow, which helps shoppers save money by offering verified coupon codes and deals from thousands of online retailers. CouponFollow surveyed more than 1,000 U.S. adults to gauge how they're responding to economic uncertainty in 2025. One thing it found is that more than half (56%) of Americans have already started cutting back on spending due to recession concerns. Here are five ways recession fears have impacted American's spending habits, according to the survey. While 56% of respondents said they have already cut back on spending to prepare for a recession, another 21% said they plan to cut back and 9% said they might. Items they have cut back on include clothes, travel, transportation, medical/dental care, streaming services and fitness memberships. Read More: More than four in ten Americans (43%) have either bought fewer groceries or limited quantities of the groceries they normally buy. Forty percent have switched to store-brand products, while 38% are using coupons or discount codes more often. Nearly two-thirds (62%) of Americans have dined out less often or ordered less takeout due to recession fears. More than half (54%) are cooking at home more often. More than one-quarter (26%) of those surveyed have been 'pretending' to spend normally, even though they're cutting back. Gen Z consumers are the most likely to do this, at 40%. In order to cover everyday expenses, 29% of Americans have withdrawn money from their savings over the past six months. Here's how it breaks down by generation: Gen Z: 28% Millennials: 28% Gen X: 33% Baby boomers: 21% More From GOBankingRates The New Retirement Problem Boomers Are Facing The 10 Most Reliable SUVs of 2025 Sources Reuters, 'Brokerages scale back recession odds after U.S.-China trade truce' Fortune, 'JPMorgan lowers its recession odds as Trump strikes a temporary deal to drop tariffs on China' CouponFollow, 'Recession Money Mindset Report 2025' This article originally appeared on 5 Ways Recession Fears Have Impacted America's Spending Habits Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
5 Ways Recession Fears Have Impacted America's Spending Habits
Fears of a looming recession have cast a shadow on the U.S. economy for much of 2025, largely due to President Donald Trump's wide-reaching tariff plans. Those worries eased somewhat following a recent trade deal between the U.S. and China that brought hopes an all-out trade war can be avoided. Be Aware: Find Out: However, many financial and economic experts continue to issue warnings of a possible economic slowdown — including J.P. Morgan. A month ago, the investment banking firm put the probability of a recession at 60%. It has since lowered that probability to a 'toss up,' Fortune reported. Even so, J.P. Morgan Chief U.S. Economist Michael Feroli warned in a note that 'recession risks are still elevated.' The prospect of a coming recession has already changed some of the country's spending habits, according to a new report from CouponFollow, which helps shoppers save money by offering verified coupon codes and deals from thousands of online retailers. CouponFollow surveyed more than 1,000 U.S. adults to gauge how they're responding to economic uncertainty in 2025. One thing it found is that more than half (56%) of Americans have already started cutting back on spending due to recession concerns. Here are five ways recession fears have impacted American's spending habits, according to the survey. While 56% of respondents said they have already cut back on spending to prepare for a recession, another 21% said they plan to cut back and 9% said they might. Items they have cut back on include clothes, travel, transportation, medical/dental care, streaming services and fitness memberships. Read More: More than four in ten Americans (43%) have either bought fewer groceries or limited quantities of the groceries they normally buy. Forty percent have switched to store-brand products, while 38% are using coupons or discount codes more often. Nearly two-thirds (62%) of Americans have dined out less often or ordered less takeout due to recession fears. More than half (54%) are cooking at home more often. More than one-quarter (26%) of those surveyed have been 'pretending' to spend normally, even though they're cutting back. Gen Z consumers are the most likely to do this, at 40%. In order to cover everyday expenses, 29% of Americans have withdrawn money from their savings over the past six months. Here's how it breaks down by generation: Gen Z: 28% Millennials: 28% Gen X: 33% Baby boomers: 21% More From GOBankingRates The New Retirement Problem Boomers Are Facing The 10 Most Reliable SUVs of 2025 Sources Reuters, 'Brokerages scale back recession odds after U.S.-China trade truce' Fortune, 'JPMorgan lowers its recession odds as Trump strikes a temporary deal to drop tariffs on China' CouponFollow, 'Recession Money Mindset Report 2025' This article originally appeared on 5 Ways Recession Fears Have Impacted America's Spending Habits
Yahoo
18-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariffs are falling faster than Wall Street expected: Chart of the Week
Tariffs remain the story of the stock market right now. Early Monday morning, a 90-day tariff pause between the US and China set the tone for the week in markets. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed the week up around 5%, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied around 7%. Both major indexes are now higher than they were before Trump escalated the trade war by pushing tariffs to their highest level in a century. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy And as our Chart of the Week shows, the US effective tariff rate has been moving lower over the past month as stocks have rallied. At 14.4%, the effective US tariff rate is nearly back to its pre-"Liberation Day" level too. So perhaps, taken at that simplistic level, it makes sense that stocks have soared so much in the past month, given that the headwind that sent markets lower has eased significantly. But in markets, the news isn't just about what's said. It's also about how what was said matches investor expectations. On April 2, tariffs negatively surprised as Trump's announcements were, as we wrote at the time, "worse than expected." Well, the latest round of tariff announcements brought up a counter phrase: "Better than feared." In a note to clients on May 9, the day before trade negotiations between the US and China were set to begin, JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli estimated tariffs on Chinese goods could fall to "at least near 60% for now." This would've lowered Feroli's estimated effective tariff rate to 17%. Instead, a 30% tariff rate pushed Feroli's overall tariff estimate down to the 14.4% seen in our chart. This was enough for Feroli to no longer call for a recession in the US this year. Since tariffs are like a tax on the consumer, Feroli reasoned the tariff rollback was equivalent to a $300 billion "tax cut" for Americans. "The rolling back of this tax should provide some relief to consumer spending, and in our modeling is enough to tip the second-half growth outlook from one of modest contraction to one of modest growth," Feroli wrote. Goldman Sachs had expected China tariffs to land around 54%. Again, they came in better than expected. For the equity strategy team at Goldman Sachs, this was a key contributing factor in boosting the year-end S&P 500 target from 5,900 to 6,100. Goldman also holds a 12-month target of 6,500. The prevailing market hope over the past week is that the success Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had in Geneva, Switzerland, last weekend is the start of something more. The bulls are betting on more deals, and potentially even a lower effective tariff rate than our Chart of the Week shows. All of which keeps the market's focus squarely on tariffs — and whether the next move in the discussions is in line with, better, or worse than expectations. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
18-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariffs are falling more quickly than Wall Street expected
Tariffs remain the story of the stock market right now. Early Monday morning, a 90-day tariff pause between the US and China set the tone for the week in markets. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed the week up around 5%, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied around 7%. Both major indexes are now higher than they were before Trump escalated the trade war by pushing tariffs to their highest level in a century. And as our Chart of the Week shows, the US effective tariff rate has been moving lower over the past month as stocks have rallied. At 14.4%, the effective US tariff rate is nearly back to its pre-"Liberation Day" level too. So perhaps, taken at that simplistic level, it makes sense that stocks have soared so much in the past month, given that the headwind that sent markets lower has eased significantly. But in markets, the news isn't just about what's said. It's also about how what was said matches investor expectations. On April 2, tariffs negatively surprised as Trump's announcements were, as we wrote at the time, "worse than expected." Well, the latest round of tariff announcements brought up a counter phrase: "Better than feared." In a note to clients on May 9, the day before trade negotiations between the US and China were set to begin, JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli estimated tariffs on Chinese goods could fall to "at least near 60% for now." This would've lowered Feroli's estimated effective tariff rate to 17%. Instead, a 30% tariff rate pushed Feroli's overall tariff estimate down to the 14.4% seen in our chart. This was enough for Feroli to no longer call for a recession in the US this year. Since tariffs are like a tax on the consumer, Feroli reasoned the tariff rollback was equivalent to a $300 billion "tax cut" for Americans. "The rolling back of this tax should provide some relief to consumer spending, and in our modeling is enough to tip the second-half growth outlook from one of modest contraction to one of modest growth," Feroli wrote. Goldman Sachs had expected China tariffs to land around 54%. Again, they came in better than expected. For the equity strategy team at Goldman Sachs, this was a key contributing factor in boosting the year-end S&P 500 target from 5,900 to 6,100. Goldman also holds a 12-month target of 6,500. The prevailing market hope over the past week is that the success Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had in Geneva, Switzerland, last weekend is the start of something more. The bulls are betting on more deals, and potentially even a lower effective tariff rate than our Chart of the Week shows. All of which keeps the market's focus squarely on tariffs — and whether the next move in the discussions is in line with, better, or worse than expectations. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices
Yahoo
17-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariffs are falling faster than Wall Street expected: Chart of the Week
Tariffs remain the story of the stock market right now. Early Monday morning, a 90-day tariff pause between the US and China set the tone for the week in markets. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) closed the week up around 5%, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied around 7%. Both major indexes are now higher than they were before Trump escalated the trade war by pushing tariffs to their highest level in a century. By subscribing, you are agreeing to Yahoo's Terms and Privacy Policy And as our Chart of the Week shows, the US effective tariff rate has been moving lower over the past month as stocks have rallied. At 14.4%, the effective US tariff rate is nearly back to its pre-"Liberation Day" level too. So perhaps, taken at that simplistic level, it makes sense that stocks have soared so much in the past month, given that the headwind that sent markets lower has eased significantly. But in markets, the news isn't just about what's said. It's also about how what was said matches investor expectations. On April 2, tariffs negatively surprised as Trump's announcements were, as we wrote at the time, "worse than expected." Well, the latest round of tariff announcements brought up a counter phrase: "Better than feared." In a note to clients on May 9, the day before trade negotiations between the US and China were set to begin, JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli estimated tariffs on Chinese goods could fall to "at least near 60% for now." This would've lowered Feroli's estimated effective tariff rate to 17%. Instead, a 30% tariff rate pushed Feroli's overall tariff estimate down to the 14.4% seen in our chart. This was enough for Feroli to no longer call for a recession in the US this year. Since tariffs are like a tax on the consumer, Feroli reasoned the tariff rollback was equivalent to a $300 billion "tax cut" for Americans. "The rolling back of this tax should provide some relief to consumer spending, and in our modeling is enough to tip the second-half growth outlook from one of modest contraction to one of modest growth," Feroli wrote. Goldman Sachs had expected China tariffs to land around 54%. Again, they came in better than expected. For the equity strategy team at Goldman Sachs, this was a key contributing factor in boosting the year-end S&P 500 target from 5,900 to 6,100. Goldman also holds a 12-month target of 6,500. The prevailing market hope over the past week is that the success Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had in Geneva, Switzerland, last weekend is the start of something more. The bulls are betting on more deals, and potentially even a lower effective tariff rate than our Chart of the Week shows. All of which keeps the market's focus squarely on tariffs — and whether the next move in the discussions is in line with, better, or worse than expectations. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
