Latest news with #MichaelHartnett
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bank of America shares an eye-popping chart showing a potential stock-market bubble: 'It better be different this time'
AI optimism is driving the S&P 500 price-to-book ratio to records, surpassing dot-com levels. High valuations reflect expectations for AI-driven earnings. While the ratio's level is head-turning, it doesn't necessitate that stocks are in a bubble. Stock-market bulls convinced of the power of AI to transform the economy often shrug off comparisons to the dot-com bubble a quarter century ago. The real profits are already showing up, unlike in the early days of the internet boom — so it is different this time, the thinking goes. But Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett has a message for these investors: "It better be different this time." Hartnett, who has often expressed skepticism of the market's bull run over the last few years, shared a head-turning chart that highlights just how optimistic investors have become about the impact AI will have. It shows the S&P 500's price-to-book ratio, which measures the total market cap of the index's constituents compared to their total assets minus liabilities. The valuation measure is at a record high of 5.3, topping the 5.1 level seen in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Other classic valuation measures show market froth relative to history. For instance, Hartnett also shared a chart showing the S&P 500's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio. Except for August 2020, it's at the highest level since the dot-com era. And the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which measures current prices against a 10-year rolling average of earnings, is at similar levels to 1929, 2000, and 2021. High valuations reflect high expectations for future earnings. Sometimes those expectations turn out to be too elevated, and prices correct, but they don't necessitate a bubble scenario. So far, many AI firms have continually beat earnings expectations, suggesting the optimism could be justified. Valuations are also better predictors of average long-term returns than near-term performance, and views on Wall Street on where the market goes in the months ahead differ. Though there are calls for caution, many strategists continue to raise their year-end S&P 500 price targets. Earlier this week, Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, said the market is in the "best investing environment ever" thanks to factors like strong demand for stocks, looming rate cuts, and recent boosts in productivity and earnings growth. If the market does start to unwind, however, Hartnett said he sees bonds and non-US stocks benefiting. Examples of funds that offer exposure to these trades include the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU). Read the original article on Business Insider Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bank of America shares an eye-popping chart showing a potential stock-market bubble: 'It better be different this time'
AI optimism is driving the S&P 500 price-to-book ratio to records, surpassing dot-com levels. High valuations reflect expectations for AI-driven earnings. While the ratio's level is head-turning, it doesn't necessitate that stocks are in a bubble. Stock-market bulls convinced of the power of AI to transform the economy often shrug off comparisons to the dot-com bubble a quarter century ago. The real profits are already showing up, unlike in the early days of the internet boom — so it is different this time, the thinking goes. But Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett has a message for these investors: "It better be different this time." Hartnett, who has often expressed skepticism of the market's bull run over the last few years, shared a head-turning chart that highlights just how optimistic investors have become about the impact AI will have. It shows the S&P 500's price-to-book ratio, which measures the total market cap of the index's constituents compared to their total assets minus liabilities. The valuation measure is at a record high of 5.3, topping the 5.1 level seen in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Other classic valuation measures show market froth relative to history. For instance, Hartnett also shared a chart showing the S&P 500's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio. Except for August 2020, it's at the highest level since the dot-com era. And the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which measures current prices against a 10-year rolling average of earnings, is at similar levels to 1929, 2000, and 2021. High valuations reflect high expectations for future earnings. Sometimes those expectations turn out to be too elevated, and prices correct, but they don't necessitate a bubble scenario. So far, many AI firms have continually beat earnings expectations, suggesting the optimism could be justified. Valuations are also better predictors of average long-term returns than near-term performance, and views on Wall Street on where the market goes in the months ahead differ. Though there are calls for caution, many strategists continue to raise their year-end S&P 500 price targets. Earlier this week, Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, said the market is in the "best investing environment ever" thanks to factors like strong demand for stocks, looming rate cuts, and recent boosts in productivity and earnings growth. If the market does start to unwind, however, Hartnett said he sees bonds and non-US stocks benefiting. Examples of funds that offer exposure to these trades include the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU). Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bank of America shares an eye-popping chart showing a potential stock-market bubble: 'It better be different this time'
AI optimism is driving the S&P 500 price-to-book ratio to records, surpassing dot-com levels. High valuations reflect expectations for AI-driven earnings. While the ratio's level is head-turning, it doesn't necessitate that stocks are in a bubble. Stock-market bulls convinced of the power of AI to transform the economy often shrug off comparisons to the dot-com bubble a quarter century ago. The real profits are already showing up, unlike in the early days of the internet boom — so it is different this time, the thinking goes. But Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett has a message for these investors: "It better be different this time." Hartnett, who has often expressed skepticism of the market's bull run over the last few years, shared a head-turning chart that highlights just how optimistic investors have become about the impact AI will have. It shows the S&P 500's price-to-book ratio, which measures the total market cap of the index's constituents compared to their total assets minus liabilities. The valuation measure is at a record high of 5.3, topping the 5.1 level seen in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Other classic valuation measures show market froth relative to history. For instance, Hartnett also shared a chart showing the S&P 500's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio. Except for August 2020, it's at the highest level since the dot-com era. And the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which measures current prices against a 10-year rolling average of earnings, is at similar levels to 1929, 2000, and 2021. High valuations reflect high expectations for future earnings. Sometimes those expectations turn out to be too elevated, and prices correct, but they don't necessitate a bubble scenario. So far, many AI firms have continually beat earnings expectations, suggesting the optimism could be justified. Valuations are also better predictors of average long-term returns than near-term performance, and views on Wall Street on where the market goes in the months ahead differ. Though there are calls for caution, many strategists continue to raise their year-end S&P 500 price targets. Earlier this week, Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, said the market is in the "best investing environment ever" thanks to factors like strong demand for stocks, looming rate cuts, and recent boosts in productivity and earnings growth. If the market does start to unwind, however, Hartnett said he sees bonds and non-US stocks benefiting. Examples of funds that offer exposure to these trades include the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU). Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
Business Insider
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Bank of America shares an eye-popping chart showing a potential stock-market bubble: 'It better be different this time'
Stock-market bulls convinced of the power of AI to transform the economy often shrug off comparisons to the dot-com bubble a quarter century ago. The real profits are already showing up, unlike in the early days of the internet boom — so it is different this time, the thinking goes. But Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett has a message for these investors: "It better be different this time." Hartnett, who has often expressed skepticism of the market's bull run over the last few years, shared a head-turning chart that highlights just how optimistic investors have become about the impact AI will have. It shows the S&P 500's price-to-book ratio, which measures the total market cap of the index's constituents compared to their total assets minus liabilities. The valuation measure is at a record high of 5.3, topping the 5.1 level seen in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Other classic valuation measures show market froth relative to history. For instance, Hartnett also shared a chart showing the S&P 500's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio. Except for August 2020, it's at the highest level since the dot-com era. And the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, which measures current prices against a 10-year rolling average of earnings, is at similar levels to 1929, 2000, and 2021. GuruFocus High valuations reflect high expectations for future earnings. Sometimes those expectations turn out to be too elevated, and prices correct, but they don't necessitate a bubble scenario. So far, many AI firms have continually beat earnings expectations, suggesting the optimism could be justified. Valuations are also better predictors of average long-term returns than near-term performance, and views on Wall Street on where the market goes in the months ahead differ. Though there are calls for caution, many strategists continue to raise their year-end S&P 500 price targets. Earlier this week, Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock, said the market is in the "best investing environment ever" thanks to factors like strong demand for stocks, looming rate cuts, and recent boosts in productivity and earnings growth. If the market does start to unwind, however, Hartnett said he sees bonds and non-US stocks benefiting. Examples of funds that offer exposure to these trades include the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU).
CNBC
3 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
'It better be different this time': BofA's Hartnett says the S&P's price-to-book valuation is higher than dotcom bubble top
The stock market's valuation is giving dotcom bubble vibes. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett pointed out that the S & P 500 is trading at 5.3 times its price-to-book value. His data shows that valuation is higher than that in March 2000 — when the internet bubble peaked and began to burst, eventually sending the benchmark into a bear market. FactSet data also puts the index's valuation near levels not seen since the late 1990s dotcom bubble. Price-to-book measures the value of a company's assets minus its liabilities. "It better be different this time," Hartnett wrote in a Thursday note to clients. The sky-high valuation comes as investors continue to pile into artificial intelligence-related stocks such as Nvidia , while expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts have skyrocketed thanks to inflation data released earlier this week. The S & P 500 eked out another record close on Thursday and is headed for its fourth weekly gain in five weeks. Hartnett gave several reasons why the market may not suffer the same fate it did a quarter century ago, when similar valuations were present. Among them are investor aversion to bonds, millennials and Gen-Z'ers gravitating more to stocks than real estate to build wealth and, of course, the AI boom. But the problem is that only a handful of megacap tech stocks are driving the bulk of the S & P 500's latest run to all-time highs. Should any of them falter (think of Meta Platforms , Nvidia, Amazon or Microsoft ), it will drag down the S & P 500 — possibly sparking a similar move to the one at the turn of the century. If it's "not different this time, bonds get some love, international stocks > S & P500 continues," Hartnett said.
